The Nation's Financial Condition

[MDlaxfan76]

So you’re surmising that the delusional right winger extremists would possibly be doing EXACTLY what YOU and some lefties are doing right now?

And you don’t condone that behavior, I assume?



So where does that put you on the scale?

Where is afan when we need him to point out another hypocritical poster on fanlax?!

Kram, you're correct, of course, that the "left" are 'having a field day' criticizing Trump and the Trump GOP.

Seriously, though, can you imagine Obama having made the various statements, made the various decisions, that Trump has? Can you imagine Obama having politicized this pandemic to this degree?

Or would Obama have made a series of very different, far more cautionary statements, made decisions to engage the federal government earlier, and continued to be cautious throughout? Would he have spoken primarily in unifying terms?

Of course, the pandemic would have nevertheless happened and been deeply damaging, indeed 'mistakes' would still have been made, but quite definitely not to the same degree. So, there would have been ample fodder for critique, but would Obama have positioned this as 'nothing', going to go away 'magically', etc, etc, etc? Nope.

Obama would have done the exact same, if he had listened to Fauci, just like Trump did....as far back as late January. He would have also helped send PPE to China, just like this administration did.

I don't think you actually answered my question, just tried to deflect.

Sure, a mistake or two would have been made in late January...but February forward do you really think he'd not have had a very, very different public posture, and made very, very different decisions about engaging the federal government?

We can run the tape for you on Trump's various statements along the way...do you really think Obama would have been so egregiously buffoonish?

This is not to say Obama wouldn't have made his own mistakes, and he certainly would have received withering criticism from the right, but let's be honest about what we think really would have happened.

Not deflecting at all, just attempting to bring you back to earth. You have just openly written that "Obama would have also made mistakes along the way"....what if BHO presented this 180 from Trump and scared the hell out of everyone.....would that have made you happier? Wonder if there could have been more suicides b/c of that, maybe looting beyond control out of fear that food would not available. You or I simply do not know.

Hope all are safe and healthy in your family MD. Have a great day.

"openly written"???
Of course mistakes would have been made.

Yes, I'd have been enormously 'happier' if Obama had begun to scare everyone in February, shutdowns had begun in early March. We'd have still had infection spread, but much less. The shutdowns could have been eased more rationally, and sooner, with more people understanding the necessity for their own behavior to support that easing.

Of course, I had the added perspective of my son, who was in China working in January.

Total cost in lives and $ would have been a fraction of what it is going to be. Still bad, but nowhere's near as bad.

I'd have preferred a South Korea management level of this.

We would have not come anywhere near as close to health system collapse and the food system would have been better managed, not worse.

My concern right now is the bigger wave that may well come because too many Americans act like idiots going forward. I do worry about social panic at that stage.

Let's hope that doesn't happen.

Same to you and yours, stay safe and well. And have a great Memorial Day weekend.

[Farfromgeneva]

Hertz filed BK today (or yesterday technically). It was close but there was a difference of opinion between types of creditors if BK was best. There likely will be a flood of fleet cars into the market in 6-12mo making used cars cheaper for a couple of years (not a bad thing for consumers) but May interestingly test the ratings agencies models for appropriate credit enhancement/subordination a slice of bonds must have to carry a Aaa rating, currently around 30%. So basically Aaa is like the probability of the US defaulting-very low, should effectively never happen. These bonds have short 2-3yr average lives but pay nothing much due to low risk of default. Agencies say 30% of a buffer on losses on a pool of vehicles and you should never take a penny hit. Expected loss = Prob of Default (PD) x Loss Given Default (LGD). So if a pool of leases default and the cars are auctioned maybe you’d take a 40% hit (I’m not an auto abs guy so example) and say 15% of those default you’d have a 6% total loss. Because of the Hertz default it defaults the bonds in the fleet in this type of deal and they liquidate the fleet securing the bonds. So question is will they get 70 cents on the dollar back? If not the agencies were wrong though it would be fair to argue that a Aaa PD isn’t Zero and this might be the singular incidence expected in a couple decade history of this stuff.

But still interesting as customers and to see how this shakes out assuming it does liquidate (the Special Purpose Vehicle that technically owns the cars and is the debtor) and what that does to the auto market for a bit.

Tesla better get that battery cost down and keep Musk from jumping because cheap gas combined with cheaper cars and continued low interest rates is going to make cars cost competitive for a while longer.

Expected Loss....years ago I built my own model to price a portfolio of middle market leveraged loans that we needed to mark to mark. Then sold in bulk to Highland. We got just about where we had marked them. I spent two days at an LPC/S&P conference on CLO structures and built my own model just in case. I should have marketed it and sold it!

Merrill? How’d you like dealing with Jim Dondero and MAtt Siekielski? Tough crowd to negotiate with not just on terms but overall.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Hertz filed BK today (or yesterday technically). It was close but there was a difference of opinion between types of creditors if BK was best. There likely will be a flood of fleet cars into the market in 6-12mo making used cars cheaper for a couple of years (not a bad thing for consumers) but May interestingly test the ratings agencies models for appropriate credit enhancement/subordination a slice of bonds must have to carry a Aaa rating, currently around 30%. So basically Aaa is like the probability of the US defaulting-very low, should effectively never happen. These bonds have short 2-3yr average lives but pay nothing much due to low risk of default. Agencies say 30% of a buffer on losses on a pool of vehicles and you should never take a penny hit. Expected loss = Prob of Default (PD) x Loss Given Default (LGD). So if a pool of leases default and the cars are auctioned maybe you’d take a 40% hit (I’m not an auto abs guy so example) and say 15% of those default you’d have a 6% total loss. Because of the Hertz default it defaults the bonds in the fleet in this type of deal and they liquidate the fleet securing the bonds. So question is will they get 70 cents on the dollar back? If not the agencies were wrong though it would be fair to argue that a Aaa PD isn’t Zero and this might be the singular incidence expected in a couple decade history of this stuff.

But still interesting as customers and to see how this shakes out assuming it does liquidate (the Special Purpose Vehicle that technically owns the cars and is the debtor) and what that does to the auto market for a bit.

Tesla better get that battery cost down and keep Musk from jumping because cheap gas combined with cheaper cars and continued low interest rates is going to make cars cost competitive for a while longer.

Expected Loss....years ago I built my own model to price a portfolio of middle market leveraged loans that we needed to mark to mark. Then sold in bulk to Highland. We got just about where we had marked them. I spent two days at an LPC/S&P conference on CLO structures and built my own model just in case. I should have marketed it and sold it!

Merrill? How’d you like dealing with Jim Dondero and MAtt Siekielski? Tough crowd to negotiate with not just on terms but overall.

Man that’s a name from the past. I did a bunch of the leg work on the pricing. I didn’t handle the deal. That was a long tine ago. That deal died and revived several times. I still may have the tombstone in a box in my garage somewhere. It was literally a tombstone for our leveraged lending shop.

[Peter Brown]

Democratic blue states will be decimated by this crisis; all it took was a non-crisis crisis to expose their economies for what they are, anti-business.

And before you yahoo's claim I want these states to fail, let me say I want them to fail so they can thrive.

You've been voting against your interests for so long and the media has been spoon-feeding you lies as long, you now think being in bed with socialists is perfectly fine.

Californian will fall after Illinois, CT, NJ, and NY, but it is coming rest assured. What can not continue forever, won't.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/us/c ... onomy.html

What you will now do is open up voting to every dead person ever, make fraudulent voting a wrist slap penalty, and allow illegal immigrants to determine the course of your state/country.

[Brooklyn]

illegal immigrants

laughable



It was open borders Republicans Reagan and Bush II who allowed all those illegals to enter and offered them blanket amnesty. Then, they (like tRUMP) refused to prosecute capitalists who hired them. Meanwhile, right wingers labelled Obama as the deporter-in-chief.

[Peter Brown]

Democratic blue states will be decimated by this crisis; all it took was a non-crisis crisis to expose their economies for what they are, anti-business.

And before you yahoo's claim I want these states to fail, let me say I want them to fail so they can thrive.

You've been voting against your interests for so long and the media has been spoon-feeding you lies as long, you now think being in bed with socialists is perfectly fine.

Californian will fall after Illinois, CT, NJ, and NY, but it is coming rest assured. What can not continue forever, won't.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/us/c ... onomy.html

What you will now do is open up voting to every dead person ever, make fraudulent voting a wrist slap penalty, and allow illegal immigrants to determine the course of your state/country.

There goes another California company leaving for more hospitable pastures. This time, it looks like Colorado! Good job, a fan.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/26/palantir- ... eaving-ca/

Democratic abusive states will soon fold into bankruptcy...the end is near which is great news if you yearn to be free again. Get out from under the dark weight of regulatory, cultural, family, and economic homicide. Leave now!

[a fan]

You don't see the willful disconnect here, and that these supposedly brilliant CEO's don't understand that it's their own company that's the "problem" in California? Who does this Karp guy think he's describing in the boldest part below?

“I’ve been distanced [from Silicon Valley] for the last 15 years. And so I’m used to being social distanced in the Valley. And now social distancing has become a way of life,” Karp continued.

Who is it that Karp think "lives in Silicon Valley"? Or more directly, who does he think can possibly afford to live there? In other words, OBVIOUSLY, it's the employees from Palantir and Tesla et. al. that are voting for these liberal laws and regulations.

So when these companies move to TX or CO, and their employees come with them, guess what's going to happen to those states?

Take a wild guess, Pete.

[Peter Brown]

You don't see the willful disconnect here, and that these supposedly brilliant CEO's don't understand that it's their own company that's the "problem" in California? Who does this Karp guy think he's describing in the boldest part below?

“I’ve been distanced [from Silicon Valley] for the last 15 years. And so I’m used to being social distanced in the Valley. And now social distancing has become a way of life,” Karp continued.

Who is it that Karp think "lives in Silicon Valley"? Or more directly, who does he think can possibly afford to live there? In other words, OBVIOUSLY, it's the employees from Palantir and Tesla et. al. that are voting for these liberal laws and regulations.

So when these companies move to TX or CO, and their employees come with them, guess what's going to happen to those states?

Take a wild guess, Pete.

Biggest problem we have in Florida BY FAR is asking the libs to park their imbecilic lib policies at the border. Trust me, I get it.

[a fan]

Well, if you right wing nutjobs could invent something useful in the tech arena, or learn how to run a freaking business, or get some tech related sellable skills, you wouldn't have that problem, now would ya? (kidding, if that wasn't obvious)

[CU88]

You don't see the willful disconnect here, and that these supposedly brilliant CEO's don't understand that it's their own company that's the "problem" in California? Who does this Karp guy think he's describing in the boldest part below?

“I’ve been distanced [from Silicon Valley] for the last 15 years. And so I’m used to being social distanced in the Valley. And now social distancing has become a way of life,” Karp continued.

Who is it that Karp think "lives in Silicon Valley"? Or more directly, who does he think can possibly afford to live there? In other words, OBVIOUSLY, it's the employees from Palantir and Tesla et. al. that are voting for these liberal laws and regulations.

So when these companies move to TX or CO, and their employees come with them, guess what's going to happen to those states?

Take a wild guess, Pete.

Biggest problem we have in Florida BY FAR is asking the libs to park their imbecilic lib policies at the border. Trust me, I get it.

Not to speak for A Fan, but I think that you missed his point; those liberal highly educated skilled workers are NOT going to move to Colorado. No offense to A Fan.

This conversation has occurred multiple times on these boards, high tech jobs and employees always cluster. Why did Amazon HQ2 land in Crystal City, VA; one of the most expensive places to live in the USA; instead of Podunk, Wyoming? Was it you who posted links of a resort in Jackson Hole where CEO's were buying vacation homes and declared that the jobs were all going there because of the low cost of living and freedom of Big Gov??? Amazon handed there because of the dynamic job market and available educated "human capital stock".

[Peter Brown]

You don't see the willful disconnect here, and that these supposedly brilliant CEO's don't understand that it's their own company that's the "problem" in California? Who does this Karp guy think he's describing in the boldest part below?

“I’ve been distanced [from Silicon Valley] for the last 15 years. And so I’m used to being social distanced in the Valley. And now social distancing has become a way of life,” Karp continued.

Who is it that Karp think "lives in Silicon Valley"? Or more directly, who does he think can possibly afford to live there? In other words, OBVIOUSLY, it's the employees from Palantir and Tesla et. al. that are voting for these liberal laws and regulations.

So when these companies move to TX or CO, and their employees come with them, guess what's going to happen to those states?

Take a wild guess, Pete.

Biggest problem we have in Florida BY FAR is asking the libs to park their imbecilic lib policies at the border. Trust me, I get it.

Not to speak for A Fan, but I think that you missed his point; those liberal highly educated skilled workers are NOT going to move to Colorado. No offense to A Fan.

This conversation has occurred multiple times on these boards, high tech jobs and employees always cluster. Why did Amazon HQ2 land in Crystal City, VA; one of the most expensive places to live in the USA; instead of Podunk, Wyoming? Was it you who posted links of a resort in Jackson Hole where CEO's were buying vacation homes and declared that the jobs were all going there because of the low cost of living and freedom of Big Gov??? Amazon handed there because of the dynamic job market and available educated "human capital stock".

I don't disagree that many companies with high human capital needs end up in large metropolitan markets.

I'd also say that the vast majority of people in life are sheep, following whatever way the big dog forces them to run. For tech employees, many lower-rung employees are dumb sheep (not uneducated, but dumb street smarts), uttering liberal platitudes because that's what they think their next-rung bosses want them to say. Then they all end up in the echo chamber of uselessness, a la DC< as wasteful a city of 'education' as this world has ever seen.

Meanwhile, visionaries and founders are out there every day making the sun shine in spite of the liberal desire to crush human ingenuity and spirit. As long as we stay free just enough, Democrats can not lay waste to America; capitalism always wins.

[ardilla secreta]

Recently came across a box that once belonged to my mom.it contained two War Ration books. They were issued by the Office of Price Administration within the Office of Emergency Management.

Book One was issued 5/7/42 to my mom in lieu of her mother who never had a drivers license during her lifetime. Book Two didn’t have any date of issuance. Neither book was completely used. On the back, the last instruction states, “If you don’t need it, DON’T BUY IT.”

I can’t even imagine forcing Americans to ration today. There would be massive armed protests undoubtedly.

[a fan]

Not to speak for A Fan, but I think that you missed his point; those liberal highly educated skilled workers are NOT going to move to Colorado. No offense to A Fan..

None taken. i should have clarified my point.

When a tech firm moves, it's going to take SOME of its employees with them. And then when the are in their new location, like Colorado, they'll attract like minded people. Young liberals.

[a fan]

Meanwhile, visionaries and founders are out there every day making the sun shine in spite of the liberal desire to crush human ingenuity and spirit. As long as we stay free just enough, Democrats can not lay waste to America; capitalism always wins.

Not even you believe this. Nice try, though.

[cradleandshoot]

Not to speak for A Fan, but I think that you missed his point; those liberal highly educated skilled workers are NOT going to move to Colorado. No offense to A Fan..

None taken. i should have clarified my point.

When a tech firm moves, it's going to take SOME of its employees with them. And then when the are in their new location, like Colorado, they'll attract like minded people. Young liberals.

If Colorado needs more young liberals I think NYS has a few extra we can send your way. They probably come already knowing how to ski.

[Farfromgeneva]

Palantir is backed by Peter Thiel. Thiel is a very smart guy, and former PayPal founding partner w Musk many moons ago. He’s also the guy who backed Hulk Hogan’s lawsuit that ended Gawker (republicans are supposed to be for limited litigation, in fact the Alex Jones gross out crowd should’ve supported the Gawker side of the suit that they lost in court because it would’ve backed their claim to be journalists and protected). The guy is brilliant but also been swinging from Trumps nuts for a while, presumably because he figured he can stroke his way into a better regulatory/business position. Point being though is that this company and its ethical and philosophical positions are driven from Thiel so this isn’t anything that should ever be surprising.

Palantir is about as deep state as deep state gets so it should be not allowed through the border at Texas in theory. Absolutely incongruous with anything actual real to trump or his acolytes. It’s both cutting edge, dangerous and antithetical to any basic belief/characteristic/ethos of the concept of the American experiment as its IP is not public, transparent or open but rather controlled by the highest bidder.

Still don’t understand why someone would use the N.Y. Post for anything other than high level shi*%er reading material. That’s the bat signal in NY bank/broker dealer world-it you see a dude walking down exterior corridor of cube farm/desks with a N.Y. Post folded under wing you know that person will be out of pocket for 15-25 min doing some meditating on the throne. I.e. it’s less credible than the national enquirer.

[Farfromgeneva]

Not to speak for A Fan, but I think that you missed his point; those liberal highly educated skilled workers are NOT going to move to Colorado. No offense to A Fan..

None taken. i should have clarified my point.

When a tech firm moves, it's going to take SOME of its employees with them. And then when the are in their new location, like Colorado, they'll attract like minded people. Young liberals.

Provo UT had a bit of a burgeoning tech thing going on into last crisis, one of the bigger software companies was there around privacy. Not sure if it’s still bumping but the Rocky Mountains have a lot going for it. Generally moderate climates year round, beautiful scenery, easy traffic if weak public transportation, modest home prices, etc. contrary to what some people suggest, northeastern all don’t like mosquito filled,humid,hot as balls May-Sept in Ga/FL/Carolinas/AL and want to avoid wretched -15 to -20 wind chill driven six month winters but not in trade it for that heat and air conditioning fueled living.

Have to check but believe the demographics has a decent level of post secondary education levels. I would’ve almost expected more relocation by now. Nashville has been a recipient. It is a big deal that white shoe old line Alliance Bernstein moved its HQ from NYC to Nashville a year or two ago.

[Peter Brown]

Palantir is backed by Peter Thiel. Thiel is a very smart guy, and former PayPal founding partner w Musk many moons ago. He’s also the guy who backed Hulk Hogan’s lawsuit that ended Gawker (republicans are supposed to be for limited litigation, in fact the Alex Jones gross out crowd should’ve supported the Gawker side of the suit that they lost in court because it would’ve backed their claim to be journalists and protected). The guy is brilliant but also been swinging from Trumps nuts for a while, presumably because he figured he can stroke his way into a better regulatory/business position. Point being though is that this company and its ethical and philosophical positions are driven from Thiel so this isn’t anything that should ever be surprising.

Palantir is about as deep state as deep state gets so it should be not allowed through the border at Texas in theory. Absolutely incongruous with anything actual real to trump or his acolytes. It’s both cutting edge, dangerous and antithetical to any basic belief/characteristic/ethos of the concept of the American experiment as its IP is not public, transparent or open but rather controlled by the highest bidder.

Still don’t understand why someone would use the N.Y. Post for anything other than high level shi*%er reading material. That’s the bat signal in NY bank/broker dealer world-it you see a dude walking down exterior corridor of cube farm/desks with a N.Y. Post folded under wing you know that person will be out of pocket for 15-25 min doing some meditating on the throne. I.e. it’s less credible than the national enquirer.

Presumably we should be reading the NY Times which blindly carried the Russia collusion hoax for 3 years with no self-reflection afterwards? lol Ironically, Palantir told several congresspeople that the Russia collusion hoax was just that, a hoax. But narrative won the day for the Dems and media, ya know, the 'respectable' media that pushed it! Natasha Bertrand is still looking for her reputation...

Anyway, just ftr, I'm an indirect investor in Palantir via an LA-based investment manager; Palantir has over 30 institutional investors. I don't think Thiel owns any more than 10% today which is still the largest individual shareholder (by maybe 1 one 2 points above Karp), but one thing obvious is Alex Karp doesn't take direction nor dictation from Thiel and runs the show.

Also, the outside investors are not shrinking violets and have significant governance oversight and rights.

If Alex says California sucks, maybe California sucks for the reasons he stipulates. If he, Musk, and Thiel agree on something, that's likely because they are smart and honest, unlike many of their peers in California.

[Farfromgeneva]

Did I say read the N.Y. Times? No. A presumption such as that would be obtuse at best and ignore that the NY Post is a joke, entertaining as anything, but a joke still. It’s incredible to use it for any serious discourse. And that’s statement does not say anything about other periodicals so no point in attempting to deflect away from the fact that it’s not a worthy source of information except on page 6 content and how big of a douche some yankee or knick is this week.

My understanding by folks close is that thiel is very much in control of the business direction. Sorry to hear your fund investment of inherited money must’ve taken a massive hit last year when they bailed on an IPO and probably is partly reason for the move. Without the pop of public dumb cheap money they need to get operating expenses down a lot and no denying Texas is going to be cheaper than cali assuming the talent could all be retained. I don’t care personally, my sister has been brainwashed over the past near 30yrs in the Bay Area and it’s total mind control stuff out there. It’s also a place where almost everyone is pleasant, helpful, cares about each other and is nicer than like 90% of the country. To some degree the state and the area is the height of decadence like pre revolution France. Of course that metaphor doesn’t shine a positive light on the folks trying to destroy our democracy either.

[CU77]

There goes another California company leaving for more hospitable pastures. This time, it looks like Colorado! Good job, a fan.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/26/palantir- ... eaving-ca/

This is just Karp blowing smoke up your ash PB. Palantir is not actually going anywhere.

And why is your investment manager in LA (assuming that means Los Angeles and not Louisiana)? Can't he move out of that hellhole?