Johns Hopkins 2021

[HopFan16]

I'm not really sure what I prefer. Not sure why, I think it's because it just feels flat out unfair to the kids who've been recruited and chose to come to Hop initially, but I just don't really like the idea of transfer goalies. Would Kirson be an improvement for next year? Probably (and maybe that should be my answer). But I think I'm willing to take a chance on the guys we have from a culture/cohesion standpoint, knowing that (1) next year will be a bit of a transition year anyway and (2) the Greek God of Goalies will be arriving the following year.

Taking in transfers at any position is always a delicate dance with team culture. But my philosophy is if you think the guy would be a good fit in the locker room and actually addresses a massive team need (goalie more than qualifies), you explore the option. The fact that both coaching staffs have been interested in taking in a goalie should probably tell you something. If a guy saved at 60% last year and wants to come to Hopkins and you have a reasonable sense that he will not create any issues academically or otherwise, it's time to roll out the red carpet IMO. You take the plunge for a year or two and hopefully by then he's formed a nice bridge to the hot recruit.

[Laxsmitty]

I would agree but we are not the coaches. Gainey has played well in the scrimmages when given a chance and was excellent with clears this past fall. Marcille was adjusting to the new tempo and speed which I think happens with any freshmen college goalie. Jacob played well against ND and then was pulled quickly which was to bad for he should have been given at least the 1H. All three came in with strong credentials. Maybe the Greek God of Goalies goes somewhere else. Until they sign their NLI nothing is certain. Would Kirson have 1 or 2 years of eligibility?

[HopFan16]

I would agree but we are not the coaches. Gainey has played well in the scrimmages when given a chance and was excellent with clears this past fall. Marcille was adjusting to the new tempo and speed which I think happens with any freshmen college goalie. Jacob played well against ND and then was pulled quickly which was to bad for he should have been given at least the 1H. All three came in with strong credentials. Maybe the Greek God of Goalies goes somewhere else. Until they sign their NLI nothing is certain. Would Kirson have 1 or 2 years of eligibility?

Let's look at what we've actually got:

Darby - he is what he is by now
Giacalone - 5th year senior, don't know for sure he'll even be back next year
Gainey - in the portal, whatever PM is selling he's apparently not buying
Marcille - unknown
DiMarsico - unknown

There is a distinct possibility that without a transfer, the goalie depth chart entering the fall is the 45% incumbent backed up by two guys who have never stepped foot on a D1 field. That's not a situation I will personally feel good about and to be honest, the team might not feel good about it either. You do what's best for the program as a whole. Marcille still has 4 years of eligibility since this season didn't technically count. Even if a transfer came in for two seasons, Marcille would still have two years left to battle it out for the role. Same goes for DiMarsico. Demopolous would have at the very least 3 years if he maintains his commitment and arrives on campus next fall. That all strikes me as pretty fair for everyone involved. There can only be one goalie and no one is guaranteed a 4-year role.

For the record, I'm pretty high on both Marcille and DiMarsico, and I was high on Gainey too before he entered the transfer portal. But we're not just talking about adding some random goalie for the sake of it. We're talking about the idea of bringing in a PROVEN, successful player who would make the team better. I mean, it's what they did with Fernandez. We needed a solid wing player who was good off the ground, and they got one. If a similar opportunity in the goal presents itself to this new staff I would hope they seriously consider it.

[nyjay]

I guess if you're going to take a transfer goalie, the best time to do it is with a new staff coming in as well. Per IL, re Kirson's eligibility:

Kirson started 25 games in his Buckeye career and was playing his best ball during his time in Columbus this season, posting a 58.4% save percentage in Ohio State’s first seven games this season, making 94 stops. A redshirt junior, he could have two years of eligibility at his new destination.

Would love to see some advanced stats on lax goalie play to figure out more about what's been going on with JHU goalies over the last 5-6 years. Would also show which goalies are inherently good vs. which goalies are playing behind good defenses/systems and/or just getting lucky. Hockey has a stat called "expected goals saved" and soccer has "goals saved above average", which are intended to isolate goalie play. Would be very curious what that kind of thing would show about Hop and frankly lax goalie play as a whole.

[DocBarrister]

That said, one of their defensemen, Colin Kasner, had 12 CT in 5 games—good for 8th in the country in caused turnovers per game. Hopkins has not had a player SNIFF the top 10 in that statistic in quite some time.

It looks like UMBC ranked #23 in CTs in 2020 at 8.6 a game while Hop ranked #73 at 4.3 CTs a game.
Different strengths of schedule but also different levels of talent on the field.
UMBC was twice as effective as JHU in this category. Definitely looks more aggressive to me.

Thanks, “16” and “A”. I will take 8.6 CTs/game any day!

DocBarrister

Check out Youtube and there is 2019 UMBC vs Marist full game

Thanks!

DocBarrister

[Sagittarius A*]

I guess if you're going to take a transfer goalie, the best time to do it is with a new staff coming in as well. Per IL, re Kirson's eligibility:

Kirson started 25 games in his Buckeye career and was playing his best ball during his time in Columbus this season, posting a 58.4% save percentage in Ohio State’s first seven games this season, making 94 stops. A redshirt junior, he could have two years of eligibility at his new destination.

Would love to see some advanced stats on lax goalie play to figure out more about what's been going on with JHU goalies over the last 5-6 years. Would also show which goalies are inherently good vs. which goalies are playing behind good defenses/systems and/or just getting lucky. Hockey has a stat called "expected goals saved" and soccer has "goals saved above average", which are intended to isolate goalie play. Would be very curious what that kind of thing would show about Hop and frankly lax goalie play as a whole.

I think when every time and room shot from range falls and when your starting goalie makes 2 saves or 0 saves in a big game, you have a problem between the pipes. I expect to see line up changes next fall. If there isn't a new face in goal, my confidence in this staff would take a nose dive.
It would be like starting off on the wrong foot.

[nyjay]

That's clearly what the eye test shows. Wonder if the data would be different, probably not, but would still be interesting to see across all of DI.

Yes, agree that seeing the incumbent in goal would be very disconcerting - even though I do believe some of his struggles were on the old staff rather than on him personally. If Marcille or DiMarsico were to win the job, though, I'd be fine with that and be patient while they develop in game situations.

[Big Dog]

I would agree but we are not the coaches. Gainey has played well in the scrimmages when given a chance and was excellent with clears this past fall. Marcille was adjusting to the new tempo and speed which I think happens with any freshmen college goalie. Jacob played well against ND and then was pulled quickly which was to bad for he should have been given at least the 1H. All three came in with strong credentials. Maybe the Greek God of Goalies goes somewhere else. Until they sign their NLI nothing is certain. Would Kirson have 1 or 2 years of eligibility?

Let's look at what we've actually got:

Darby - he is what he is by now
Giacalone - 5th year senior, don't know for sure he'll even be back next year
Gainey - in the portal, whatever PM is selling he's apparently not buying
Marcille - unknown
DiMarsico - unknown

There is a distinct possibility that without a transfer, the goalie depth chart entering the fall is the 45% incumbent backed up by two guys who have never stepped foot on a D1 field.

One of the reasons that I've never bought into the 'most difficult schedule' idea is that: 1) the starters have to play every game and for the full game; 2) starters get beat-up (and injured0, particularly FOGO, with no time to recover; 3) backups rarely get any playing time against d1 competition. If we tossed in a cupcake or two, other guys could get a chance while the starters can rest/heal. (Of course, Petro seemed to stick with his upperclassmen regardless of the score.)

[MDlaxfan76]

That's clearly what the eye test shows. Wonder if the data would be different, probably not, but would still be interesting to see across all of DI.

Yes, agree that seeing the incumbent in goal would be very disconcerting - even though I do believe some of his struggles were on the old staff rather than on him personally. If Marcille or DiMarsico were to win the job, though, I'd be fine with that and be patient while they develop in game situations.

It would indeed be an interesting analysis, if the right metrics were incorporated.

[nyjay]

So timely discussion today, gents. Per Jast, Kirson is on his way to Homewood (pending admission).

[Laxsmitty]

Chris Jastrzembski reporting that Kirson going to Hop pending admissions. Feel bad for the goalies on the roster who never got a chance to show what they can do and will now likely be backing up Kirson for next few years. I wonder who will be the back-up? Jacob or Darby? Gainey if he returns? Marcille? I guess that is the fight when lax begins is for #2 now. No way you are bringing him in to not be the starter for next few years short of injury or terrible play.

[HopFan16]

Chris Jastrzembski reporting that Kirson going to Hop pending admissions. Feel bad for the goalies on the roster who never got a chance to show what they can do and will now likely be backing up Kirson for next few years.

At the risk of sounding callous—that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Ideally we'd already have a junior or senior incumbent to rely on and the two underclassmen wouldn't be playing for a year or two anyway. Marcille for all intents and purposes will be a redshirt freshman in 2021, so he and DiMarsico will still have plenty of opportunity to win minutes at some point.

I think this is fantastic news. We needed a steady goalie, and we got one. Kirson has two and a half years of solid starting experience for a major program, was in the vicinity of 60% this year and had been improving each year since he took over as the starter midway through the 2018 season. Already knows the Big Ten shooters' tendencies—especially those of his former teammates in Columbus. Is familiar with Koesterer from the recruiting process. Reminder, he didn't just come out of nowhere: He was the #60 recruit in his class out of the Hill Academy.

The Jays got better today. There's a buzz around this team and guys out there are buying what the new staff is selling. Time to buy in.

[DocBarrister]

Chris Jastrzembski reporting that Kirson going to Hop pending admissions. Feel bad for the goalies on the roster who never got a chance to show what they can do and will now likely be backing up Kirson for next few years.

At the risk of sounding callous—that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Ideally we'd already have a junior or senior incumbent to rely on and the two underclassmen wouldn't be playing for a year or two anyway. Marcille for all intents and purposes will be a redshirt freshman in 2021, so he and DiMarsico will still have plenty of opportunity to win minutes at some point.

I think this is fantastic news. We needed a steady goalie, and we got one. Kirson has two and a half years of solid starting experience for a major program, was in the vicinity of 60% this year and had been improving each year since he took over as the starter midway through the 2018 season. Already knows the Big Ten shooters' tendencies—especially those of his former teammates in Columbus. Is familiar with Koesterer from the recruiting process. Reminder, he didn't just come out of nowhere: He was the #60 recruit in his class out of the Hill Academy.

The Jays got better today. There's a buzz around this team and guys out there are buying what the new staff is selling. Time to buy in.

I agree. This is a great addition to the Hopkins roster. I doubt Kirson was offered any guarantee regarding playing time, but the wink and subtle nod were probably there.

With Fernandez and Kirson, I think Coach Milliman and his crew have done a stellar job with respect to transfers. Got exactly what we needed while still settling in to the job. Truly remarkable performance to date by Coach Milliman.

Can’t wait until the 2021 season (and yes, I do believe there will be one).

DocBarrister

[RumorMill]

"pending admission"... but agree, Kirson would be the perceived starter. However, if I'm one of the current goalies I'm looking at this situation as the perfect opportunity to prove myself and earn the spot or at least some playing time. From what I've read, heard and am reading on this board, the new coaching staff is going to give most players an equal opportunity to come in and earn their spot... not too many favorites or existing politics. Can't really ask for much more than that. If you're good enough, you'll play... At this level, if there isn't someone trying to take your spot, the team probably won't be that competitive overall. IMO

[Jaysjay88]

I have a question for some of you medical types on this thread. I am not a doctor, MPH or Epidemiologist, so I need some help understanding the odds of having a lax season next spring. I think there are two components. 1. what is the probability there will be a proven vaccine and made in quantity to have mass vaccinations by February of next year? 2. If no vaccine, what is the likelihood that a contact sport like lax would be played. Even with sufficient testing and contact tracing, it seems that without a vaccine, social distancing would dictate perhaps no contact sports. Tennis and Fencing, yes. Lax, no. Is that how you med heads view it or am I missing something?

[DocBarrister]

I have a question for some of you medical types on this thread. I am not a doctor, MPH or Epidemiologist, so I need some help understanding the odds of having a lax season next spring. I think there are two components. 1. what is the probability there will be a proven vaccine and made in quantity to have mass vaccinations by February of next year? 2. If no vaccine, what is the likelihood that a contact sport like lax would be played. Even with sufficient testing and contact tracing, it seems that without a vaccine, social distancing would dictate perhaps no contact sports. Tennis and Fencing, yes. Lax, no. Is that how you med heads view it or am I missing something?

1. Odds of having a vaccine proven through clinical trials to be safe and effective by February 2021? Possible, but definitely much less than 50/50. Having enough vaccine to meet need (in U.S. and world) by February 2021? Highly unlikely, with odds very small. Plus, getting people vaccinated and developing adequate immunity is a process that will almost certainly require more than a year after the vaccine is approved.

2. Will depend on testing, testing, testing. It is very, very possible that even a limited lacrosse schedule will be disrupted by forced cancellations or rescheduled games if a player tests positive. It’s probably going to be a mess in 2021. NCAA and member schools will need a comprehensive testing program in place, even if a vaccine becomes available. FBS football will probably lead the way, and it could get very expensive for some lacrosse teams to follow the model. Can easily imagine lacrosse programs cancelling the 2021 season while not terminating the program entirely.

DocBarrister

[Bluejayfan2]

I'm not really sure what I prefer. Not sure why, I think it's because it just feels flat out unfair to the kids who've been recruited and chose to come to Hop initially, but I just don't really like the idea of transfer goalies. Would Kirson be an improvement for next year? Probably (and maybe that should be my answer). But I think I'm willing to take a chance on the guys we have from a culture/cohesion standpoint, knowing that (1) next year will be a bit of a transition year anyway and (2) the Greek God of Goalies will be arriving the following year.

Taking in transfers at any position is always a delicate dance with team culture. But my philosophy is if you think the guy would be a good fit in the locker room and actually addresses a massive team need (goalie more than qualifies), you explore the option. The fact that both coaching staffs have been interested in taking in a goalie should probably tell you something. If a guy saved at 60% last year and wants to come to Hopkins and you have a reasonable sense that he will not create any issues academically or otherwise, it's time to roll out the red carpet IMO. You take the plunge for a year or two and hopefully by then he's formed a nice bridge to the hot recruit.

Life lessons for D1 players everywhere in 2021 but especially at Hop. Leadership changes and so does the organizational direction and culture sometimes. As a contributor , You embrace it, You suck it up, or you move on! For me , doesn’t matter what the locker room was Last year but what it can be under CEO Milliman. No affront to Petro cause he is the guy even if the situation dictated it was time to move on. Hopkins Lax should have a Petro statue some day. However like Franklin at PSU, the Milliman era is replacing a legend. I don’t count O’Brian as he was a quick fix and gone Let’s see if PM can create a culture that gets us to regular appearances in Memorial weekend

[nyjay]

Mixed feelings about goalie transfers aside, mighty positive news. This staff can definitely recruit. While Kirson is from Mass, wonder if the Canadian connection at Hill had anything to do with this. Pulling kids regularly from Hill (including ones not named Marr) would be big. Feeling pretty good about this team for next year:

G - Kirson
D - Colwell, Reinson, Smith
LSM - Fernandez
SSDM - Lilly or Glassmeyer (?)
M1 - Zinn, Degnon, Grimes
A - Epstein, Williams, Murphy

[DocBarrister]

Mixed feelings about goalie transfers aside, mighty positive news. This staff can definitely recruit. While Kirson is from Mass, wonder if the Canadian connection at Hill had anything to do with this. Pulling kids regularly from Hill (including ones not named Marr) would be big. Feeling pretty good about this team for next year:

G - Kirson
D - Colwell, Reinson, Smith
LSM - Fernandez
SSDM - Lilly or Glassmeyer (?)
M1 - Zinn, Degnon, Grimes
A - Epstein, Williams, Murphy

Do Kirson and Fernandez both have two years of eligibility remaining?

DocBarrister

[wgdsr]

Chris Jastrzembski reporting that Kirson going to Hop pending admissions. Feel bad for the goalies on the roster who never got a chance to show what they can do and will now likely be backing up Kirson for next few years. I wonder who will be the back-up? Jacob or Darby? Gainey if he returns? Marcille? I guess that is the fight when lax begins is for #2 now. No way you are bringing him in to not be the starter for next few years short of injury or terrible play.

yeah, that's not how it works. they will have plenty of opportunity to be the guy. and the crease is 6' away. no excuse not to try and get better in the meantime.