The Nation's Financial Condition

[MDlaxfan76]

BREAKING NEWS: On Thursday, June 11th, 502,209 people came through @TSA security checkpoints nationwide. It marked the first time the traveler count surpassed a half million since March 21st. One year ago, 2,675,686 travelers were screened at checkpoints across the country.

My son-in-law took a early morning flight from DCA to MSP yesterday and said that the flight was 100% full!!!!!!!!!!

Is that good news or bad news to you on both items?

Glass half full - travelers are returning, first time TSA # over half a million in 2+ mos.
Glass half empty - travelers staying away, only 20% thru TSA vs one year ago.

Glass half full - early morning flight booked full, airlines recovering.
Glass half empty - son-in-law's flight was full and he was what? Upset he had a seat neighbor? Upset he might be more likely to get CV19? What?

Are you blaming Trump for this or not? Everything else is his fault in your world.

Everything is political in your world view.

I understood it.

Planes are inherently not safe at this point for anyone who is in a high risk group or who is going to come in contact with those in a high risk group, and full planes are begging for accelerated transmission rates. Bad for all the rest of us.

My family and I want to get on a plane in late July. I've been hoping that airlines will institute procedures that greatly reduce transmission risk. I'm willing to pay double or triple to have that be the case.

But will airlines do so?
Sounds like no, they're just going to wing it.

None of that is about politics.

[MDlaxfan76]

Why???

The Trump administration believes names of borrowers from the Paycheck Protection Program and the amounts they receive are “proprietary,” and “confidential” in many cases, Mnuchin said Wednesday during a Senate committee hearing.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/economy ... e-released

What the heck...the application made clear the names and info would be released. Unambiguous.

Well, of course, we SUSPECT why.

[Nigel]

...here at the Water Cooler.

Did they refill the Water Cooler? I thought that was 'retired?'

[a fan]

...here at the Water Cooler.

Did the refill the Water Cooler? I thought that was 'retired?'

I just like the name. Can I top your coffee off, Nigel?

[Nigel]

The private equity crowd wants your 401(k) money.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/yikes ... le_inline


Buyer Beware.

[RedFromMI]

The private equity crowd wants your 401(k) money.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/yikes ... le_inline


Buyer Beware.

Since I am faculty, my 403b (same thing as a 401k for non-profits) is completely self-directed by me. Fat chance.

[Jim Malone]

It seems to be getting to point where Americans are/will be satisfied with trillion dollar deficits to be paid in their golden years, by their children and children's children based upon the way all keep voting the same folk in Congressional House and Senate election after election.

[holmes435]

But will airlines do so?
Sounds like no, they're just going to wing it.

[Farfromgeneva]

It seems to be getting to point where Americans are/will be satisfied with trillion dollar deficits to be paid in their golden years, by their children and children's children based upon the way all keep voting the same folk in Congressional House and Senate election after election.

Burden is only going to increase even if we were neutral for decades going forward

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Cens ... ctions.pdf

[Nigel]

27,572

25,128 - 27,572 = (2,444) or -9.7%.

Just another buying opportunity. Glad to see them.

See you at 30,000.

27,572 was a selling opportunity.....

Probably not a good idea,


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

[njbill]

S&P still down 10% from high in February. That’s all I care about. I want to make money, not lose it.

[njbill]

Interesting that 22 of the 28 entries on that chart occurred under Republican presidents. Let’s call January 20, 2009 a wash since the day was split.

I wonder how this chart would look if we added in Herbert Hoover’s numbers?

[Typical Lax Dad]

27,572

25,128 - 27,572 = (2,444) or -9.7%.

Just another buying opportunity. Glad to see them.

See you at 30,000.

27,572 was a selling opportunity.....

Probably not a good idea,


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

I sold at 26,000 on the dip and bought back in under 20,000. Someone was selling when the market dropped 1,800 points.

[Farfromgeneva]

S&P still down 10% from high in February. That’s all I care about. I want to make money, not lose it.

That’s probably healthy as a correction because we were pretty extended by Jan. Even before Covid there were signs of the air coming out of things and frankly, the breadth of the rise is pretty weak. There’s a group of 5-25 stocks that are driving the market up these days. It’s not reflecting the broader economy by even a small bit currently despite what some people insist or believe.

[Farfromgeneva]

27,572

25,128 - 27,572 = (2,444) or -9.7%.

Just another buying opportunity. Glad to see them.

See you at 30,000.

27,572 was a selling opportunity.....

Probably not a good idea,


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

I sold at 26,000 on the dip and bought back in under 20,000. Someone was selling when the market dropped 1,800 points.

I took about $10k of rainy day liquidity and threw it in mid-late March but didn’t feel great about it because it left me less dry powder for late Q3 -Q1 when I think better opportunities will arise, not just in equity markets.

[Typical Lax Dad]

27,572

25,128 - 27,572 = (2,444) or -9.7%.

Just another buying opportunity. Glad to see them.

See you at 30,000.

27,572 was a selling opportunity.....

Probably not a good idea,


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

I sold at 26,000 on the dip and bought back in under 20,000. Someone was selling when the market dropped 1,800 points.

I took about $10k of rainy day liquidity and threw it in mid-late March but didn’t feel great about it because it left me less dry powder for late Q3 -Q1 when I think better opportunities will arise, not just in equity markets.

Yep

[njbill]

S&P still down 10% from high in February. That’s all I care about. I want to make money, not lose it.

That’s probably healthy as a correction because we were pretty extended by Jan. Even before Covid there were signs of the air coming out of things and frankly, the breadth of the rise is pretty weak. There’s a group of 5-25 stocks that are driving the market up these days. It’s not reflecting the broader economy by even a small bit currently despite what some people insist or believe.

Yeah, that’s what some of the so-called “experts” said. Course some have been saying similar things for a couple of years now. Who knows?

I think the volatility we have seen in recent months is pretty nearly 100% Covid related.

Agree that this recent rally is not reflective of the broader economy. Have seen some commentary that this type of possible/probable temporary rally is not uncommon in recessions and may not be indicative that we are on the way back or even have hit bottom.

[Farfromgeneva]

Well history means nothing but if the 100yr range is 12-22x forward T-12 earnings and the S&P 500 was running at OT above 22x next years analyst forecasts before Feb that would imply we were pretty extended. We are also the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry and with global sterilization and monetary flooding we are the best place to park money but fair value is like a pendulum. We were heading down at some point, can’t say when but equities were are best fully valued and at worst highly overvalued coming into 2020. So if it’s just 10% that’s healthy but having worked on some bank books and knowing the regulators have allowed banks to temporarily suspend both gaap accounting and CECL I know there’s some ostrich activity going on but before year end it will have to be recognized for many. The trickle down will be what it is.

[njbill]

I agree with this. Market certainly seemed to be overheated early in the year. Trump pumping money in is a temporary Band-Aid. Yes, if the correction is only 10%, that would be great. But I think COVID-19 has been a grenade exploding on the market. Could see more short range volatility, but I’m not optimistic for midterm prospects. I fear there’s been too much damage to too many segments of the market.

[cradleandshoot]

BREAKING NEWS: On Thursday, June 11th, 502,209 people came through @TSA security checkpoints nationwide. It marked the first time the traveler count surpassed a half million since March 21st. One year ago, 2,675,686 travelers were screened at checkpoints across the country.

My son-in-law took a early morning flight from DCA to MSP yesterday and said that the flight was 100% full!!!!!!!!!!

Is that good news or bad news to you on both items?

Glass half full - travelers are returning, first time TSA # over half a million in 2+ mos.
Glass half empty - travelers staying away, only 20% thru TSA vs one year ago.

Glass half full - early morning flight booked full, airlines recovering.
Glass half empty - son-in-law's flight was full and he was what? Upset he had a seat neighbor? Upset he might be more likely to get CV19? What?

Are you blaming Trump for this or not? Everything else is his fault in your world.

Everything is political in your world view.

I understood it.

Planes are inherently not safe at this point for anyone who is in a high risk group or who is going to come in contact with those in a high risk group, and full planes are begging for accelerated transmission rates. Bad for all the rest of us.

My family and I want to get on a plane in late July. I've been hoping that airlines will institute procedures that greatly reduce transmission risk. I'm willing to pay double or triple to have that be the case.

But will airlines do so?
Sounds like no, they're just going to wing it.

None of that is about politics.

If your worried about planes you should talk with my oldest son. He is a Federal Air Marshall. You know what they deal with everyday, especially on overseas flights? They deal with the understanding that bad people are trying non stop to blow these planes up in mid air. You would be most disconcerted if you knew just how close they are getting to be able to accomplish that. Covid is something to be concerned about. Being blown up in a plane at 35,000 feet is more of a threat than you realize.