National Security Matters

[a fan]

oldsalt - you clearly have a more apt pulse on all things military, so when it comes to the ME, it just seems like this is a futile exercise in making it appear like we/our allies are actually helping someone, when in part..it just seems to whip up more chaos, lives, and money, splinter cells, and angst vs America.

At some point, and maybe that time is upon us, it will be revealed that the US has keeping the ME in a "stable as can be expected" state for the last 20+ years and it is now time for those countries to rise or fall on their own. If we have been futile swaying democracy and civility in our history, why then continue? It's like raising an addict with co-dependent parents that have no boundaries....nothing gets better, until the addict changes course.

headbang1 Agree fully.

(never used this emoji. So enjoy it, YA! )

[Chips O'Toole]

Glad you find it quaint Chips. It's not a new policy. It's consistent with what Trump has been saying since the '80's. It's part of what got him elected.

How much do you get paid an hour to falsely restate & distort what other people say ?

If Mueller's got the goods, now's the time to take the kill shot, while Trump's staggering, before the new Senators settle in. Before Trump regains his footing.

I could see Romney going to the WH with Thune, Blount, Cornyn & McConnell to tell Trump it's time to board AF1 for a one way flight to Mar-a-Lago.

I saw your previous posts and know you are aware of Trump's likely sinister motives. I see now it didn't come across that way. I'm just seeing too many in the media accepting this as a bona fide policy dispute rather than Trump using some garbage he's spouted in the past as cover to do Putin's bidding, which is of course what is going on. Mattis didn't pull a noisy withdrawal because Trump is finally executing on a foreign policy objective he's been talking about for years and "got him elected." He's doing so because, as his letter implies, Trump is just serving it all up for the Boss.

[a fan]

I admittedly don't understand this view, Chips.

We "owned" the Middle East for the last 30 years now. What did we get from this ownership? Let's see: oh, blew about $4 Trillion and still counting, how many thousands of American casualties, all their PTSD for the horrible things they saw, 9/11, the Cole, and and handful of wannabes still trying to harm us.

If Putin wants to take over "all this winning" in this godforsaken (ironic) region? Can I personally hand him the keys? When can he get started?

[Trinity]

We are now the world’s unreliable ally. Mission accomplished.

[holmes435]

It's not like we had anything that could have predicted what a prolonged war in the ME would have looked like

[Chips O'Toole]

I admittedly don't understand this view, Chips.

We "owned" the Middle East for the last 30 years now. What did we get from this ownership? Let's see: oh, blew about $4 Trillion and still counting, how many thousands of American casualties, all their PTSD for the horrible things they saw, 9/11, the Cole, and and handful of wannabes still trying to harm us.

If Putin wants to take over "all this winning" in this godforsaken (ironic) region? Can I personally hand him the keys? When can he get started?

Sorry, I am not very articulate today. I'm not taking a position that this is a bad policy move as it relates to the ME -- I don't know enough about that to even opine. What I am confident of is that the man pulling the lever is doing so with corrupt intent, and not because he has some strongly held belief that this is better for us as a nation. It may very well be better for us as a nation; and if our interests in this one case happen to align with Trump's corrupt and self-motivated decisions, that's just a happy coincidence. Let's not pat the man on the back for it. General Mattis sure isn't.

[old salt]

Glad you find it quaint Chips. It's not a new policy. It's consistent with what Trump has been saying since the '80's. It's part of what got him elected.

How much do you get paid an hour to falsely restate & distort what other people say ?

If Mueller's got the goods, now's the time to take the kill shot, while Trump's staggering, before the new Senators settle in. Before Trump regains his footing.

I could see Romney going to the WH with Thune, Blount, Cornyn & McConnell to tell Trump it's time to board AF1 for a one way flight to Mar-a-Lago.

I saw your previous posts and know you are aware of Trump's likely sinister motives. I see now it didn't come across that way. I'm just seeing too many in the media accepting this as a bona fide policy dispute rather than Trump using some garbage he's spouted in the past as cover to do Putin's bidding, which is of course what is going on. Mattis didn't pull a noisy withdrawal because Trump is finally executing on a foreign policy objective he's been talking about for years and "got him elected." He's doing so because, as his letter implies, Trump is just serving it all up for the Boss.

You may be right. You may be wrong. I don't dismiss either possibility. Mueller's going to have to deliver the evidence, so the voters, or the Congress, can reach an informed verdict. If Mueller does not deliver the evidence, we have to recognize that Trump's seemingly impulsive behavior is consistent with what he's said for decades & what he campaigned on.

In addition to being unqualified, Trump was completely unprepared to assume the Presidency. He hired whatever competent experienced people he could find, who had not publicly trashed him & were willing to sacrifice their reputation to work for such an erratic individual, for the good of the country. We're fortunate that Mattis, Kelly & McMaster stepped forward & lasted as long as they did. They didn't quit, they were asked to leave. We owe them a debt of gratitude. Trump's been in office for 2 years now. He knows what he wants to do. He thinks he can now find people to carry out his policies without pushback, slow walking, or side tracking.

Trump may have corrupt intent. Or, he may just be incompetent, selfserving & bascically dishonest.
His corrupt intent may be small time, cashing in on his position & not a preplanned international conspiracy.
He did not expect him to win & neither did Putin (according to our IC).
He may be just a grifter & con man, not a saboteur with an elaborate scheme to sell out his country.

Do not mischaracterize my attempts to understand his policies, & celebrate them when I agree, as patting Trump on the back.
I've tended to give the credit to Mattis, which is why his departure distresses me so much.

[old salt]

2,000 NATO troops aren't going to block a Turkish incursion, nor should they..

No, I'm saying Turkey is part of NATO, right?

If the goal is to keep terrorists out of Turkey, why can't NATO, with Turkish forces leading the effort, do just that?

Not all " terrorists " are actually terrorists.
Everyone who picked up an AK-47 for AQ or ISIS is a legit terrorists.
Not every Kurd who joined the YPG to expel ISIS from their homeland is a PKK terrorist willing to go to Turkey & fight to carve out an independent Kurdish state.

Erdogan's not willing the take the time to figure out who's who. He'd rather send them all to paradise & let Allah sort them out.
We failed the Kurds (again) by welcoming them to fight on our behalf, then did not step up to protect them after they prevailed on the battlefield.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Rula Jebreal is sharp. Very sharp.

[old salt]

Syrian Kurds look to Assad & Russia for survival.

http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/c1f8 ... 77eec62c95

...Kurds there are now faced with the prospect of making a deal with Damascus before Turkish attacks begin.

“Now we have Manbij and the east of the Euphrates in front of us. We are working intensively on this subject,” Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Thursday, as reported by Turkish media.

Many residents of Manbij say they do not want to fall victim to Turkey and experience a “second Afrin” scenario, which saw mass displacement and looting by Turkish-backed groups in the early months of 2018.

...a few weeks after joint Turkish-US patrols, as part of a plan known as the Manbij roadmap, contributed to keeping Turkey out of the city. Just a week ago, the US was credited with stopping Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan from ordering the commencement of an attack.

However, Trump’s announcement on Wednesday has abruptly changed perceptions of what all sides can reasonably expect going forward.

As quickly as Thursday, Turkish-backed groups began firing on positions outside the city held by the Manbij Military Council (MMC).

Many in Syria expect that the SDF will withdraw its fighters from Islamic State (IS) fronts as far away as Deir al-Zor and Raqqa to redeploy them northward to defend border areas near Manbij, should a major Turkish operation begin.

Faced with a choice between the presence of Turkish or Syrian fighters in Manbij, Mohammed Cumaa Arab, an ethnic Turkmen in the Manbij administration, said in early December that the decision for him was easy. “If we have to choose between Turkey and the regime, of course we will choose the regime.”

When the Turkish attack on Afrin began in January 2017, Russia was seen to have given the Kurds there the choice of either handing over Afrin to Damascus, or else Turkish troops would enter. Now, all those to the east of the Euphrates could face the same decision.

According to Maxwell B. Markusen, Associate Fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Syrian Kurds “can stay and fight against a Turkish-led incursion, they can withdraw from the territory, or they can negotiate a deal with the Russians and the Assad regime.”

He said that none of these are good options, but added that the Russians are now the Kurds’ best chance for survival.

“A negotiated settlement with the Russians and Assad regime is not likely to give the Kurds the same degree of autonomy enjoyed under the U.S.-led coalition, but would represent a change from the brutal oppression and lack of civil rights that the Kurds faced before the Syrian civil war,” he told Kurdistan 24.

According to Markusen, the Kurds should leverage their strength as a stabilizing force in northeastern Syria, and offer to cooperate with Moscow and Damascus to guard against an IS resurgence in the region.

“The Kurds should also work with Russia and the Assad regime to prevent a Turkish incursion, which could see the forced migration of Kurds into other regions of Syria, and the relocation of Arab, Turkmen, and other Syrian refugees into these Kurdish-held territories.”

Senior Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) official Ilham Ahmed said that all “arrows point to Moscow” for negotiations with Damascus, as reported by Al-Monitor on Thursday.

According to a statement by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), Kurdish officials and Damascus have already held discussions about handing over oil fields to the Syrian government. Unconfirmed reports contend that the meetings took place in the city of Qamishli (Qamishlo), located right on the Turkish border.

Bassam Ishak, an SDC representative in Washington, did not confirm whether or not such negotiations are taking place, saying only, “SDF was always open to talks with all parties except the terrorists.”

A 30-year-old Syrian Kurd who did not want his name used when talking to Kurdistan 24 said that he hopes that the Kurdish leadership will strike a deal with Damascus.

Asking that he be referred to only as Azad, he remarked, “It’s better than Turkey and militias.”

[a fan]

I don't understand this. Turkey is a member of NATO. What the firetruck is a NATO member doing invading a sovereign nation, and why are fellow NATO members allowing this to happen? Everyone is acting like "well of course Turkey is going to go in and slaughter people in Syria?"

What?

[old salt]

Double talk babble from Erdogan. He didn't expect Trump to say ok.

The Turkish president has pledged to clear Syria of the US-backed Kurdish militants and Daesh terrorists.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the comments during a speech in the Turkish city of Istanbul. Erdogan said, his country will delay the planned military operation in northern Syria. The Turkish president stressed, Ankara fully supports the territorial integrity of Syria. He however warned that Turkey will not back down in the face of any attacks launched against the country from Syria.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... phone-call

Accounts in the US and Turkish press of the Friday call between Trump and Erdoğan show the volatile US president complying with the Turkish leader’s demands and taking his own advisers by surprise.

According to a version of events in the Associated Press, the US position going into the call was to demand that Turkey stall a planned offensive into Syria aimed at US-backed Kurdish elements of the SDF, which Ankara sees as indistinguishable from the Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey.

“The talking points were very firm,” one of the officials quoted by the Associated Press said. “Everybody said push back and try to offer [Turkey] something that’s a small win, possibly holding territory on the border, something like that.”

Erdoğan responded by saying that Isis had been 99% defeated.

“Why are you still there?” Erdoğan demanded, according to the account.

With the Turkish leader still on the line, Trump asked the same question of his national security adviser, John Bolton, who repeated US policy until then, that the defeat of Isis had to be “enduring”, preventing the possibility of a resurgence.

To the surprise of Bolton and Erdoğan, Trump instantly sided with the Turkish president.

According to the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, whose account is similar to the Associated Press’s, Trump declared: “OK – do it.” Not hearing an instant response from Bolton, Trump demanded to know whether his national security adviser was still on the line. When Bolton said he was, Trump ordered: “Start the work.”

Bolton and his Turkish counterpart, Ibrahim Kalin, were left to sort out the details.

The Hurriyet report said the initial timetable for US withdrawal was between 30 and 60 days, which was later extended to up to 100 days.

Such an abrupt withdrawal would leave the SDF vulnerable to Turkish attack. Observers said it gave the SDF little choice but to try to reach deal with the Assad regime, in an effort to safeguard some Kurdish autonomy.

Sounds like Erdogan's not ready yet to follow through. He expected Trump to try to stop him.
He massed his troops on the border, but apparently hoped not to have to send them in.
If the PKK does not stage any attacks in Turkey, Erdogan may stay out of Syria,

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/ ... 12573.html

Erdogan delays Syria operation, welcomes US troop withdrawal

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that his country would postpone a military operation against Syrian Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria as he "cautiously" welcomed Washington's decision to withdraw its troops in the area.

Speaking during a speech in Istanbul, Erdogan said the US decision meant Turkey would "wait a little longer" before launching the operation.

"Of course, this is not an open-ended waiting period," he warned, adding that Turkey was working on plans to "neutralise Daesh elements" that still exist in Syria. Daesh is the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS).

Erdogan had announced on December 12 that Turkey would start an offensive in northern Syria in "the next few days", but on December 14, he spoke to US President Donald Trump in a phone call.

"In the next months, we will see an operational style aimed at removing the YPG (Kurdish People's Protection Units militia) and Daesh (ISIL) elements on the ground in Syria," Erdogan said.

The Turkish government views the US-backed YPG as an extension of an armed group fighting inside Turkey.

Although Erdogan welcomed Trump's decision to leave Syria, he said he remained "cautious" because of "past negative experiences", referring to Ankara's continued disappointment over the US administration's failure to stop providing military support to the YPG in their fight against ISIL.

[a fan]

Ah, the pitch is going after ISIS.

We can't complain about that, now can we? Clever girl.

[holmes435]

I don't understand this. Turkey is a member of NATO. What the firetruck is a NATO member doing invading a sovereign nation, and why are fellow NATO members allowing this to happen? Everyone is acting like "well of course Turkey is going to go in and slaughter people in Syria?"

What?

This is rhetorical, no? Or are you trying to goad answers out of a few specific people on the forums from both camps?

It's unfortunate as Turkey was moving in the right direction for so long despite some major issues. Erdogan is just wrecking the place now. Ataturk is spinning in his grave. I'm glad to have visited when I did.

[old salt]

Laura Ingraham nominated Jim Webb for SecDef tonight.
I hope Trump was listening.
His policies are very much in line with Trump's.
Particularly staying out of stupid wars in the ME.
He warned against going ashore in Arabia in '91.
...& we've never left.

Webb understands why Trump won.

[tech37]

IMO, pulling out of Syria is one thing but to pull out of Afghanistan at same time is just mind boggling. Not too long ago, we destroyed an ISIS compound in Afghan and now that we're leaving, I don't think we should be surprised if the next Islamic terrorist group that can/will threaten the US, will originate from this region. They may not call themselves ISIS, but when it comes to Islamic terrorists, it's "TAATS." In the meantime, Trump better secure that border...yeah sure...not in this political dump storm...

Mattis leaving f'ing sucks.

I wonder how China and NK view Trump's latest decisions to pull back militarily...do they view this as capitulation or weakness, or something else? Will this embolden China in trade talks? Could it affect the conceivable reunification of Korean Peninsula?

[Trinity]

I met Webb at a book party for Nelson DeMille. He’s more than qualified and very smart, a wonderful writer, too. I didn’t sense the people skills needed to run for President but he could do the job sooo much better.....

[youthathletics]

I wonder how China and NK view Trump's latest decisions to pull back militarily...do they view this as capitulation or weakness, or something else? Will this embolden China in trade talks? Could it affect the conceivable reunification of Korean Peninsula?

All too often, we grossly over analyze everything. IMO, this cannot be viewed or even assumed as capitulation or weakness, but of a postilion of strength. Alphas do not need to fight, unless provoked or they just feel like doing it to make a statement of strength.

It has not been written or spoken that we will never return, only that we are removing our troops. If it proven in the coming years that these countries slide into worsening conditions....what does that say about us? To me, it says to the people of these countries that YOU NEED TO CHANGE!

[old salt]

We're pulling out 7,000 & leaving 7.000. That's enough to do counterterrorism if we can get the ASF to fight like the SDF & ISF.

We're giving up on national building & training the ASF.
We'll be "enabling" the ASF to kill the bad guys.
Not sure the ASF are as reliable as the SDF & ISF.
Most of our recent casualties have come from ASF turncoats & nation building IEDs.
I hope we keep the A-10's there. They'll stay busy.
The Taliban, AQ & ISIS will be coming out from under their rocks.

[old salt]

McGurk's resignation is a real loss, although his plan to leave in Feb could be viewed as an indicator that the war in Syria has been won, ...for now.

I hope Jeffrey hangs in there to manage the withdrawl & protect the Kurds.