All things CoronaVirus

[MDlaxfan76]

You read alot so you might have already read this but this article is an interesting primer on what we might see as the type of immunity resulting from this virus: https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/fou ... -covid-19/

Thanks for that article Bart. It ties into my questioning yesterday about countries that are believed to "have done better" and what that looks like moving forward. As I suggested, just b/c said country appears to have done it better, does not mean they solved anything. If more people did not have it, then they are ripe for the pickens' and it starts all over....just as Old Salt's links indicate below ...it may be coming back for those that hunkered down, ran and hid.

Seems the more people that get it earlier, the better off everyone becomes. And of the 4 immunity scenarios in that article suggests...our immunity system is the key common thread.

I'm puzzled.

Could you explain the basis for the bolded statement...which countries do you think are "better off"? Are you basing this on total deaths to date as a % of population? Or daily death trends now as a % of population?

Or are you saying that the more people who have gotten Covid (ahh well, some have died) is the measure of how "better off" a country is now?

It is indeed logical that a country which has prevented spread to many of its population so far nevertheless remains vulnerable, at least until a vaccine or therapeutic measures can be introduced into the mix.

But that's the whole point, buying time to get to other ways to build immunity or to find therapeutic measures, before spread kills millions...

You must've overlooked the conversation yesterday when ggait and I where going back and forth you sarcastically replied.

I am not claiming any country has done better, quite the opposite....calling out everyone that has said the US has done the worst and if we only acted like Country X.....you fit that demo. And yet, you all praise other countries for opening back up that originally ran and hid....which means they are indeed vulnerable. So I ask, why would they give their citizens, those that barely contracted it, the green like to openly go out all of a sudden? And as Old Salt's article infer, it is coming back. I also wonder if those same countries are performing their testing and statistical reporting differently.

My point, is the one you agree with (bold/red).

Not sure when or where I was sarcastic, but let's leave that aside.

I don't think we have done the "worst" of any and all counties, but I'm hard pressed to identify many of our peers (in terms of wealth, strength of health system, etc) which have done worse, indeed it's far easier to identify those which have had lower deaths as a % of their population and which are now experiencing lower deaths per day as % of their population.

Please show me the metric by which you think the US is "better off" than peer countries? Which countries?

Which countries have I praised for "opening back up"? Do you mean that I'm looking at countries like China and South Korea and New Zealand or Germany or...which indeed "closed down" longer and/or harder than we did in the US and have now indeed "opened up" to at least some extent more than we have? And have also had much lower economic damage than we have had here in the US?

Which ones do you think I've been praising? And why?

This is a brutal pandemic, which is far, far from over. I've been quite careful to describe it as a 'long distance race'.

We don't know yet how everything will play out.

But that doesn't mean that we're totally ignorant, that we have learned nothing at all.

The dynamics of how the virus is transmitted have been predominantly understood since March or at least April, and those countries which made the right set of early moves to drive N below 1 have lost far lower % of their population to the virus, with far lower overall infection rates. We understand this now, these many months later.

Meanwhile, the scientists have been hard at work to develop vaccines, and significant improvements have been made therapeutically, lowering the death outcome among hospital admitted patients. Far from enough, but quite significant. and the scientists are working to provide better therapeutic answers.

If they want to maintain these lower transmission rates, they need to keep N below 1. That's not going to be easy, but it's been shown to be possible to do so with test, trace and isolate...IF the overall incidence is low enough that rapid testing, tracing, and isolating can be ubiquitous. Miss that, and the spread can catch fire.

We're seeing this play out in various countries that have "opened up" relative to where they were, relaxing somewhat. They are typically needing to scramble to test, trace and isolate in response to small outbreaks...whether they can do so effectively remains to be seen, and surely there will be those that fail, but it looks like most of these countries will continue to re-squelch transmission rates. But the virus is not going to simply go away altogether. there will be outbreaks, at least until we have an effective, widely distributed vaccine...and that's if the virus doesn't evolve faster than vaccines can choke it off.

Now, if an effective vaccine is NOT successfully developed and distributed, and/or therapies are never highly effective, this challenge will go much, much longer. The public policy question then is whether the 'flattening the curve' necessary to prevent health systems from being over run, food systems collapsing, triggering total social breakdown has been worth it, even if we have to maintain that 'flattening' for a long time.

But some countries took a quite different early approach than the sorts described above. Some denied whether the virus was a serious threat, likened it to just another flu, scoffed at its virulence, put the economic interests of the super rich first and foremost in policy decisions. Think Brazil. For awhile the UK. Russia. And yes, the US. And a few others.

And then there are those countries with little health system capacity, with immense poverty, sometimes rife with war and other overwhelming public health threats. I don't think we need to compare the US to those situations, but indeed some have suffered more than the US. Brazil is a bit of a double whammy, deep poverty plus a kleptocrat nutcase as a political leader...

[MDlaxfan76]

You read alot so you might have already read this but this article is an interesting primer on what we might see as the type of immunity resulting from this virus: https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/fou ... -covid-19/

Thanks for that article Bart. It ties into my questioning yesterday about countries that are believed to "have done better" and what that looks like moving forward. As I suggested, just b/c said country appears to have done it better, does not mean they solved anything. If more people did not have it, then they are ripe for the pickens' and it starts all over....just as Old Salt's links indicate below ...it may be coming back for those that hunkered down, ran and hid.

Seems the more people that get it earlier, the better off everyone becomes. And of the 4 immunity scenarios in that article suggests...our immunity system is the key common thread.

I don’t think the timing effects much. In part cause we do not know for certain if those who might be reinfected are still capable of spreading the virus. Running and hiding, as you put it, is supposed to buy time so therapeutics can be developed.

thanks. i hadn't seen that, interesting. have seen articles similar.
i think the last several paragraphs will be in place no matter what (and believe they're in place today)... individual reactions now and subsequent are just that... wildly individual. even beyond the bounds of asymptomatic/symptomatic/severe. until it's squashed entirely, which may take a very effective vaccine (questionable).

below is a response i had from last night that somehow didn't post. i do think timing has mattered w respect to what a country is doing and other factors:

You avoided other portion of my post...why?

YA -- I think the Swedes are in the same place now as all the other Euro countries and for the same reasons.

I don't think any of those countries has herd immunity. All bent the curve to low levels by serious social distancing.

And all could experience a virus resurgence in the future (and probably will) if they back off the SD too much too fast.

The only things different about Sweden's experience seem to be that they (like the UK) briefly/initially tried to let the virus run. Then backed off that and went SD. And they got SD compliance through voluntary rather than mandatory means.

Is that what you were asking about?

My point, which JHU and MD also avoided when I cited them in the quote earlier..I substituted Sweden for COUNTRY X....

ggait....is your point they (COUNTRY X) cleared CV-19 because they hunkered down and hid from it or that Herd Immunity solved it. If the former...then that implies they are ripe to get CV-19 if they just ran and hid, if the latter then that implies herd immunity works and you are for it.

Meaning CV-19 is still around, so why are (COUNTRY X) folks not getting sick? Did they also completely isolate their borders and no one can enter of leave?

So if we are going to praise another country for doing "it" right, what did they do so they will not get it again and can get back to normal? Remember, that means they are either immune to it b/c they already had it, OR they will have to lock down again when it returns. Otherwise herd immunity is the only way...short of medical intervention. OR and this is a big OR....they have changed the way they test and report.

my take is italy, spain, france and maybe others are now into or will be engaged in some sloppy seconds as they are opening up until they burn it off. even from very low levels. where that ends up and to what degree is anyone's guess, dependent on a lot of things... health of pop, mitigation efforts, immunity, timing of vaccine/therapeutic help.

sweden looks good to go for a while. they didn't lock down, or wear masks. they social distanced early, and planned poorly around nursing homes... but look to have the question of immunity and scope to be the key driver for the near term anyway.

when it's all analyzed, i do think you'll see timing had played a major role. here in the u.s. our giving the virus enough rope to keep hanging us (and minimizing effectiveness of some efforts like testing, tracing) may turn into a full intermediate term burn that a place like sweden got thru quickly.

As I think ggait argued early on, the Sweden course will be an interesting experiment that will only be fully and fairly evaluated when the full race is run.

However, his point, and mine, has been that in the nearer term they have lost a higher % of their population than their immediate peer Scandinavian countries without material benefit to their economy. But that's now, not the full 'race'. So, while they haven't 'done as well' as their immediate peers, they may ultimately appear better, especially if a vaccine etc does not come to fruition soon...the longer it does not, the more likely that the Swedish approach will play out relatively better than where they've been.

The additional point has been that their reality was never a 'let'er rip' approach though there was some early expressions about herd immunity and not mandating social distancing. But their reality, as measured in all sorts of ways, has been that they have done lots of social distancing and have had low movement in and around the country. They publicly encouraged this and the avoidance of super spreader events, so there was little if any denial of the virus' lethality. So, high social compliance has been their reality.

[wgdsr]

You read alot so you might have already read this but this article is an interesting primer on what we might see as the type of immunity resulting from this virus: https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/fou ... -covid-19/

Thanks for that article Bart. It ties into my questioning yesterday about countries that are believed to "have done better" and what that looks like moving forward. As I suggested, just b/c said country appears to have done it better, does not mean they solved anything. If more people did not have it, then they are ripe for the pickens' and it starts all over....just as Old Salt's links indicate below ...it may be coming back for those that hunkered down, ran and hid.

Seems the more people that get it earlier, the better off everyone becomes. And of the 4 immunity scenarios in that article suggests...our immunity system is the key common thread.

I don’t think the timing effects much. In part cause we do not know for certain if those who might be reinfected are still capable of spreading the virus. Running and hiding, as you put it, is supposed to buy time so therapeutics can be developed.

thanks. i hadn't seen that, interesting. have seen articles similar.
i think the last several paragraphs will be in place no matter what (and believe they're in place today)... individual reactions now and subsequent are just that... wildly individual. even beyond the bounds of asymptomatic/symptomatic/severe. until it's squashed entirely, which may take a very effective vaccine (questionable).

below is a response i had from last night that somehow didn't post. i do think timing has mattered w respect to what a country is doing and other factors:

You avoided other portion of my post...why?

YA -- I think the Swedes are in the same place now as all the other Euro countries and for the same reasons.

I don't think any of those countries has herd immunity. All bent the curve to low levels by serious social distancing.

And all could experience a virus resurgence in the future (and probably will) if they back off the SD too much too fast.

The only things different about Sweden's experience seem to be that they (like the UK) briefly/initially tried to let the virus run. Then backed off that and went SD. And they got SD compliance through voluntary rather than mandatory means.

Is that what you were asking about?

My point, which JHU and MD also avoided when I cited them in the quote earlier..I substituted Sweden for COUNTRY X....

ggait....is your point they (COUNTRY X) cleared CV-19 because they hunkered down and hid from it or that Herd Immunity solved it. If the former...then that implies they are ripe to get CV-19 if they just ran and hid, if the latter then that implies herd immunity works and you are for it.

Meaning CV-19 is still around, so why are (COUNTRY X) folks not getting sick? Did they also completely isolate their borders and no one can enter of leave?

So if we are going to praise another country for doing "it" right, what did they do so they will not get it again and can get back to normal? Remember, that means they are either immune to it b/c they already had it, OR they will have to lock down again when it returns. Otherwise herd immunity is the only way...short of medical intervention. OR and this is a big OR....they have changed the way they test and report.

my take is italy, spain, france and maybe others are now into or will be engaged in some sloppy seconds as they are opening up until they burn it off. even from very low levels. where that ends up and to what degree is anyone's guess, dependent on a lot of things... health of pop, mitigation efforts, immunity, timing of vaccine/therapeutic help.

sweden looks good to go for a while. they didn't lock down, or wear masks. they social distanced early, and planned poorly around nursing homes... but look to have the question of immunity and scope to be the key driver for the near term anyway.

when it's all analyzed, i do think you'll see timing had played a major role. here in the u.s. our giving the virus enough rope to keep hanging us (and minimizing effectiveness of some efforts like testing, tracing) may turn into a full intermediate term burn that a place like sweden got thru quickly.

As I think ggait argued early on, the Sweden course will be an interesting experiment that will only be fully and fairly evaluated when the full race is run.

However, his point, and mine, has been that in the nearer term they have lost a higher % of their population than their immediate peer Scandinavian countries without material benefit to their economy. But that's now, not the full 'race'. So, while they haven't 'done as well' as their immediate peers, they may ultimately appear better, especially if a vaccine etc does not come to fruition soon...the longer it does not, the more likely that the Swedish approach will play out relatively better than where they've been.

The additional point has been that their reality was never a 'let'er rip' approach though there was some early expressions about herd immunity and not mandating social distancing. But their reality, as measured in all sorts of ways, has been that they have done lots of social distancing and have had low movement in and around the country. They publicly encouraged this and the avoidance of super spreader events, so there was little if any denial of the virus' lethality. So, high social compliance has been their reality.

some here is accurate, other debatable.
firstly, pretty sure i'm the one that's been saying over and over and over about sweden you can evaluate now, but the full eval comes at the end of the game.
here is the mobility index for a number of global cities, a proxy for distancing:
https://citymapper.com/cmi

make of it what you will. stockholm is up to 70%. from low 30s high 20s some time ago. their "low movement" is now less movement, but not low. you'll also notice all the u.s. cities at the low end. which speaks to where we are with respect to us being "opened up" (we're not) and the idea that we're not taking it serious ("letting 'er rip").

lockdowns produced mobilities in single digits up to say 10+% around the globe.

for sweden, we also don't know what economic impact is settled yet, it is early. but it does look like they'll do a lot better than a lot of europe (and us). and 2 of the 3 "peer" countries that people like to cite have a population density i think about half of sweden. still, at this point, it looks like those peer countries may finish better on the death toll (i'm interested in excess deaths by year end) as from what i've read they are largely healthy populations and certainly sweden could've done better in at least one aspect that was deadly as they allowed for some infection spread.

[MDlaxfan76]

You read alot so you might have already read this but this article is an interesting primer on what we might see as the type of immunity resulting from this virus: https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/fou ... -covid-19/

Thanks for that article Bart. It ties into my questioning yesterday about countries that are believed to "have done better" and what that looks like moving forward. As I suggested, just b/c said country appears to have done it better, does not mean they solved anything. If more people did not have it, then they are ripe for the pickens' and it starts all over....just as Old Salt's links indicate below ...it may be coming back for those that hunkered down, ran and hid.

Seems the more people that get it earlier, the better off everyone becomes. And of the 4 immunity scenarios in that article suggests...our immunity system is the key common thread.

I don’t think the timing effects much. In part cause we do not know for certain if those who might be reinfected are still capable of spreading the virus. Running and hiding, as you put it, is supposed to buy time so therapeutics can be developed.

thanks. i hadn't seen that, interesting. have seen articles similar.
i think the last several paragraphs will be in place no matter what (and believe they're in place today)... individual reactions now and subsequent are just that... wildly individual. even beyond the bounds of asymptomatic/symptomatic/severe. until it's squashed entirely, which may take a very effective vaccine (questionable).

below is a response i had from last night that somehow didn't post. i do think timing has mattered w respect to what a country is doing and other factors:

You avoided other portion of my post...why?

YA -- I think the Swedes are in the same place now as all the other Euro countries and for the same reasons.

I don't think any of those countries has herd immunity. All bent the curve to low levels by serious social distancing.

And all could experience a virus resurgence in the future (and probably will) if they back off the SD too much too fast.

The only things different about Sweden's experience seem to be that they (like the UK) briefly/initially tried to let the virus run. Then backed off that and went SD. And they got SD compliance through voluntary rather than mandatory means.

Is that what you were asking about?

My point, which JHU and MD also avoided when I cited them in the quote earlier..I substituted Sweden for COUNTRY X....

ggait....is your point they (COUNTRY X) cleared CV-19 because they hunkered down and hid from it or that Herd Immunity solved it. If the former...then that implies they are ripe to get CV-19 if they just ran and hid, if the latter then that implies herd immunity works and you are for it.

Meaning CV-19 is still around, so why are (COUNTRY X) folks not getting sick? Did they also completely isolate their borders and no one can enter of leave?

So if we are going to praise another country for doing "it" right, what did they do so they will not get it again and can get back to normal? Remember, that means they are either immune to it b/c they already had it, OR they will have to lock down again when it returns. Otherwise herd immunity is the only way...short of medical intervention. OR and this is a big OR....they have changed the way they test and report.

my take is italy, spain, france and maybe others are now into or will be engaged in some sloppy seconds as they are opening up until they burn it off. even from very low levels. where that ends up and to what degree is anyone's guess, dependent on a lot of things... health of pop, mitigation efforts, immunity, timing of vaccine/therapeutic help.

sweden looks good to go for a while. they didn't lock down, or wear masks. they social distanced early, and planned poorly around nursing homes... but look to have the question of immunity and scope to be the key driver for the near term anyway.

when it's all analyzed, i do think you'll see timing had played a major role. here in the u.s. our giving the virus enough rope to keep hanging us (and minimizing effectiveness of some efforts like testing, tracing) may turn into a full intermediate term burn that a place like sweden got thru quickly.

As I think ggait argued early on, the Sweden course will be an interesting experiment that will only be fully and fairly evaluated when the full race is run.

However, his point, and mine, has been that in the nearer term they have lost a higher % of their population than their immediate peer Scandinavian countries without material benefit to their economy. But that's now, not the full 'race'. So, while they haven't 'done as well' as their immediate peers, they may ultimately appear better, especially if a vaccine etc does not come to fruition soon...the longer it does not, the more likely that the Swedish approach will play out relatively better than where they've been.

The additional point has been that their reality was never a 'let'er rip' approach though there was some early expressions about herd immunity and not mandating social distancing. But their reality, as measured in all sorts of ways, has been that they have done lots of social distancing and have had low movement in and around the country. They publicly encouraged this and the avoidance of super spreader events, so there was little if any denial of the virus' lethality. So, high social compliance has been their reality.

some here is accurate, other debatable.
firstly, pretty sure i'm the one that's been saying over and over and over about sweden you can evaluate now, but the full eval comes at the end of the game.
here is the mobility index for a number of global cities, a proxy for distancing:
https://citymapper.com/cmi

make of it what you will. stockholm is up to 70%. from low 30s high 20s some time ago. their "low movement" is now less movement, but not low. you'll also notice all the u.s. cities at the low end. which speaks to where we are with respect to us being "opened up" (we're not) and the idea that we're not taking it serious ("letting 'er rip").

lockdowns produced mobilities in single digits up to say 10+% around the globe.

for sweden, we also don't know what economic impact is settled yet, it is early. but it does look like they'll do a lot better than a lot of europe (and us). and 2 of the 3 "peer" countries that people like to cite have a population density i think about half of sweden. still, at this point, it looks like those peer countries may finish better on the death toll (i'm interested in excess deaths by year end) as from what i've read they are largely healthy populations and certainly sweden could've done better in at least one aspect that was deadly as they allowed for some infection spread.

I didn't characterize your argument as not similarly saying it's a long distance race, just pointing out that such point has been noted and agreed to from the beginning by some of us as well.

Yes, Sweden's mobility is up from where it was, but indeed substantially lower than normal...and I'd think that will remain the case unless outbreaks scare everyone again. Right now their incidence is low, N is below 1, so mobility is possible. Incidence goes up, expect a reaction.

I certainly didn't say that the US was a "let'er rip" country, definitely not in the hard hit initial cities. But we had a political head of state who minimized the risk, predicted it would go away, put economic interests of elites over the health of the people, scoffed at masks, etc and this got us off to a miserable start, squandering many of the advantages the US would normally have in meeting such a crisis.

But the President alone does not determine what people will or will not do, so not everyone followed his advice (if not example...he himself being frequently tested and those around him daily as well).

The problem in the US, however, is that so many did follow his advice, believed the nonsense that it was 'just another flu', that it would magically go away...many still believe this and continue to act stupidly and selfishly.

We needed better social compliance throughout the country and more resolve to maintain the shutdown long enough to actually get incidence levels low, and to be able to test, trace, and isolate to keep that incidence low and the N below 1...but again, our head of state called for premature opening, against the counsel of the experts, and too many followed that lead...

But it's not as if everyone has followed his lead...so, it's a mixed bag.
Most of us are indeed "serious", but too many remain not.

And meanwhile, test turn arounds remain way too long to be useful to test, trace, isolate strategies...and looks like the CDC has just given up on that path...

[jhu72]

Anti-masker tough guy threatens store employee with a gun, then later fires shots at officers.

[jhu72]

VT vs NC State football game cancelled. 27 NC State athletes have come down with rona.

[CU77]

How Mike Pence slowed down the coronavirus response

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/2 ... nse-401862

Heckuv a job Mikey!

[njbill]

Trump wanted to replace him with Nikki, but Nikki said no.

No way she wants to jump on this sinking ship.

[MDlaxfan76]

How Mike Pence slowed down the coronavirus response

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/2 ... nse-401862

Heckuv a job Mikey!

talk show host

[ggait]

when it's all analyzed, i do think you'll see timing had played a major role. here in the u.s. our giving the virus enough rope to keep hanging us (and minimizing effectiveness of some efforts like testing, tracing) may turn into a full intermediate term burn that a place like sweden got thru quickly.

I agree with this.

Places that were hit hard early (Italy, Spain, UK, Sweden, NYC, Seattle, SF) got serious about SD and hammered the virus down to a low level and a problem that was of a manage-able size. Different places had different profiles (density, age demographics, etc.) and so would need different and bigger/smaller measures to get the virus pushed down.

Sweden actually had some pretty favorable demographics, which made their early bad results (primarily in senior facilities) quite notable. But once they got past that early screw up, they figured out what to do and did it. I'm skeptical that their current good situation has anything to do with herd immunity (I think it was just sufficient SD as with the other Euro countries), but we'll only know that for sure in retrospect.

Seems like the USA problem is that (since it is a big country) we never did enough to get the virus down everywhere. So we seem to be stuck at roughly 1,000 deaths a day coming from an evolving number of places -- NY and NJ come down, but then are replaced by SoCal, AZ, TX and FL. Then a new bunch of places get hot -- GA, TN, MS. Rinse and repeat.

We are stuck at about 50% of our April peak (for daily deaths). In contrast, all of our first world peers are down 90-95% from their peaks.

[jhu72]

People aren't paying attention to the hurricanes on the gulf coast. We had moron from Florida last week labeling them as liberal fear porn. Laura, the second to hit in the past 2 days, is due to come ashore later today at CAT 4 strength. It is going to cause tremendous damage to the gulf coast and inland. 20 ft plus storm surge. It is very unlikely this will not negatively impact the COVID pandemic spread. Medical Treatment Facilities are already highly stressed with COVID in this area. This is not going to be pretty.

[Typical Lax Dad]

when it's all analyzed, i do think you'll see timing had played a major role. here in the u.s. our giving the virus enough rope to keep hanging us (and minimizing effectiveness of some efforts like testing, tracing) may turn into a full intermediate term burn that a place like sweden got thru quickly.

I agree with this.

Places that were hit hard early (Italy, Spain, UK, Sweden, NYC, Seattle, SF) got serious about SD and hammered the virus down to a low level and a problem that was of a manage-able size. Different places had different profiles (density, age demographics, etc.) and so would need different and bigger/smaller measures to get the virus pushed down.

Sweden actually had some pretty favorable demographics, which made their early bad results (primarily in senior facilities) quite notable. But once they got past that early screw up, they figured out what to do and did it. I'm skeptical that their current good situation has anything to do with herd immunity (I think it was just sufficient SD as with the other Euro countries), but we'll only know that for sure in retrospect.

Seems like the USA problem is that (since it is a big country) we never did enough to get the virus down everywhere. So we seem to be stuck at roughly 1,000 deaths a day coming from an evolving number of places -- NY and NJ come down, but then are replaced by SoCal, AZ, TX and FL. Then a new bunch of places get hot -- GA, TN, MS. Rinse and repeat.

Yep.

[njbill]

People aren't paying attention to the hurricanes on the gulf coast. We had moron from Florida last week labeling them as liberal fear porn. Laura, the second to hit in the past 2 days, is due to come ashore later today at CAT 4 strength. It is going to cause tremendous damage to the gulf coast and inland. 20 ft plus storm surge. It is very unlikely this will not negatively impact the COVID pandemic spread. Medical Treatment Facilities are already highly stressed with COVID in this area. This is not going to be pretty.

The hurricanes were caused by the deep state trying to distract from the Republican convention. Just despicable.

[Typical Lax Dad]

People aren't paying attention to the hurricanes on the gulf coast. We had moron from Florida last week labeling them as liberal fear porn. Laura, the second to hit in the past 2 days, is due to come ashore later today at CAT 4 strength. It is going to cause tremendous damage to the gulf coast and inland. 20 ft plus storm surge. It is very unlikely this will not negatively impact the COVID pandemic spread. Medical Treatment Facilities are already highly stressed with COVID in this area. This is not going to be pretty.

The hurricanes were caused by the deep state trying to distract from the Republican convention. Just despicable.

Trump used his sharpie....it’s going to hit California.

[RedFromMI]

People aren't paying attention to the hurricanes on the gulf coast. We had moron from Florida last week labeling them as liberal fear porn. Laura, the second to hit in the past 2 days, is due to come ashore later today at CAT 4 strength. It is going to cause tremendous damage to the gulf coast and inland. 20 ft plus storm surge. It is very unlikely this will not negatively impact the COVID pandemic spread. Medical Treatment Facilities are already highly stressed with COVID in this area. This is not going to be pretty.

Here is what PB posted, as a reminder (from the Climate Change thread):

This thread isn't nearly hysterical enough!

Two semi-hurricanes plowing into the Florida panhandle and Texas on the same day next week.

Why aren't there more angst ridden posts telling us the earth is warming and we are all going to die?!?!?

Meanwhile, people who actually have seen a hurricane or two don't even care. Buy some water and booze, tie 'shite' down, feed the dogs, buy some gasoline. Nothing to it.

Only the Yankee transplants get their panties in a bunch and drive north to Georgia. I swear, how did the North ever win the Civil War?!?!? Can't hunt, can't shoot, lose every football game, need to tell you their 'preferred' pronouns...

[Typical Lax Dad]

People aren't paying attention to the hurricanes on the gulf coast. We had moron from Florida last week labeling them as liberal fear porn. Laura, the second to hit in the past 2 days, is due to come ashore later today at CAT 4 strength. It is going to cause tremendous damage to the gulf coast and inland. 20 ft plus storm surge. It is very unlikely this will not negatively impact the COVID pandemic spread. Medical Treatment Facilities are already highly stressed with COVID in this area. This is not going to be pretty.

Here is what PB posted, as a reminder (from the Climate Change thread):

This thread isn't nearly hysterical enough!

Two semi-hurricanes plowing into the Florida panhandle and Texas on the same day next week.

Why aren't there more angst ridden posts telling us the earth is warming and we are all going to die?!?!?

Meanwhile, people who actually have seen a hurricane or two don't even care. Buy some water and booze, tie 'shite' down, feed the dogs, buy some gasoline. Nothing to it.

Only the Yankee transplants get their panties in a bunch and drive north to Georgia. I swear, how did the North ever win the Civil War?!?!? Can't hunt, can't shoot, lose every football game, need to tell you their 'preferred' pronouns...

We won the civil war with folks like my great great grandfather putting some guys down. An American patriot.

[wgdsr]

when it's all analyzed, i do think you'll see timing had played a major role. here in the u.s. our giving the virus enough rope to keep hanging us (and minimizing effectiveness of some efforts like testing, tracing) may turn into a full intermediate term burn that a place like sweden got thru quickly.

I agree with this.

Places that were hit hard early (Italy, Spain, UK, Sweden, NYC, Seattle, SF) got serious about SD and hammered the virus down to a low level and a problem that was of a manage-able size. Different places had different profiles (density, age demographics, etc.) and so would need different and bigger/smaller measures to get the virus pushed down.

Sweden actually had some pretty favorable demographics, which made their early bad results (primarily in senior facilities) quite notable. But once they got past that early screw up, they figured out what to do and did it. I'm skeptical that their current good situation has anything to do with herd immunity (I think it was just sufficient SD as with the other Euro countries), but we'll only know that for sure in retrospect.

Seems like the USA problem is that (since it is a big country) we never did enough to get the virus down everywhere. So we seem to be stuck at roughly 1,000 deaths a day coming from an evolving number of places -- NY and NJ come down, but then are replaced by SoCal, AZ, TX and FL. Then a new bunch of places get hot -- GA, TN, MS. Rinse and repeat.

We are stuck at about 50% of our April peak (for daily deaths). In contrast, all of our first world peers are down 90-95% from their peaks.

as we're all educationally guessing...
sweden if not exhibit a is one of many, imo, that suggest a herd immunity profile being part or a very large part of slowing spread. no way of knowing for sure if it's lasting, and if then a second time around (reinfection) yields better results.. but again guesswork and past science suggests a good chance it will.

and then in the u.s.... as you note, such a large country... unless we were shutting down state borders across the country, to me it was likely other places needed to get hit. not saying it had to be the numbers we're at, don't know that. the optimistic view from there is we may be relatively close to burning through the majority of the country. at least for this round. some were early, some were relatively flat throughout, some low early and then popped... if we can get to 500 deaths per day asap that would be a win. and might be on par-ish with influenza/pneumonia deaths combo.
getting a little ahead myself, from there measures in toto of sd, masks, immunity population might be able to push it down substantially from there.

potential "natural immunity" (past coronaviruses or t-cells) aiding herd immunity that seemed plausible to me on here starting in may/early june, continues to get more play and research backing the possibility now several months later.

europe's 1st world final story may not be written yet. they weren't able to hold several hundred cases without allowing it to bloom many fold from that, but after a bump in their death tolls shortly, my expectation is they are shocked a little into controlling it with both measures and (potentially) some herd immunity helping.

one of sweden's tegnell's main theories was we're all going to end up in the same place. as they are a healthier population, his "same place" should in theory be better than some other places. which may mean the u.s. and some other first worlds have a ways to go. hopefully not too far.

[CU77]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was instructed by higher-ups within the Trump administration to modify its coronavirus testing guidelines this week to exclude people who do not have symptoms of Covid-19 — even if they have been recently exposed to the virus, according to two federal health officials.

One official said the directive came from the top down. Another said the guidelines were not written by the C.D.C. but were forced down.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/worl ... virus.html

Brilliant. Don't test to identify carriers and stop the spread.

Why not? Because positive test numbers will go up and that will look bad for Orange Duce.

Of course, more people will die later. But the trumpista hope is that the dying will happen mostly after the coronation ...

[Typical Lax Dad]

when it's all analyzed, i do think you'll see timing had played a major role. here in the u.s. our giving the virus enough rope to keep hanging us (and minimizing effectiveness of some efforts like testing, tracing) may turn into a full intermediate term burn that a place like sweden got thru quickly.

I agree with this.

Places that were hit hard early (Italy, Spain, UK, Sweden, NYC, Seattle, SF) got serious about SD and hammered the virus down to a low level and a problem that was of a manage-able size. Different places had different profiles (density, age demographics, etc.) and so would need different and bigger/smaller measures to get the virus pushed down.

Sweden actually had some pretty favorable demographics, which made their early bad results (primarily in senior facilities) quite notable. But once they got past that early screw up, they figured out what to do and did it. I'm skeptical that their current good situation has anything to do with herd immunity (I think it was just sufficient SD as with the other Euro countries), but we'll only know that for sure in retrospect.

Seems like the USA problem is that (since it is a big country) we never did enough to get the virus down everywhere. So we seem to be stuck at roughly 1,000 deaths a day coming from an evolving number of places -- NY and NJ come down, but then are replaced by SoCal, AZ, TX and FL. Then a new bunch of places get hot -- GA, TN, MS. Rinse and repeat.

We are stuck at about 50% of our April peak (for daily deaths). In contrast, all of our first world peers are down 90-95% from their peaks.

as we're all educationally guessing...
sweden if not exhibit a is one of many, imo, that suggest a herd immunity profile being part or a very large part of slowing spread. no way of knowing for sure if it's lasting, and if then a second time around (reinfection) yields better results.. but again guesswork and past science suggests a good chance it will.

and then in the u.s.... as you note, such a large country... unless we were shutting down state borders across the country, to me it was likely other places needed to get hit. not saying it had to be the numbers we're at, don't know that. the optimistic view from there is we may be relatively close to burning through the majority of the country. at least for this round. some were early, some were relatively flat throughout, some low early and then popped... if we can get to 500 deaths per day asap that would be a win. and might be on par-ish with influenza/pneumonia deaths combo.
getting a little ahead myself, from there measures in toto of sd, masks, immunity population might be able to push it down substantially from there.

potential "natural immunity" (past coronaviruses or t-cells) aiding herd immunity that seemed plausible to me on here starting in may/early june, continues to get more play and research backing the possibility now several months later.

europe's 1st world final story may not be written yet. they weren't able to hold several hundred cases without allowing it to bloom many fold from that, but after a bump in their death tolls shortly, my expectation is they are shocked a little into controlling it with both measures and (potentially) some herd immunity helping.

one of sweden's tegnell's main theories was we're all going to end up in the same place. as they are a healthier population, his "same place" should in theory be better than some other places. which may mean the u.s. and some other first worlds have a ways to go. hopefully not too far.

You are assuming Sweden and the USA or any other comp, has the same virus strain circulating the population. I don’t “believe” that to be the case.

[jhu72]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was instructed by higher-ups within the Trump administration to modify its coronavirus testing guidelines this week to exclude people who do not have symptoms of Covid-19 — even if they have been recently exposed to the virus, according to two federal health officials.

One official said the directive came from the top down. Another said the guidelines were not written by the C.D.C. but were forced down.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/worl ... virus.html

Brilliant. Don't test to identify carriers and stop the spread.

Why not? Because positive test numbers will go up and that will look bad for Orange Duce.

Of course, more people will die later. But the trumpista hope is that the dying will happen mostly after the coronation ...

It is very clear Trump is trying to put his fat ass on the scale. Less testing, less social distancing requirments / recommendation, bullsh!t stories about blood plasma, setting up a bullsh!t story about an untested vaccine, etc., etc.

Cuomo is just now announcing they are not going to relax their system to the new recommendation. The morons in Florida will use it as another excuse to do something stupid. Fine.

The dead don't lie!