Johns Hopkins 2021

[51percentcorn]

Loamy warm bags aside, Hop needs to up their game. There is a post today in the Denver thread counting up the heads and claiming they will have roster of 68 in the hypothetical 2021 season! Beat that!

SO I think the Denver math goes something like this - the 2020 Pioneer roster had 52 names with 9 seniors (I don't know who decided to stay for their extra year but I think this math assumes they all do) so then IL has 15 names on their incoming recruit list. That gets me to 67 for the 2021 season. Maybe there is some slight addition and subtraction for transfer portal which I did not research to get to 68. If you applied the same logic to Hopkins roster you would have been over 70 I imagine. Of course, the real question is if there are no college sports Spring 2021 - in terms of rosters - How now brown cow? Overall, this does highlight HF16's point that many rosters are swelling - assuming IL's list for 2020 Denver is correct - then Denver's 2021 roster in a "normal situation" would have been somewhere close to 58 (52-9+15) which is in itself absurd for a lacrosse team.

[nyjay]

So we're down one more - Logan Blondell is now at St. Joe's per their twitter account. Not sure if anyone mentioned that before. But we're not up there with Denver in terms of numbers.

[51percentcorn]

I think it's news that he ended up at St.Joe's but technically we are not "down one more" as Blondell was a Petro casualty - left the team almost at the exact same time as Rapine and was not on the 2020 roster.

[jhu06]

we have a running list of departures-where they went. Decommits/where they committed to. New transfers in/where they're from and new recruits? I've lost track. I bet one of you has a list?

[HopFan16]

Transfers out

Stagnitta --> Jacksonville
Blondell --> St. Joe's
Gomez --> Lehigh
Concannon --> Hofstra

Transfers in

Kirson <-- Ohio State
Fernandez <-- Syracuse
Szuluk <-- Lafayette

Dropped from roster with no known destination
Gainey
Finley-Ponds
Heverly

2021 recruits out post-Petro

Long --> Penn State
Peden --> Penn State
Demopolous --> Brown
Cohen --> Yale
Litchfield --> Lehigh
Constantinides --> Towson

2021 Milliman recruits in

Charboneau <--Cornell
Wong <-- Cornell
Bowler <-- Binghamton
Phillips <-- Vermont
Callahan
Webb
McDonald

2021 recruits still leftover (for now) from Petro

Todaro
Kaufman
Teachout

[bananas]

Lot of movement

Blue Jays goaltending and defense were at best average. After Foley and Rapine left , thought Gomez had shot to see some field but he didnt though only six games in.

Surprised Gainey left, thought he'd figure this year . Is Kirson now leading candidate to be goalie? He's solid.

[nyjay]

That's a lot of turnover. Probably not optimal given the current circumstances, but change was definitely needed. Next year (in whatever form it may take) might be tougher than I previously thought, but I remain optimistic for the longer term future. I'm really very curious what the 22 recruiting class ends up looking like. You could convince me that we'll end up with a fair number of highly ranked kids, including some top 10 kind of kids, and you could just as easily convince me that we'll end up with a bunch of unranked Canadians and box kids. I really have no idea what to expect.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Random Wombat thought from the past 48 hours:

Maybe the inflated roster sizes have another factor beyond ER and COVID.

Maybe with all the greater talent pool available, it’s become really hard to identify who might breakout and be a sleeper pick, or a three star recruit who might blossom into five star status.

So... load up on more of them.

I guess this has already been discussed in some form or fashion, but if increasing recruiting class sizes is becoming the norm across D1, hell, maybe the coaches themselves are not really that sure either on lots of cases.

I do know one thing from the Homewood stands chatter: recruitment ranks mean nothing. What matters is when you step onto the field against another D1 team and demonstrate you can produce or not.

“Welcome to D1” as a guy picks his ass up off the turf.

[flalax22]

That's a lot of turnover. Probably not optimal given the current circumstances, but change was definitely needed. Next year (in whatever form it may take) might be tougher than I previously thought, but I remain optimistic for the longer term future. I'm really very curious what the 22 recruiting class ends up looking like. You could convince me that we'll end up with a fair number of highly ranked kids, including some top 10 kind of kids, and you could just as easily convince me that we'll end up with a bunch of unranked Canadians and box kids. I really have no idea what to expect.

I think given the Cornell roster, who will be coaching the O side and what PM has said you can bank on a boatload of Canadians at Homewood.

[nyjay]

Agree on the Canadians - question is what's the profile of the Americans.

[HopFan16]

That's a lot of turnover. Probably not optimal given the current circumstances, but change was definitely needed. Next year (in whatever form it may take) might be tougher than I previously thought, but I remain optimistic for the longer term future. I'm really very curious what the 22 recruiting class ends up looking like. You could convince me that we'll end up with a fair number of highly ranked kids, including some top 10 kind of kids, and you could just as easily convince me that we'll end up with a bunch of unranked Canadians and box kids. I really have no idea what to expect.

Worth noting that Milliman recruited four top 100 IL players to Cornell in the 2020 class (all of whom ended up making this year's UAAA team), including a top 10 player in Kirst (and a top 20 defender in Follows). So while I believe him that recruiting classes will look different from here on out I still think we'll be in the mix for *some* of the same kids Petro would have went after. My guess is it'll be a mix of the IL type kids (though probably not as many as Petro used to land) and the more relatively unknown Canadians/box-background kids. Remains to be seen how the assistant coaches affect recruiting beyond that.

[Hopfan]

If his commitment is confirmed, it’s interesting that PM recruited a second 2021 FOGO. Since all of Sam Macdonald’s Hill Academy highlights are exclusively face offs, I’m assuming he doesn’t run regular M shifts. Wonder if PM or Jamo see something with the new FO rules; can’t tell anything from highlights which preceded the rule change.
Depending on what happens with Prouty and eligibility, that could mean 6 FOGOs even without Heverly. Hard to imagine all of them sticking around.
Also wonder if this means PM isn’t recruiting Mac Moreland, Hunter’s brother, from BL, who was named to one of the UA teams and supposedly was interested in JHU, since he’s primarily a FOGO.

[HopFan16]

If his commitment is confirmed, it’s interesting that PM recruited a second 2021 FOGO. Since all of Sam Macdonald’s Hill Academy highlights are exclusively face offs, I’m assuming he doesn’t run regular M shifts. Wonder if PM or Jamo see something with the new FO rules; can’t tell anything from highlights which preceded the rule change.
Depending on what happens with Prouty and eligibility, that could mean 6 FOGOs even without Heverly. Hard to imagine all of them sticking around.
Also wonder if this means PM isn’t recruiting Mac Moreland, Hunter’s brother, from BL, who was named to one of the UA teams and supposedly was interested in JHU, since he’s primarily a FOGO.

I heard it was Eric McDonald, not Sam. Eric is an attackman/middie.

Here's a tweet from his club team: https://twitter.com/juiced_cherries/sta ... 9966318594

There isn't going to be another FOGO in the class

[jhu06]

That's a lot of turnover. Probably not optimal given the current circumstances, but change was definitely needed. Next year (in whatever form it may take) might be tougher than I previously thought, but I remain optimistic for the longer term future. I'm really very curious what the 22 recruiting class ends up looking like. You could convince me that we'll end up with a fair number of highly ranked kids, including some top 10 kind of kids, and you could just as easily convince me that we'll end up with a bunch of unranked Canadians and box kids. I really have no idea what to expect.

Worth noting that Milliman recruited four top 100 IL players to Cornell in the 2020 class (all of whom ended up making this year's UAAA team), including a top 10 player in Kirst (and a top 20 defender in Follows). So while I believe him that recruiting classes will look different from here on out I still think we'll be in the mix for *some* of the same kids Petro would have went after. My guess is it'll be a mix of the IL type kids (though probably not as many as Petro used to land) and the more relatively unknown Canadians/box-background kids. Remains to be seen how the assistant coaches affect recruiting beyond that.

If you look at the rankings over the last decade you see duke, unc, maryland, uva, denver notre dame who have had their may success. You see albany loyola and towson who never had elite classes have good programs and then you see us, georgeotown, harvard whose classes really haven't lived up to the billings and I don't know what to make of syracuse. Petro had a lot of highly ranked recruits, we have a lot of veterans leave, that has to opened up a lot of scholarship $ for milliman to play with.

[Laxsmitty]

Lot of movement

Blue Jays goaltending and defense were at best average. After Foley and Rapine left , thought Gomez had shot to see some field but he didnt though only six games in.

Surprised Gainey left, thought he'd figure this year . Is Kirson now leading candidate to be goalie? He's solid.

I suspect all the goalies are thinking Kirson is the starter for the next two-years. He was one of the best goalies in the Big Ten this past year and was recruited by the new coaching staff to come to Hopkins to solidify that position. I am not saying that the other goalies are not capable but for the new coaching staff it helps to have someone in net you are familiar with as D-coach worked with him/helped recruit him to Ohio State. Short of Kirson getting hurt or deciding he does not like Baltimore hard to see coaching staff not be biased to him for next two-years. Also with 5 goalies on the roster if you are not the starter or back-up there will be a lot of dead time in practice for the others. It would have been nice to see Gainey stay for he is a big goalie like Kirson and had shown some promise when he was given the opportunity to play in fall games. He also had a nice save on Coach Benson in the alumni game as a freshmen.

All of this comes down to them playing well as a team and the coaches implementing a system that they can follow. Hopkins always has the talent it is just a question of putting it together on the field. Let's hope we can have spring sports and see Hopkins Men's and Women's lacrosse program hit the field.

[a fan]

You see albany loyola and towson who never had elite classes

You can't possibly be serious.

[HopFan16]

You see albany loyola and towson who never had elite classes

You can't possibly be serious.

I agree with '06 on virtually nothing, but he is absolutely right here. Pretty sure he's just stating a fact about the IL class rankings, not making a value judgment about those schools' recruits. Those programs have all had good years in spite of not being ranked highly in the eyes of Inside Lacrosse. I don't think there's anything especially controversial in saying that. "Elite" in this instance likely refers only to IL's view and not his own.

Lot of movement

Blue Jays goaltending and defense were at best average. After Foley and Rapine left , thought Gomez had shot to see some field but he didnt though only six games in.

Surprised Gainey left, thought he'd figure this year . Is Kirson now leading candidate to be goalie? He's solid.

I suspect all the goalies are thinking Kirson is the starter for the next two-years. He was one of the best goalies in the Big Ten this past year and was recruited by the new coaching staff to come to Hopkins to solidify that position. I am not saying that the other goalies are not capable but for the new coaching staff it helps to have someone in net you are familiar with as D-coach worked with him/helped recruit him to Ohio State. Short of Kirson getting hurt or deciding he does not like Baltimore hard to see coaching staff not be biased to him for next two-years. Also with 5 goalies on the roster if you are not the starter or back-up there will be a lot of dead time in practice for the others. It would have been nice to see Gainey stay for he is a big goalie like Kirson and had shown some promise when he was given the opportunity to play in fall games. He also had a nice save on Coach Benson in the alumni game as a freshmen.

Kirson is of course the favorite to start but I would not necessarily say it's a fait accompli. Milliman and Koesterer surely realized—as anyone with an even cursory knowledge of Hopkins lacrosse would—that the goalie situation was subpar, and that the only guy on the roster with meaningful D1 game experience has a career % below 50. And so, if the opportunity presented itself—which it did—it makes sense they'd go out and get a solid goalie with Big Ten experience who was on his way to an impressive season when COVID turned out the lights. But this staff doesn't strike me as one that's going to play games either and I'd venture a guess that Kirson was guaranteed nothing. If another guy comes in after the offseason and is just lights out and makes it clear he needs to be on the field then they're going to put that guy out there.

[a fan]

I agree with '06 on virtually nothing, but he is absolutely right here. Pretty sure he's just stating a fact about the IL class rankings, not making a value judgment about those schools' recruits. Those programs have all had good years in spite of not being ranked highly in the eyes of Inside Lacrosse.

Ah. Got it.

Well...what does that tell you about IL's ability to forecast who does well, as JHU06 put it....in May?

[10stone5]

I agree with '06 on virtually nothing, but he is absolutely right here. Pretty sure he's just stating a fact about the IL class rankings, not making a value judgment about those schools' recruits. Those programs have all had good years in spite of not being ranked highly in the eyes of Inside Lacrosse.

Ah. Got it.
Well...what does that tell you about IL's ability to forecast who does well, as JHU06 put it....in May?

I don’t actually disagree with any of this,
but, just pointing out,
Towson did have a top xx IL class in 2013
and they got a top 5-10 transfer in Spencer Parks.

[Farfromgeneva]

Plus the Thompsons, Fields, Ierlan, Riordan, Nanticoke, etc. If anything it seems like Marr has almost underperformed since it’s been discussed often that Albany has become the Native/OCC school of choice over Cuse this past decade.

Sort of like the revisionist bit where no one knew about Pat Spencer and yet he was something like #7 as a Senior.