All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[RedFromMI]

The way you use the numbers has nothing to do with deaths per million. I'm not sure know how to explain it more simply, but I'll try. if you reduce 328 million by a factor of 328 to get it down to one million, you have to reduce the 87,000 by a factor of 328 to find the number per million. Reducing by a factor of 328 requires dividing by 328. 87000 divided by 328 equals 257.

painful isn't it?

It appears a waste of time anyway. The death totals are inflated and the number infected is exponentially greater.

Epidemiologist 6ft, who can't do simple math, speaks...

There you are living in a vacuum again.

The death totals are not inflated - they are lower than reality. If you disagree with that statement you disagree with all the experts.

The statement that the number infected is exponentially greater is pretty inexact, but the general usage of that phrase would mean much larger. False.

The place in the US with the highest infection rate is NYC - with somewhere just over 20% of the population infected. (And given the death tolls including an estimate of the excess deaths you get a death rate of around .9%. Probably is a bit lower than that but not near the .1% associated with a typical flu season.)

Most parts of the US the infection rate is MUCH lower. For Florida, the estimated infection rate is about 1.3%. For South Carolina, where I live, it is about 1.1%. For Michigan (another state with a lot of early cases) it is about 5.9%.

[a fan]

American culture has handled a pandemic.

Protesters, and more than a few posters here would vehemently disagree with this view.

We're changing quite markedly as we post here. Curbside pickup, delivery becoming the norm. People working from home, entirely. Businesses choosing to shutter and limit servfices to help slow the spread. Lots of people wearing masks. 2 months in seclusion for most- and counting!

Never would have believed those changes occurred 4 months ago.

Without trying to be too cold-hearted, unfortunately, I'm sure health professions get the flu each year, and some may die due to stubbornness too.I'ts a shame, really. but I chose the job field I'm in. As did you, afan. We all knew the risks associated.

You're not being cold hearted. Again, there is no right answer as to how and when to reopen.

[Brooklyn]

get it to x wrote
Peter Brown wrote

"binary choice"

Both called this liberal or progressive notwithstanding their delusional righties who said "you're either with us or against us" and Dump's recent demand that certain states be "liberated" and that schools/businesses must be opened despite the majority's call for restraint in this regard. We all know this is just their usual projections since their side does it more than anyone else and they believe that they can deflect blame upon them by attributing all such faults to others. Of course, we know that the only ones being fooled by all such inane attributions and projections are themselves.

[Brooklyn]

Fearless Leader Donny Dump:

what's up with the wood on the wall? Was this picture taken at an abandoned home? The wood paneling is rotting.......BAD

Hey nice catch - yes, it is an aesthetic design calculated to reflect social fragmentation, dissipation, degeneration, and all manner of negativity as reflected by the thoughtless moron-in-chief.

[kramerica.inc]

American culture has handled a pandemic.

Protesters, and more than a few posters here would vehemently disagree with this view.

We're changing quite markedly as we post here. Curbside pickup, delivery becoming the norm. People working from home, entirely. Businesses choosing to shutter and limit servfices to help slow the spread. Lots of people wearing masks. 2 months in seclusion for most- and counting!

Never would have believed those changes occurred 4 months ago.

Without trying to be too cold-hearted, unfortunately, I'm sure health professions get the flu each year, and some may die due to stubbornness too.I'ts a shame, really. but I chose the job field I'm in. As did you, afan. We all knew the risks associated.

You're not being cold hearted. Again, there is no right answer as to how and when to reopen.

I know this sounds simple, but I think people will choose themselves. They will choose to come out of seclusion as the govs allow, and how big the pull is from our desire to enjoy the weather, events, surroundings and normalcy. Hogan lifted some restrictions here in MD (starting in 3 hours). If people enjoy the weather this weekend in MD, and don't come down with Corona, they will have short memories. You'll be hard pressed to get people to stay quarantined for the the rest of the summer unless there's a major outbreak that people see at least anecdotally.

This might be good for the Dems, if another wave hits in the fall before election day.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Fearless Leader Donny Dump:

what's up with the wood on the wall? Was this picture taken at an abandoned home? The wood paneling is rotting.......BAD

No comment on the essence of the photo?

# Not Criticizing Trump is A Choice

[wgdsr]

The way you use the numbers has nothing to do with deaths per million. I'm not sure know how to explain it more simply, but I'll try. if you reduce 328 million by a factor of 328 to get it down to one million, you have to reduce the 87,000 by a factor of 328 to find the number per million. Reducing by a factor of 328 requires dividing by 328. 87000 divided by 328 equals 257.

painful isn't it?

It appears a waste of time anyway. The death totals are inflated and the number infected is exponentially greater.

Epidemiologist 6ft, who can't do simple math, speaks...

There you are living in a vacuum again.

The death totals are not inflated - they are lower than reality. If you disagree with that statement you disagree with all the experts.

The statement that the number infected is exponentially greater is pretty inexact, but the general usage of that phrase would mean much larger. False.

The place in the US with the highest infection rate is NYC - with somewhere just over 20% of the population infected. (And given the death tolls including an estimate of the excess deaths you get a death rate of around .9%. Probably is a bit lower than that but not near the .1% associated with a typical flu season.)

Most parts of the US the infection rate is MUCH lower. For Florida, the estimated infection rate is about 1.3%. For South Carolina, where I live, it is about 1.1%. For Michigan (another state with a lot of early cases) it is about 5.9%.

in almost all cases of epidemics that i've seen, estimates do get marked up after the fact. how they do that, imprecise or precise, i don't know and it probably varies.

has nyc or nys done further anti-body tests than the statewide one they released several weeks or a month or so ago? where are florida and south carolina and michigan numbers coming from, if you have them?

[a fan]

You'll be hard pressed to get people to stay quarantined for the the rest of the summer unless there's a major outbreak that people see at least anecdotally.

This is the one part that scientists agree on----go outside, and stay outside. This should be the messaging. This is far, far easier to do in States like Colorado, versus NYC etc.

I told my wife that I'd put the idea of not having college or schools open in the fall are close to zero. Americans won't stand for that.

The hope is, that this doesn't fill our hospitals. Fingers crossed.

[RedFromMI]

The way you use the numbers has nothing to do with deaths per million. I'm not sure know how to explain it more simply, but I'll try. if you reduce 328 million by a factor of 328 to get it down to one million, you have to reduce the 87,000 by a factor of 328 to find the number per million. Reducing by a factor of 328 requires dividing by 328. 87000 divided by 328 equals 257.

painful isn't it?

It appears a waste of time anyway. The death totals are inflated and the number infected is exponentially greater.

Epidemiologist 6ft, who can't do simple math, speaks...

There you are living in a vacuum again.

The death totals are not inflated - they are lower than reality. If you disagree with that statement you disagree with all the experts.

The statement that the number infected is exponentially greater is pretty inexact, but the general usage of that phrase would mean much larger. False.

The place in the US with the highest infection rate is NYC - with somewhere just over 20% of the population infected. (And given the death tolls including an estimate of the excess deaths you get a death rate of around .9%. Probably is a bit lower than that but not near the .1% associated with a typical flu season.)

Most parts of the US the infection rate is MUCH lower. For Florida, the estimated infection rate is about 1.3%. For South Carolina, where I live, it is about 1.1%. For Michigan (another state with a lot of early cases) it is about 5.9%.

in almost all cases of epidemics that i've seen, estimates do get marked up after the fact. how they do that, imprecise or precise, i don't know and it probably varies.

has nyc or nys done further anti-body tests than the statewide one they released several weeks or a month or so ago? where are florida and south carolina and michigan numbers coming from, if you have them?

The other state numbers are estimates from covid19-projections.com - you would have to check out their references as to how they get their numbers, but their estimates of everything else seems pretty good. I prefer their method over the UW group stuff.

As to calculating real death tolls - you compare actual deaths in a particular week with multiyear averages and calculate the excess deaths compared to "normal." Current estimates for the US seem to be that the actual numbers compared to the official tolls are roughly 1.4-1.5 times bigger. In some other countries, the excess number is a higher percentage increase, but in the US we are starting to get a handle on the numbers, and some states like NY are already trying to get closer to actual (even without a positive test result).

As far as excess death calculations, NY Times and talkingpointsmemo.com have had some good articles.

[wgdsr]

Wonder if Dr. House would prescribe this: Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies. Maybe only if he was pedaling another drug that is more costly.

Ohhh...lookie here, its on the NIH website: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550
Then NYU is back on the trail: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ne ... -19-deaths

This pandemic stuff is getting creepier and creepier.

see what they publish on it. by quote looks like they got some good results.

as always with all these observational studies... calling for the randomized trials. i guess they'll be here for hcq and others in due time.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20080036v1
the medrxiv preprint.
observational study comparing hcq+zpak use with same therapy while also introducing zinc. similar patient profiles.
main thing they observed was a substantial decrease in mortality/sent to hospice (so also greater discharge rate) with zinc than without.
there was lower icu and ventilation also, but authors say that contribution could be timing of when zinc was being added and less of an availability or willingness to send patients to icu/ventilators early.
no difference in final outcome once in icu.

death/hospice 6.9% vs 13.2% excluding icu, 13.1% vs 22.8% including all patients.

call for need of randomized trials to get better read and make up for the shortcomings of this type of study. been looking for studies done with zinc involved, hopefully more if they're successful.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Wonder if Dr. House would prescribe this: Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies. Maybe only if he was pedaling another drug that is more costly.

Ohhh...lookie here, its on the NIH website: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550
Then NYU is back on the trail: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ne ... -19-deaths

This pandemic stuff is getting creepier and creepier.

see what they publish on it. by quote looks like they got some good results.

as always with all these observational studies... calling for the randomized trials. i guess they'll be here for hcq and others in due time.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20080036v1
the medrxiv preprint.
observational study comparing hcq+zpak use with same therapy while also introducing zinc. similar patient profiles.
main thing they observed was a substantial decrease in mortality/sent to hospice (so also greater discharge rate) with zinc than without.
there was lower icu and ventilation also, but authors say that contribution could be timing of when zinc was being added and less of an availability or willingness to send patients to icu/ventilators early.
no difference in final outcome once in icu.

death/hospice 6.9% vs 13.2% excluding icu, 13.1% vs 22.8% including all patients.

call for need of randomized trials to get better read and make up for the shortcomings of this type of study. been looking for studies done with zinc involved, hopefully more if they're successful.

There was one done at U Albany. I don’t have the link.

[Bart]

Wonder if Dr. House would prescribe this: Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies. Maybe only if he was pedaling another drug that is more costly.

Ohhh...lookie here, its on the NIH website: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550
Then NYU is back on the trail: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ne ... -19-deaths

This pandemic stuff is getting creepier and creepier.

see what they publish on it. by quote looks like they got some good results.

as always with all these observational studies... calling for the randomized trials. i guess they'll be here for hcq and others in due time.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20080036v1
the medrxiv preprint.
observational study comparing hcq+zpak use with same therapy while also introducing zinc. similar patient profiles.
main thing they observed was a substantial decrease in mortality/sent to hospice (so also greater discharge rate) with zinc than without.
there was lower icu and ventilation also, but authors say that contribution could be timing of when zinc was being added and less of an availability or willingness to send patients to icu/ventilators early.
no difference in final outcome once in icu.

death/hospice 6.9% vs 13.2% excluding icu, 13.1% vs 22.8% including all patients.

call for need of randomized trials to get better read and make up for the shortcomings of this type of study. been looking for studies done with zinc involved, hopefully more if they're successful.

Again, this is the same thought process that works for zicam. Thought is that the zinc stops the binding of RhinoVirus to cells and leads to them being cleared. Question seems to be if the zinc would have the same results on those nasty little spike proteins on the Covid virus.

[CU88]

The way you use the numbers has nothing to do with deaths per million. I'm not sure know how to explain it more simply, but I'll try. if you reduce 328 million by a factor of 328 to get it down to one million, you have to reduce the 87,000 by a factor of 328 to find the number per million. Reducing by a factor of 328 requires dividing by 328. 87000 divided by 328 equals 257.

painful isn't it?

It appears a waste of time anyway. The death totals are inflated and the number infected is exponentially greater.

Epidemiologist 6ft, who can't do simple math, speaks...

There you are living in a vacuum again.

The death totals are not inflated - they are lower than reality. If you disagree with that statement you disagree with all the experts.

The statement that the number infected is exponentially greater is pretty inexact, but the general usage of that phrase would mean much larger. False.

The place in the US with the highest infection rate is NYC - with somewhere just over 20% of the population infected. (And given the death tolls including an estimate of the excess deaths you get a death rate of around .9%. Probably is a bit lower than that but not near the .1% associated with a typical flu season.)

Most parts of the US the infection rate is MUCH lower. For Florida, the estimated infection rate is about 1.3%. For South Carolina, where I live, it is about 1.1%. For Michigan (another state with a lot of early cases) it is about 5.9%.

in almost all cases of epidemics that i've seen, estimates do get marked up after the fact. how they do that, imprecise or precise, i don't know and it probably varies.

has nyc or nys done further anti-body tests than the statewide one they released several weeks or a month or so ago? where are florida and south carolina and michigan numbers coming from, if you have them?

The other state numbers are estimates from covid19-projections.com - you would have to check out their references as to how they get their numbers, but their estimates of everything else seems pretty good. I prefer their method over the UW group stuff.

As to calculating real death tolls - you compare actual deaths in a particular week with multiyear averages and calculate the excess deaths compared to "normal." Current estimates for the US seem to be that the actual numbers compared to the official tolls are roughly 1.4-1.5 times bigger. In some other countries, the excess number is a higher percentage increase, but in the US we are starting to get a handle on the numbers, and some states like NY are already trying to get closer to actual (even without a positive test result).

As far as excess death calculations, NY Times and talkingpointsmemo.com have had some good articles.

For the sake of us all, there needs to be a basic and transparent methodology for determine a death count directly related to COVID-19. The CDC needs to set this accounting standard, and avoid the influence of politics in doing so.

[wgdsr]

The way you use the numbers has nothing to do with deaths per million. I'm not sure know how to explain it more simply, but I'll try. if you reduce 328 million by a factor of 328 to get it down to one million, you have to reduce the 87,000 by a factor of 328 to find the number per million. Reducing by a factor of 328 requires dividing by 328. 87000 divided by 328 equals 257.

painful isn't it?

It appears a waste of time anyway. The death totals are inflated and the number infected is exponentially greater.

Epidemiologist 6ft, who can't do simple math, speaks...

There you are living in a vacuum again.

The death totals are not inflated - they are lower than reality. If you disagree with that statement you disagree with all the experts.

The statement that the number infected is exponentially greater is pretty inexact, but the general usage of that phrase would mean much larger. False.

The place in the US with the highest infection rate is NYC - with somewhere just over 20% of the population infected. (And given the death tolls including an estimate of the excess deaths you get a death rate of around .9%. Probably is a bit lower than that but not near the .1% associated with a typical flu season.)

Most parts of the US the infection rate is MUCH lower. For Florida, the estimated infection rate is about 1.3%. For South Carolina, where I live, it is about 1.1%. For Michigan (another state with a lot of early cases) it is about 5.9%.

in almost all cases of epidemics that i've seen, estimates do get marked up after the fact. how they do that, imprecise or precise, i don't know and it probably varies.

has nyc or nys done further anti-body tests than the statewide one they released several weeks or a month or so ago? where are florida and south carolina and michigan numbers coming from, if you have them?

The other state numbers are estimates from covid19-projections.com - you would have to check out their references as to how they get their numbers, but their estimates of everything else seems pretty good. I prefer their method over the UW group stuff.

As to calculating real death tolls - you compare actual deaths in a particular week with multiyear averages and calculate the excess deaths compared to "normal." Current estimates for the US seem to be that the actual numbers compared to the official tolls are roughly 1.4-1.5 times bigger. In some other countries, the excess number is a higher percentage increase, but in the US we are starting to get a handle on the numbers, and some states like NY are already trying to get closer to actual (even without a positive test result).

As far as excess death calculations, NY Times and talkingpointsmemo.com have had some good articles.

there will be plenty of deaths missed that maybe get confirmed via blood tests at later dates, particularly as testing is more readily available. there will also be deaths that were exacerbated by the pandemic and measures taken. they will be covid related for sure, but not as a result of covid causing the death by disease. there's a lot of tabulating to do.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 60406.html
not sure what that covid website is using, but this is an actual serological antibody testing survey done, with the results posted from april 24th, over 20 days ago.
1400 participants, they had residents of miami-dade at 6% ish, or approx 165,000 when, on april 24, they had 10,600 cases in the county. now there are 14,570 cases, a 37% increase. back of the napkin, that would mean 15x the number of actual cases vs confirmed cases, and by now dade county would account for an over 1% infection rate all by themselves.

there are now 43,210 confirmed cases in florida, which given the constraints of extrapolating, gives the state an infection estimate of over 3%.

that serological testing was also done over 2 weeks, a period where the county 2 weeks prior to the 4/24 10,600 number actually had about 6,000 confirmed cases. meaning the numbers could've been higher just from the length of time they were conducting tests. there's a link in the article that says UM will continue to do weekly tests, 750 per week. i'm guessing we'll be seeing a lot more of these studies pop up in the interim of time before we start getting the tens or 100s of millions of serological tests ready in the coming months.

[CU88]

Today the IMPOTUS announced that by the end of 2020 his new initiative, Operation Warp Speed, will deliver be a "few hundred million doses of vaccine".

I am hoping that at least one of his many worshipers here can tell me where I can go and get one of the millions of test that IMPOTUS told us back in March would be available now, at my local corner pharmacy...

But I suspect that all of those DEPLORABLES are waiting for something magical to happen...

IMPOTUS also suggested today that the coronavirus could be eradicated without a vaccine!

“Other things have never had a vaccine, and they go away," - o d

[calourie]

American culture has handled a pandemic.

Protesters, and more than a few posters here would vehemently disagree with this view.

We're changing quite markedly as we post here. Curbside pickup, delivery becoming the norm. People working from home, entirely. Businesses choosing to shutter and limit servfices to help slow the spread. Lots of people wearing masks. 2 months in seclusion for most- and counting!

Never would have believed those changes occurred 4 months ago.

Without trying to be too cold-hearted, unfortunately, I'm sure health professions get the flu each year, and some may die due to stubbornness too.I'ts a shame, really. but I chose the job field I'm in. As did you, afan. We all knew the risks associated.

You're not being cold hearted. Again, there is no right answer as to how and when to reopen.

I know this sounds simple, but I think people will choose themselves. They will choose to come out of seclusion as the govs allow, and how big the pull is from our desire to enjoy the weather, events, surroundings and normalcy. Hogan lifted some restrictions here in MD (starting in 3 hours). If people enjoy the weather this weekend in MD, and don't come down with Corona, they will have short memories. You'll be hard pressed to get people to stay quarantined for the the rest of the summer unless there's a major outbreak that people see at least anecdotally.

This might be good for the Dems, if another wave hits in the fall before election day.

I would think the trends from the relaxing of social distancing would manifest themselves three weeks or so after the opening up in any given state. Some states have been relaxing since May 5, so according to my humble analysis I would expect to have to compare the new hospitalizations and mortality trends starting in about a week for those states, and three weeks from now for the states opening up today. Out here in California, our town just opened up and I'd say we are seeing 3 to four times the traffic we have been, and will likely get even busier in the next 3 weeks, so we will get a pretty good sense of how much, if any, difference the distancing might have made, at least over the short haul.

[get it to x]

American culture has handled a pandemic.

Protesters, and more than a few posters here would vehemently disagree with this view.

We're changing quite markedly as we post here. Curbside pickup, delivery becoming the norm. People working from home, entirely. Businesses choosing to shutter and limit servfices to help slow the spread. Lots of people wearing masks. 2 months in seclusion for most- and counting!

Never would have believed those changes occurred 4 months ago.

Without trying to be too cold-hearted, unfortunately, I'm sure health professions get the flu each year, and some may die due to stubbornness too.I'ts a shame, really. but I chose the job field I'm in. As did you, afan. We all knew the risks associated.

You're not being cold hearted. Again, there is no right answer as to how and when to reopen.

I know this sounds simple, but I think people will choose themselves. They will choose to come out of seclusion as the govs allow, and how big the pull is from our desire to enjoy the weather, events, surroundings and normalcy. Hogan lifted some restrictions here in MD (starting in 3 hours). If people enjoy the weather this weekend in MD, and don't come down with Corona, they will have short memories. You'll be hard pressed to get people to stay quarantined for the the rest of the summer unless there's a major outbreak that people see at least anecdotally.

This might be good for the Dems, if another wave hits in the fall before election day.

I would think the trends from the relaxing of social distancing would manifest themselves three weeks or so after the opening up in any given state. Some states have been relaxing since May 5, so according to my humble analysis I would expect to have to compare the new hospitalizations and mortality trends starting in about a week for those states, and three weeks from now for the states opening up today. Out here in California, our town just opened up and I'd say we are seeing 3 to four times the traffic we have been, and will likely get even busier in the next 3 weeks, so we will get a pretty good sense of how much, if any, difference the distancing might have made, at least over the short haul.

If and when the legacy media figures out they are actually helping Trump with their "The sky is falling" reports they will be for opening the country. I watched the presser today and one reporter, asking whether schools should open in the fall, looked like he was ready to break down and cry. He was almost blubbering. Are there any male reporters you would want by your side in a fight? I might rather have Rachel Maddow.

[Typical Lax Dad]

American culture has handled a pandemic.

Protesters, and more than a few posters here would vehemently disagree with this view.

We're changing quite markedly as we post here. Curbside pickup, delivery becoming the norm. People working from home, entirely. Businesses choosing to shutter and limit servfices to help slow the spread. Lots of people wearing masks. 2 months in seclusion for most- and counting!

Never would have believed those changes occurred 4 months ago.

Without trying to be too cold-hearted, unfortunately, I'm sure health professions get the flu each year, and some may die due to stubbornness too.I'ts a shame, really. but I chose the job field I'm in. As did you, afan. We all knew the risks associated.

You're not being cold hearted. Again, there is no right answer as to how and when to reopen.

I know this sounds simple, but I think people will choose themselves. They will choose to come out of seclusion as the govs allow, and how big the pull is from our desire to enjoy the weather, events, surroundings and normalcy. Hogan lifted some restrictions here in MD (starting in 3 hours). If people enjoy the weather this weekend in MD, and don't come down with Corona, they will have short memories. You'll be hard pressed to get people to stay quarantined for the the rest of the summer unless there's a major outbreak that people see at least anecdotally.

This might be good for the Dems, if another wave hits in the fall before election day.

I would think the trends from the relaxing of social distancing would manifest themselves three weeks or so after the opening up in any given state. Some states have been relaxing since May 5, so according to my humble analysis I would expect to have to compare the new hospitalizations and mortality trends starting in about a week for those states, and three weeks from now for the states opening up today. Out here in California, our town just opened up and I'd say we are seeing 3 to four times the traffic we have been, and will likely get even busier in the next 3 weeks, so we will get a pretty good sense of how much, if any, difference the distancing might have made, at least over the short haul.

The danger zone is into September when you will start to see the virus ramp back up... by the time we get to October and anyone notices, the virus will have been dispersed far wider than it was with this initial outbreak. The solution is not to curtail re-engaging society.... but too keep significant clamps or re-institute mitigation efforts in the last week of August. Something between where we are and where we are going. Unless a miracle occurs, I see the economy seizing up in the late fall into the Spring. Christmas will be bleak. I favor taking the medicine now.

[youthathletics]

American culture has handled a pandemic.

Protesters, and more than a few posters here would vehemently disagree with this view.

We're changing quite markedly as we post here. Curbside pickup, delivery becoming the norm. People working from home, entirely. Businesses choosing to shutter and limit servfices to help slow the spread. Lots of people wearing masks. 2 months in seclusion for most- and counting!

Never would have believed those changes occurred 4 months ago.

Without trying to be too cold-hearted, unfortunately, I'm sure health professions get the flu each year, and some may die due to stubbornness too.I'ts a shame, really. but I chose the job field I'm in. As did you, afan. We all knew the risks associated.

You're not being cold hearted. Again, there is no right answer as to how and when to reopen.

I know this sounds simple, but I think people will choose themselves. They will choose to come out of seclusion as the govs allow, and how big the pull is from our desire to enjoy the weather, events, surroundings and normalcy. Hogan lifted some restrictions here in MD (starting in 3 hours). If people enjoy the weather this weekend in MD, and don't come down with Corona, they will have short memories. You'll be hard pressed to get people to stay quarantined for the the rest of the summer unless there's a major outbreak that people see at least anecdotally.

This might be good for the Dems, if another wave hits in the fall before election day.

I would think the trends from the relaxing of social distancing would manifest themselves three weeks or so after the opening up in any given state. Some states have been relaxing since May 5, so according to my humble analysis I would expect to have to compare the new hospitalizations and mortality trends starting in about a week for those states, and three weeks from now for the states opening up today. Out here in California, our town just opened up and I'd say we are seeing 3 to four times the traffic we have been, and will likely get even busier in the next 3 weeks, so we will get a pretty good sense of how much, if any, difference the distancing might have made, at least over the short haul.

The danger zone is into September when you will start to see the virus ramp back up... by the time we get to October and anyone notices, the virus will have been dispersed far wider than it was with this initial outbreak. The solution is not to curtail re-engaging society.... but too keep significant clamps or re-institute mitigation efforts in the last week of August. Something between where we are and where we are going. Unless a miracle occurs, I see the economy seizing up in the late fall into the Spring. Christmas will be bleak. I favor taking the medicine now.

What leads you to believe Sept/Oct? If the virus only has a short life expectancy while airborne or on the objects. Is you argument that early Fall is when a 2nd wave ramps up from the herd?

[Peter Brown]

Can you imagine if Florida had actually turned out bad? As it was, even some here kept screaming 'but the Florida beaches waaaaaaaahhhhh'.

So as it turns out, that hero to many Andrew Cuomo did a real dishonest no-no which would be bazooka bananas on the front page of every MSM vessel right now, but instead, we have an intrepid reporter at The Daily Caller who gets the scoop.

The New York State Department of Health acknowledged that its recent reporting does not fully reflect the known carnage coronavirus has caused among nursing home and adult care residents.

The NYSDOH told the DCNF its disclosure now only reports coronavirus deaths for long-term care patients that died while physically present at their facility.

New York’s coronavirus tracker “currently does not include out of facility deaths,” NYSDOH spokeswoman Jill Montag told the DCNF. “Deaths of nursing home and adult care facility residents that occurred at hospitals is accounted for in the overall fatality data on our COVID-19 tracker.”

Since May 3rd!!! Now why tf would Cuomo do that? I just can't think of any reason...

Cuomo is such a hero, right?

https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/15/new- ... rcounting/