We are unlikely to get good data, but what is happening in Brazil is another indication of the lethality when the virus is unchecked and health systems become overwhelmed.
NY had only a few days of actually being overwhelmed and only in some locations, but they were immensely stretched to the max for an extended period of time. No one had been down the experience curve on the management of the disease at that point. We're hearing that deaths of those intubated has dropped from 80% to 30%, so it's possible that we've learned how to manage seriously ill patients better and can do so when we can pay adequate attention to each patient who presents.
The problem is that while we've learned how to keep many from actually dying, especially younger patients, we're seeing all sorts of serious organ damage that's going to be a problem for the seriously ill ongoing. But most of the dying is among the most frail.
Italy was quite overwhelmed.
I would not be surprised if we learned that many in India had some immunity to this particular virus. We still don't know exactly where this virus actually originated, all we know really is where the first bloom of deaths hit (Wuhan) and some of the paths from there. And it may be that a similar enough virus had preexisted this one in India, etc. But that is way outside the box speculation.
All things Chinese CoronaVirus
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:15 am Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.
Best take from JW:
“ This much is certain after all this rioting: in two weeks we’re either going to have a sh-tload of sick Democrats, or we’re going to realize COVID-19 was not what Democrats said it was.”
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
I think there is nothing certain at all about this thing because:Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:14 amkramerica.inc wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:15 am Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.
Best take from JW:
“ This much is certain after all this rioting: in two weeks we’re either going to have a sh-tload of sick Democrats, or we’re going to realize COVID-19 was not what Democrats said it was.”
1. Those at the protest will not interact with only individuals of like minded political affiliation. I do not see too many Republican or Democratic only grocery stores.
2. The nature of interactions have change from predominantly inside in closed spaces with varying degrees of air circulation to out door interactions.
- MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
and most of those out protesting during the day and/or rioting at night are young, those least likely to present with symptoms themselves. Their families, their co-workers, their casual acquaintances, those at the local bar, etc are a different matter and, nope, no telling the party affiliation of the older folks they will be in contact with...good news on the grocery side, the rules are pretty darn strict and are going to stay strict for a good while, so it's actually a very low transmission area. Grocery workers themselves are doing quite well, given the precautions.Bart wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:48 pmI think there is nothing certain at all about this thing because:Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:14 amkramerica.inc wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:15 am Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.
Best take from JW:
“ This much is certain after all this rioting: in two weeks we’re either going to have a sh-tload of sick Democrats, or we’re going to realize COVID-19 was not what Democrats said it was.”
1. Those at the protest will not interact with only individuals of like minded political affiliation. I do not see too many Republican or Democratic only grocery stores.
2. The nature of interactions have change from predominantly inside in closed spaces with varying degrees of air circulation to out door interactions.
I think in general we're going to see lower transmission rates than we did in the winter, this is mostly happening airborne in confined areas. But it's indeed worrisome.
- youthathletics
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Curious...has anyone received a Visa Debit Card from..Money Network Cardholder Services. Appears to be the the Economic Impact Card as a result of COVID 19? Seems legit from this website: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-u ... paid-card/
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Just stop. Your Republican President and your Republican leaders shut down the economy, too. Right now, States are operating with White House guidance from Fauci. And that's a Republican Administration, in case you've forgotten. Don't like the shutdown? Complain to Trump.Peter Brown wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:14 amBest take from JW:kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:15 am Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.
“ This much is certain after all this rioting: in two weeks we’re either going to have a sh-tload of sick Democrats, or we’re going to realize COVID-19 was not what Democrats said it was.”
Right now? My State is more open than your State of Florida. So give it a Fing rest with this stuff that not even you believe.
Stop trolling.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
They are all taking Orange Duce's medical advice - taking Chloroquine or lower doses of Chloroquine phosphate, its all they can afford.kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:15 am Well, with all the riots and protests, I expect we'll see just how contagious this thing really is in the next couple weeks.
STAND AGAINST FASCISM
- cradleandshoot
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Walking in NYC makes a hell of a lot more sense than trying to drive.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 7:58 pmPeople in nyc walk more than most other places.RedFromMI wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 6:27 pmActually NYC can have more walking than a lot of suburbs - typical suburban trip to the grocery is to pile in the car and drive a couple/few (or more) miles so the only walking is in the parking lot. NYC is quite walkable in many places, and there are small parks everywhere (plus some monster parks like Central Park and the NY Arboretum in the Bronx).youthathletics wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 5:51 pmJust thinking outside the box...wonder if NYC was so high with the elderly b/c they are also more sedentary, in the confines of the city. Elevators everywhere, grocery story within a couple blocks, cabs and subway with in a couple blocks?wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 4:09 pmfor whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.RedFromMI wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 3:29 pmAnd their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 12:35 pm Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
Bob Ross:
Bob Ross:
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
And many times in midtown Manhattan it was (not right now) much faster - especially if you want to go across town on the numbered streets in the late afternoon.cradleandshoot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:55 amWalking in NYC makes a hell of a lot more sense than trying to drive.Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 7:58 pmPeople in nyc walk more than most other places.RedFromMI wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 6:27 pmActually NYC can have more walking than a lot of suburbs - typical suburban trip to the grocery is to pile in the car and drive a couple/few (or more) miles so the only walking is in the parking lot. NYC is quite walkable in many places, and there are small parks everywhere (plus some monster parks like Central Park and the NY Arboretum in the Bronx).youthathletics wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 5:51 pmJust thinking outside the box...wonder if NYC was so high with the elderly b/c they are also more sedentary, in the confines of the city. Elevators everywhere, grocery story within a couple blocks, cabs and subway with in a couple blocks?wgdsr wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 4:09 pmfor whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.RedFromMI wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 3:29 pmAnd their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 12:35 pm Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.
- youthathletics
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Interesting this leak comes out less than a week AFTER Trump pulls funding to WHO. WHO now shining the spot light where Trump had it all along? Money talks...especially when you (the WHO) aren't going to get as much. Less us forget....China is the bad guy in all this....it's not partisan, unless you are a commie.tech37 wrote: ↑Fri May 29, 2020 9:45 pmI agree it may be more a shot across bow than anything youth. And perhaps the loss of funding may force a change to WHO leadership that may have become too intimate with the Chicoms.youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri May 29, 2020 9:29 pmThey certainly seem like a 3rd party that just gets in the way. Where influence may have set aside real work. Remember our CDC directly requesting help, multiple times to China, only to have fallen on deaf ears. WHO appears to have slipped on their on peel. This moves appears like a forceful move to hit them where it hurts and demand they clean up ‘possible’ internal shortcomings.
https://news.yahoo.com/leaked-documents ... soc_trk=fb
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Interested in math? Here is an interesting webinar put on by the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis. The speaker is Nina Fefferman and she gives a good oversight in the modeling used in mathematical epidemiology. It was posted at the end of March. She does a good job building a simple SIR model (suseptable, infected, recovered). It is long, 1:22:00 but easy to understand. There are some shorter videos on the SIR model but she addresses some topics not covered in those and if you can make it to the end the answers to questions posed to her are worth it.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Right youth... I heard a report on radio today that, behind the scenes, the WHO was really upset with China's behavior re pandemic. What a crock of unmitigated BS! Yes my friend, money talks...youthathletics wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:23 pmInteresting this leak comes out less than a week AFTER Trump pulls funding to WHO. WHO now shining the spot light where Trump had it all along? Money talks...especially when you (the WHO) aren't going to get as much. Less us forget....China is the bad guy in all this....it's not partisan, unless you are a commie.tech37 wrote: ↑Fri May 29, 2020 9:45 pmI agree it may be more a shot across bow than anything youth. And perhaps the loss of funding may force a change to WHO leadership that may have become too intimate with the Chicoms.youthathletics wrote: ↑Fri May 29, 2020 9:29 pmThey certainly seem like a 3rd party that just gets in the way. Where influence may have set aside real work. Remember our CDC directly requesting help, multiple times to China, only to have fallen on deaf ears. WHO appears to have slipped on their on peel. This moves appears like a forceful move to hit them where it hurts and demand they clean up ‘possible’ internal shortcomings.
https://news.yahoo.com/leaked-documents ... soc_trk=fb
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Supporting info from WION. Palki Sharma is on it. She's a breathe of fresh air and has quality reports.
If we need that extra push over the cliff, ya know what we do...eleven, exactly.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
So in about a week, with the riots entering week2 tonight, we will know- can we open everything as long as it’s outside?
My guess is yes.
Time to enjoy the Back yard, outdoor restaurants, the community pool, public beach and boardwalk!
My guess is yes.
Time to enjoy the Back yard, outdoor restaurants, the community pool, public beach and boardwalk!
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
I certainly hope so, because just about every State in the Union has opened up the outdoors!kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:34 am So in about a week, with the riots entering week2 tonight, we will know- can we open everything as long as it’s outside?
My guess is yes.
Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
\kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:34 am So in about a week, with the riots entering week2 tonight, we will know- can we open everything as long as it’s outside?
My guess is yes.
Time to enjoy the Back yard, outdoor restaurants, the community pool, public beach and boardwalk!
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you here but what evidence has you guessing this way? From my armchair QB position is appears that there may be a seasonality to it all but I have not seen anything really definitive to back that up. A quick google search indicates that the virus may settle into a seasonal flux eventually but perhaps not so soon?
Curios is you have found resources that indicate other wise. Thanks.
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Large global study affirms face masks reduce COVID-19 infection risk by 85 percent
Actual study here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 9/fulltext
Other takeaways: "The risk of transmitting the new coronavirus without a mask or respirator is 17.4 percent, but with a mask that falls to 3.1 percent, the study found, though the researchers noted there's a higher amount of uncertainty on mask wearing than physical distancing. Keeping a distance of less than 1 meter (3.3 feet) and no other protective measure carried a transmission risk of 12.8 percent, cut to 2.6 percent when the distance was more than 1 meter and even lower at 2 meters (6.6. feet). There was also a sharp cut in risk with eye protection"
So face masks, eye protection and social distancing are pretty darn effective.
Actual study here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 9/fulltext
Other takeaways: "The risk of transmitting the new coronavirus without a mask or respirator is 17.4 percent, but with a mask that falls to 3.1 percent, the study found, though the researchers noted there's a higher amount of uncertainty on mask wearing than physical distancing. Keeping a distance of less than 1 meter (3.3 feet) and no other protective measure carried a transmission risk of 12.8 percent, cut to 2.6 percent when the distance was more than 1 meter and even lower at 2 meters (6.6. feet). There was also a sharp cut in risk with eye protection"
So face masks, eye protection and social distancing are pretty darn effective.
- youthathletics
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus
Dr. Fauci said it was gonna come back in a second wave, the if we weren't good little boys and girls it might come back in a second wave, oh wait, he then walked that back a again and is now optimistic that it wont be that bad. He's all over the place....maybe he caught whatever Joe Biden has.Bart wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:30 am\kramerica.inc wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:34 am So in about a week, with the riots entering week2 tonight, we will know- can we open everything as long as it’s outside?
My guess is yes.
Time to enjoy the Back yard, outdoor restaurants, the community pool, public beach and boardwalk!
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you here but what evidence has you guessing this way? From my armchair QB position is appears that there may be a seasonality to it all but I have not seen anything really definitive to back that up. A quick google search indicates that the virus may settle into a seasonal flux eventually but perhaps not so soon?
Curios is you have found resources that indicate other wise. Thanks.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
~Livy
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard