All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

For those of you who have the stomach to click through - the damaged lung of a 20 year old who just got the first pair of transplant lungs due to the covid damage. It is amazing the patient survived until the transplant.

https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/12 ... 68609?s=21

The likelihood that this lung story is more complex than ‘young lady with no preconditions sees lungs deteriorate to Black Plague’ is somewhere between 100 and 110%. Count on that.

Nope - you are wrong.

From the NYT:

the patient, a woman in her 20s who had no serious underlying medical conditions, was recovering well: “She’s awake, she’s smiling, she FaceTimed with her family.”

Wow if it’s from the NYT, it’s got to be true! What was I thinking!

Right. It's not as reliable as the Washington Free Beacon or The Gateway Pundit.

[Peter Brown]

For those of you who have the stomach to click through - the damaged lung of a 20 year old who just got the first pair of transplant lungs due to the covid damage. It is amazing the patient survived until the transplant.

https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/12 ... 68609?s=21

The likelihood that this lung story is more complex than ‘young lady with no preconditions sees lungs deteriorate to Black Plague’ is somewhere between 100 and 110%. Count on that.

Nope - you are wrong.

From the NYT:

the patient, a woman in her 20s who had no serious underlying medical conditions, was recovering well: “She’s awake, she’s smiling, she FaceTimed with her family.”

Wow if it’s from the NYT, it’s got to be true! What was I thinking!

Right. It's not as reliable as the Washington Free Beacon or The Gateway Pundit.

Educate yourself with a real journalist. They don’t exist in liberal media. Here:

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-news- ... ing-itself

[RedFromMI]

Taibbi is not my cup of tea for the most part - and there are HUNDREDS of journalists better than him.

[old salt]

Wapo:

Florida got rid of its top geographic data scientist in May. Rebekah Jones now publicizes statistics on her own, at FloridaCOVIDAction.com, which gives a higher case total and a lower number of people tested than data published by the state.

http://FloridaCOVIDAction.com


florida.jpg

Florida recorded more than 1,000 new cases on Tuesday [June 9, after the graph above ends], Wednesday and Thursday, including 1,698 on Thursday, the state’s highest daily total yet. That record only stood for a day: it was eclipsed on Friday, when the state reported another 1,902.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/worl ... dates.html

Typical NYT/MSM skewed partial reporting. No positivity rate, deaths/day, hospitilizations-acute care-ICU admissions/day

NYT is doing an apples-to-apples comparison. Saying "what about peaches?" changes nothing.

Go to http://FloridaCOVIDAction.com (cited above by me, unmentioned by you) for accurate Florida info.

MFGA!

From the FL dashboard charts - deaths & hospitalizations still curving downward. Positivity rate has plateaued.
What was the positivity rate of the tests conducted June 9-11, charted with preceding weeks ?
Has testing increased since June 8 ? NYT doesn't tell us.

MD's dashboard charts depict the relevant metrics.
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

[Kismet]

https://www.aei.org/covid-2019-action-tracker/

"Local Risk Index (LRI)The Local Risk Index is a ratio of the current week percent detected (“detected rate”) observed in a county divided by the baseline percent detected: •Current week percent detected is a measure of the percent of patients who tested positive in a county during the current week. It is calculated by dividing the count of patients whose PCR test results showed the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the past 4 days of data by the total count of patient test results reported during the same period (Detected Results / Total Results = % Detected)."

https://cdn.hc1.com/docs/covid-19/aei-c ... -guide.pdf

Different story here - positivity rates going up in those state you mentioned - this data on a county by county basis. Marylands numbers are up based upon lower testing numbers.

You are correct that hospitalizations/deaths are the most important numbers no matter what the rate of infection is.

[MDlaxfan76]

Whoopsie

Dr. Deborah Birx said that recent demonstrations have destroyed a "significant" number of coronavirus testing sites.

On Monday, Birx, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, told governors on a phone call that protests that erupted into violence following the death of George Floyd led to the destruction of 70 COVID-19 testing sites, making those in inner-city areas more susceptible to having undocumented infections.

"We got a significant number of our testing sites that were serving inner-city groups destroyed at the beginning of the protests. So, there were a lot of pharmacies, and we can see the testing rates in some of the urban areas starting to decline," Birx said in a phone call first obtained by the Daily Beast. "And we did lose a significant — I think 70 testing sites that were in urban areas. So, all of the governors are going to have to scramble to make sure there is testing available in those urban areas," Birx said.

Has this been confirmed by anyone independent of the White House??

WaPo article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/s ... story.html

Some fraction is just closures, and some in areas where there are other sites for testing. (Lots of pharmacies like Rite Aid shutting down locations until more settled conditions).

…. temporarily closing is not the same as being "destroyed". Sounds like very few if any actually destroyed.

The business may have been looted, or the building torched, but drive thru testing remains available.

.. if only they had killed some scumbag republicans the day would have been perfect.

Oh so this is an example of the intelligence mdlax was referring to

It was indeed an obnoxious retort to Salty's sarcasm.

Red's (and 72's prior post) was spot on.

Oh, OS's sarcasm is the problem?

That's the flow of the exchange as I read it.

[runrussellrun]

For those of you who have the stomach to click through - the damaged lung of a 20 year old who just got the first pair of transplant lungs due to the covid damage. It is amazing the patient survived until the transplant.

https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/12 ... 68609?s=21

Fear Porn

from the nyt article.

She had had a minor illness that required her to take a medication that suppressed her immune system somewhat, but it was not clear whether the drug made her especially vulnerable to the virus.

A "minor" illness, requiring pretty serious medication.

FEAR PORN......or rather, an advertizement for NorthWestern

[RedFromMI]

For those of you who have the stomach to click through - the damaged lung of a 20 year old who just got the first pair of transplant lungs due to the covid damage. It is amazing the patient survived until the transplant.

https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/12 ... 68609?s=21

Fear Porn

from the nyt article.

She had had a minor illness that required her to take a medication that suppressed her immune system somewhat, but it was not clear whether the drug made her especially vulnerable to the virus.

A "minor" illness, requiring pretty serious medication.

FEAR PORN......or rather, an advertizement for NorthWestern

Probably something like psoriasis.

[tech37]

For those of you who have the stomach to click through - the damaged lung of a 20 year old who just got the first pair of transplant lungs due to the covid damage. It is amazing the patient survived until the transplant.

https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/12 ... 68609?s=21

Fear Porn

from the nyt article.

She had had a minor illness that required her to take a medication that suppressed her immune system somewhat, but it was not clear whether the drug made her especially vulnerable to the virus.

A "minor" illness, requiring pretty serious medication.

FEAR PORN......or rather, an advertizement for NorthWestern

Probably something like psoriasis.

Psoriasis can be nasty... as you know, the skin is an organ.

Point is, her immune system was suppressed. Who knows what part her lifestyle choices and/or DNA makeup played.

[Typical Lax Dad]

There is something odd about the Florida numbers. I have noticed that the deaths per day is always in a narrow band and usually in the 40’s day after day. The deaths seem low compared to other states with a similar case amount.

[RedFromMI]

Some states need to do some work with this COVID thing...

[runrussellrun]

Some states need to do some work with this COVID thing...

Suddenly, you are agreeing with White House Reality TV Star (WHRTVS ) tRump? It's about the STATES

Of course, the more we test, the number of cases of POSITIVES will go up. Which means, the mortatlity rate is going DOWN.

And......we just leave your nyt fear porn article alone ? You make a joke about what kind of meds the late 20 year old lung transplant person was using, or rather, for what purpose.

It's fear porn because precisely the reason the fearporn article makes NO mention of WHAT drug she was taking........thanks for the heads up, DOCS.

Or, perhaps, let everyone know that SOME drugs will increase the risk of getting V-19 symptoms.....but, what do I know. I'm not rich....or enough

[tech37]

The county I live in is a popular tourist area. Since Memorial Day weekend, we've seen the usual influx of downstate NY, LI, and NJ tourists and second home/lake camp owners.

I've been keeping an eye on the Covid-19 webpage for the county since this all began. For a few weeks and up until Mem Day, there had not been any new cases (and thankfully there was never many to begin with) but I expect an up tick with the downstate population's arrival. It's been a couple of weeks... nothing yet...

Also for weeks, free testing by appointment only has been available at the County Municipal Center. Not sure how many people have taken advantage. To date, 244 positive cases with 33 deaths (nursing homes/comorbidity).

[RedFromMI]

FDA ends emergency use of hydroxychloroquine for coronavirus

After reviewing new information from large clinical trials the agency now believes that the suggested dosing regimens "are unlikely to produce an antiviral effect," FDA chief scientist Denise Hinton said in a letter announcing the decision.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/1 ... ine-319872

This month two randomized controlled trials, considered the gold standard for determining whether a drug is effective, concluded that the drug does not prevent coronavirus infection and did not help hospitalized patients.

[ggait]

There is something odd about the Florida numbers. I have noticed that the deaths per day is always in a narrow band and usually in the 40’s day after day. The deaths seem low compared to other states with a similar case amount.

Go check out the site being done by the Covid data gal that Gov. Ron D fired. I wonder if she's showing different data.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/14/87658428 ... of-her-own

[ggait]

icymi, sweden had a v good week with their case fatalities in relative terms.
their 4th week in a row after peak. by memory, it was:
680
477
550
~450
high 200s this week.
haven't seen whether extra protections at elder care facilities are working yet, or if the spread is decreasing as they do little testing (supposedly ramping!!). the last several weeks' icu numbers predicted a decline imo.

i continue to be interested in their outcomes as i thought for a long time we would be practicing sweden-like measures once we got out of our caves. with the attendant differences between cultures, yada.

gives me hope. thought the burn may be slower and it may still be and maybe jump some next week as this seems like too big a drop in a week or 2. we shall see.

We haven't heard much about Sweden recently. Here's how they are doing:

Deaths per million of population:

Italy 568
Sweden 484
France 451
USA 357
Germany 106
Denmark 103
Finland 59
Norway 45
Iceland 29

UW now projects 8,534 deaths by August 4. Which would be 845. Even if they don't get near that projection, I think we now know the results of their experiment.

[runrussellrun]

icymi, sweden had a v good week with their case fatalities in relative terms.
their 4th week in a row after peak. by memory, it was:
680
477
550
~450
high 200s this week.
haven't seen whether extra protections at elder care facilities are working yet, or if the spread is decreasing as they do little testing (supposedly ramping!!). the last several weeks' icu numbers predicted a decline imo.

i continue to be interested in their outcomes as i thought for a long time we would be practicing sweden-like measures once we got out of our caves. with the attendant differences between cultures, yada.

gives me hope. thought the burn may be slower and it may still be and maybe jump some next week as this seems like too big a drop in a week or 2. we shall see.

We haven't heard much about Sweden recently. Here's how they are doing:

Deaths per million of population:

Italy 568
Sweden 484
France 451
USA 357
Germany 106
Denmark 103
Finland 59
Norway 45
Iceland 29

UW now projects 8,534 deaths by August 4. Which would be 845. Even if they don't get near that projection, I think we now know the results of their experiment.

and the deaths per million for those ages 40 years......and younger??????

exactly

open UP.....and say aaahhhh

[wgdsr]

icymi, sweden had a v good week with their case fatalities in relative terms.
their 4th week in a row after peak. by memory, it was:
680
477
550
~450
high 200s this week.
haven't seen whether extra protections at elder care facilities are working yet, or if the spread is decreasing as they do little testing (supposedly ramping!!). the last several weeks' icu numbers predicted a decline imo.

i continue to be interested in their outcomes as i thought for a long time we would be practicing sweden-like measures once we got out of our caves. with the attendant differences between cultures, yada.

gives me hope. thought the burn may be slower and it may still be and maybe jump some next week as this seems like too big a drop in a week or 2. we shall see.

We haven't heard much about Sweden recently. Here's how they are doing:

Deaths per million of population:

Italy 568
Sweden 484
France 451
USA 357
Germany 106
Denmark 103
Finland 59
Norway 45
Iceland 29

UW now projects 8,534 deaths by August 4. Which would be 845. Even if they don't get near that projection, I think we now know the results of their experiment.

unless you buy into the narrative that the pandemic is over?, sweden is playing the long game. we are in mid-june. that's about 3 months? into major change in policies at most locations that were getting hit.
i've seen a lot of optimism on vaccines, some mixed messaging on therapies. but no solution.
we now have countries and economies "opening up". what makes anyone think they know what will happen next?

UW IHME sure seems to have a good press secretary, but i'll bite. i will take the under on UW's projections. in fact, i'll make my own -- not an additional 3,600, but an additional 1,500 by august 4. sweden's case numbers have been spiking lately, something they claim is the result of more testing availability for those with mild symptoms, but i guess we'll see where that leads.

they're not running an experiment, they made health policy based on a number of variables. the one that they really missed the mark on early here was the elderly and nursing homes. much more so than even here in america. 88% of deaths were for people over 70, vs. about 70% in the u.s. over 2/3 were people over 80!
that also means that they have numbers for folks under 50, (and under 40, 30, etc.) that the united states would love to have vs. the reality. e.g. approx 5,000 deaths in the u.s. under age 50, vs the equivalent approx 1,600 per pop in sweden.

had they done a (much) better job of protecting the elderly, to date they'd be in much better shape. let's all hope we are getting into middle innings and sweden's numbers don't get approached by others.

and all that said, i've recently seen that as neighboring countries are opening their borders for trade and movement... sweden may be more isolated as countries could be wary of the prevalence of infection. ironic if it holds their country back for a while economically.

[RedFromMI]

icymi, sweden had a v good week with their case fatalities in relative terms.
their 4th week in a row after peak. by memory, it was:
680
477
550
~450
high 200s this week.
haven't seen whether extra protections at elder care facilities are working yet, or if the spread is decreasing as they do little testing (supposedly ramping!!). the last several weeks' icu numbers predicted a decline imo.

i continue to be interested in their outcomes as i thought for a long time we would be practicing sweden-like measures once we got out of our caves. with the attendant differences between cultures, yada.

gives me hope. thought the burn may be slower and it may still be and maybe jump some next week as this seems like too big a drop in a week or 2. we shall see.

We haven't heard much about Sweden recently. Here's how they are doing:

Deaths per million of population:

Italy 568
Sweden 484
France 451
USA 357
Germany 106
Denmark 103
Finland 59
Norway 45
Iceland 29

UW now projects 8,534 deaths by August 4. Which would be 845. Even if they don't get near that projection, I think we now know the results of their experiment.

and the deaths per million for those ages 40 years......and younger??????

exactly

open UP.....and say aaahhhh

For NYC, data through 6/14/2020:

Age range/deaths per million

Code: Select all

 0-17     0.064
18-44     2.39
45-64    18.9
65-74    62.2
  75+   155.0

https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... york-city/

Given the numbers above, I think the site is quoting per 100,000 population (I converted to per million) of all ages. So you would add the numbers to get the total death rate.

[calourie]

icymi, sweden had a v good week with their case fatalities in relative terms.
their 4th week in a row after peak. by memory, it was:
680
477
550
~450
high 200s this week.
haven't seen whether extra protections at elder care facilities are working yet, or if the spread is decreasing as they do little testing (supposedly ramping!!). the last several weeks' icu numbers predicted a decline imo.

i continue to be interested in their outcomes as i thought for a long time we would be practicing sweden-like measures once we got out of our caves. with the attendant differences between cultures, yada.

gives me hope. thought the burn may be slower and it may still be and maybe jump some next week as this seems like too big a drop in a week or 2. we shall see.

We haven't heard much about Sweden recently. Here's how they are doing:

Deaths per million of population:

Italy 568
Sweden 484
France 451
USA 357
Germany 106
Denmark 103
Finland 59
Norway 45
Iceland 29

UW now projects 8,534 deaths by August 4. Which would be 845. Even if they don't get near that projection, I think we now know the results of their experiment.

and the deaths per million for those ages 40 years......and younger??????

exactly

open UP.....and say aaahhhh

Don't forget to put your mask on in public, R3, assuming you care about the more vulnerable among us.