All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[CU77]

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Truck driver posts regrets about party a day before dying of coronavirus

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... -of-covidf

[Typical Lax Dad]

… another country doesn't want American visitors. Great Britain has announced we are on the their red list. MAGA

Does that make us a sh!t hole country?

[jhu72]

… another country doesn't want American visitors. Great Britain has announced we are on the their red list. MAGA

Does that make us a sh!t hole country?

… apparently some pretty nice countries think so

[youthathletics]

… another country doesn't want American visitors. Great Britain has announced we are on the their red list. MAGA

Does that make us a sh!t hole country?

wait...you all are okay with being on a flight in tight quarters. Seems the Brits are no smarter than us.

[ardilla secreta]

… another country doesn't want American visitors. Great Britain has announced we are on the their red list. MAGA

Does that make us a sh!t hole country?

Rat lickers

[MDlaxfan76]

We know it's not a good prophylactic because that's been studied, ...

this is not accurate. we must all be careful not to propogate false narratives here on fanlax. it is too crucial to society to do otherwise!!

uhh ohh, won't be the first time I've been wrong.

You telling me no one has bothered to do any sort of controlled study on HCQ as a prophylactic?
Or were the early analyses so overwhelming that such was tossed as actually too dangerous?

c'mon md. you threw it out there.
check into it if you must.

and if you're buying into the too dangerous narrative, for prophylaxis (pre-exposure particularly), for a trial no less... i don't know what to tell you. wait for news as it comes out.

So, you don't know if such a study was done?
I'm not buying into any of the narratives, wildly positive or wildly negative, I was just under the impression that the prophylactic claims were dumped based on actual study, not just wild, largely anecdotal claims. Am I mistaken?...again wouldn't be the first nor the last time!

used Google. New England Journal of Medicine, randomized, double blind, controlled study post exposure prophylactic...no benefit over placebo.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638

Does that mean my recollection was correct?

Here's a solid article. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06 ... t-covid-19

ok. so what does your "prophylactic" study tell you it tells us about its use and what does it not prevent under what circumstances? according to the study.

No more or less than this:
BACKGROUND
Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) occurs after exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For persons who are exposed, the standard of care is observation and quarantine. Whether hydroxychloroquine can prevent symptomatic infection after SARS-CoV-2 exposure is unknown.
METHODS
We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial across the United States and parts of Canada testing hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis. We enrolled adults who had household or occupational exposure to someone with confirmed Covid-19 at a distance of less than 6 ft for more than 10 minutes while wearing neither a face mask nor an eye shield (high-risk exposure) or while wearing a face mask but no eye shield (moderate-risk exposure). Within 4 days after exposure, we randomly assigned participants to receive either placebo or hydroxychloroquine (800 mg once, followed by 600 mg in 6 to 8 hours, then 600 mg daily for 4 additional days). The primary outcome was the incidence of either laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 or illness compatible with Covid-19 within 14 days.
RESULTS
We enrolled 821 asymptomatic participants. Overall, 87.6% of the participants (719 of 821) reported a high-risk exposure to a confirmed Covid-19 contact. The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%]); the absolute difference was −2.4 percentage points (95% confidence interval, −7.0 to 2.2; P=0.35). Side effects were more common with hydroxychloroquine than with placebo (40.1% vs. 16.8%), but no serious adverse reactions were reported.
CONCLUSIONS
After high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to Covid-19, hydroxychloroquine did not prevent illness compatible with Covid-19 or confirmed infection when used as postexposure prophylaxis within 4 days after exposure. (Funded by David Baszucki and Jan Ellison Baszucki and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04308668. opens in new tab.)

[wgdsr]

We know it's not a good prophylactic because that's been studied, ...

this is not accurate. we must all be careful not to propogate false narratives here on fanlax. it is too crucial to society to do otherwise!!

uhh ohh, won't be the first time I've been wrong.

You telling me no one has bothered to do any sort of controlled study on HCQ as a prophylactic?
Or were the early analyses so overwhelming that such was tossed as actually too dangerous?

c'mon md. you threw it out there.
check into it if you must.

and if you're buying into the too dangerous narrative, for prophylaxis (pre-exposure particularly), for a trial no less... i don't know what to tell you. wait for news as it comes out.

So, you don't know if such a study was done?
I'm not buying into any of the narratives, wildly positive or wildly negative, I was just under the impression that the prophylactic claims were dumped based on actual study, not just wild, largely anecdotal claims. Am I mistaken?...again wouldn't be the first nor the last time!

used Google. New England Journal of Medicine, randomized, double blind, controlled study post exposure prophylactic...no benefit over placebo.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638

Does that mean my recollection was correct?

Here's a solid article. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06 ... t-covid-19

ok. so what does your "prophylactic" study tell you it tells us about its use and what does it not prevent under what circumstances? according to the study.

No more or less than this:
BACKGROUND
Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) occurs after exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For persons who are exposed, the standard of care is observation and quarantine. Whether hydroxychloroquine can prevent symptomatic infection after SARS-CoV-2 exposure is unknown.
METHODS
We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial across the United States and parts of Canada testing hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis. We enrolled adults who had household or occupational exposure to someone with confirmed Covid-19 at a distance of less than 6 ft for more than 10 minutes while wearing neither a face mask nor an eye shield (high-risk exposure) or while wearing a face mask but no eye shield (moderate-risk exposure). Within 4 days after exposure, we randomly assigned participants to receive either placebo or hydroxychloroquine (800 mg once, followed by 600 mg in 6 to 8 hours, then 600 mg daily for 4 additional days). The primary outcome was the incidence of either laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 or illness compatible with Covid-19 within 14 days.
RESULTS
We enrolled 821 asymptomatic participants. Overall, 87.6% of the participants (719 of 821) reported a high-risk exposure to a confirmed Covid-19 contact. The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%]); the absolute difference was −2.4 percentage points (95% confidence interval, −7.0 to 2.2; P=0.35). Side effects were more common with hydroxychloroquine than with placebo (40.1% vs. 16.8%), but no serious adverse reactions were reported.
CONCLUSIONS
After high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to Covid-19, hydroxychloroquine did not prevent illness compatible with Covid-19 or confirmed infection when used as postexposure prophylaxis within 4 days after exposure. (Funded by David Baszucki and Jan Ellison Baszucki and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04308668. opens in new tab.)

so for the laymen on here, including me, what do you think it means?

[njbill]

It means it doesn’t work.

[Typical Lax Dad]

[wgdsr]

It means it doesn’t work.

you're a funny guy.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07 ... re-results

Why hasn’t Trump brought this therapy up?

[CU88]

I rolled up the thread in this post, where you can find cahrts:

https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880

The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.

If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.

It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.

There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.

Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.

For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you hone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.

This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.

The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. Stay safe.

I hope that he is wrong, as we could be looking at some terrible death totals in a couple of months...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

[Typical Lax Dad]

I rolled up the thread in this post, where you can find cahrts:

https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880

The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.

If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.

It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.

There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.

Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.

For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you hone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.

This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.

The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. Stay safe.

I hope that he is wrong, as we could be looking at some terrible death totals in a couple of months...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

We never got it under control and moved 3 weeks to early in my opinion. I though we would see what we are about to see in October. It’s going to come quicker than I thought.

[jhu72]

… now Mexico is closing part of the border - Sonora.

[wgdsr]

I rolled up the thread in this post, where you can find cahrts:

https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880

The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.

If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.

It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.

There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.

Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.

For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you hone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.

This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.

The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. Stay safe.

I hope that he is wrong, as we could be looking at some terrible death totals in a couple of months...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

We never got it under control and moved 3 weeks to early in my opinion. I though we would see what we are about to see in October. It’s going to come quicker than I thought.

you were right on coming out too early.
the fall thing i never got, no one showed why this would be a fall virus.

[6ftstick]

… another country doesn't want American visitors. Great Britain has announced we are on the their red list. MAGA

Does that make us a sh!t hole country?

We've always been a turd hole country to you and your buds.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I rolled up the thread in this post, where you can find cahrts:

https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880

The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion.

If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.

It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.

There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.

Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.

For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you hone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.

This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.

The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. Stay safe.

I hope that he is wrong, as we could be looking at some terrible death totals in a couple of months...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

We never got it under control and moved 3 weeks to early in my opinion. I though we would see what we are about to see in October. It’s going to come quicker than I thought.

you were right on coming out too early.
the fall thing i never got, no one showed why this would be a fall virus.

More people inside versus outside

[Typical Lax Dad]

… another country doesn't want American visitors. Great Britain has announced we are on the their red list. MAGA

Does that make us a sh!t hole country?

We've always been a turd hole country to you and your buds.

[Typical Lax Dad]

… now Mexico is closing part of the border - Sonora.

Already for shadowed!!

[wgdsr]

this is the good stuff.