All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[RedFromMI]

This just showed up in my Twitter feed as a reminder:

The end of stay-at-home orders doesn't mean the pandemic is over. It means they currently have room for you in the ICU.

What's your point?

Continue to be careful...(think in the context of all the protests plus things like the now infamous Lake of the Ozarks pool party)

[youthathletics]

This just showed up in my Twitter feed as a reminder:

The end of stay-at-home orders doesn't mean the pandemic is over. It means they currently have room for you in the ICU.

What's your point?

Continue to be careful...(think in the context of all the protests plus things like the now infamous Lake of the Ozarks pool party)

We should know something in about two weeks if the virus ramps up in protesting cities.

[Brooklyn]

re - News bulletin - North Carolina National Guard to be deployed here in Lake Wobegone.

Are they there without your Governor's invitation ?

Evidently, no. Trump ordered more action by his Sect of "defense" who has taken this step:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/30/pentago ... polis.html

The Pentagon has taken the rare step of ordering the Army to put several active-duty U.S. military police units on the ready to deploy to Minneapolis ... a Pentagon spokesman said Walz did not ask for the Army to be deployed to his state.


So much for the idea of right wing states rights independence.

[old salt]

re - News bulletin - North Carolina National Guard to be deployed here in Lake Wobegone.

Are they there without your Governor's invitation ?

Evidently, no. Trump ordered more action by his Sect of "defense" who has taken this step:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/30/pentago ... polis.html

The Pentagon has taken the rare step of ordering the Army to put several active-duty U.S. military police units on the ready to deploy to Minneapolis ... a Pentagon spokesman said Walz did not ask for the Army to be deployed to his state.


So much for the idea of right wing states rights independence.

Just to be clear -- have Regular Army or other states National Guard units deployed into MN ? Yes or No ?

[Brooklyn]

Just to be clear -- have Regular Army or other states National Guard units deployed into MN ? Yes or No ?

According to this media source they remain on standby:

https://kstp.com/news/members-of-82-air ... a/5745867/


Note how they were told to keep their weapons at home. Nobody in Lake Wobegone wants them here.

[MDlaxfan76]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

[MDlaxfan76]

This just showed up in my Twitter feed as a reminder:

The end of stay-at-home orders doesn't mean the pandemic is over. It means they currently have room for you in the ICU.

What's your point?

Continue to be careful...(think in the context of all the protests plus things like the now infamous Lake of the Ozarks pool party)

We should know something in about two weeks if the virus ramps up in protesting cities.

It'll take closer to 6 weeks than 2 weeks to really show full impact, given multiplier.

Of course, it may be difficult to disaggregate the impact of protest crowds on virus spread versus other opening, especially as these protests have been so widespread in so many urban areas, with many of the protestors clearly not being from the immediate community where the protest is occurring. Very young (late teen, 20's and 30's) demographic, across racial lines).

As these younger people are less likely to become seriously symptomatic, the impacts will be mostly be first seen upon the next generations of spread to older folks they eventually spread it to, rather than themselves. That's why more like 6 weeks than 2 weeks.

We really do not have the test and trace capabilities stood up to track these activities versus other 'opening up' activities, whether the knuckleheads in the Ozarks, or just spread in congregated work situations. That said, some of it may be discernible as traced.

Let's hope the outdoor aspects mitigate the spread rate and/or the virus becomes less deadly as we move through these next months.

[a fan]

This just showed up in my Twitter feed as a reminder:

The end of stay-at-home orders doesn't mean the pandemic is over. It means they currently have room for you in the ICU.

What's your point?

Continue to be careful...(think in the context of all the protests plus things like the now infamous Lake of the Ozarks pool party)

We should know something in about two weeks if the virus ramps up in protesting cities.

Totally. An unfortunate experiment.

[Typical Lax Dad]

This just showed up in my Twitter feed as a reminder:

The end of stay-at-home orders doesn't mean the pandemic is over. It means they currently have room for you in the ICU.

What's your point?

Continue to be careful...(think in the context of all the protests plus things like the now infamous Lake of the Ozarks pool party)

We should know something in about two weeks if the virus ramps up in protesting cities.

It'll take closer to 6 weeks than 2 weeks to really show full impact, given multiplier.

Of course, it may be difficult to disaggregate the impact of protest crowds on virus spread versus other opening, especially as these protests have been so widespread in so many urban areas, with many of the protestors clearly not being from the immediate community where the protest is occurring. Very young (late teen, 20's and 30's) demographic, across racial lines).

As these younger people are less likely to become seriously symptomatic, the impacts will be mostly be first seen upon the next generations of spread to older folks they eventually spread it to, rather than themselves. That's why more like 6 weeks than 2 weeks.

We really do not have the test and trace capabilities stood up to track these activities versus other 'opening up' activities, whether the knuckleheads in the Ozarks, or just spread in congregated work situations. That said, some of it may be discernible as traced.

Let's hope the outdoor aspects mitigate the spread rate and/or the virus becomes less deadly as we move through these next months.

Where are we on testing capacity?

[MDlaxfan76]

This just showed up in my Twitter feed as a reminder:

The end of stay-at-home orders doesn't mean the pandemic is over. It means they currently have room for you in the ICU.

What's your point?

Continue to be careful...(think in the context of all the protests plus things like the now infamous Lake of the Ozarks pool party)

We should know something in about two weeks if the virus ramps up in protesting cities.

It'll take closer to 6 weeks than 2 weeks to really show full impact, given multiplier.

Of course, it may be difficult to disaggregate the impact of protest crowds on virus spread versus other opening, especially as these protests have been so widespread in so many urban areas, with many of the protestors clearly not being from the immediate community where the protest is occurring. Very young (late teen, 20's and 30's) demographic, across racial lines).

As these younger people are less likely to become seriously symptomatic, the impacts will be mostly be first seen upon the next generations of spread to older folks they eventually spread it to, rather than themselves. That's why more like 6 weeks than 2 weeks.

We really do not have the test and trace capabilities stood up to track these activities versus other 'opening up' activities, whether the knuckleheads in the Ozarks, or just spread in congregated work situations. That said, some of it may be discernible as traced.

Let's hope the outdoor aspects mitigate the spread rate and/or the virus becomes less deadly as we move through these next months.

Where are we on testing capacity?

We have way more tests available today, though not enough for the "you want a test, you get a test" concept, but that's not really the issue...we don't have the people and processes stood up to do large scale, test, trace, isolate.

The scale of this thing remains too large relative to the people and processes stood up...hopefully the wiser heads will focus on getting that all in place for the fall wave, but I don't think we're remotely close yet to being able to squelch the coming summer waves/outbursts.

Hope I'm wrong.

[RedFromMI]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

And their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%

[wgdsr]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

And their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%

for whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.

[youthathletics]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

And their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%

for whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.

Just thinking outside the box...wonder if NYC was so high with the elderly b/c they are also more sedentary, in the confines of the city. Elevators everywhere, grocery story within a couple blocks, cabs and subway with in a couple blocks?

[old salt]

We really do not have the test and trace capabilities stood up to track these activities versus other 'opening up' activities, whether the knuckleheads in the Ozarks, or just spread in congregated work situations. That said, some of it may be discernible as traced.

Let's hope the outdoor aspects mitigate the spread rate and/or the virus becomes less deadly as we move through these next months.

That generated a lot of attention & outrage in MO. Many calls for voluntary isolation for attendees. Employers questioning their employees where they spent Mem Day wk end before being allowed back in the workspace.
It could make for an interesting PH study on outdoor, open air spread. I wonder if Blackwater Jack's can legally provide their credit card receipts to the State Health Dept, for contact tracing.

[RedFromMI]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

And their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%

for whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.

Just thinking outside the box...wonder if NYC was so high with the elderly b/c they are also more sedentary, in the confines of the city. Elevators everywhere, grocery story within a couple blocks, cabs and subway with in a couple blocks?

Actually NYC can have more walking than a lot of suburbs - typical suburban trip to the grocery is to pile in the car and drive a couple/few (or more) miles so the only walking is in the parking lot. NYC is quite walkable in many places, and there are small parks everywhere (plus some monster parks like Central Park and the NY Arboretum in the Bronx).

[Typical Lax Dad]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

And their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%

for whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.

Just thinking outside the box...wonder if NYC was so high with the elderly b/c they are also more sedentary, in the confines of the city. Elevators everywhere, grocery story within a couple blocks, cabs and subway with in a couple blocks?

Actually NYC can have more walking than a lot of suburbs - typical suburban trip to the grocery is to pile in the car and drive a couple/few (or more) miles so the only walking is in the parking lot. NYC is quite walkable in many places, and there are small parks everywhere (plus some monster parks like Central Park and the NY Arboretum in the Bronx).

People in nyc walk more than most other places.

[youthathletics]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

And their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%

for whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.

Just thinking outside the box...wonder if NYC was so high with the elderly b/c they are also more sedentary, in the confines of the city. Elevators everywhere, grocery story within a couple blocks, cabs and subway with in a couple blocks?

Actually NYC can have more walking than a lot of suburbs - typical suburban trip to the grocery is to pile in the car and drive a couple/few (or more) miles so the only walking is in the parking lot. NYC is quite walkable in many places, and there are small parks everywhere (plus some monster parks like Central Park and the NY Arboretum in the Bronx).

Fair point. Then do you suspect a country like India faired so well with a much larger population with high density?

[RedFromMI]

Interesting analysis at the Worldometer site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

And their numbers are higher than I would have expected - around 1.4-2% for the death rate (10x swine flu). For under age 65 - a death rate of about .1%

for whatever reasons, it seems nyc has case fatality much worse than many other places in the country and the world.
a lot of them can be seen as maybe .02 to .04 net.
probably at least in part as a result of the surge there as well as nursing home mishaps.

Just thinking outside the box...wonder if NYC was so high with the elderly b/c they are also more sedentary, in the confines of the city. Elevators everywhere, grocery story within a couple blocks, cabs and subway with in a couple blocks?

Actually NYC can have more walking than a lot of suburbs - typical suburban trip to the grocery is to pile in the car and drive a couple/few (or more) miles so the only walking is in the parking lot. NYC is quite walkable in many places, and there are small parks everywhere (plus some monster parks like Central Park and the NY Arboretum in the Bronx).

Fair point. Then do you suspect a country like India faired so well with a much larger population with high density?

Hard to say about India - but it also could have to do with how much/little travel between regions - if low enough, you might keep it bottled up.

In some ways in the US hitting the NYC metro area so hard before the scope of the problem was realized may have gotten the rest of the country to put their SD skills into use earlier than the "official" shutdowns (like what happened for much of S. Florida) and keep the other parts of the US at relatively low levels.

Not sure what to make of it - there is a Reuters feed article where a Milan hospital head is claiming that at least in Italy the coronavirus is "weakening" - but there does not seem yet to be any real corroboration of that.

[Typical Lax Dad]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

I was wrong. I also predicted June deaths will be 50% of the May total and July will be 75% of the May total. We will see if I am close.

[RedFromMI]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

I was wrong. I also predicted June deaths will be 50% of the May total and July will be 75% of the May total. We will see if I am close.

covid19-projections.com have (based on machine learning):

6/1: 106K
7/1: 133K
8/1: 167K
9/1: 200K

May total about 41K, June 27K, July 34K, August 33K