https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... -of-covidfTruck driver posts regrets about party a day before dying of coronavirus
All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
… apparently some pretty nice countries think so
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- youthathletics
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
wait...you all are okay with being on a flight in tight quarters. Seems the Brits are no smarter than us.
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“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
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“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Rat lickers
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Re: Re:
No more or less than this:wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:03 pmok. so what does your "prophylactic" study tell you it tells us about its use and what does it not prevent under what circumstances? according to the study.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:45 pmused Google. New England Journal of Medicine, randomized, double blind, controlled study post exposure prophylactic...no benefit over placebo.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:39 pmSo, you don't know if such a study was done?wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:11 pmc'mon md. you threw it out there.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:07 pmuhh ohh, won't be the first time I've been wrong.wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:03 pmMDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:47 amWe know it's not a good prophylactic because that's been studied, ...
this is not accurate. we must all be careful not to propogate false narratives here on fanlax. it is too crucial to society to do otherwise!!
You telling me no one has bothered to do any sort of controlled study on HCQ as a prophylactic?
Or were the early analyses so overwhelming that such was tossed as actually too dangerous?
check into it if you must.
and if you're buying into the too dangerous narrative, for prophylaxis (pre-exposure particularly), for a trial no less... i don't know what to tell you. wait for news as it comes out.
I'm not buying into any of the narratives, wildly positive or wildly negative, I was just under the impression that the prophylactic claims were dumped based on actual study, not just wild, largely anecdotal claims. Am I mistaken?...again wouldn't be the first nor the last time!
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638
Does that mean my recollection was correct?
Here's a solid article. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06 ... t-covid-19
BACKGROUND
Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) occurs after exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For persons who are exposed, the standard of care is observation and quarantine. Whether hydroxychloroquine can prevent symptomatic infection after SARS-CoV-2 exposure is unknown.
METHODS
We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial across the United States and parts of Canada testing hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis. We enrolled adults who had household or occupational exposure to someone with confirmed Covid-19 at a distance of less than 6 ft for more than 10 minutes while wearing neither a face mask nor an eye shield (high-risk exposure) or while wearing a face mask but no eye shield (moderate-risk exposure). Within 4 days after exposure, we randomly assigned participants to receive either placebo or hydroxychloroquine (800 mg once, followed by 600 mg in 6 to 8 hours, then 600 mg daily for 4 additional days). The primary outcome was the incidence of either laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 or illness compatible with Covid-19 within 14 days.
RESULTS
We enrolled 821 asymptomatic participants. Overall, 87.6% of the participants (719 of 821) reported a high-risk exposure to a confirmed Covid-19 contact. The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%]); the absolute difference was −2.4 percentage points (95% confidence interval, −7.0 to 2.2; P=0.35). Side effects were more common with hydroxychloroquine than with placebo (40.1% vs. 16.8%), but no serious adverse reactions were reported.
CONCLUSIONS
After high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to Covid-19, hydroxychloroquine did not prevent illness compatible with Covid-19 or confirmed infection when used as postexposure prophylaxis within 4 days after exposure. (Funded by David Baszucki and Jan Ellison Baszucki and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04308668. opens in new tab.)
Re: Re:
so for the laymen on here, including me, what do you think it means?MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:09 pmNo more or less than this:wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:03 pmok. so what does your "prophylactic" study tell you it tells us about its use and what does it not prevent under what circumstances? according to the study.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:45 pmused Google. New England Journal of Medicine, randomized, double blind, controlled study post exposure prophylactic...no benefit over placebo.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:39 pmSo, you don't know if such a study was done?wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:11 pmc'mon md. you threw it out there.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:07 pmuhh ohh, won't be the first time I've been wrong.wgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:03 pmMDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:47 amWe know it's not a good prophylactic because that's been studied, ...
this is not accurate. we must all be careful not to propogate false narratives here on fanlax. it is too crucial to society to do otherwise!!
You telling me no one has bothered to do any sort of controlled study on HCQ as a prophylactic?
Or were the early analyses so overwhelming that such was tossed as actually too dangerous?
check into it if you must.
and if you're buying into the too dangerous narrative, for prophylaxis (pre-exposure particularly), for a trial no less... i don't know what to tell you. wait for news as it comes out.
I'm not buying into any of the narratives, wildly positive or wildly negative, I was just under the impression that the prophylactic claims were dumped based on actual study, not just wild, largely anecdotal claims. Am I mistaken?...again wouldn't be the first nor the last time!
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638
Does that mean my recollection was correct?
Here's a solid article. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06 ... t-covid-19
BACKGROUND
Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) occurs after exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For persons who are exposed, the standard of care is observation and quarantine. Whether hydroxychloroquine can prevent symptomatic infection after SARS-CoV-2 exposure is unknown.
METHODS
We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial across the United States and parts of Canada testing hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis. We enrolled adults who had household or occupational exposure to someone with confirmed Covid-19 at a distance of less than 6 ft for more than 10 minutes while wearing neither a face mask nor an eye shield (high-risk exposure) or while wearing a face mask but no eye shield (moderate-risk exposure). Within 4 days after exposure, we randomly assigned participants to receive either placebo or hydroxychloroquine (800 mg once, followed by 600 mg in 6 to 8 hours, then 600 mg daily for 4 additional days). The primary outcome was the incidence of either laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 or illness compatible with Covid-19 within 14 days.
RESULTS
We enrolled 821 asymptomatic participants. Overall, 87.6% of the participants (719 of 821) reported a high-risk exposure to a confirmed Covid-19 contact. The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%]); the absolute difference was −2.4 percentage points (95% confidence interval, −7.0 to 2.2; P=0.35). Side effects were more common with hydroxychloroquine than with placebo (40.1% vs. 16.8%), but no serious adverse reactions were reported.
CONCLUSIONS
After high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to Covid-19, hydroxychloroquine did not prevent illness compatible with Covid-19 or confirmed infection when used as postexposure prophylaxis within 4 days after exposure. (Funded by David Baszucki and Jan Ellison Baszucki and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04308668. opens in new tab.)
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
It means it doesn’t work.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Last edited by Typical Lax Dad on Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“I wish you would!”
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
“I wish you would!”
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
I rolled up the thread in this post, where you can find cahrts:
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you hone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. Stay safe.
I hope that he is wrong, as we could be looking at some terrible death totals in a couple of months...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you hone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. Stay safe.
I hope that he is wrong, as we could be looking at some terrible death totals in a couple of months...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
by cradleandshoot » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:57 am
Mr moderator, deactivate my account.
You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy.
This is cradle and shoot signing out.
Mr moderator, deactivate my account.
You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy.
This is cradle and shoot signing out.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
We never got it under control and moved 3 weeks to early in my opinion. I though we would see what we are about to see in October. It’s going to come quicker than I thought.CU88 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:46 pm I rolled up the thread in this post, where you can find cahrts:
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you hone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. Stay safe.
I hope that he is wrong, as we could be looking at some terrible death totals in a couple of months...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
“I wish you would!”
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
… now Mexico is closing part of the border - Sonora.
STAND AGAINST FASCISM
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
you were right on coming out too early.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:05 pmWe never got it under control and moved 3 weeks to early in my opinion. I though we would see what we are about to see in October. It’s going to come quicker than I thought.CU88 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:46 pm I rolled up the thread in this post, where you can find cahrts:
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you hone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. Stay safe.
I hope that he is wrong, as we could be looking at some terrible death totals in a couple of months...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
the fall thing i never got, no one showed why this would be a fall virus.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
We've always been a turd hole country to you and your buds.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
More people inside versus outsidewgdsr wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:39 pmyou were right on coming out too early.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:05 pmWe never got it under control and moved 3 weeks to early in my opinion. I though we would see what we are about to see in October. It’s going to come quicker than I thought.CU88 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:46 pm I rolled up the thread in this post, where you can find cahrts:
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you hone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. Stay safe.
I hope that he is wrong, as we could be looking at some terrible death totals in a couple of months...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
the fall thing i never got, no one showed why this would be a fall virus.
“I wish you would!”
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
6ftstick wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:43 pmWe've always been a turd hole country to you and your buds.
“I wish you would!”
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
this is the good stuff.