All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[ggait]

Wgdsr.

I don’t see any data or analysis in your post.

So I’ll stick with what the domain experts from the Yale School of Public Health say. Which is that we were past 100k deaths weeks ahead of the official tally.

[calourie]

I look to data to indicate trends. As long as the data is gathered in a consistent way by whoever is doing the gathering a conscientious information tracker should be able to tell if the incidence and deaths from the virus is going up or down. It would be logical to assume that an increase in testing would reveal more cases, while at the same time providing more accurate cause of death assessment. The less ambiguous the data the clearer the trends, as well as the ability to determine the effectiveness or ill effects of any measures taken either to curb the infection rate or hasten the opening up of social interaction. I tend to follow information from the worldometer and Washington U. IHME sites to try to keep track of what is going on in terms of cases and deaths, both of which along with the Johns Hopkins site present numbers which are pretty consistent across the board with only minor discrepancies, which is good enough for me regardless of the skepticism of some who contribute to this thread.

[kramerica.inc]

WHO and many nations changed their Covid plans based on a total crock of shiit

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... hloroquine

[DocBarrister]

Texas and Florida are surging with new coronavirus cases, and the United States has just passed 110,000 deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

DocBarrister

[Bart]

Wgdsr.

I don’t see any data or analysis in your post.

So I’ll stick with what the domain experts from the Yale School of Public Health say. Which is that we were past 100k deaths weeks ahead of the official tally.

Which domain experts are we to stick with? They are all over the place. That is not a knock, it is the nature of science and the domain experts will coalesce around a set of data as things settle.

[MDlaxfan76]

Wgdsr.

I don’t see any data or analysis in your post.

So I’ll stick with what the domain experts from the Yale School of Public Health say. Which is that we were past 100k deaths weeks ahead of the official tally.

Which domain experts are we to stick with? They are all over the place. That is not a knock, it is the nature of science and the domain experts will coalesce around a set of data as things settle.

wgdsr suggested, more in a hypothetical sense, that the domain experts might range from 85k to 125k. I haven't seen any credible scientists saying we're only at 85k, that there's actually that magnitude of mislabelled deaths. A few yes, but I haven't seen any of the scientists in this field actually having data that would suggest we're not past 100k now, and lots of analysis suggesting that we are indeed underestimating by 15-25% the actual deaths from COVID...

And that's not all "excess deaths" some of which may well be from related to but not direct effects of having the virus, so should not be considered medically caused by the virus itself. That said, even these are related to the magnitude of the epidemic and the reactions to address it, whether because people are afraid to go to a hospital, are depressed, or otherwise.

I do agree with wgdsr that it really doesn't matter, these numbers are all horrifyingly large. But it does bother me when there's this constant effort to pooh pooh the virus' impact and ignore how bad this could yet become if we aren't careful and work like heck to defeat it going forward.

[Matnum PI]

With all the protests and marches throughout the country, for many, social distancing has been all but ignored. This being the case, I'm curious how many new cases will come as a result.

[youthathletics]

With all the protests and marches throughout the country, for many, social distancing has been all but ignored. This being the case, I'm curious how many new cases will come as a result.

Let's assume for a moment that in the cities of major protests, we see major spikes and trend lines up.....who owns this? The black community or the governors for allowing it or do we blame a single police officer?

[runrussellrun]

We crossed 110th street in # of deaths today.

Hey, so. Doesn't affect you, so why do you care?

[Matnum PI]

Let's assume for a moment that in the cities of major protests, we see major spikes and trend lines up.....who owns this? The black community or the governors for allowing it or do we blame a single police officer?

My interest is less blame and more, What if. We're being told about the importance of social distancing. Which I believe is true and... What if we didn't/don't. Which is precisely what is happening/happened. I'm curious what the implications of the lack of social distancing is.

[Matnum PI]

Let's assume for a moment that in the cities of major protests, we see major spikes and trend lines up.....who owns this? The black community or the governors for allowing it or do we blame a single police officer?

My interest is less blame and more, What if. We're being told about the importance of social distancing. Which I believe is true and... What if we didn't/don't. Which is precisely what is happening/happened. I'm curious what the implications of the lack of social distancing is.

[Typical Lax Dad]

We crossed 110th street in # of deaths today.

Hey, so. Doesn't affect you, so why do you care?

It effects everyone and is potentially a health hazard and an economic hazard to everyone. But what do you care? It is all a global lie. The thought that stick technology has led to increased ball retention is also a lie!

[runrussellrun]

Over 100k dead.......complete B.S. I mean, seriously, who at this point does NOT know that putting V=19 down as cause of death is financially beneficially......as a method of accuracy.......is someone NOT to be trusted With anything. Maybe starting the grill.......but, the over 100 K death count, is a lie. This, can be proven. Especially, in a court of law.

3R -- you are just incorrect about this.

Using 100% standard methodology, the experts say we passed 100k deaths about three weeks sooner than when the tally hit 100k.

Best/universal way to measure is "excess deaths" method. The numbers are completely clear and solid.

Explanation below.


Between March 1 and May 9, the nation recorded an estimated 101,600 excess deaths, or deaths beyond the number that would normally be expected for that time of year, according to an analysis conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health. That figure reflects about 26,000 more fatalities than were attributed to covid-19 on death certificates during that period, according to federal data.

Such “excess death” analyses are a standard tool used by epidemiologists to gauge the true toll of infectious-disease outbreaks and other widespread disasters.

The Yale-led team used historical death data to estimate the expected number of deaths for each week this year, adjusting for such factors as seasonal variation and the intensity of flu epidemics. To calculate excess deaths, the researchers subtracted their estimate of expected deaths from the overall number of deaths reported by the National Center for Health Statistics.

The covid-19 death toll, a key data point in shaping the public-health response to the pandemic, has become a political flash point. Allies of President Trump have claimed that the government tally is inflated, contending that it includes people with other medical conditions who would have died with or without an infection.

The Yale-led analysis, however, suggests that the actual number of people who have died because of the pandemic is far greater than the official government death tallies. The researchers estimated that the number of excess deaths between March 1 and May 9 was most likely between 97,500 and 105,500.

Could you expand/expound upon the bolded? Allies of Trump, who don't believe Trumps government numbers? Fiction

As stated a few weeks back. One family member has been listed as a covid death. This 79 year old family members was in a vegatative state, since December. Alzehiemers...... Of course COVID took him. Of COURSE it did.

GGAIT.....I notice you, and others, completely ignore the financial aspects of "rewarding" a covid death with additional money/funds. Does the YALE study factor this as well? A big NO. GGAIT, it doesn't , in even the slighest, seem odd that covid deaths get MONEY, but alzehiemer deaths do not ? Being completely serious. George , the murder victim, tested positive for covid. So, covid killed George, NOT the garbage of a person, pig cop Chauvin. Seriously, can't it be argued that George died from Covid? That, had he NOT been infected, his lungs would have been able to provide enough oxygen , so George would not have died from the ability to not breath. Do I have this right? A man, suffering from a horrible disease, alzehiemers, in the last days of his life, gets taken by 'covid? really? And financial benefits is NOT factored in? It HAS to be......

George lyodd died from covid, NOT the pig cop. Do I have this right? because, he was positive. Do you know, ggait? Is if fair to count Georges death as a covid death? Since, he did have it?

[runrussellrun]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... tudy-finds

When I walk around with my mask covering my EYES too......boy, the looks I get.

This is in Boston. Should I not be covering my eyes with the mask?

Early on in this fear porn fest, we were told to not touch our face (eyes/nose concerns ) Is this NOT being emphasized any longer?

[ggait]

Excess mortality analysis has been the totally standard methodology used by public health officials for over a century. Every piece of data you read about the 1918 pandemic? All excess mortality analysis. When this pandemic is over, all of the analysis and stats will be based on excess mortality analysis.

The reason for this is to get around all of the possible errors and mixed causes/attribution that comes by doing the data on a one-by-one basis. Did this person die of pneumonia vs. heart attack vs. Covid? Often, the answer is all of the above or we don't know. So the way the pros do it is to look at how many dead bodies there are versus how many were expected. Then they look to see what was going on -- earthquake, flood, war, famine, pandemic, etc. etc. etc. Because people have to die of something.

So not surprisingly, that's the analysis used by folks like the smarties at Yale School of Public Health.

It can get a little tricky when trying to do the analysis in real time, but it really is the standard/best way to analyze. If you want to measure temp, you use a thermometer. If you want to measure a pandemic, you use excess mortality.

And based on standard analysis, there is ZERO doubt that we passed 100k deaths several weeks before the tally hit 100k.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... tudy-finds

When I walk around with my mask covering my EYES too......boy, the looks I get.

This is in Boston. Should I not be covering my eyes with the mask?

Early on in this fear porn fest, we were told to not touch our face (eyes/nose concerns ) Is this NOT being emphasized any longer?

It’s all a lie.

[ggait]

I missed this a couple of days ago, but the UMinn clinical trial says HCQ is an airball as a preventive.

Many other trials still going on. Some looking at HCQ as a treatment (especially early on) and also as part of a cocktail. So those angles are still TBD.

[ggait]

When I walk around with my mask covering my EYES too......boy, the looks I get.

This is in Boston. Should I not be covering my eyes with the mask?

Early on in this fear porn fest, we were told to not touch our face (eyes/nose concerns ) Is this NOT being emphasized any longer?

Part of the benefit from masks, gloves, glasses is the physical barrier placed in the typical transmission path. But another part is the behavior modification and mindfulness.

Easy to tell people to not touch their face, nose, eyes with their hands (or to stop smoking or lose weight). But doing it is harder, especially since humans habitually do that thousands of time a day. The gloves/mask/glasses are a reminder and slow you down a bit. If you are wearing glasses, it takes a little more effort to rub your eyes.

Mindfulness -- like tie-ing a string around your finger to remember something.

[runrussellrun]

Excess mortality analysis has been the totally standard methodology used by public health officials for over a century. Every piece of data you read about the 1918 pandemic? All excess mortality analysis. When this pandemic is over, all of the analysis and stats will be based on excess mortality analysis.

The reason for this is to get around all of the possible errors and mixed causes/attribution that comes by doing the data on a one-by-one basis. Did this person die of pneumonia vs. heart attack vs. Covid? Often, the answer is all of the above or we don't know. So the way the pros do it is to look at how many dead bodies there are versus how many were expected. Then they look to see what was going on -- earthquake, flood, war, famine, pandemic, etc. etc. etc. Because people have to die of something.

So not surprisingly, that's the analysis used by folks like the smarties at Yale School of Public Health.

It can get a little tricky when trying to do the analysis in real time, but it really is the standard/best way to analyze. If you want to measure temp, you use a thermometer. If you want to measure a pandemic, you use excess mortality.

And based on standard analysis, there is ZERO doubt that we passed 100k deaths several weeks before the tally hit 100k.

ggait, you keep on ignoring the financial aspects of listing COVID on the death cert.

[RedFromMI]

(omitted discussion of why there is an undercount)


ggait, you keep on ignoring the financial aspects of listing COVID on the death cert.

And any hospital would have to back up a claim of COVID in legally getting such an increased reimbursement. There are disincentives to get this wrong.