The Nation's Financial Condition

[RedFromMI]

(omitted)

Have we seen suicides increase by 80,000 over the past 6 weeks?

I am not sure anyone has reported an actual statistically significant increase in suicides as of yet. I could find some articles saying the conditions that might lead to suicides are more likely.

[ardilla secreta]

Is moving to Florida considered an attempted suicide?

[Kismet]

Let's here Pete Brown take on this one - bailing out private charter jet owner who happened to donate to the DOPUS campaign

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/14/private ... ilout.html

Private jet company owned by Trump donor gets $27 million bailout

"A private jet company owned by a donor to President Donald Trump received nearly $27 million in government funding under a program run by the Treasury Department, according to government filings. Clay Lacy Aviation is a private jet charter company based in Van Nuys, California, and it appears to have received the largest grant of any private jet company on the list. The vast majority of the other 96 recipients of government funding or loans on the list are major commercial airlines, regional carriers or support companies."

[RedFromMI]

From NYT Coronavirus page:

Almost 3 million people file new unemployment claims.

The U.S. government said Thursday that almost three million people filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, underlining the continuing toll the pandemic is having on American workers.

While the weekly tally of new claims has been declining since late March, the latest report pushed the eight-week total to more than 36 million, a number that would have been unthinkable before the crisis shut down much of the American economy.

The report comes a day after the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome H. Powell, warned that the United States was experiencing an economic hit “without modern precedent” and risked long-term damage if lawmakers don’t do more to prevent long-term joblessness.

[Farfromgeneva]

From NYT Coronavirus page:

Almost 3 million people file new unemployment claims.

The U.S. government said Thursday that almost three million people filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, underlining the continuing toll the pandemic is having on American workers.

While the weekly tally of new claims has been declining since late March, the latest report pushed the eight-week total to more than 36 million, a number that would have been unthinkable before the crisis shut down much of the American economy.

The report comes a day after the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome H. Powell, warned that the United States was experiencing an economic hit “without modern precedent” and risked long-term damage if lawmakers don’t do more to prevent long-term joblessness.

https://www.bls.gov/mobile/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sun-se ... utType=amp

[a fan]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sun-se ... utType=amp

Remember when i told the forum that some folks were focusing on the "government being in the way of reopening", and ignoring the fact that people wouldn't get on a plane (something any of us can do) if you paid them to do so?

In other words, the economic damage has almost nothing to do with government orders, and everything to do with free market choices?

But Congress and Trump and a few million people have managed to convince themselves that if they get government out of the way, the economic damage would end immediately.

Tried to tell ya.

Congress and Trump are acting like the damage is over. Not. even. close.

And just wait for what's coming for commercial real estate. Congress is intentionally letting hundreds of thousands of businesses go under with no bailouts. I'm wondering who it is they think are going to fill all the coming vacancies at the same prices paid pre-Covid?

[Peter Brown]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sun-se ... utType=amp

Remember when i told the forum that some folks were focusing on the "government being in the way of reopening", and ignoring the fact that people wouldn't get on a plane (something any of us can do) if you paid them to do so?

In other words, the economic damage has almost nothing to do with government orders, and everything to do with free market choices?

But Congress and Trump and a few million people have managed to convince themselves that if they get government out of the way, the economic damage would end immediately.

Tried to tell ya.

Congress and Trump are acting like the damage is over. Not. even. close.

And just wait for what's coming for commercial real estate. Congress is intentionally letting hundreds of thousands of businesses go under with no bailouts. I'm wondering who it is they think are going to fill all the coming vacancies at the same prices paid pre-Covid?

It's too easy to exaggerate both sides of this coin.

One, a vaccine will come; and when it does, the economy will rocket. Two, consumer goods and services spending accounts for 70% of the US economy. It is way easier to re-ignite consumer spending and services than industrial.

And yes, consumers (or, just 'citizens') will determine how quickly they are willing to 'get back in the pool'. But when governments keep telling them that they need to be morbidly scared of a virus with a 99%+ survival rate, you should probably start asking why it is that government agencies are such fear-peddlers.

What is happening in this country is: Democrats are demanding the economy stop "until we find a cure" (though yesterday they simply said "until we flatten the curve" - hmmm, is this the new Global Warming becomes Climate Change change?), Republicans are saying you can open up the economy with smart steps.

I can tell you what will happen in November if the two parties continue to play it like this, and it will not be good news for Democrats.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sun-se ... utType=amp

Remember when i told the forum that some folks were focusing on the "government being in the way of reopening", and ignoring the fact that people wouldn't get on a plane (something any of us can do) if you paid them to do so?

In other words, the economic damage has almost nothing to do with government orders, and everything to do with free market choices?

But Congress and Trump and a few million people have managed to convince themselves that if they get government out of the way, the economic damage would end immediately.

Tried to tell ya.

Congress and Trump are acting like the damage is over. Not. even. close.

And just wait for what's coming for commercial real estate. Congress is intentionally letting hundreds of thousands of businesses go under with no bailouts. I'm wondering who it is they think are going to fill all the coming vacancies at the same prices paid pre-Covid?

Look at Sweden’s economic fallout

[a fan]

It's too easy to exaggerate both sides of this coin.

I'm not exaggerating anything. We don't have the infrastructure. I have so say, with each passing comment, I wonder what is is your company does. And what you do at your company.

One, a vaccine will come; and when it does, the economy will rocket.

No. It won't. It will take time, and that's what I'm talking about here.

You have friends in commercial aviation, no? Call one up, and ask them if they'd prefer to have the American public vaccinated from this thing today, or in 6 months. See what they say. THAT is what it means to not have the infrastructure ready.

If we don't have the infrastructure to get the vaccine our

Two, consumer goods and services spending accounts for 70% of the US economy. It is way easier to re-ignite consumer spending and services than industrial.

And where do you think these "consumer goods" come from? They fall from the sky, right? Have you not noticed all the supply chain disruptions cascading through the world's economy?

But when governments keep telling them that they need to be morbidly scared of a virus with a 99%+ survival rate

You don't know that. It's unclear what the survival rate is because we don't have testing to tell. But yours is the path we are taking.....Congress and Trump have put allll their chips on the idea that this is a very contagious virus, that isn't very deadly.

If this is true, we're good, relatively speaking (this is all relative). And I'm hopeful for that. If not? What do we do then?

What is happening in this country is: Democrats are demanding the economy stop "until we find a cure" (though yesterday they simply said "until we flatten the curve" - hmmm, is this the new Global Warming becomes Climate Change change?), Republicans are saying you can open up the economy with smart steps.

Nope. Every State is slowly reopening. Even California. Even Colorado. But as usual, you play your childish games with the truth.

[Farfromgeneva]

Here you go Afan, while I’m really not stressed about a major shakeout in restaurant and bars, frankly it’s like society is purging itself of something not so great for itself like a forest fire cleaning up dead trees as far as social “good” is concerned vs alternative uses of time and money, but one of my favorite restaurants in Atlanta is closing. Makes it sound like a new landlord decision more than COVID.


Rathbun's Restaurants

Dear Friends and Family,

In 2004 I asked the city of Atlanta to come experience my dream in Inman Park and oh what a dream it has been! I hit the ground running with Rathbun's. One year later I opened Krog Bar and had the same success. For sixteen years we have garnered numerous loyal patrons, friends, and many accolades that have led to the Rathbun brand.

Simply, we are closing the original Rathbun's and Krog Bar because our lease is ending. The new owners of Stove Works have a new and exciting vision for the property and we wish them well. We will still be neighbors after all.

For those of you who bought gift certificates, 100% was given to the staff for the employee relief fund at Rathbun's Restaurants, we will be honoring all of your generosity at Kevin Rathbun Steak and KR Steak Bar. Also, the 2020 cooking classes that any of you have purchased will be rescheduled at KR Steak Bar.

My beloved staff and I can't wait to welcome our loyal patrons, friends and family back to raise a glass, and share hospitality the Rathbun way!

I miss y'all and can't wait to see your smiling faces!

"Dreams are the seeds of change. Nothing ever grows without a seed, and nothing ever changes without a dream." We will break bread again soon!

Yours Respectfully,

Chef Kevin Rathbun

Rathbun's Restaurant
112 Krog St NE, Atlanta, GA 30307
404-524-8280

Like us on Facebook View on Instagram

Kevin Rathbun Steak
154 Krog St
Atlanta, GA 30307
404-524-5600

Like us on Facebook View on Instagram

KrogBar
112 Krog St NE, Ste 27
Atlanta, GA 30307
404-524-1618

Like us on Facebook View on Instagram

KR SteakBar
349 Peachtree Hills Ave, Atlanta, GA 30305
404-841-8820

Like us on Facebook View on Instagram

STAY CONNECTED:
RathbunsRestaurants.com
Rathbun's LLC
112 Krog Street Ste R
Inman Park
Atlanta GA 30307
About our service provider
Sent by [email protected]

[Farfromgeneva]

Some fresh data

Lending club sold a pool of newly originated loans, consumer unsecured, through a loan broker. Short average life/duration note receivables (36-60mo fully amortizing terms). Pool of around $50mm sold in the low $80s (per $100) vs mid 90s for a typical sale they have been executing outside of securitization in the prior two years. That’s on basically 2yr paper (average life or balance on fast amortizing plus defaults and full prepayment on 3-5yr loans) so a 10-12pt drop is about a 5-6% yield adjustment on loans with a gross average coupon already in the mid teens.

A mutual fund and credit investor (founded by ex WaMu and SunTrust treasury traders, WaMu failed bc of liquidity management problems so them having a daily liquidity mutual fund is insane but oh well) that had commenced a poorly conceived CRE bridge lending unit 1.5yrs ago is selling their book of around $70mm, avg loan is around $8mm, the loans are on transitional properties which need lease up or some other non vertical construction improvement. Supposedly they’re going to hit a 95 cent bid on the book. That’s 2yr loans with extension options at Libor + 400-700bps. Probably very high LTVs.

Early loan sales are looking like consumer is toast, but CRE holding up for now, think that’s a Q3-Q1 2021 event. Have some CRE fund telling me they think it’s more like a 2022 event on that asset class. C&I (commercial business loans, not secured by CRE) are just not trading much at the moment so even in this less liquid area there’s basically no price discovery yet.

[Jim Malone]

Pool might get wiped out by Chapter 7 debtors who can't file Chapter 13 to pay a percentage of unsecured credit due to plan feasibility from bankruptcy filing projections I am seeing for next 18-36 months based upon job losses and unemployment based formulas we use.

Chapter 13 filings are already down from over a 100 monthly case filings to less than 20 a month in April and May for trustees I provide accounting to.

Chapter 7 trustees probably going to be busy for next few years dumping debtor unsecured debt for 0% and Chapter 13 plans will most likely see many more 10% payouts to unsecured creditors than allowed in past.

Some fresh data

Lending club sold a pool of newly originated loans, consumer unsecured, through a loan broker. Short average life/duration note receivables (36-60mo fully amortizing terms). Pool of around $50mm sold in the low $80s (per $100) vs mid 90s for a typical sale they have been executing outside of securitization in the prior two years. That’s on basically 2yr paper (average life or balance on fast amortizing plus defaults and full prepayment on 3-5yr loans) so a 10-12pt drop is about a 5-6% yield adjustment on loans with a gross average coupon already in the mid teens.

A mutual fund and credit investor (founded by ex WaMu and SunTrust treasury traders, WaMu failed bc of liquidity management problems so them having a daily liquidity mutual fund is insane but oh well) that had commenced a poorly conceived CRE bridge lending unit 1.5yrs ago is selling their book of around $70mm, avg loan is around $8mm, the loans are on transitional properties which need lease up or some other non vertical construction improvement. Supposedly they’re going to hit a 95 cent bid on the book. That’s 2yr loans with extension options at Libor + 400-700bps. Probably very high LTVs.

Early loan sales are looking like consumer is toast, but CRE holding up for now, think that’s a Q3-Q1 2021 event. Have some CRE fund telling me they think it’s more like a 2022 event on that asset class. C&I (commercial business loans, not secured by CRE) are just not trading much at the moment so even in this less liquid area there’s basically no price discovery yet.

[Farfromgeneva]

There’s still a decent bid of around 13 cents on the dollar for point of sale unsecured consumer debt. Usually that’s a messy way to make a nice return but I guess we will see

[old salt]

PPP worked for us. It took a long time to come through, but it enabled us to keep our entire Well Pet Clinic staff on payroll for the 7 weeks we were at state mandated reduced operations. It would have sustained us even if we had to shut down completely for the lockdown period.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/17/ppp-loa ... s-say.html

Many took the free money. We saw it coming. Some took it and will lay-off employees while “opening back up”. Just layered in the lowest cost capital tier available. These “loans” will be converted to grants and its debatable if the PPP money is a liability. It’s evidenced by a note but it is up for debate as to these being “loans”. This is the most obvious case of socialism we have seen since the government cheese days.

[a fan]

Here you go Afan, while I’m really not stressed about a major shakeout in restaurant and bars, frankly it’s like society is purging itself of something not so great for itself like a forest fire cleaning up dead trees as far as social “good”

Restaurants are bad for society?

In any event, even if you don't care about all the restaurant closings coming------a man in your business should worry about the effect these closings will have on the commercial real estate where all these restaurants used to live. What is going to go into those spaces? Certainly not retail.

And then there's office space and airlines....how many managers all over the world are looking at how much money and time they are saving from not having their workers commute or travel? And what will that do to future choices?

[seacoaster]

PPP worked for us. It took a long time to come through, but it enabled us to keep our entire Well Pet Clinic staff on payroll for the 7 weeks we were at state mandated reduced operations. It would have sustained us even if we had to shut down completely for the lockdown period.

That's very good news. Exactly what the program was intended to do.

[MDlaxfan76]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sun-se ... utType=amp

Remember when i told the forum that some folks were focusing on the "government being in the way of reopening", and ignoring the fact that people wouldn't get on a plane (something any of us can do) if you paid them to do so?

In other words, the economic damage has almost nothing to do with government orders, and everything to do with free market choices?

But Congress and Trump and a few million people have managed to convince themselves that if they get government out of the way, the economic damage would end immediately.

Tried to tell ya.

Congress and Trump are acting like the damage is over. Not. even. close.

And just wait for what's coming for commercial real estate. Congress is intentionally letting hundreds of thousands of businesses go under with no bailouts. I'm wondering who it is they think are going to fill all the coming vacancies at the same prices paid pre-Covid?

Florida's new claims were 1/6th of the national new claims...

[MDlaxfan76]

Here you go Afan, while I’m really not stressed about a major shakeout in restaurant and bars, frankly it’s like society is purging itself of something not so great for itself like a forest fire cleaning up dead trees as far as social “good”

Restaurants are bad for society?

In any event, even if you don't care about all the restaurant closings coming------a man in your business should worry about the effect these closings will have on the commercial real estate where all these restaurants used to live. What is going to go into those spaces? Certainly not retail.

And then there's office space and airlines....how many managers all over the world are looking at how much money and time they are saving from not having their workers commute or travel? And what will that do to future choices?

Traditional office space is going to get a radical readjustment as well. A lot of white collar businesses which had resisted work from home are experiencing 25% increases in productivity once they got their systems set up. Businesses are going to adapt, and we'll see very different office work spaces going forward.

Of course, this does assume that the virus doesn't go magically away...

(To be clear, farfromgeneva is not in that crew)

Our 9 yr-old tech business is 100% "virtual" employing ~25 people at any given time. Our investors urged us to commit to office space, but we resisted and instead 'global HQ' remained our home...which has sufficient space for group meetings, etc, when necessary. Though we do have a core group here in Balt/DC area, our people are all over the US and a few abroad, all working rather independently and tech enabled. Most of our sales efforts were likewise using tools such as gotomeeting. This new reality does have an impact on some selling activities, most notably being able to participate in industry conferences. Interacting with people in those environments was important to getting access to senior decision makers.

I suppose that if we were larger, we might commit to a formal office space, but there's no way we'd do a cube farm, etc. It would have some 'hoteling' common areas, breakout rooms, and perhaps an educational room, but that's it. 25% the area of a traditional space, as most work would continue to be done from home.

As more traditional white collar businesses realize that they could do this too, there's going to be way less office space needed.

[Typical Lax Dad]

PPP worked for us. It took a long time to come through, but it enabled us to keep our entire Well Pet Clinic staff on payroll for the 7 weeks we were at state mandated reduced operations. It would have sustained us even if we had to shut down completely for the lockdown period.

That's very good news. Exactly what the program was intended to do.

Yes.