FWIW, UW has dialed down its projections for Sweden. Current proj is for 5760 deaths, which would be about 550 deaths per 1M pop. That's still bad (worse than USA), but way below where UW was projecting a couple weeks ago (2X or more worse than UK, Italy, Spain).Typical Lax Dad wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 5:06 pmThere will be a natural seasonal curtailment. Have you compared their curtailment to others?wgdsr wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 4:23 pmi still like my charts better! 7 day average and rolling dailies from the swedish website.
icu looks even better than deaths. mid to high 20s per day vs high 30s to 40s in early april.
the deaths on the swedish site definitely carry a lag as they assign to the proper date of death and it's not always in the last 24 hours, icu reporting probably has an element of at least a week lag.
here are the last 5 weeks if you went sunday to saturday on the worldometer site:
4/5-4/11 514
4/12-4/18 524
4/19-4/25 681
4/26- 5/2 477
5/3-5/9 550
5/10-5/14 (only 5 days, 2 left) 309
saturday is almost always a sub 50 day on reporting to worldometer (or has been) so tomorrow will tell whether it came down appreciably or stayed mostly within a band. i wouldn't think anything less than around 20%-ish pointed to anything other than a good week unless followed up on. and even then, it's small sample size. the last 2 days at worldometer were makeups for the previous 2 days, which were atypically low for midweek reports.
At the time, WGDSR and I thought those UW projections were overdone. Looks like UW's model now agrees.