All things CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

DeBlasio threatening to lay of 22k workers if he doesn’t get federal help, so he says while chatting with Blitzer. Unreal.

… tactic he learned from Trump.

[Carroll81]

We still know nothing about this virus and its impact on the human body.

https://www.ucsf.edu/magazine/covid-body

I agree with you and I am not sure the people at UCSF are really helping. They seem to be doing lots of things and spending lots of money, but not helping. This is the statement that got me:

"“If we did a mass testing campaign on 300 million Americans right now, I think the rate of asymptomatic infection would be somewhere between 50% and 80% of cases,” Gandhi says."

So, there should be 150-240 million cases right now? Maybe I am misinterpreting. Otherwise, we should be at herd immunity already.

[wgdsr]

she means if they tested everyone, found all the people that have gotten a covid infection (measurable), 50-80% of those people would claim they didn't have/remember symptoms. in reality, at least some of those folks likely had some symptom(s) and didn't recognize it (elevated temperature, a cough, etc.), but many maybe don't. many/most estimates i've seen are on the lower end or below that.

the infection rate is probably somewhere between 25 and 50 million about now in the u.s.. potentially many more whose t cells killed the virus before it got any foothold, but that's a different conspiracy theory.

[Typical Lax Dad]

We still know nothing about this virus and its impact on the human body.

https://www.ucsf.edu/magazine/covid-body

I agree with you and I am not sure the people at UCSF are really helping. They seem to be doing lots of things and spending lots of money, but not helping. This is the statement that got me:

"“If we did a mass testing campaign on 300 million Americans right now, I think the rate of asymptomatic infection would be somewhere between 50% and 80% of cases,” Gandhi says."

So, there should be 150-240 million cases right now? Maybe I am misinterpreting. Otherwise, we should be at herd immunity already.

You are misinterpreting the statement. You may be assuming all 50-80% of the 300 million tested today would be positive. I believe she is saying for those that test positive out of the 300 million, 50-80% would be asymptomatic. So if 10% test positive today, 15 to 24 million people would be asymptomatic. You may have assumed that every test would result in a case today. The spread has not been that great.

[holmes435]

We still know nothing about this virus and its impact on the human body.

https://www.ucsf.edu/magazine/covid-body

I agree with you and I am not sure the people at UCSF are really helping. They seem to be doing lots of things and spending lots of money, but not helping. This is the statement that got me:

"“If we did a mass testing campaign on 300 million Americans right now, I think the rate of asymptomatic infection would be somewhere between 50% and 80% of cases,” Gandhi says."

So, there should be 150-240 million cases right now? Maybe I am misinterpreting. Otherwise, we should be at herd immunity already.

To add to the above posts, asymptomatic cases would represent 50%-80% of those 300 million Americans who tested positive. CDC was estimating 10x more Americans are infected than we have found, so if that's true you're looking at maybe 40-50 million Americans who would test positive if we tested everyone, with 50-80% of those 40-50 million positive cases being asymptomatic.

Herd immunity depends on the disease, and some estimates are around 70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. We'd need to get to 4-5 times the number of that estimated infected above to achieve herd immunity, which at the rate of infection based on those estimates would put us at herd immunity happening around January 2022 with 640,000 dead Americans and 70% of the population having contracted the virus, with varying long term health issues.

[wgdsr]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

[Typical Lax Dad]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

[wgdsr]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

all guesswork is where we're at.
the #hit15-20 story still works, for now.
if your story is right, we'd better get a good therapeutic. or a great one.

[jhu72]

Florida Elder Care in the news.

[a fan]

DeBlasio threatening to lay of 22k workers if he doesn’t get federal help, so he says while chatting with Blitzer. Unreal.

Keep messing with the big States, YA. There are 27 reps in the House from New York. Keep telling them that they won't get help when they need it......and when the tables are turned, as they always are....

[Bart]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

....and you know this how?

[youthathletics]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

(1)Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. (2)Could be 3 months. (3) I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

....and you know this how?

He has the highest post count....therefore he his omniscient. His words are the FanLax Gospel, let it be said.

FanLax: The Gospel according TLD 1: 1-3

[youthathletics]

DeBlasio threatening to lay of 22k workers if he doesn’t get federal help, so he says while chatting with Blitzer. Unreal.

Keep messing with the big States, YA. There are 27 reps in the House from New York. Keep telling them that they won't get help when they need it......and when the tables are turned, as they always are....

Or conversely, If those reps. keep messing w/the people of the state by taxing the hell outta them...maybe the people will get fed up and vote them out.

Your argument kinda proves how hooked the people can get on the gov't cash cow. A little time in the crucibles can do them some good.

[Typical Lax Dad]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

....and you know this how?

My fault. Many things I have read suggested that immunity will be temporary similar to a flu shot. There is a lot we don’t know and nothing has been confirmed so perhaps it could be longer. Have you read that immunity will be permanent?

[Bart]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

....and you know this how?

My fault. Many things I have read suggested that immunity will be temporary similar to a flu shot. There is a lot we don’t know and nothing has been confirmed so perhaps it could be longer. Have you read that immunity will be permanent?

I have not. If you have seen the opposite, I would love to read those.

I have read some things that infection leads to both memory T and memory B cell stimulation. If you want permanent immunity I would think you would need a robust memory B cell production like in the MMR vaccine. I am not expert but I would think at this point we do not have the data suggesting either way and will know more after the phase III trials.

It seems that everyone is caught up in the waning of the antibody response which is important in the immediate innate response. In my recollection these should decrease over time. The vaccine should develop an adaptive response and we do not know exactly what that response is, again in my non expert opinion, but should know more after the phase III trials. There does appear to be a robust T cell reaction.

This entire cascade of events is so complex it gives me headaches.

[JoeMauer89]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

Right that immunity could be temporary, but most evidence is pointing to it being at least 10-12 months. Even if it is only temporary, our T-Cell's and immunity memory will make the "second time" a person potential contracts COVID-19 extremely mild, with many not even realizing they have it unless tested again. In regards to immunity, this may be a "novel virus" but it doesn't flout the laws of coronaviruses which are based on clear scientific evidence for over 100 years. We have ZERO evidence that immunity is going to wane that quickly and that person will get infected again and deal with WORSE symptoms than the first time, that is pure myth/conjecture at this point.

Twins 10-2
JoeMauer89

[Typical Lax Dad]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

....and you know this how?

My fault. Many things I have read suggested that immunity will be temporary similar to a flu shot. There is a lot we don’t know and nothing has been confirmed so perhaps it could be longer. Have you read that immunity will be permanent?

I have not. If you have seen the opposite, I would love to read those.

I have read some things that infection leads to both memory T and memory B cell stimulation. If you want permanent immunity I would think you would need a robust memory B cell production like in the MMR vaccine. I am not expert but I would think at this point we do not have the data suggesting either way and will know more after the phase III trials.

It seems that everyone is caught up in the waning of the antibody response which is important in the immediate innate response. In my recollection these should decrease over time. The vaccine should develop an adaptive response and we do not know exactly what that response is, again in my non expert opinion, but should know more after the phase III trials. There does appear to be a robust T cell reaction.

This entire cascade of events is so complex it gives me headaches.

Thanks. You definitely know more about it than I do. I am an arm chair wannabe scientist. Do you know why we don’t get longer immunity with flu vaccines?

[Bart]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

....and you know this how?

My fault. Many things I have read suggested that immunity will be temporary similar to a flu shot. There is a lot we don’t know and nothing has been confirmed so perhaps it could be longer. Have you read that immunity will be permanent?

I have not. If you have seen the opposite, I would love to read those.

I have read some things that infection leads to both memory T and memory B cell stimulation. If you want permanent immunity I would think you would need a robust memory B cell production like in the MMR vaccine. I am not expert but I would think at this point we do not have the data suggesting either way and will know more after the phase III trials.

It seems that everyone is caught up in the waning of the antibody response which is important in the immediate innate response. In my recollection these should decrease over time. The vaccine should develop an adaptive response and we do not know exactly what that response is, again in my non expert opinion, but should know more after the phase III trials. There does appear to be a robust T cell reaction.

This entire cascade of events is so complex it gives me headaches.

Thanks. You definitely know more about it than I do. I am an arm chair wannabe scientist. Do you know why we don’t get longer immunity with flu vaccines?

That is the million dollar question. From my limited knowledge, for some reason the memory B cells response is not so robust. Sorry, that is all I got................

This may end up being exactly like a flu vaccine but I think it is too early to tell either way.

[wgdsr]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

....and you know this how?

My fault. Many things I have read suggested that immunity will be temporary similar to a flu shot. There is a lot we don’t know and nothing has been confirmed so perhaps it could be longer. Have you read that immunity will be permanent?

I have not. If you have seen the opposite, I would love to read those.

I have read some things that infection leads to both memory T and memory B cell stimulation. If you want permanent immunity I would think you would need a robust memory B cell production like in the MMR vaccine. I am not expert but I would think at this point we do not have the data suggesting either way and will know more after the phase III trials.

It seems that everyone is caught up in the waning of the antibody response which is important in the immediate innate response. In my recollection these should decrease over time. The vaccine should develop an adaptive response and we do not know exactly what that response is, again in my non expert opinion, but should know more after the phase III trials. There does appear to be a robust T cell reaction.

This entire cascade of events is so complex it gives me headaches.

Thanks. You definitely know more about it than I do. I am an arm chair wannabe scientist. Do you know why we don’t get longer immunity with flu vaccines?

you can get a lot of info on flu vaccines/seasonal immunity in the acip posting here... at the top of the release and also halfway down. largely due to virus drift (mutation), match of strains produced in guessing that year's viruses as well as individual's immune responses:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrht ... enzaSeason

[RedFromMI]

70% of the US would need to have antibodies to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19.

i don't believe having antibodies is a requirement to having/being immune necessarily. it would be more can't either get it easily (antibodies being one way) or become infectious or both. not requiring antibodies per se. would change the math.

Immunity will be temporary....even with a vaccine. Could be 3 months. I am hoping for an effective therapeutic.

....and you know this how?

My fault. Many things I have read suggested that immunity will be temporary similar to a flu shot. There is a lot we don’t know and nothing has been confirmed so perhaps it could be longer. Have you read that immunity will be permanent?

I have not. If you have seen the opposite, I would love to read those.

I have read some things that infection leads to both memory T and memory B cell stimulation. If you want permanent immunity I would think you would need a robust memory B cell production like in the MMR vaccine. I am not expert but I would think at this point we do not have the data suggesting either way and will know more after the phase III trials.

It seems that everyone is caught up in the waning of the antibody response which is important in the immediate innate response. In my recollection these should decrease over time. The vaccine should develop an adaptive response and we do not know exactly what that response is, again in my non expert opinion, but should know more after the phase III trials. There does appear to be a robust T cell reaction.

This entire cascade of events is so complex it gives me headaches.

Thanks. You definitely know more about it than I do. I am an arm chair wannabe scientist. Do you know why we don’t get longer immunity with flu vaccines?

That is the million dollar question. From my limited knowledge, for some reason the memory B cells response is not so robust. Sorry, that is all I got................

This may end up being exactly like a flu vaccine but I think it is too early to tell either way.

Flu vaccine has to be remade because the number of strains is large - there is a whole set of mutations going on that makes the target a moving one.

So each year's vaccine in the West is generally made up of vaccines that target the researcher's best guess of what strains are emerging in population dense places like China, etc. Those are what get put into a particular year's vaccine. If they guess well, then the vaccine is quite effective, guess wrong, or the particular vaccine component for a particular strain just does not work as well, and you are more likely to have a bad year for the flu.

You also have variations that are quite similar to flu viruses in the past, so sometimes there is remnant immunity for older populations that at least partially protect them, and then you might have a down year for deaths in older people...