Is a 2021 season going to happen?

[pcowlax]

Maybe not!

https://nypost.com/2020/08/15/covid-19- ... cientists/

NY Post certainly not exactly the scientific source of record but interesting story. An escape from the lab in Wuhan has always seemed the most likely source (this is NOT to say that it was some engineered bioweapon). This is basic probability and common sense. If an extremely contagious new pathogen was described in Atlanta 500 yards from the CDC, my first thought would certainly that it had slipped out, not that out of the entirety of the US it coincidentally happened to be arisen from the food carts on the street in front of it.

[JBFortunato]

"The most frequently described clinical entities were viral myocarditis..."
Covid-19? Nope, influenza, from a 2017 article. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28745014/

"Myocarditis is a difficult disorder to diagnose and treat, Dr. Cooper says. The most common cause of myocarditis is an infection ― usually viral ― that can damage heart muscle chronically or acutely in otherwise healthy people, Dr. Cooper says. Infections that affect the heart differ around the globe. In the U.S., a dozen common pathogens can be responsible. An example is coxsackie virus, which up to 70 percent of U.S. residents have been exposed to by the time they are 30. “But only 1 to 2 percent of people with acute coxsackie virus infection develop cardiac symptoms,” Dr. Cooper says."
Covid-19? Nope, says the Mayo Clinic, just a common viral infection, from a 2016 article. https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/disc ... -globally/

What are you talking about? There was no covid 19 until...duh...2019.

Myocarditis has been a known possible, if unusual, outcome for a person with a virus, LIKE THE FLU (or "a dozen common pathogens"), for a long time. This isn't unique to Covid, although it is being depicted as such - that is my point. (Myocarditis can also come about as a result of taking cancer treatment drugs, having a bacterial infection, and even taking certain common antibiotics, like penicillin.)

How did we ever play college football before 2020, knowing that the flu could cause myocarditis in a player?

[DocBarrister]

"The most frequently described clinical entities were viral myocarditis..."
Covid-19? Nope, influenza, from a 2017 article. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28745014/

"Myocarditis is a difficult disorder to diagnose and treat, Dr. Cooper says. The most common cause of myocarditis is an infection ― usually viral ― that can damage heart muscle chronically or acutely in otherwise healthy people, Dr. Cooper says. Infections that affect the heart differ around the globe. In the U.S., a dozen common pathogens can be responsible. An example is coxsackie virus, which up to 70 percent of U.S. residents have been exposed to by the time they are 30. “But only 1 to 2 percent of people with acute coxsackie virus infection develop cardiac symptoms,” Dr. Cooper says."
Covid-19? Nope, says the Mayo Clinic, just a common viral infection, from a 2016 article. https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/disc ... -globally/

What are you talking about? There was no covid 19 until...duh...2019.

Myocarditis has been a known possible, if unusual, outcome for a person with a virus, LIKE THE FLU (or "a dozen common pathogens"), for a long time. This isn't unique to Covid, although it is being depicted as such - that is my point. (Myocarditis can also come about as a result of taking cancer treatment drugs, having a bacterial infection, and even taking certain common antibiotics, like penicillin.)

How did we ever play college football before 2020, knowing that the flu could cause myocarditis in a player?

You need to stop posting falsehoods.

The researchers reported evidence of myocarditis in 60% of patients in a cohort that was mostly asymptomatic or had mild symptoms (a third were hospitalized, two-thirds remained at home).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaca ... le/2768916

There is no way that a similar cohort of “normal” influenza patients would have a 60% prevalence of myocarditis.

The reported findings are nothing like what one would expect for ordinary flu.

If your assertion is that this is like the ordinary flu ... then STOP posting that lie. Like just about everything else related to Covid-19, it is nothing like the ordinary flu.

DocBarrister

[Bart]

"The most frequently described clinical entities were viral myocarditis..."
Covid-19? Nope, influenza, from a 2017 article. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28745014/

"Myocarditis is a difficult disorder to diagnose and treat, Dr. Cooper says. The most common cause of myocarditis is an infection ― usually viral ― that can damage heart muscle chronically or acutely in otherwise healthy people, Dr. Cooper says. Infections that affect the heart differ around the globe. In the U.S., a dozen common pathogens can be responsible. An example is coxsackie virus, which up to 70 percent of U.S. residents have been exposed to by the time they are 30. “But only 1 to 2 percent of people with acute coxsackie virus infection develop cardiac symptoms,” Dr. Cooper says."
Covid-19? Nope, says the Mayo Clinic, just a common viral infection, from a 2016 article. https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/disc ... -globally/

What are you talking about? There was no covid 19 until...duh...2019.

Myocarditis has been a known possible, if unusual, outcome for a person with a virus, LIKE THE FLU (or "a dozen common pathogens"), for a long time. This isn't unique to Covid, although it is being depicted as such - that is my point. (Myocarditis can also come about as a result of taking cancer treatment drugs, having a bacterial infection, and even taking certain common antibiotics, like penicillin.)

How did we ever play college football before 2020, knowing that the flu could cause myocarditis in a player?

That’s not the question to me. The question is how much more prevalent is myocarditis, if at all, with a covid infection? The study out of Germany might suggest the incident is higher. These are questions that need answering...no?

[DocBarrister]

"The most frequently described clinical entities were viral myocarditis..."
Covid-19? Nope, influenza, from a 2017 article. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28745014/

"Myocarditis is a difficult disorder to diagnose and treat, Dr. Cooper says. The most common cause of myocarditis is an infection ― usually viral ― that can damage heart muscle chronically or acutely in otherwise healthy people, Dr. Cooper says. Infections that affect the heart differ around the globe. In the U.S., a dozen common pathogens can be responsible. An example is coxsackie virus, which up to 70 percent of U.S. residents have been exposed to by the time they are 30. “But only 1 to 2 percent of people with acute coxsackie virus infection develop cardiac symptoms,” Dr. Cooper says."
Covid-19? Nope, says the Mayo Clinic, just a common viral infection, from a 2016 article. https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/disc ... -globally/

What are you talking about? There was no covid 19 until...duh...2019.

Myocarditis has been a known possible, if unusual, outcome for a person with a virus, LIKE THE FLU (or "a dozen common pathogens"), for a long time. This isn't unique to Covid, although it is being depicted as such - that is my point. (Myocarditis can also come about as a result of taking cancer treatment drugs, having a bacterial infection, and even taking certain common antibiotics, like penicillin.)

How did we ever play college football before 2020, knowing that the flu could cause myocarditis in a player?

That’s not the question to me. The question is how much more prevalent is myocarditis, if at all, with a covid infection? The study out of Germany might suggest the incident is higher. These are questions that need answering...no?

Depends on the patient cohort and the diagnostic criteria and methods, but the reported incidence has typically been 4% or less for “ordinary” influenza.

https://westjem.com/case-report/fatal-i ... TRODUCTION

With respect to prevalence, I have seen reports of 11% or less.

Again, depends on the patient cohort and diagnostic criteria and methods, as well as the specific influenza virus.

Bottom line, nothing close to what has recently been reported for Covid-19, which is increasingly being recognized for the severe inflammatory reactions it elicits.

DocBarrister

[kramerica.inc]

Positivity rate and 7-day average are at new lows in MD and they have tested 20% of the popluation.

https://foxbaltimore.com/news/local/cov ... tions-drop

[pcowlax]

"The most frequently described clinical entities were viral myocarditis..."
Covid-19? Nope, influenza, from a 2017 article. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28745014/

"Myocarditis is a difficult disorder to diagnose and treat, Dr. Cooper says. The most common cause of myocarditis is an infection ― usually viral ― that can damage heart muscle chronically or acutely in otherwise healthy people, Dr. Cooper says. Infections that affect the heart differ around the globe. In the U.S., a dozen common pathogens can be responsible. An example is coxsackie virus, which up to 70 percent of U.S. residents have been exposed to by the time they are 30. “But only 1 to 2 percent of people with acute coxsackie virus infection develop cardiac symptoms,” Dr. Cooper says."
Covid-19? Nope, says the Mayo Clinic, just a common viral infection, from a 2016 article. https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/disc ... -globally/

What are you talking about? There was no covid 19 until...duh...2019.

Myocarditis has been a known possible, if unusual, outcome for a person with a virus, LIKE THE FLU (or "a dozen common pathogens"), for a long time. This isn't unique to Covid, although it is being depicted as such - that is my point. (Myocarditis can also come about as a result of taking cancer treatment drugs, having a bacterial infection, and even taking certain common antibiotics, like penicillin.)

How did we ever play college football before 2020, knowing that the flu could cause myocarditis in a player?

You need to stop posting falsehoods.

The researchers reported evidence of myocarditis in 60% of patients in a cohort that was mostly asymptomatic or had mild symptoms (a third were hospitalized, two-thirds remained at home).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaca ... le/2768916

There is no way that a similar cohort of “normal” influenza patients would have a 60% prevalence of myocarditis.

The reported findings are nothing like what one would expect for ordinary flu.

If your assertion is that this is like the ordinary flu ... then STOP posting that lie. Like just about everything else related to Covid-19, it is nothing like the ordinary flu.

DocBarrister

To be fair, you have absolutely no idea if that is true. This is myocarditis diagnosed by cardiac MRI in mostly asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients (there were a few critically ill). Patients with other viral infections who are asymptomatic are, with extremely few exceptions, not even diagnosed with an infection because they are not screen for, say, asymptomatic adenovirus. And those that are diagnosed do not get screening cardiac MRIs without cardiac symptoms. That study fairly screams ascertainment bias and it is impossible to know what do do with the findings or to compare them with another virus.

[Bart]

"The most frequently described clinical entities were viral myocarditis..."
Covid-19? Nope, influenza, from a 2017 article. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28745014/

"Myocarditis is a difficult disorder to diagnose and treat, Dr. Cooper says. The most common cause of myocarditis is an infection ― usually viral ― that can damage heart muscle chronically or acutely in otherwise healthy people, Dr. Cooper says. Infections that affect the heart differ around the globe. In the U.S., a dozen common pathogens can be responsible. An example is coxsackie virus, which up to 70 percent of U.S. residents have been exposed to by the time they are 30. “But only 1 to 2 percent of people with acute coxsackie virus infection develop cardiac symptoms,” Dr. Cooper says."
Covid-19? Nope, says the Mayo Clinic, just a common viral infection, from a 2016 article. https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/disc ... -globally/

What are you talking about? There was no covid 19 until...duh...2019.

Myocarditis has been a known possible, if unusual, outcome for a person with a virus, LIKE THE FLU (or "a dozen common pathogens"), for a long time. This isn't unique to Covid, although it is being depicted as such - that is my point. (Myocarditis can also come about as a result of taking cancer treatment drugs, having a bacterial infection, and even taking certain common antibiotics, like penicillin.)

How did we ever play college football before 2020, knowing that the flu could cause myocarditis in a player?

You need to stop posting falsehoods.

The researchers reported evidence of myocarditis in 60% of patients in a cohort that was mostly asymptomatic or had mild symptoms (a third were hospitalized, two-thirds remained at home).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaca ... le/2768916

There is no way that a similar cohort of “normal” influenza patients would have a 60% prevalence of myocarditis.

The reported findings are nothing like what one would expect for ordinary flu.

If your assertion is that this is like the ordinary flu ... then STOP posting that lie. Like just about everything else related to Covid-19, it is nothing like the ordinary flu.

DocBarrister

To be fair, you have absolutely no idea if that is true. This is myocarditis diagnosed by cardiac MRI in mostly asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients (there were a few critically ill). Patients with other viral infections who are asymptomatic are, with extremely few exceptions, not even diagnosed with an infection because they are not screen for, say, asymptomatic adenovirus. And those that are diagnosed do not get screening cardiac MRIs without cardiac symptoms. That study fairly screams ascertainment bias and it is impossible to know what do do with the findings or to compare them with another virus.

I agree that is an issue with the study. There is no baseline to compare it with.

That being said, asymptomatic or not, they are still diagnosed with myocarditis. This is not my wheelhouse but wouldn’t they still be susceptible to cardiac arrhythmias if say, working out real hard?

[pcowlax]

I don’t want to go into the medical weeds here but they were diagnosed with myocarditis is a way that no one ever is. We go through life with dozens of subclinical issues that never cause problems and are never picked up because no one randomly looks for them. The asymptomatic myocarditis picked up on blanket screening MRIs is, by definition, milder than any myocarditis ever studied. I can’t tell you if it raises the risk of arrhythmias because this is not known. I can tell you with certainty that hundred to thousands of athletes have likely played with this before because there is no reason to think that viruses that cause clinically significant myocarditis (coxsackie, adeno, parvo, etc) do not also cause milder, asymptomatic disease at much higher rates. It is never diagnosed because, again, you don’t find what you don’t look for. Who knows, maybe some of the extremely rare cardiac death in athletes are due to this. That vast, vast majority of such cases obviously play through and recover without ever knowing they had it.

[DocBarrister]

Notre Dame may soon need to follow UNC and beat a hasty retreat after 58 students have already tested positive for the coronavirus. That includes an astonishing 50% positivity rate (15 of 30) on Sunday.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... a46600646e

Poor foolish Notre Dame ... this is what happens when you follow the ACC into the abyss.

DocBarrister

Notre Dame has suspended in-person instruction for two weeks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/ed ... Fstory-ans

The Fall sports season is on increasingly unstable ground. The Spring season is only marginally safer.

DocBarrister

[faircornell]

Cornell has a very strict program for testing of incoming students as well as policies for on campus and off campus behavior. Obviously, it's not yet tested. If successful, it will be interesting to see if this results in a model that other universities will follow this format.

[Bart]

I don’t want to go into the medical weeds here but they were diagnosed with myocarditis is a way that no one ever is. We go through life with dozens of subclinical issues that never cause problems and are never picked up because no one randomly looks for them. The asymptomatic myocarditis picked up on blanket screening MRIs is, by definition, milder than any myocarditis ever studied. I can’t tell you if it raises the risk of arrhythmias because this is not known. I can tell you with certainty that hundred to thousands of athletes have likely played with this before because there is no reason to think that viruses that cause clinically significant myocarditis (coxsackie, adeno, parvo, etc) do not also cause milder, asymptomatic disease at much higher rates. It is never diagnosed because, again, you don’t find what you don’t look for. Who knows, maybe some of the extremely rare cardiac death in athletes are due to this. That vast, vast majority of such cases obviously play through and recover without ever knowing they had it.

All fair and good, thanks for that.

[FMUBart]

Notre Dame may soon need to follow UNC and beat a hasty retreat after 58 students have already tested positive for the coronavirus. That includes an astonishing 50% positivity rate (15 of 30) on Sunday.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... a46600646e

Poor foolish Notre Dame ... this is what happens when you follow the ACC into the abyss.

DocBarrister

Notre Dame has suspended in-person instruction for two weeks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/ed ... Fstory-ans

The Fall sports season is on increasingly unstable ground. The Spring season is only marginally safer.

DocBarrister

Is that conjecture Doc, or, are you reading CNN again?

[DocBarrister]

Just three days into their Fall semester, the University of Alabama is already in trouble.

Changes are coming to the University of Alabama COVID-19 plan three days into the new semester.

The school on Friday announced a moratorium on in-person student events along with restrictions on Greek houses just before 5 p.m. All events will be paused for 14 days, according to a document obtained by AL.com.

And with fraternity and sorority houses, only residents can enter the buildings other than members picking up grab-and-go meals. Access to common rooms in the houses is now restricted.

... Alabama officials announced a positivity rate of less than 1 percent among students who were tested during the reentry process. Those numbers have risen significantly.

“Just in the last few days as we’ve tested at Coleman Coliseum and the Student Health Center, we’ve seen the numbers jump up from 1 percent to 4 percent to 5 percent,” Pope said in the meeting with student leaders. “And in one particular case, I think it was Coleman Coliseum (Thursday), actually it might be the Student Health Center, we saw 29 percent of the students who tested were positive.”

https://www.al.com/news/2020/08/new-res ... cerns.html

DocBarrister

[bearlaxfan]

Via David Anderson, Balloon-Juice blog

UNC had no pro-active testing strategy. UNC would only test symptomatic individuals and close contacts of symptomatic individuals. This means that the university had no awareness of any community spread risk much less actualities until students started to go to campus health centers with symptoms. And by that time, there had been several days of potential high density contact in dorms, in classes, in stores, in parties and elsewhere on and near campus.

Duke has used a different set of strategies. Anyone who returned to campus including staff and students was tested on re-entry. This identified non-symptomatic individuals who otherwise could have been infectious and broke future infection chains. It also makes the primary source of any on-campus infections to be from off-campus interactions. More importantly, Duke is also conducting massive weekly surveillance testing using non-CLIA labs and pooled testing strategies. The goal is to limit infections to one, two, three, four here and there instead of forty, fifty, one hundred and thirty infections in a cluster. Duke is assuming students will be infected. Their goal is predicated upon enough surveillance testing that singular infections don’t become campus wide outbreaks.

UNC did not have that capacity or willingness to build that capability. And now they are closed down as the Board of Governors and the Chancellor expected impossible behavior from 20,000 people in the context of broad community spread without having the tools available to have a hope in hell of breaking infection chains early and often.

[DocBarrister]

A number of ACC and SEC schools are in trouble.

The reported share of students testing positive for the coronavirus at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill more than doubled after the first week of class, surpassing 30 percent last week, according to the school’s data dashboard.

The university reports that it has received results from more than 1,500 tests last week. More than 500 of those were positive.

During the first full week of August, before students returned to campus, UNC-Chapel Hill reported a positivity rate of 2.8 percent. The following week, as classes began, the positivity rate grew to 13.6 percent.

At least 784 students have tested positive for the coronavirus to date, with the bulk of those infections coming after the start of the semester. According to the local IndyWeek alternative weekly, UNC bases its data on testing that takes place at the campus health center or on results self-reported by students. Consequently, students who get tested off-campus are not necessarily reflected in the data.

Several major universities that brought back students for in-person learning disclosed large numbers of coronavirus infections on Monday. Missouri State University logged 141 cases in its first full week of classes, and averaged 20 new cases per day, the Springfield News-Leader reported. At the rival University of Missouri, there were 159 active cases on the first day of class.

Meanwhile, the University of Alabama revealed that more than 531 students, faculty and staff had tested positive for coronavirus since classes began last Wednesday. On Monday, the city of Tuscaloosa announced plans to shut down bars to control the spread of the virus. Central Michigan University also took action against rampant parties on Monday, suspending Greek organizations after reporting 54 new cases in seven days.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... HW7XM5HTOE

DocBarrister

[cuseman4133]

Oklahoma HC Lincoln Riley said all but one player in a position group got wiped out by a COVID test. It's one that needs multiple players on the field (which doesn't help a lot). But something to consider moving forward: https://twitter.com/jasonkersey/status/ ... 3003195399

[FMUBart]

I wonder if the results were derived from the same lab in Jersey that had all the false positives for the NFL. New cases are one thing, hospitalizations and deaths are the story. Everyone becomes ill from time to time. If you're positive, quarantine and don't spread the virus...while it is much different from "normal" influenza, it is still a virus & there will be a new one(mutated) next year and the year after that...COVID-"19"...18 predecessors? Political doom and gloom...

[Drcthru]

I wonder if the results were derived from the same lab in Jersey that had all the false positives for the NFL. New cases are one thing, hospitalizations and deaths are the story. Everyone becomes ill from time to time. If you're positive, quarantine and don't spread the virus...while it is much different from "normal" influenza, it is still a virus & there will be a new one(mutated) next year and the year after that...COVID-"19"...18 predecessors? Political doom and gloom...

Covid-19 was discovered in 2019. There are not 18 previous strains. Listening to Rush?

[Farfromgeneva]

Been making this same statement for weeks of “I’ve never heard of quarantining the healthy” as if it made any sense in relation to kids going back to school. Couldn’t tell if it was political bias or an unreasonable obsession with wanting college sports but clearer lately. Too many Chuck Woolery types out there who have zero concern or empathy for others, I’m not seeing a point/counterpoint in this discussion. The side that wants to throw every kid in the pool isn’t really making arguments which may be valid, about cost benefit analysis or attempting to suggest any creative economically feasible solutions to having a season, but rather trying to downplay the virus and it’s potential risk to this cohort. There’s some extreme “shut it all down until this is solved” on the other side but at least we know risk/legal liability management would suggest an extreme position of safety for anyone who’s ever had to hire a lawyer.