https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-outbreak
so we had 50 shots at contact and tracing.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:43 pmhttps://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-outbreak
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
I wonder if we are making progress: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... utType=amp
Maybe we need Operation Ludicrous Speed
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2 ... oronavirus
I am not sure. I saw France rolled out an app but not much usage.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:08 pmso we had 50 shots at contact and tracing.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:43 pmhttps://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-outbreak
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
I wonder if we are making progress: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... utType=amp
Maybe we need Operation Ludicrous Speed
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2 ... oronavirus
how many succeeded so far?
the levels proposed at most states (for tracers anyway) exceeded or matched those of south korea. that was the bar that i saw.
who won with contact and tracing? 50 shots. i haven't googled, i looked at cali (brought up by a poster and blamed on testing), and mass. set up as a stalwart to emulate and blew up.
i know this seems like a common theme.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:26 pmI am not sure. I saw France rolled out an app but not much usage.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:08 pmso we had 50 shots at contact and tracing.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:43 pmhttps://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-outbreak
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
I wonder if we are making progress: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... utType=amp
Maybe we need Operation Ludicrous Speed
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2 ... oronavirus
how many succeeded so far?
the levels proposed at most states (for tracers anyway) exceeded or matched those of south korea. that was the bar that i saw.
who won with contact and tracing? 50 shots. i haven't googled, i looked at cali (brought up by a poster and blamed on testing), and mass. set up as a stalwart to emulate and blew up.
50 shots = 50 states? Seems like federal coordination would help for 1 country.
https://elemental.medium.com/amp/p/47a2dbccc020
50 people doing 50 different things doesn’t make a lot of sense. It’s a national problem which needs some assistance on a national level. Someone should be working on it. Think of the money being wasted sending a secret police to Portland. I don’t know what another administration would do...just like I wouldn’t know what a different coaching staff would do. The people in charge today are the people in charge today. I can’t worry about the last coach or the next coach.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:45 pmi know this seems like a common theme.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:26 pmI am not sure. I saw France rolled out an app but not much usage.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:08 pmso we had 50 shots at contact and tracing.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:43 pmhttps://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-outbreak
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
I wonder if we are making progress: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... utType=amp
Maybe we need Operation Ludicrous Speed
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2 ... oronavirus
how many succeeded so far?
the levels proposed at most states (for tracers anyway) exceeded or matched those of south korea. that was the bar that i saw.
who won with contact and tracing? 50 shots. i haven't googled, i looked at cali (brought up by a poster and blamed on testing), and mass. set up as a stalwart to emulate and blew up.
50 shots = 50 states? Seems like federal coordination would help for 1 country.
https://elemental.medium.com/amp/p/47a2dbccc020
i'm not expecting anyone to come off their mark.
it's great to have a company policy. even better to have an infrastructure that supports that policy.
but if you don't and have to work in your divisions? what works better and more efficiently? you and 10 peeps for getting your eesh done or 500 across 50 divisions?
if your infrastructure is primarily peeps contacting peeps (not really technology unless you think a notice from an app is going to get someone possibly infected to stay in their room for 14 days without going to the mailbox)... what's the most logical way to think you could have some success? create guidelines and keep it local?
or hear from washington? the national test and trace guys... the answer i've seen is people writing it. not implementation. if someone writes up a "here's how a u.s. national test and tracing program would work and how it differs from the failed states' programs", i'd be happy to critique it.
otherwise, meh.
Tracking & tracing is not a new novel concept. State, County & Local Health Depts had the capability already, just not to the scale required for a pandemic of this scope.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:15 pm50 people doing 50 different things doesn’t make a lot of sense. It’s a national problem which needs some assistance on a national level. Someone should be working on it. Think of the money being wasted sending a secret police to Portland. I don’t know what another administration would do...just like I wouldn’t know what a different coaching staff would do. The people in charge today are the people in charge today. I can’t worry about the last coach or the next coach.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:45 pmi know this seems like a common theme.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:26 pmI am not sure. I saw France rolled out an app but not much usage.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:08 pmso we had 50 shots at contact and tracing.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:43 pmhttps://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-outbreak
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
I wonder if we are making progress: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... utType=amp
Maybe we need Operation Ludicrous Speed
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2 ... oronavirus
how many succeeded so far?
the levels proposed at most states (for tracers anyway) exceeded or matched those of south korea. that was the bar that i saw.
who won with contact and tracing? 50 shots. i haven't googled, i looked at cali (brought up by a poster and blamed on testing), and mass. set up as a stalwart to emulate and blew up.
50 shots = 50 states? Seems like federal coordination would help for 1 country.
https://elemental.medium.com/amp/p/47a2dbccc020
i'm not expecting anyone to come off their mark.
it's great to have a company policy. even better to have an infrastructure that supports that policy.
but if you don't and have to work in your divisions? what works better and more efficiently? you and 10 peeps for getting your eesh done or 500 across 50 divisions?
if your infrastructure is primarily peeps contacting peeps (not really technology unless you think a notice from an app is going to get someone possibly infected to stay in their room for 14 days without going to the mailbox)... what's the most logical way to think you could have some success? create guidelines and keep it local?
or hear from washington? the national test and trace guys... the answer i've seen is people writing it. not implementation. if someone writes up a "here's how a u.s. national test and tracing program would work and how it differs from the failed states' programs", i'd be happy to critique it.
otherwise, meh.
National strategy with local execution. Local input would guide the development of a strategy.
I don't have a mark. I just don't think it's realistic to expect a national system to work in a nation as large & decentralized as the US, where most domestic govt functions that interact with the entire population are administered via state & local govts.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:46 pm no offense, and as i said before i don't expect you to come off your mark.. saying something isn't doing. a "national strategy" for it was in place... guidelines like everyrhing else. if there was some sort of national database that was supposed to be created in a moment's time, you probably know how those roll out on a company level. from.our best and brightest. at the federal level. where you are as strong as your weakest link.
we can't even get ppe to our nursing homes. and we're going to run a national test and trace program.
Feds should help. Taking what is in place at state and local levels and determining how best to leverage it. A regional approach would be a place to start.old salt wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:38 pmTracking & tracing is not a new novel concept. State, County & Local Health Depts had the capability already, just not to the scale required for a pandemic of this scope.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:15 pm50 people doing 50 different things doesn’t make a lot of sense. It’s a national problem which needs some assistance on a national level. Someone should be working on it. Think of the money being wasted sending a secret police to Portland. I don’t know what another administration would do...just like I wouldn’t know what a different coaching staff would do. The people in charge today are the people in charge today. I can’t worry about the last coach or the next coach.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:45 pmi know this seems like a common theme.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:26 pmI am not sure. I saw France rolled out an app but not much usage.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:08 pmso we had 50 shots at contact and tracing.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:43 pmhttps://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-outbreak
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
I wonder if we are making progress: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... utType=amp
Maybe we need Operation Ludicrous Speed
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2 ... oronavirus
how many succeeded so far?
the levels proposed at most states (for tracers anyway) exceeded or matched those of south korea. that was the bar that i saw.
who won with contact and tracing? 50 shots. i haven't googled, i looked at cali (brought up by a poster and blamed on testing), and mass. set up as a stalwart to emulate and blew up.
50 shots = 50 states? Seems like federal coordination would help for 1 country.
https://elemental.medium.com/amp/p/47a2dbccc020
i'm not expecting anyone to come off their mark.
it's great to have a company policy. even better to have an infrastructure that supports that policy.
but if you don't and have to work in your divisions? what works better and more efficiently? you and 10 peeps for getting your eesh done or 500 across 50 divisions?
if your infrastructure is primarily peeps contacting peeps (not really technology unless you think a notice from an app is going to get someone possibly infected to stay in their room for 14 days without going to the mailbox)... what's the most logical way to think you could have some success? create guidelines and keep it local?
or hear from washington? the national test and trace guys... the answer i've seen is people writing it. not implementation. if someone writes up a "here's how a u.s. national test and tracing program would work and how it differs from the failed states' programs", i'd be happy to critique it.
otherwise, meh.
National strategy with local execution. Local input would guide the development of a strategy.
Do you build upon the existing structure or impose something new from the top down ?
Is the problem having the trackers & tracers, or first -- not enough test kits, & now -- not enough lab capacity quick enough ?
S Korea had an incredible tech assisted system already in place.
That's not something that can be replicated after the fact.
Yeah -- Petey's unbroken streak for getting everything wrong is approaching the DiMaggio level:Yup, it's also created quite a number of google PHDs, many of whom are phukkin idiots.
See Peter Brown.
Can be helpful to put the current situation in the context of the New York outbreak in March/April. This is daily fatalities on a per capita basis (fatalities per million inhabitants) for NY, FL, TX and AZ.
My emphasis on that last sentence. NY made mistakes, but there are a whole lot of states who mistakenly or even intentionally ignored them instead of learning from them.One thing I’ve noticed in this thread is the effort to explain why Florida now has roughly the same amounted of lab confirmed cases as New York and yet vastly fewer deaths. This is mostly a misunderstanding. To a very limited degree higher fatalities are likely due to an improved standard of care during the outbreak in Florida - better understanding of how to treat the disease and hospitals not overwhelmed. But the big difference is that the number of cases aren’t remotely similar.
The key is **lab confirmed** cases. For most of the outbreak in New York testing capacity was extremely limited. Most cases were never diagnosed. If we had July testing capacity in March and April it’s likely that New York’s daily cases count at the peak would have been 5 to 10 times higher. And probably closer to 10x.
One reason we know this is simply from the death toll itself. But we know it in more direct ways too. From March 28th to April 15th test positivity in New York averaged 47%. Wildly higher than any other state has ever been at. More concretely, post outbreak serology tests estimated that roughly 20% of NYC’s population of 8.7 million had been infected. So we’ll over 2 million people. That’s just in New York City. It doesn’t count the near suburbs to the north and Long Island. Many cases are being missed in today’s Crisis States too.
But the multiples are radically different. People are drawing various conclusions from this misunderstanding - that covid is now less lethal, that the deaths are still coming, that NY just botched the situation, etc. But again, the premise is false. Vastly more people were in New York than any of the other states like CA, FL, TX, etc. now why that was the case is another question. There are three big reasons. The first and most important is that the lack of testing meant that the outbreak raged out of control for weeks before anyone actually knew it was happening or was doing anything about it. Genomic analysis now strongly suggests that the New York outbreak began late in the second week of February. So if we’d had the daily testing charts we would have seen the trend line arching up in the middle of February. But no meaningful efforts to combat it started until six weeks later, around March 20th. Why? No testing. No one knew what was happening. The other cause was a failure of government leaders, particularly Bill Deblasio but also governor Cuomo.
The writing was on the wall but deblasio firmly resisted shutting down or even closing the schools. For most of those six weeks you can’t really blame them because they had no way of knowing what was happening because of the testing failure at the national level.
But even without testing, they likely should have shut everything down a week earlier than they did. That would have made a big difference. Again: DeBlasio. The third factor is population density. New York has by far the highest population density of anywhere in the United States. It’s possible to control covid in super high population density cities. NY is showing that now but so have Hong Kong, Tokyo and many other cities. But if you let a full blown outbreak run free with basically zero mitigation for six weeks the consequences in a city with such density and subway and bus use is going to be catastrophic, which of course it was.
Should be obvious but NY largely had to confront covid with no good tools and very limited knowledge. The present crisis states had pretty solid roadmaps for mitigation, though still few effective medical interventions, and basically chose to ignore the roadmap.
wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:15 am penn state had us at 8.3 million covid infections for the last 3 weeks in march.
horse out of barn.
if anywhere near accurate, means we were clocking 250 - 800 k infections per day on a rise.
the hope is that daily, nationwide, we're now at 200-300 k and can run it down given that we now have 750k tests per day and rising. and bring the infection level spread down to 150 k or so in the intermediate term with more average case identification per infection. that alone should help reduce spread, help overall fatalities.
Any chance you could stop with the nonsense of Democrats not wanting a vaccine, wanting the economy in shambles, wanting as many deaths as possible, etc. I don't listen to Fox for a reason. It's wrong and offensive. You are a prolific poster here, but say nothing, over and over and over.Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:18 am Well boys, final trials of Covid vaccine have begun.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... -in-people
I am predicting that the American scientists and entrepreneurs will win, and that the negative nabob Democrats will lose.
Never underestimate Americans. Especially where and when the profit incentive exists.
Back to work!!!!!! (this might be irrelevant advice for most Dems as many of them don't work and those that do don't want to, but still, for the normals out there, let's get back at it!!!)
seacoaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:22 amAny chance you could stop with the nonsense of Democrats not wanting a vaccine, wanting the economy in shambles, wanting as many deaths as possible, etc. I don't listen to Fox for a reason. It's wrong and offensive. You are a prolific poster here, but say nothing, over and over and over.Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:18 am Well boys, final trials of Covid vaccine have begun.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... -in-people
I am predicting that the American scientists and entrepreneurs will win, and that the negative nabob Democrats will lose.
Never underestimate Americans. Especially where and when the profit incentive exists.
Back to work!!!!!! (this might be irrelevant advice for most Dems as many of them don't work and those that do don't want to, but still, for the normals out there, let's get back at it!!!)
Could you just try to say something meaningful?
Re: The Nation's Financial Condition
Post by Peter Brown » Sun May 10, 2020 2:43 pm
If Trump bails out blue states from their pending economic calamity, you better be long gold, or better yet, own real estate in red states.
Because when the Democratic Party becomes this woman (and it's going to happen), not one company will want to stay in a blue state:
https://nypost.com/2020/05/10/californi ... ove-tesla/
Musk needs to uproot and get his team to Texas, stat. Don't play their game; leave and don't look back. You are only buying a small window of time compromising with these leeches. You do not compromise with people who despise job creators.
However the turnaround time on getting results is still many days in most cases. This makes the tests virtually useless in stopping spread, because people do not isolate until they get the results.
Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:18 am Well boys, final trials of Covid vaccine have begun.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... -in-people
I am predicting that the American scientists and entrepreneurs will win, and that the negative nabob Democrats will lose.
Never underestimate Americans. Especially where and when the profit incentive exists.
As usual, Petey ignores this is socialism at work. Do you know what the NIH is, Petey? Feel free to look it up, if that helps. 
a fan wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:08 pmPeter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:18 am Well boys, final trials of Covid vaccine have begun.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... -in-people
I am predicting that the American scientists and entrepreneurs will win, and that the negative nabob Democrats will lose.
Never underestimate Americans. Especially where and when the profit incentive exists.
And Taxpayers are paying for all the risk, Pete. That's cool with you, right?
You wouldn't know what a free market was if it fell on you, Pete.
Moderna wouldn't be in phase one without Uncle Sam, Pete. And, of course, because of guys like you who so desperately want to cling to the idea that this is capitalism at work-----Taxpayers won't collect a penny on the sale of this vaccine if it happens to work.
Really outpunching your weightclass today, Pete! Way to go!
lightweight?Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:20 pma fan wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:08 pmPeter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:18 am Well boys, final trials of Covid vaccine have begun.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... -in-people
I am predicting that the American scientists and entrepreneurs will win, and that the negative nabob Democrats will lose.
Never underestimate Americans. Especially where and when the profit incentive exists.
And Taxpayers are paying for all the risk, Pete. That's cool with you, right?
You wouldn't know what a free market was if it fell on you, Pete.
Moderna wouldn't be in phase one without Uncle Sam, Pete. And, of course, because of guys like you who so desperately want to cling to the idea that this is capitalism at work-----Taxpayers won't collect a penny on the sale of this vaccine if it happens to work.
Really outpunching your weightclass today, Pete! Way to go!
BMI of 21 thank you!
Also, I don't recall us discussing what the cap table of this joint venture is. Do you know who is putting in what and what their % ownership is?
