The Nation's Financial Condition

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foreverlax
Posts: 3219
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:21 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by foreverlax »

Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:10 am
foreverlax wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:00 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Here is a simple math lesson - when you go down 50%, you need 100% to get you back to even. 100% sure sounds good, until you realize you're right back where you started from....which in this case we're not.


Perception is reality in so many cases, and perception here is positive. People generally want to feel good, not morose.
Fair enough...better then going down for sure. Of course people want to feel like their glass is half full vs half empty. Sadly a lot of people, currently, have no glass or very little in it.

They don't give one fig about the market...
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23825
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?
Last edited by Farfromgeneva on Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23825
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

foreverlax wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:15 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:10 am
foreverlax wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:00 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Here is a simple math lesson - when you go down 50%, you need 100% to get you back to even. 100% sure sounds good, until you realize you're right back where you started from....which in this case we're not.


Perception is reality in so many cases, and perception here is positive. People generally want to feel good, not morose.
Fair enough...better then going down for sure. Of course people want to feel like their glass is half full vs half empty. Sadly a lot of people, currently, have no glass or very little in it.

They don't give one fig about the market...
How you going to feel good unemployed because a lot of Hilton, AT&T and energy complex people are already on the skids and we haven’t even started to feel the effects.

Why would a $40Bn bank pay me and a partner $500/hr plus all sorts of add ins to be an outsourced special assets group end of this summer? Couldn’t be the southern republican CEO Of this institution is way dumber than you.

But sure, we can all masturbate in the mirror while repeating the Stuart smalley lines.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6ldAQ6Rh5ZI
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:51 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?


You should keep rooting for failure. It suits the Left.
User avatar
RedFromMI
Posts: 5079
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:42 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by RedFromMI »

There goes PB again - making statements (historic! rooting for failure!) that are not evident from the facts.

The increase may be very large - but in the context of the previous month is more of a relief that things are not worse than they ended up. That is all the rest of us are saying.

PB is so much like Trump in that he has to make anything positive look like it is the greatest thing since sliced bread, and by implication at least the result of the current regime's fine actions.

In reality Trump and Sons et al have effed this one up for the most part principally through the failure to provide good leadership.

Saying in effect "We told you so" is not the same thing as rooting for failure - it is pointing out that Trump et al really do not know what they are doing.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23825
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:24 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:51 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?


You should keep rooting for failure. It suits the Left.
Who’s rooting for failure. Price discovery means seeing both sides and positioning appropriately.

And who’s left? The rich spoiled think they earned douchebag cohort of wanna be intellectuals who repeat what their far right conspiracy websites where they learn a term or concept, typically incorrectly, then pound it into the table suits the people who are out of touch with reality.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23825
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

RedFromMI wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:43 am There goes PB again - making statements (historic! rooting for failure!) that are not evident from the facts.

The increase may be very large - but in the context of the previous month is more of a relief that things are not worse than they ended up. That is all the rest of us are saying.

PB is so much like Trump in that he has to make anything positive look like it is the greatest thing since sliced bread, and by implication at least the result of the current regime's fine actions.

In reality Trump and Sons et al have effed this one up for the most part principally through the failure to provide good leadership.

Saying in effect "We told you so" is not the same thing as rooting for failure - it is pointing out that Trump et al really do not know what they are doing.
Not to mention that we’re ten years into a positive business cycle, even before Covid. We were due for a downswing before the pandemic but some people are too stupid to understand this.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
6ftstick
Posts: 3194
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:19 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by 6ftstick »

China has purchased 10 billion in US goods saying they're committed to the new trade agreement.
6ftstick
Posts: 3194
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:19 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by 6ftstick »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:55 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:24 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:51 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?


You should keep rooting for failure. It suits the Left.
Who’s rooting for failure. Price discovery means seeing both sides and positioning appropriately.

And who’s left? The rich spoiled think they earned douchebag cohort of wanna be intellectuals who repeat what their far right conspiracy websites where they learn a term or concept, typically incorrectly, then pound it into the table suits the people who are out of touch with reality.
Oh please. You living in a bubble. ALL this chaos is meant to drive Trump from office.
Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

6ftstick wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:07 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:55 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:24 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:51 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?


You should keep rooting for failure. It suits the Left.
Who’s rooting for failure. Price discovery means seeing both sides and positioning appropriately.

And who’s left? The rich spoiled think they earned douchebag cohort of wanna be intellectuals who repeat what their far right conspiracy websites where they learn a term or concept, typically incorrectly, then pound it into the table suits the people who are out of touch with reality.
Oh please. You living in a bubble. ALL this chaos is meant to drive Trump from office.


It's odd to me the energy expended on booting Trump from office. The Left hates the guy because he's the first Republican since Reagan who has actually accomplished anything. NeverTrump hates the guy because they hate his manners and affectations. And Trump laughs at both.

Dems and NeverTrump are doing everything possible to convince themselves that Trump 'can't, not impossible, he won't' be elected again, when if you have half a brain, you'd realize you should not pay attention to the media nor polls. Trump is sitting fine right now.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23825
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

What the heck are you talking about? Ever heard of a business cycle?

Know when we’ve had recessions? (Technical 2 quarter negative is a weak definition but considered back of napkin)

- Practically half fo the seventies (Felix Rohytan at Lazard saved NYC from BK around 1977 and look at it now, of course that same firm was backing Harold Geneem at ITT when the CIA was funneling money to insurgents in Latin America through his company, so let’s just say Lazard has an ethically mixed record, would be more prominent today if Bruce Wasserstein could’ve lived a little longer)
-Early 1980s
-Early 1990s
-End of Millenial and early 2000s
-End of 2000s into 2010

And....

That’s reality unless you are wearing the shoes of a clown. About once a decade we take a hit for various liquidity, fiscal and monetary reasons. It’s called a cycle. And if you believe Talibs book Antifrgile the more we try to “de risk” the citizens of the US (economically and socially) the greater the blowups when they will come. And they always come.

You’re welcome for a high school economics lesson.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23825
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:25 pm
6ftstick wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:07 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:55 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:24 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:51 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?


You should keep rooting for failure. It suits the Left.
Who’s rooting for failure. Price discovery means seeing both sides and positioning appropriately.

And who’s left? The rich spoiled think they earned douchebag cohort of wanna be intellectuals who repeat what their far right conspiracy websites where they learn a term or concept, typically incorrectly, then pound it into the table suits the people who are out of touch with reality.
Oh please. You living in a bubble. ALL this chaos is meant to drive Trump from office.


It's odd to me the energy expended on booting Trump from office. The Left hates the guy because he's the first Republican since Reagan who has actually accomplished anything. NeverTrump hates the guy because they hate his manners and affectations. And Trump laughs at both.

Dems and NeverTrump are doing everything possible to convince themselves that Trump 'can't, not impossible, he won't' be elected again, when if you have half a brain, you'd realize you should not pay attention to the media nor polls. Trump is sitting fine right now.
So your saying that it’s impossible to make money on a short trade here. Funny how many rich guys can show P&Ls disagreeing with you.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:28 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:25 pm
6ftstick wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:07 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:55 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:24 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:51 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?


You should keep rooting for failure. It suits the Left.
Who’s rooting for failure. Price discovery means seeing both sides and positioning appropriately.

And who’s left? The rich spoiled think they earned douchebag cohort of wanna be intellectuals who repeat what their far right conspiracy websites where they learn a term or concept, typically incorrectly, then pound it into the table suits the people who are out of touch with reality.
Oh please. You living in a bubble. ALL this chaos is meant to drive Trump from office.


It's odd to me the energy expended on booting Trump from office. The Left hates the guy because he's the first Republican since Reagan who has actually accomplished anything. NeverTrump hates the guy because they hate his manners and affectations. And Trump laughs at both.

Dems and NeverTrump are doing everything possible to convince themselves that Trump 'can't, not impossible, he won't' be elected again, when if you have half a brain, you'd realize you should not pay attention to the media nor polls. Trump is sitting fine right now.
So your saying that it’s impossible to make money on a short trade here. Funny how many rich guys can show P&Ls disagreeing with you.



Are you talking the stock market, election polls, real estate, or some other asset? We are buying right now, other operations and facilities. The multiples of 14x a few months ago are now 12x and trending lower. Also, companies are only selling at multiples of 2019's earnings, not this year. My industry is a long-term play, not a short-term trade, so buying right now is a bet on long-term viability. And I always go long on America, even when Democrats are in office.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23825
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Proving my point. Yes private wealth with limited LPs can and do buy when things are rough, then reason you are buying is because the seller is forced to sell more cheaply because of the current climate. People who have to like live on their 401k and SSI can’t afford to make “long term bets”. You don’t seem to understand this at all.

My FIL killed it having a ton of cash in the financial crisis, hard assets, equities and bonds. When you are sitting on cash wealth one can pull a Sam Zell.

You’re playing in the generational wealth world. Good for you to be born into it but don’t confuse your good luck with any proof of your theories or trolling nonsensical, dishonest commentary about society.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:44 pm Proving my point. Yes private wealth with limited LPs can and do buy when things are rough, then reason you are buying is because the seller is forced to sell more cheaply because of the current climate. People who have to like live on their 401k and SSI can’t afford to make “long term bets”. You don’t seem to understand this at all.

My FIL killed it having a ton of cash in the financial crisis, hard assets, equities and bonds. When you are sitting on cash wealth one can pull a Sam Zell.

You’re playing in the generational wealth world. Good for you to be born into it but don’t confuse your good luck with any proof of your theories or trolling nonsensical, dishonest commentary about society.


You and others keep saying I was 'born into wealth'. My father did well, but hardly left me much; he left it to Loyola and a few other places, not to mention underwriting my mother the rest of her life. Inheritance was hardly his style; he always said spend it while you're alive.

I've been lucky in the sense he paid for my education (U Florida), and he'd be the first to tell you this, I've way outpaced the old man on wealth creation and not ashamed to say so. I've worked nearly every day of my life since the age of 13 (they'd arrest you if you made your kid do that today!), worked all through college, work now 7 days a week, and am available to my colleagues 24 hours a day. And I enjoy every second. It ain't work when you love it. I'm enjoying the arbitrage game now, where a few decades of intelligence help filter out targets that we should acquire versus the targets we want to acquire, and our acquisitions go far smoother today than the chaos of 20 years ago.

I'm a fanatic about how work nourishes the soul, hence the Democratic Party is anathema to me any longer as they slide into some regressive socialist ethos.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23825
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

13? I was selling Topps was packs off my porch at 8 (not to mention shoveling, raking and any other hustle I could extract money from my neighborhood doing but when you could buy 36 pack box for 15-18 bucks and sell out the packs at $1/each, maybe blow out the last few at 75 cents when you’ve flushed through the neighborhood kids allowances but still a near or above 100% gross margin and fast cash conversion cycle-not that that I knew any of these concepts back then, saved $20k towards Hobart of my own personal contribution). 13 is nothing. Jobs including Long John Silvers, post office distribution center and floater delivery guy parts plus distribution center, city day camp counselor, multiple chain server and bar tending gigs, tutoring kids in college and probably 20 other crappy gigs just to get through grad school. My dad has to retire from the Thruway system at 50 because he had crippling rheumatoid arthritis since his 30s and was on like a partial pension and disability until SSI kicked in. Divorced so 2x HH expenses. Mother retired w 25yrs as a head of NYS DOT at low $70s. With their two deaths in 2012 and 2020 I’ll ultimately distribute $250k to myself and my sister combined. We are in far different universes.

You’re still a far way away from a tough upbringing. Just remember that when you spew what you spew.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23825
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:35 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:28 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:25 pm
6ftstick wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:07 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:55 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:24 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:51 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?


You should keep rooting for failure. It suits the Left.
Who’s rooting for failure. Price discovery means seeing both sides and positioning appropriately.

And who’s left? The rich spoiled think they earned douchebag cohort of wanna be intellectuals who repeat what their far right conspiracy websites where they learn a term or concept, typically incorrectly, then pound it into the table suits the people who are out of touch with reality.
Oh please. You living in a bubble. ALL this chaos is meant to drive Trump from office.


It's odd to me the energy expended on booting Trump from office. The Left hates the guy because he's the first Republican since Reagan who has actually accomplished anything. NeverTrump hates the guy because they hate his manners and affectations. And Trump laughs at both.

Dems and NeverTrump are doing everything possible to convince themselves that Trump 'can't, not impossible, he won't' be elected again, when if you have half a brain, you'd realize you should not pay attention to the media nor polls. Trump is sitting fine right now.
So your saying that it’s impossible to make money on a short trade here. Funny how many rich guys can show P&Ls disagreeing with you.



Are you talking the stock market, election polls, real estate, or some other asset? We are buying right now, other operations and facilities. The multiples of 14x a few months ago are now 12x and trending lower. Also, companies are only selling at multiples of 2019's earnings, not this year. My industry is a long-term play, not a short-term trade, so buying right now is a bet on long-term viability. And I always go long on America, even when Democrats are in office.
BTW, 12-14x (Ebitda I presume) is still pricey unless you’re buying something (like you are) with tangible, saleable assets and the acquisition can be levered. Why are rates low enough to lever up to pay such levels? Because the experts think we have a growth problem.

And if you don’t have to use leverage and are ok with a 7-8% ROI in year 1 stripping out the hope of revenue synergies then you are in a class that even most is irruption all asset managers aren’t in.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
foreverlax
Posts: 3219
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:21 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by foreverlax »

Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:35 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:28 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:25 pm
6ftstick wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:07 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:55 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:24 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:51 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?


You should keep rooting for failure. It suits the Left.
Who’s rooting for failure. Price discovery means seeing both sides and positioning appropriately.

And who’s left? The rich spoiled think they earned douchebag cohort of wanna be intellectuals who repeat what their far right conspiracy websites where they learn a term or concept, typically incorrectly, then pound it into the table suits the people who are out of touch with reality.
Oh please. You living in a bubble. ALL this chaos is meant to drive Trump from office.


It's odd to me the energy expended on booting Trump from office. The Left hates the guy because he's the first Republican since Reagan who has actually accomplished anything. NeverTrump hates the guy because they hate his manners and affectations. And Trump laughs at both.

Dems and NeverTrump are doing everything possible to convince themselves that Trump 'can't, not impossible, he won't' be elected again, when if you have half a brain, you'd realize you should not pay attention to the media nor polls. Trump is sitting fine right now.
So your saying that it’s impossible to make money on a short trade here. Funny how many rich guys can show P&Ls disagreeing with you.



Are you talking the stock market, election polls, real estate, or some other asset? We are buying right now, other operations and facilities. The multiples of 14x a few months ago are now 12x and trending lower. Also, companies are only selling at multiples of 2019's earnings, not this year. My industry is a long-term play, not a short-term trade, so buying right now is a bet on long-term viability. And I always go long on America, even when Democrats are in office.
Your industry lives and dies by Boeing...what's there p/e :lol:
Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:08 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:35 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:28 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:25 pm
6ftstick wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:07 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:55 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:24 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:51 am
Peter Brown wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:51 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:00 pm Not sure if these stories are resonating at all but AT&T is cutting 4,600 jobs, approx 3,400 technical gigs and 1,200 or so related to their closing of 250 stores (which are cope gtd but more retail space that’ll need to be back filled and also have a capital requirement as new tenants will require substantial TI allowance (tenant improvement, landlords typically deliver raw space and give a allowance or cut a check that’s often as much as 1/2 - 1.5yrs worth do the rent on a 5-10yr lease).


The Left is like an ear wedgie drone of bad news.

I see you missed yesterday's real historic news so let me help:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-reta ... -2020.html
Left of what, fascist?

No kidding when most of retail is shut down then the country reopens you’d have a large increase. So you don’t understand how math works?


You should keep rooting for failure. It suits the Left.
Who’s rooting for failure. Price discovery means seeing both sides and positioning appropriately.

And who’s left? The rich spoiled think they earned douchebag cohort of wanna be intellectuals who repeat what their far right conspiracy websites where they learn a term or concept, typically incorrectly, then pound it into the table suits the people who are out of touch with reality.
Oh please. You living in a bubble. ALL this chaos is meant to drive Trump from office.


It's odd to me the energy expended on booting Trump from office. The Left hates the guy because he's the first Republican since Reagan who has actually accomplished anything. NeverTrump hates the guy because they hate his manners and affectations. And Trump laughs at both.

Dems and NeverTrump are doing everything possible to convince themselves that Trump 'can't, not impossible, he won't' be elected again, when if you have half a brain, you'd realize you should not pay attention to the media nor polls. Trump is sitting fine right now.
So your saying that it’s impossible to make money on a short trade here. Funny how many rich guys can show P&Ls disagreeing with you.



Are you talking the stock market, election polls, real estate, or some other asset? We are buying right now, other operations and facilities. The multiples of 14x a few months ago are now 12x and trending lower. Also, companies are only selling at multiples of 2019's earnings, not this year. My industry is a long-term play, not a short-term trade, so buying right now is a bet on long-term viability. And I always go long on America, even when Democrats are in office.
BTW, 12-14x (Ebitda I presume) is still pricey unless you’re buying something (like you are) with tangible, saleable assets and the acquisition can be levered. Why are rates low enough to lever up to pay such levels? Because the experts think we have a growth problem.

And if you don’t have to use leverage and are ok with a 7-8% ROI in year 1 stripping out the hope of revenue synergies then you are in a class that even most is irruption all asset managers aren’t in.



We have never borrowed for any acquisition with one glaring exception: we will take seller financing with exclusive rights to elect to pay 2 years of interest only at our prerogative (most seller financing deals in this business have 5 year terms). We do do some equipment financing because it's always carried 0% financing, and with tugs going for around $100,000/piece, sometimes you want to scale that investment accordingly.

However, our bankers are practically begging us to accept debt financing now. We are being offered 1.9% fixed at 10 years with practically unlimited capacity. A real dilemma for us tbh. Philosophically I am opposed to debt, but at 1.9% with outrageously lenient terms (and yes, that should say the market does not expect growth), it's almost not even debt.

And yes we do buy hard assets (hangars mostly) but they are on land leases, so it gets trickier than most assets (you can't exactly cart the hangars away when your land lease expires after 30-40 years, but then again, they'll be carting me off by then so...).
Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

foreverlax wrote: Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:19 pm Your industry lives and dies by Boeing...what's there p/e :lol:


My industry is private jets, jet A fuel, hangars, and FBO's; Boeing isn't part of our industry on their best day.

They make one private jet, the BBJ, which accounts for less than 0.005% of all private jets in the sky.
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