All things CoronaVirus

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/sport/mi ... -spt-intl/

[seacoaster]

"Its not an economic crisis vs a healthcare crisis but a healthcare crisis vs a healthcare crisis. The damage to children by not opening schools is a greater health risk to a greater population than exposure to the virus.

The risk of children becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 is very low, while pediatricians emphasize the beneficial role schools play in children’s social development and mental health.

According to the CDC, prolonged school closures could worsen achievement gaps across income levels and racial and ethnic groups."

Would love to see the data that underlies these, umm, assertions. And the further explanation concerning kids as carriers of the virus home to parents, grandparents and other people in the ecosystem.

[kramerica.inc]

"Its not an economic crisis vs a healthcare crisis but a healthcare crisis vs a healthcare crisis. The damage to children by not opening schools is a greater health risk to a greater population than exposure to the virus.

The risk of children becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 is very low, while pediatricians emphasize the beneficial role schools play in children’s social development and mental health.

According to the CDC, prolonged school closures could worsen achievement gaps across income levels and racial and ethnic groups."

Would love to see the data that underlies these, umm, assertions. And the further explanation concerning kids as carriers of the virus home to parents, grandparents and other people in the ecosystem.

This is spot on. On the scholastic side it's been shown and proven a ton: Many parents are not involved in their children's education. The more a kid is in a nurturing environment and has an involved parent, the better they perform. The less supervision/involvement they get, the worse.

Do people think parents who are generally uninvolved will do a better job when they are required to do MORE?

[youthathletics]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/sport/mi ... -spt-intl/

Can you prove him wrong?

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/sport/mi ... -spt-intl/

Can you prove him wrong?

Can you prove he is right?

BTW: I love his game. Big time talent. The Knicks should have drafted him. Bol Bol is nice too. Two guys with injuries that slipped but top 5 talents when healthy. Denver is well run.

[wgdsr]

Maryland, thank goodness, is recognizing that, though we're in better shape than many states, we nevertheless have more virus in the community than we did in March and a new crushing outbreak is but weeks away if we don't double down on the vigilance.

maryland looks like there could be quite a bit less virus in the state now vs late march. they got hit pretty good. depends on a lot of factors but unless their fatality jumps 3 or 4 fold in the next 3+ weeks it'd point to their numbers being down.

tough to tell what's around the coast and getting pulled for numbers out of state for all the beach states in the summer. and they are on a trajectory they'd probably like to flatten if it isn't all test availability or tracing lately.

[6ftstick]

"Its not an economic crisis vs a healthcare crisis but a healthcare crisis vs a healthcare crisis. The damage to children by not opening schools is a greater health risk to a greater population than exposure to the virus.

The risk of children becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 is very low, while pediatricians emphasize the beneficial role schools play in children’s social development and mental health.

According to the CDC, prolonged school closures could worsen achievement gaps across income levels and racial and ethnic groups."

Would love to see the data that underlies these, umm, assertions. And the further explanation concerning kids as carriers of the virus home to parents, grandparents and other people in the ecosystem.

[jhu72]

A new interesting take on how the immune system works. It explains the wide dispersion of reactions to COVID.

Yes...BBC had a similar article a couple weeks ago: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 ... eU6Oy9P4pI

Maybe if we stopped being such germaphobes, demanding antibiotics every Dr.s visit, and eating food that is a about 1 compound away from being plastic, we could build stronger immune systems and get our T-Cell counts higher.

My gut feeling tells me these guys are on to something. If they are correct, can prove it, they win a Nobel in medicine for the proof a few years from now. Obviously, this isn't about COVID specifically, it is a much broader discovery.

My favorite line: "That has been now confirmed in different continents, different labs, with different techniques, which is one of the hallmarks of when you start to actually really believe that something is scientifically well-established because it's found independently by different studies and different labs," said Sette.

Yup. How science works.

[jhu72]

USA's # 1 snake oil salesman:












and the cult of trumpism:

[seacoaster]

"Its not an economic crisis vs a healthcare crisis but a healthcare crisis vs a healthcare crisis. The damage to children by not opening schools is a greater health risk to a greater population than exposure to the virus.

The risk of children becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 is very low, while pediatricians emphasize the beneficial role schools play in children’s social development and mental health.

According to the CDC, prolonged school closures could worsen achievement gaps across income levels and racial and ethnic groups."

Would love to see the data that underlies these, umm, assertions. And the further explanation concerning kids as carriers of the virus home to parents, grandparents and other people in the ecosystem.

This is spot on. On the scholastic side it's been shown and proven a ton: Many parents are not involved in their children's education. The more a kid is in a nurturing environment and has an involved parent, the better they perform. The less supervision/involvement they get, the worse.

Do people think parents who are generally uninvolved will do a better job when they are required to do MORE?

I don't really doubt any of that. But whatever the data shows in terms of scholastic achievement and involvement, it has to be balanced against the risks of the virus to the kid, family, extended family and community. I know: stating the obvious. But it is not some slam dunk that, under these circumstances, the kids must be in school receiving seven or eight hours of face to face instruction five days a week.

[seacoaster]

Meanwhile, Mr. "Slow the Testing Down Please" is requiring compulsory testing for his acolytes:

White House staff received an email this morning notifying them of random Covid-19 testing beginning today across the executive complex. Per the email, “Failure to report to testing will be considered a refusal to test.”

https://twitter.com/GabbyOrr_/status/12 ... 6095237123

[jhu72]

Meanwhile, Mr. "Slow the Testing Down Please" is requiring compulsory testing for his acolytes:

White House staff received an email this morning notifying them of random Covid-19 testing beginning today across the executive complex. Per the email, “Failure to report to testing will be considered a refusal to test.”

https://twitter.com/GabbyOrr_/status/12 ... 6095237123

… when I saw the news report, I laughed out loud. What a f*ing joke these bozos are.

Man, those democrats are really good at hoaxes!

[ggait]

Adm Giroir on MTP yesterday. Pretty reasonable stuff. Delivered in a very simple and clear way. If this would be repeated consistently a few thousand times, we could have this under control pretty fast. Especially #4 and #5. That's how you get the economy to re-open.

1. The virus is currently too big for testing and contact tracing to be effective. At these levels, you can't test your way out of this.

2. Testing and tracing really are only measures to keep an already low virus level low.

3. To get the virus to manage-able size: avoid crowded indoor places and crowds generally; wear a mask; wash your hands.

4. We have really good data now. If we have 85-90% of people wearing a mask, staying away from indoor dining, bars and crowds, you get the same results as a complete shut down.

5. Rigorous mitigation steps have been how other countries have gotten the virus down. Not testing and tracing.

6. HCQ showed some promise initially. But there's now been five randomized placebo controlled trials that show no benefit. Time to move on to other things (immune plasma, Remdesivir, steroids, vaccines) that might work. FYI, doctors are evidence based and ignore Twitter in deciding what drugs to prescribe.

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/ ... 9440837642

[jhu72]

Adm Giroir on MTP yesterday. Pretty reasonable stuff. Delivered in a very simple and clear way. If this would be repeated consistently a few thousand times, we could have this under control pretty fast. Especially #4 and #5. That's how you get the economy to re-open.

1. The virus is currently too big for testing and contact tracing to be effective. At these levels, you can't test your way out of this.

2. Testing and tracing really are only measures to keep an already low virus level low.

3. To get the virus to manage-able size: avoid crowded indoor places and crowds generally; wear a mask; wash your hands.

4. We have really good data now. If we have 85-90% of people wearing a mask, staying away from indoor dining, bars and crowds, you get the same results as a complete shut down.

5. Rigorous mitigation steps have been how other countries have gotten the virus down. Not testing and tracing.

6. HCQ showed some promise initially. But there's now been five randomized placebo controlled trials that show no benefit. Time to move on to other things (immune plasma, Remdesivir, steroids, vaccines) that might work. FYI, doctors are evidence based and ignore Twitter in deciding what drugs to prescribe.

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/ ... 9440837642

+1 (I would qualify that as most doctors).

[a fan]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/sport/mi ... -spt-intl/

Can you prove him wrong?

Yes. The logic is sophomoric and stupid on its face. Or I guess that's the wrong word since he never completed his sophomore year in college.

Governments already had "control" of people BEFORE the pandemic. Or did he forget that? And do I REALLY need to explain that this is the case?

[wgdsr]

Adm Giroir on MTP yesterday. Pretty reasonable stuff. Delivered in a very simple and clear way. If this would be repeated consistently a few thousand times, we could have this under control pretty fast. Especially #4 and #5. That's how you get the economy to re-open.

1. The virus is currently too big for testing and contact tracing to be effective. At these levels, you can't test your way out of this.

2. Testing and tracing really are only measures to keep an already low virus level low.

3. To get the virus to manage-able size: avoid crowded indoor places and crowds generally; wear a mask; wash your hands.

4. We have really good data now. If we have 85-90% of people wearing a mask, staying away from indoor dining, bars and crowds, you get the same results as a complete shut down.

5. Rigorous mitigation steps have been how other countries have gotten the virus down. Not testing and tracing.

6. HCQ showed some promise initially. But there's now been five randomized placebo controlled trials that show no benefit. Time to move on to other things (immune plasma, Remdesivir, steroids, vaccines) that might work. FYI, doctors are evidence based and ignore Twitter in deciding what drugs to prescribe.

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/ ... 9440837642

it'll be interesting to see what testing levels we can get to. as long as the demand is there, my suspicion is we'll continue to climb at 200k per month at least.
if we're finally unleashing some other avenues like private and university labs, maybe the turnaround time can get quicker.
with the demand curve for colleges at least, that's necessary. and of course throw in the ongoing debate of localized school decisions, hopefully they'll have access to doing something.
increased testing can only help all the way around. maybe the accuracy improves, too.
#3 is kinda 4 also but as important. behavior matters.

i suspect we'll get good early or pre hcq trials from somewhere, the timeline may just be that it takes a while in science and a pandemic doesn't always truncate that in months. same with all other possibilities. i'd imagine a number are in the wings for dozens of potential therapies. meantime, for now it seems if anyone wants to search out hcq, they can get it in a doctor patient relationship most areas of the country.

[a fan]

1. The virus is currently too big for testing and contact tracing to be effective. At these levels, you can't test your way out of this.

That's true on a macro level, but entirely untrue on a micro level. We'll figure that out when we hit flu season, and productivity goes to hell because anyone with so much as the sniffles will be forced to stay home because we can't tell if its Covid or just a cold.

[kramerica.inc]

"Its not an economic crisis vs a healthcare crisis but a healthcare crisis vs a healthcare crisis. The damage to children by not opening schools is a greater health risk to a greater population than exposure to the virus.

The risk of children becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 is very low, while pediatricians emphasize the beneficial role schools play in children’s social development and mental health.

According to the CDC, prolonged school closures could worsen achievement gaps across income levels and racial and ethnic groups."

Would love to see the data that underlies these, umm, assertions. And the further explanation concerning kids as carriers of the virus home to parents, grandparents and other people in the ecosystem.

This is spot on. On the scholastic side it's been shown and proven a ton: Many parents are not involved in their children's education. The more a kid is in a nurturing environment and has an involved parent, the better they perform. The less supervision/involvement they get, the worse.

Do people think parents who are generally uninvolved will do a better job when they are required to do MORE?

I don't really doubt any of that. But whatever the data shows in terms of scholastic achievement and involvement, it has to be balanced against the risks of the virus to the kid, family, extended family and community. I know: stating the obvious. But it is not some slam dunk that, under these circumstances, the kids must be in school receiving seven or eight hours of face to face instruction five days a week.

I agree. In addition to acadmic concerns, what is sensible for some, may not work for another due to risk factors and household susceptibility etc. Like most cases in education, this is a case where one size does not fit all.

[ChairmanOfTheBoard]

Want to run some models on students return to campus? Here is a models that allows you to alter various parameters in students returning to campus. It is rather intresting.

https://epimodel.shinyapps.io/covid-university/

Neat

bart you have a super high value-to-post ratio.

[njbill]

1. The virus is currently too big for testing and contact tracing to be effective. At these levels, you can't test your way out of this.

That's true on a macro level, but entirely untrue on a micro level. We'll figure that out when we hit flu season, and productivity goes to hell because anyone with so much as the sniffles will be forced to stay home because we can't tell if its Covid or just a cold.

Good point. I hope the good doctor meant testing AND contact tracing (i.e., coupled together) and not that the virus is too big for testing alone. I certainly don’t agree with that. (I agree the virus has spread way too much for contact tracing.)

The lack of universal, accurate testing with quick (hours at most) turn around is still a major problem. If I get the sniffles or have some Covid symptom, I’d like to be able to drive uptown, get a test, get the results, and then come home. If I don’t have Covid, fine. I can go about my business. If I do, I will quarantine myself.

We already have an experiment of sorts with universal testing: the sports teams. It seems a large majority of those who test positive are asymptomatic. If they weren’t pro athletes, in all likelihood they wouldn’t have gone to get tested, and we wouldn’t know they are running around spreading the virus.

It boggles my mind that we have been talking about improving testing for months now and that we have evidently only made incremental progress.