Peter Brown wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:09 am
Bart wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:58 am
Peter Brown wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:54 am
njbill wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:44 pm
It went away in April. This is all fake news.
For a 99.6% recovery rate (and trending higher!), it sure does seem mildly hysterical rather than factually sober.
But what do I know!
Where is the 0.4% rate published?
covid fatality rate from the CDC:
0-49 years old: .05% (99.95% recover)
50-64 years old: .2% (99.8% recover)
65+ years old: 1.3% (98.7% recover)
Overall ages: .4% (99.6% recover)
https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/healt ... 3459f0082b
Using the current numbers, that means more than 30 million people could have been infected, which would make the infection fatality rate 0.4% -- meaning 99.6% of people survive the virus.
ok, so that was from May. The updated version of these models is from June and they have a slightly higher composite rate at .65% Still would be greater than 99% recovery, which would be great.
Perhaps someone here who is much smarter than me can help me out. These lower bound numbers depend on large numbers of asyptomatic and undaignosed individuals. If we take the current JHU confirmed death count of roughly 174K and adjust the number of infected by the 0.4% fatality rate that would mean that the total infected population would be roughly 43.5 million individuals. About 8X reported on the JHU site. (I am suing this site for convenience purposes) This would mean that roughly 15% of the population would/will have been infected. the vast majority being asymptomatic and not diagnosed. Extrapolating to any "population" you would then expect 15% to either be infected or have been infected.
I think the number of cases is higher then reported but what I have a hard time understanding is to what extent. I only have two "populations" to compare it to. The first is someone I know very well, that works in a medical setting where the entire department was ab tested. Not a huge department but upwards of 100 individuals and other than the two known positives, 0 others were positive at the time of the test. Second is a lacrosse player with team members returning from all over the country, both mens and womens teams returned their entirety, 0 positives. Are these two populations just lucky? Both populations consist of individuals not hunkered down, my guess, one would thing there would be more positives is there are that many undiagnosed individuals around.