All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[RedFromMI]

Although most of you who should have been quiet recently haven’t been, I suspect you will be soon:


38ACE427-9651-489F-B42F-B65D3E387E89.png

That’s a nice graph. I like the colors. But what’s the axis? Without any axis labels it is just a squiggly line. No figure legend either. Context? Yes....pet peeve of mine when presenting data.

And the one line is a small sample of states, while the other is all 50. Makes it even more suspect if not actually wrong without further explanation.

B5DA12E5-D434-4079-B12B-AE4B8B0D331F.jpeg

My objection is the comparison of the two lines. Cannot be done unless there is other information because there is no guarantee the a line calculated from the data of six states has any meaningful connection to another one based on all 50.

[Peter Brown]

Although most of you who should have been quiet recently haven’t been, I suspect you will be soon:


38ACE427-9651-489F-B42F-B65D3E387E89.png

That’s a nice graph. I like the colors. But what’s the axis? Without any axis labels it is just a squiggly line. No figure legend either. Context? Yes....pet peeve of mine when presenting data.

And the one line is a small sample of states, while the other is all 50. Makes it even more suspect if not actually wrong without further explanation.

B5DA12E5-D434-4079-B12B-AE4B8B0D331F.jpeg

My objection is the comparison of the two lines. Cannot be done unless there is other information because there is no guarantee the a line calculated from the data of six states has any meaningful connection to another one based on all 50.

Of note, since late May Florida has had NO overall decline in ICU/general hospital bed capacity. POSITIVE TESTS HAVE SPIKED. NOTHING ELSE.

Another way to look at this globally, compare it to SARS:

Fatalties dropping.png (164.37 KiB) Viewed 1188 times

[MDlaxfan76]

The goal of the shutdown was NOT to eliminate infections, but to flatten the curve so we can handle the load.

We've done that.

A spike in numbers is obviously going to happen as we open back up. But we've got beds now. If we're in danger of running out of beds, we reign it back in. If not, carry on. Corona risk is the new normal, just like car accidents and the flu. Do your best to take precautions.

I think this is at least close to the consensus of most folks on here, keep the curve flat or downward as we open up work and some play, but the nuance is what constitutes doing our "best"?

Does it include mandatory masks?
AMC and Regal just reversed and are now going to require masks for entry...should that not be the case for all public settings?
Seems to me that mandatory masks are coming, so let's get on with it and do it now.

And do we really treat this the way we do the flu?
Answer is no, not until there's a vaccine...this is still far more deadly.
We need far more contact tracing and isolation protocols than we apply to the flu.

Do this successfully and we can mitigate much of the economic damage, way way less than the cost of another shutdown and collapse.

And if cases do spike and, despite the lower death/case rate from better treatment protocols, hospitalizations begin to rise precipitously, do we indeed 'rein' it in with more than just mandatory masks, etc.?

The issue that I see is that there's a large segment of our population, led from the top of one party, which has decided, as an article of faith or as partisans, to flaunt public health guidelines. This prevents the US as a whole from doing OUR "best".

So, we're seeing COVID growing, not flattening as expected over the summer, with a serious risk of hospitalizations to follow.

[a fan]

The goal of the shutdown was NOT to eliminate infections, but to flatten the curve so we can handle the load.

We've done that.

A spike in numbers is obviously going to happen as we open back up. But we've got beds now. If we're in danger of running out of beds, we reign it back in. If not, carry on. Corona risk is the new normal, just like car accidents and the flu. Do your best to take precautions.

Yep. There's no other path here.

[kramerica.inc]

The goal of the shutdown was NOT to eliminate infections, but to flatten the curve so we can handle the load.

We've done that.

A spike in numbers is obviously going to happen as we open back up. But we've got beds now. If we're in danger of running out of beds, we reign it back in. If not, carry on. Corona risk is the new normal, just like car accidents and the flu. Do your best to take precautions.

I think this is at least close to the consensus of most folks on here, keep the curve flat or downward as we open up work and some play, but the nuance is what constitutes doing our "best"?

Does it include mandatory masks?
AMC and Regal just reversed and are now going to require masks for entry...should that not be the case for all public settings?
Seems to me that mandatory masks are coming, so let's get on with it and do it now.

And do we really treat this the way we do the flu?
Answer is no, not until there's a vaccine...this is still far more deadly.
We need far more contact tracing and isolation protocols than we apply to the flu.

Do this successfully and we can mitigate much of the economic damage, way way less than the cost of another shutdown and collapse.

And if cases do spike and, despite the lower death/case rate from better treatment protocols, hospitalizations begin to rise precipitously, do we indeed 'rein' it in with more than just mandatory masks, etc.?

The issue that I see is that there's a large segment of our population, led from the top of one party, which has decided, as an article of faith or as partisans, to flaunt public health guidelines. This prevents the US as a whole from doing OUR "best".

So, we're seeing COVID growing, not flattening as expected over the summer, with a serious risk of hospitalizations to follow.

Heard an interesting take by a Dr on talk radio. His belief is that the precautions are doing their job, and then some. He theorized that if precautions of limiting large gatherings to outdoor events, 6' distancing, mask use, and hand washing continue for the next 12 mos, he believes that not only covid, but Flu deaths will be greatly reduced next year and the total number of deaths COMBINED from these two could be similar to what flu takes on a yearly basis.

That said, I'm all for opening with precautions in place. Its best for me and my family and probably best for all involved, writ large.

Indoors and out, try to be 6' apart. And if you're inside, owners should be able to request that you're wearing a mask or moving in certain patterns through the store. IMO, stores have the right to run their business any way they want, even strictly:



I think ideally, the Gov/economy would be best served to back off on the formal requirements but really keep harping on the safety measures as a new way of life and a way to do the most good for the most people.

[MDlaxfan76]

The goal of the shutdown was NOT to eliminate infections, but to flatten the curve so we can handle the load.

We've done that.

A spike in numbers is obviously going to happen as we open back up. But we've got beds now. If we're in danger of running out of beds, we reign it back in. If not, carry on. Corona risk is the new normal, just like car accidents and the flu. Do your best to take precautions.

I think this is at least close to the consensus of most folks on here, keep the curve flat or downward as we open up work and some play, but the nuance is what constitutes doing our "best"?

Does it include mandatory masks?
AMC and Regal just reversed and are now going to require masks for entry...should that not be the case for all public settings?
Seems to me that mandatory masks are coming, so let's get on with it and do it now.

And do we really treat this the way we do the flu?
Answer is no, not until there's a vaccine...this is still far more deadly.
We need far more contact tracing and isolation protocols than we apply to the flu.

Do this successfully and we can mitigate much of the economic damage, way way less than the cost of another shutdown and collapse.

And if cases do spike and, despite the lower death/case rate from better treatment protocols, hospitalizations begin to rise precipitously, do we indeed 'rein' it in with more than just mandatory masks, etc.?

The issue that I see is that there's a large segment of our population, led from the top of one party, which has decided, as an article of faith or as partisans, to flaunt public health guidelines. This prevents the US as a whole from doing OUR "best".

So, we're seeing COVID growing, not flattening as expected over the summer, with a serious risk of hospitalizations to follow.

Heard an interesting take by a Dr on talk radio. His belief is that the precautions are doing their job, and then some. He theorized that if precautions of limiting large gatherings to outdoor events, 6' distancing, mask use, and hand washing continue for the next 12 mos, he believes that not only covid, but Flu deaths will be greatly reduced next year and the total number of deaths COMBINED from these two could be similar to what flu takes on a yearly basis.

That said, I'm all for opening with precautions in place. Its best for me and my family and probably best for all involved, writ large.

Indoors and out, try to be 6' apart. And if you're inside, owners should be able to request that you're wearing a mask or moving in certain patterns through the store. IMO, stores have the right to run their business any way they want, even strictly:



I think ideally, the Gov/economy would be best served to back off on the formal requirements but really keep harping on the safety measures as a new way of life and a way to do the most good for the most people.

We're on the same page, but I think the mask mandatory requirement will, unfortunately, be necessary as too many people are too willing to simply not care about others, thinking they themselves are not at risk or are willing to take that risk for themselves, or maybe even worse, are being encouraged not to wear a mask as a partisan move.

But mask wearing is primarily for the benefit of the public overall more than oneself, at least for most people and situations. I do agree that it would be far better if this simply became the social norm and mandates weren't necessary, but unfortunately that's not going to be the situation over the next 6 months.

I don't think we'll see it even encouraged by Trump, much less federally mandated, but I think we're likely to have more and more locales institute it, whether at the city/county level or state-wide. The sooner that happens, the better.

[tech37]

Heard an interesting take by a Dr on talk radio. His belief is that the precautions are doing their job, and then some. He theorized that if precautions of limiting large gatherings to outdoor events, 6' distancing, mask use, and hand washing continue for the next 12 mos, he believes that not only covid, but Flu deaths will be greatly reduced next year and the total number of deaths COMBINED from these two could be similar to what flu takes on a yearly basis.

That said, I'm all for opening with precautions in place. Its best for me and my family and probably best for all involved, writ large.

Indoors and out, try to be 6' apart. And if you're inside, owners should be able to request that you're wearing a mask or moving in certain patterns through the store. IMO, stores have the right to run their business any way they want, even strictly:



I think ideally, the Gov/economy would be best served to back off on the formal requirements but really keep harping on the safety measures as a new way of life and a way to do the most good for the most people.

Great post Kram...

[seacoaster]

The goal of the shutdown was NOT to eliminate infections, but to flatten the curve so we can handle the load.

We've done that.

A spike in numbers is obviously going to happen as we open back up. But we've got beds now. If we're in danger of running out of beds, we reign it back in. If not, carry on. Corona risk is the new normal, just like car accidents and the flu. Do your best to take precautions.

I think this is at least close to the consensus of most folks on here, keep the curve flat or downward as we open up work and some play, but the nuance is what constitutes doing our "best"?

Does it include mandatory masks?
AMC and Regal just reversed and are now going to require masks for entry...should that not be the case for all public settings?
Seems to me that mandatory masks are coming, so let's get on with it and do it now.

And do we really treat this the way we do the flu?
Answer is no, not until there's a vaccine...this is still far more deadly.
We need far more contact tracing and isolation protocols than we apply to the flu.

Do this successfully and we can mitigate much of the economic damage, way way less than the cost of another shutdown and collapse.

And if cases do spike and, despite the lower death/case rate from better treatment protocols, hospitalizations begin to rise precipitously, do we indeed 'rein' it in with more than just mandatory masks, etc.?

The issue that I see is that there's a large segment of our population, led from the top of one party, which has decided, as an article of faith or as partisans, to flaunt public health guidelines. This prevents the US as a whole from doing OUR "best".

So, we're seeing COVID growing, not flattening as expected over the summer, with a serious risk of hospitalizations to follow.

Heard an interesting take by a Dr on talk radio. His belief is that the precautions are doing their job, and then some. He theorized that if precautions of limiting large gatherings to outdoor events, 6' distancing, mask use, and hand washing continue for the next 12 mos, he believes that not only covid, but Flu deaths will be greatly reduced next year and the total number of deaths COMBINED from these two could be similar to what flu takes on a yearly basis.

That said, I'm all for opening with precautions in place. Its best for me and my family and probably best for all involved, writ large.

Indoors and out, try to be 6' apart. And if you're inside, owners should be able to request that you're wearing a mask or moving in certain patterns through the store. IMO, stores have the right to run their business any way they want, even strictly:



I think ideally, the Gov/economy would be best served to back off on the formal requirements but really keep harping on the safety measures as a new way of life and a way to do the most good for the most people.

We're on the same page, but I think the mask mandatory requirement will, unfortunately, be necessary as too many people are too willing to simply not care about others, thinking they themselves are not at risk or are willing to take that risk for themselves, or maybe even worse, are being encouraged not to wear a mask as a partisan move.

But mask wearing is primarily for the benefit of the public overall more than oneself, at least for most people and situations. I do agree that it would be far better if this simply became the social norm and mandates weren't necessary, but unfortunately that's not going to be the situation over the next 6 months.

I don't think we'll see it even encouraged by Trump, much less federally mandated, but I think we're likely to have more and more locales institute it, whether at the city/county level or state-wide. The sooner that happens, the better.

Cosmo, did the Doctor give an opinion (or even talk) about colleges opening in the Fall?

[CU88]

Such bold leadership by r Gov in Texas:

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announces he’ll hold briefing about COVID-19 with limit press coverage on Monday at 2 pm. The Houston Chronicle and San Antonio Express-News once again not allowed to be there to ask questions despite both cities seeing huge spike in ICUs.

Governor Abbott rushed to reopen Texas, leading to a huge surge in new coronavirus cases.

Now, in the middle of the crisis, he’s disallowing two of our state’s largest papers from the most affected cities from covering his briefings.

MAGA

[Peter Brown]

Such bold leadership by r Gov in Texas:

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announces he’ll hold briefing about COVID-19 with limit press coverage on Monday at 2 pm. The Houston Chronicle and San Antonio Express-News once again not allowed to be there to ask questions despite both cities seeing huge spike in ICUs.

Governor Abbott rushed to reopen Texas, leading to a huge surge in new coronavirus cases.

Now, in the middle of the crisis, he’s disallowing two of our state’s largest papers from the most affected cities from covering his briefings.

MAGA

Facts matter, just not to all apparently. See reply from Abbott’s Comms Director who says you’re not being honest:

https://twitter.com/john_jwitt/status/1 ... 72097?s=21

[Cooter]

But mask wearing is primarily for the benefit of the public overall more than oneself, at least for most people and situations.

I think that there are so many cases of Coronavirus around that this questionable now.

[DocBarrister]

But mask wearing is primarily for the benefit of the public overall more than oneself, at least for most people and situations.

I think that there are so many cases of Coronavirus around that this questionable now.

Absolutely NOT true.

Wear a %^#* mask in public, everyone.

DocBarrister

[Peter Brown]

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with a median of 0.05%." - John Ioannidis, Stanford
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20101253v2

Open up.

[DocBarrister]

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with a median of 0.05%." - John Ioannidis, Stanford
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20101253v2

Open up.

Texas had over 5,000 new cases today. The deaths from those cases will be seen in a few weeks.

Callous Republican morons are evidently not satisfied with over 122,000 dead Americans.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

Such bold leadership by r Gov in Texas:

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announces he’ll hold briefing about COVID-19 with limit press coverage on Monday at 2 pm. The Houston Chronicle and San Antonio Express-News once again not allowed to be there to ask questions despite both cities seeing huge spike in ICUs.

Governor Abbott rushed to reopen Texas, leading to a huge surge in new coronavirus cases.

Now, in the middle of the crisis, he’s disallowing two of our state’s largest papers from the most affected cities from covering his briefings.

MAGA

Facts matter, just not to all apparently. See reply from Abbott’s Comms Director who says you’re not being honest:

https://twitter.com/john_jwitt/status/1 ... 72097?s=21

actually, what he claims is that they did invite the papers the week earlier but because they felt the response was too slow, they had to 'move on'...he didn't address the question of yesterday at all which appears to mean that they did exclude them...that said, I've seen footage of the briefing, so the only thing they kept from happening was the questioning. Abbott looks very worried, as he should be.

[DocBarrister]

The goal of the shutdown was NOT to eliminate infections, but to flatten the curve so we can handle the load.

We've done that.

A spike in numbers is obviously going to happen as we open back up. But we've got beds now. If we're in danger of running out of beds, we reign it back in. If not, carry on. Corona risk is the new normal, just like car accidents and the flu. Do your best to take precautions.

Wrong, wrong, WRONG.

Flattening the curve was supposed to be just the first step to sending the curve downward to a relatively low level. Europe, which was a basket case for months, has managed to accomplish that.

The United States? We flattened the curve, but it remained high and is now spiking again.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/06/2 ... dn-vpx.cnn

East Asia and Europe managed to do what the United States couldn’t ... stop the initial surge and send it plummeting to low levels. They accomplished that in various ways, but vigorous lockdowns, aggressive testing, and contact tracing were a part of the solution.

In the U.S., Trump never formulated a national policy. Worst of all, it is now clear that he fought testing to protect himself politically ... an act of willful neglect and recklessness that is morally tantamount to mass homicide. To him, cases are just numbers and political liabilities. He clearly would rather keep “the numbers” low than to save lives.

Second, your callousness regarding available hospital beds also betrays a profound ignorance of the nature of the disease. Even in young people who experience symptoms and signs of Covid-19, there are severe morbidities associated with the disease. Many survivors of the disease will experience long lasting physical and emotional injuries. People focus on mortality, but ignore the substantial morbidity associated with Covid-19.

We have “opened up” our economy without doing the hard work of sending the curve downward ... and we have basically consigned hundreds of thousands of our fellow Americans to a lot of suffering. And yes, many of them will die ... even some of the young.

And for what ... so people can save their businesses? We could have done that by printing more money and giving people enough to live on until we got this pandemic under true control in the United States. Instead, we have followed our attention-deficient, malignant, narcissistic president into the greatest public health disaster of the past century.

DocBarrister

[6ftstick]

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with a median of 0.05%." - John Ioannidis, Stanford
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20101253v2

Open up.

Texas had over 5,000 new cases today. The deaths from those cases will be seen in a few weeks.

Callous Republican morons are evidently not satisfied with over 122,000 dead Americans.

DocBarrister

Callous Democrat governors are responsible for 40% of those deaths by mandating infected seniors BACK INTO NURSING HOMES.

And now they're lying about the numbers.

[DocBarrister]

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with a median of 0.05%." - John Ioannidis, Stanford
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20101253v2

Open up.

Texas had over 5,000 new cases today. The deaths from those cases will be seen in a few weeks.

Callous Republican morons are evidently not satisfied with over 122,000 dead Americans.

DocBarrister

Callous Democrat governors are responsible for 40% of those deaths by mandating infected seniors BACK INTO NURSING HOMES.

And now they're lying about the numbers.

I have been a consistent critic of Gov. Cuomo’s response to the pandemic. He acted too slowly to shut things down, and made some awful decisions.

Gov. Newsom caved to economic pressure in California.

Republican Texas is surging out of control.

And Gov. DeSantis basically blamed Florida’s surge on Hispanics, playing to the racism of his Republican base.

Plus, nothing changes the fact that a Republican president is running this entire #%*^ show. His failed Tulsa rally shows that even some of his deplorable supporters understand that Covid-19 doesn’t care if you’re Republican or Democrat ... it can kill you either way.

DocBarrister

[Peter Brown]

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with a median of 0.05%." - John Ioannidis, Stanford
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20101253v2

Open up.

Texas had over 5,000 new cases today. The deaths from those cases will be seen in a few weeks.

Callous Republican morons are evidently not satisfied with over 122,000 dead Americans.

DocBarrister

Callous Democrat governors are responsible for 40% of those deaths by mandating infected seniors BACK INTO NURSING HOMES.

And now they're lying about the numbers.

I have been a consistent critic of Gov. Cuomo’s response to the pandemic. He acted too slowly to shut things down, and made some awful decisions.

Gov. Newsom caved to economic pressure in California.

Republican Texas is surging out of control.

And Gov. DeSantis basically blamed Florida’s surge on Hispanics, playing to the racism of his Republican base.

Plus, nothing changes the fact that a Republican president is running this entire #%*^ show. His failed Tulsa rally shows that even some of his deplorable supporters understand that Covid-19 doesn’t care if you’re Republican or Democrat ... it can kill you either way.

DocBarrister

Are you also a Stanford epidemiologist?

https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/06/23/s ... peculated/

Ioannidis is what’s known as a meta-researcher, and he’s become one of the world’s foremost experts on the credibility of medical research.He and his team have shown, again and again, and in many different ways, that much of what biomedical researchers conclude in published studies—conclusions that doctors keep in mind when they prescribe antibiotics or blood-pressure medication, or when they advise us to consume more fibre or less meat, or when they recommend surgery for heart disease or back pain—is misleading, exaggerated, and often flat-out wrong.”

[DocBarrister]

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with a median of 0.05%." - John Ioannidis, Stanford
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20101253v2

Open up.

Texas had over 5,000 new cases today. The deaths from those cases will be seen in a few weeks.

Callous Republican morons are evidently not satisfied with over 122,000 dead Americans.

DocBarrister

Callous Democrat governors are responsible for 40% of those deaths by mandating infected seniors BACK INTO NURSING HOMES.

And now they're lying about the numbers.

I have been a consistent critic of Gov. Cuomo’s response to the pandemic. He acted too slowly to shut things down, and made some awful decisions.

Gov. Newsom caved to economic pressure in California.

Republican Texas is surging out of control.

And Gov. DeSantis basically blamed Florida’s surge on Hispanics, playing to the racism of his Republican base.

Plus, nothing changes the fact that a Republican president is running this entire #%*^ show. His failed Tulsa rally shows that even some of his deplorable supporters understand that Covid-19 doesn’t care if you’re Republican or Democrat ... it can kill you either way.

DocBarrister

Are you also a Stanford epidemiologist?

https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/06/23/s ... peculated/

Ioannidis is what’s known as a meta-researcher, and he’s become one of the world’s foremost experts on the credibility of medical research.He and his team have shown, again and again, and in many different ways, that much of what biomedical researchers conclude in published studies—conclusions that doctors keep in mind when they prescribe antibiotics or blood-pressure medication, or when they advise us to consume more fibre or less meat, or when they recommend surgery for heart disease or back pain—is misleading, exaggerated, and often flat-out wrong.”

The picture that is emerging is that Covid-19 causes mortality at very high rates in older segments of the population and substantial morbidity (and some mortalities) in younger portions of the population.

Bottom line, this is the world’s most severe pandemic in over 100 years. The 122,000+ dead Americans and the many hundreds of thousands of scarred survivors are a testament to that fact.

Nearly half a million people around the world have died in just six months despite 21st-century medical care and the most extreme public health mitigation measures implemented in the past century.

Any attempt to downplay the deadliness and danger of Covid-19 is morally repugnant and a disservice to the public.

DocBarrister