All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[wgdsr]

time to stop.quoting the whole post!

[Typical Lax Dad]

time to stop.quoting the whole post!

I know. I am about to sit and watch UNC vs. UMd. 1984 hoop game

[wgdsr]

california state public universities close classes for fall on may 12. so much for letting science guide us.

[wgdsr]

time to stop.quoting the whole post!

I know. I am about to sit and watch UNC vs. UMd. 1984 hoop game

bastard!
bias in warmups (and the games) looked to be releasing shots above the rim. never seen it before or since.

[Typical Lax Dad]

time to stop.quoting the whole post!

I know. I am about to sit and watch UNC vs. UMd. 1984 hoop game

bastard!
bias in warmups (and the games) looked to be releasing shots above the rim. never seen it before or since.

Man I saw them play against each other at camp! I am looking at lefty Driesell...he rolled into camp in a black limousine the night of the all star game.

[wgdsr]

time to stop.quoting the whole post!

I know. I am about to sit and watch UNC vs. UMd. 1984 hoop game

bastard!
bias in warmups (and the games) looked to be releasing shots above the rim. never seen it before or since.

Man I saw them play against each other at camp! I am looking at lefty Driesell...he rolled into camp in a black limousine the night of the all star game.

lefty was an unparalleled showman. knew what he was doing.
a tape of those blacktop games would be worth something.

[njbill]

True story about Lefty.

One of my bosses in my first job in D.C. was a rabid Maryland basketball fan. But he thought Lefty couldn't coach. He wrote a letter to the editor of the Post saying that Dean Smith could beat Lefty if Dean was coaching the Little Sisters of the Poor and Lefty had the NBA All-Stars.

This was back in the day when it was easy to get someone's phone number. Lefty found my boss's number and called him up to holler at him. The two of them argued for 45 minutes. My boss, who was a pistol himself, never backed down. Lefty eventually hung up on him.

Yeah, he was a character. Never should have told the roommates to clean up Len's room, though.

[Typical Lax Dad]

True story about Lefty.

One of my bosses in my first job in D.C. was a rabid Maryland basketball fan. But he thought Lefty couldn't coach. He wrote a letter to the editor of the Post saying that Dean Smith could beat Lefty if Dean was coaching the Little Sisters of the Poor and Lefty had the NBA All-Stars.

This was back in the day when it was easy to get someone's phone number. Lefty found my boss's number and called him up to holler at him. The two of them argued for 45 minutes. My boss, who was a pistol himself, never backed down. Lefty eventually hung up on him.

Yeah, he was a character. Never should have told the roommates to clean up Len's room, though.

One of the guys in the room was also at camp. A high school teammate of Len’s.

[Laxgunea]

This string prefers to look at numbers from Europe and Asia, but keep checking the difference of Brazil and Argentina. Brazil's handling of the crisis is most similar to the US. Exceptional indeed.
On internment camps: crises bring out the racism and other negative qualities that were already there. National mood be damned.

[MDlaxfan76]

california state public universities close classes for fall on may 12. so much for letting science guide us.

Are you just saying that they could have or should have waited longer to make this call? More data?

Or are you saying that "science" would actually come to a different conclusion based on what we know now?

I just saw the considerations Johns Hopkins is going through, planning for 4 alternate scenarios, every department, every program, having to come up with scenarios, resources needed, etc. Based on their considerable expertise in the epidemiology.

When pushed on it, it was pretty clear that they think that, at best, there will be only some students on campus at any given time (if any) and thus they will need to be mostly or all virtual. The scenarios of most or all students back by fall was clearly not actually expected to be possible...the unspoken takeaway of those of us who participated was that they likely just wanted to delay announcing the decision, but were focused on getting ready for virtual.

I wouldn't say that they are 100% resigned to this reality, but darn close.

Sounds like California decided to bite the bullet and focus resources and planning on being ready.

[Laxgunea]

Science, whatever that means, can't guide us. First, science is more about questions and rethinking than guiding. Guiding is done through policy, and that is done through politics. Our political system is so blinded by market idolatry, that individual interests overwhelm policy. CA schools and Hopkins might be able to go remote, but what about small schools without such public funding or decent endowments? Tuition dependent schools will open face to face or die, especially if they are in areas with low infection rates. Of course, that will increase mobility and spread of the virus, and it may mean more closures.
Small schools were already facing tremendous challenges before COVID. Without clear guiding policy and massive support, we'll see schools go in different directions on this. It would help if there were national guidelines, state guidelines, NCAA guidelines, accrediting guidelines, and agreement by institutions of higher education to all follow together.

[youthathletics]

Insanity. Ca, only has 73 deaths/million and make this decision now. Only to be faced with another decision during the next flu season. Craziness.

[wgdsr]

california state public universities close classes for fall on may 12. so much for letting science guide us.

Are you just saying that they could have or should have waited longer to make this call? More data?

a) do they have all the science they need, "we call it data", to make a decision now.
b) and/or is there a need to make a decision now.

they already had a dry run, have experience, and did it in the spur of the moment. mostly without incident.

is it possible there could be more substantial data in the interim, that would change their perspective, before a decision needed to be made?

of course everyone can have their own perspective on it, i know mine. this has very large implications and shouldn't happen with expediency because pressure, planning and execution would be hard(er).

[Peter Brown]

Insanity. Ca, only has 73 deaths/million and make this decision now. Only to be faced with another decision during the next flu season. Craziness.

Don't worry youth: Californians, as crazy as they can be, found a a way to make a very loud statement last night when Mike Garcia won the 25th Congressional District for the House in a special election to replace Katie Hill. First Republican to replace a Democrat in the CA House delegation since 1998.

The people have spoken: we do not like communism or totalitarianism. This of course is bad news for Democrats.

(*one small hedge: although Garcia has a substantial lead at this time, the Democratic Governor, Gavin Newsome, allowed for 'extra voting' to take place, so there was a mad late night rush by Democratic volunteers to stuff ballot boxes; these votes may take up to a week to count, even though surely a huge chunk will have been fraudulently cast, as they always do...one day hopefully soon, we will have state-issued identification in-person voting or traceable IP address online voting with real-time validation)

[MDlaxfan76]

california state public universities close classes for fall on may 12. so much for letting science guide us.

Are you just saying that they could have or should have waited longer to make this call? More data?

a) do they have all the science they need, "we call it data", to make a decision now.
b) and/or is there a need to make a decision now.

they already had a dry run, have experience, and did it in the spur of the moment. mostly without incident.

is it possible there could be more substantial data in the interim, that would change their perspective, before a decision needed to be made?

of course everyone can have their own perspective on it, i know mine. this has very large implications and shouldn't happen with expediency because pressure, planning and execution would be hard(er).

Fair position.
Similar to where Hopkins is, though I'd say they certainly think that's where it's going, based upon the best, meaning most optimistic, predictions of test and trace and isolate capabilities. Which are inadequate, even with the promised 10-fold increase from where we were in April.

While they are thinking about how many students they could actually handle with singles only with dedicated bathroom capabilities...the big issue is staff and faculty protections, plus the reality of international students and the probability that they won't be able to travel to the US by then. while certainly student protection is not irrelevant, the concern is that close quarters translates to petrie dish spread, making it extremely difficult to protect surrounding community. Half of students live off campus, in the community, but also typically in congregate living, so difficult to truly isolate infections.

I'm not sure what will change this calculus over the next months other than confirmation of new blooms to the downside or the 'miracle' of this 'magically going away' without a vaccine to the upside. But the scientists are saying that even if summer helps, expect the second wave come fall. Only the partisans are suggesting otherwise.

But do you think there's something else that could change the calculus sufficiently?
Reducing death rate from infections will matter, but unless we're clear of serious long term health damage as well, not sure even therapies will help...unless its a quite miraculous drug. I don't think the scientists are putting much weight on that possibility before fall.

Seems to me that we'll be doing elementary and middle school age kids back to school sooner than HS and college. Need to in order to let parents go back to work. There's going to be a ton of pressure on that, for sure.

[MDlaxfan76]

Science, whatever that means, can't guide us. First, science is more about questions and rethinking than guiding. Guiding is done through policy, and that is done through politics. Our political system is so blinded by market idolatry, that individual interests overwhelm policy. CA schools and Hopkins might be able to go remote, but what about small schools without such public funding or decent endowments? Tuition dependent schools will open face to face or die, especially if they are in areas with low infection rates. Of course, that will increase mobility and spread of the virus, and it may mean more closures.
Small schools were already facing tremendous challenges before COVID. Without clear guiding policy and massive support, we'll see schools go in different directions on this. It would help if there were national guidelines, state guidelines, NCAA guidelines, accrediting guidelines, and agreement by institutions of higher education to all follow together.

+1

It would be interesting to know whether the original CDC guidelines recently submitted to the Task Force included these details in their recommendations. What's being reported is that the CDC indeed got quite granular, but the White House doesn't want it to have such specifics. argghhh

[Typical Lax Dad]

Science, whatever that means, can't guide us. First, science is more about questions and rethinking than guiding. Guiding is done through policy, and that is done through politics. Our political system is so blinded by market idolatry, that individual interests overwhelm policy. CA schools and Hopkins might be able to go remote, but what about small schools without such public funding or decent endowments? Tuition dependent schools will open face to face or die, especially if they are in areas with low infection rates. Of course, that will increase mobility and spread of the virus, and it may mean more closures.
Small schools were already facing tremendous challenges before COVID. Without clear guiding policy and massive support, we'll see schools go in different directions on this. It would help if there were national guidelines, state guidelines, NCAA guidelines, accrediting guidelines, and agreement by institutions of higher education to all follow together.

+1

It would be interesting to know whether the original CDC guidelines recently submitted to the Task Force included these details in their recommendations. What's being reported is that the CDC indeed got quite granular, but the White House doesn't want it to have such specifics. argghhh

I am hoping it will be a State by state decision. My daughter’s college state has had low infections and deaths. Hopefully she can get back on campus. Without an effective testing strategy it is going to be hard get kids back in hot states / communities. Those poor early decisions are killing us. Here we are 5 months in and still no effective testing strategy.

[MDlaxfan76]

Science, whatever that means, can't guide us. First, science is more about questions and rethinking than guiding. Guiding is done through policy, and that is done through politics. Our political system is so blinded by market idolatry, that individual interests overwhelm policy. CA schools and Hopkins might be able to go remote, but what about small schools without such public funding or decent endowments? Tuition dependent schools will open face to face or die, especially if they are in areas with low infection rates. Of course, that will increase mobility and spread of the virus, and it may mean more closures.
Small schools were already facing tremendous challenges before COVID. Without clear guiding policy and massive support, we'll see schools go in different directions on this. It would help if there were national guidelines, state guidelines, NCAA guidelines, accrediting guidelines, and agreement by institutions of higher education to all follow together.

+1

It would be interesting to know whether the original CDC guidelines recently submitted to the Task Force included these details in their recommendations. What's being reported is that the CDC indeed got quite granular, but the White House doesn't want it to have such specifics. argghhh

I am hoping it will be a State by state decision. My daughter’s college state has had low infections and deaths. Hopefully she can get back on campus. Without an effective testing strategy it is going to be hard get kids back in hot states / communities. Those poor early decisions are killing us. Here we are 5 months in and still no effective testing strategy.

It will indeed likely be partially state by state insofar as any states restrict college decisions. But most states are likely to let colleges make the decisions for themselves. (unless there's lots of blooms this summer and states go "ohh sh-t" )

And laxgunea is likely right that wealthier schools may opt to stay virtual and those who can't afford to do so will gamble. And those less wealthy schools are also less likely to afford the kinds of PPE and policies that would be necessary to prevent a bloom, and to test and trace and isolate. They'll just gamble.

And that's going to create situations ala the meat plants and prisons, though with fewer deaths of the initial bloom (given youth)...but the surrounding communities will have a serious issue...

[Typical Lax Dad]

Science, whatever that means, can't guide us. First, science is more about questions and rethinking than guiding. Guiding is done through policy, and that is done through politics. Our political system is so blinded by market idolatry, that individual interests overwhelm policy. CA schools and Hopkins might be able to go remote, but what about small schools without such public funding or decent endowments? Tuition dependent schools will open face to face or die, especially if they are in areas with low infection rates. Of course, that will increase mobility and spread of the virus, and it may mean more closures.
Small schools were already facing tremendous challenges before COVID. Without clear guiding policy and massive support, we'll see schools go in different directions on this. It would help if there were national guidelines, state guidelines, NCAA guidelines, accrediting guidelines, and agreement by institutions of higher education to all follow together.

+1

It would be interesting to know whether the original CDC guidelines recently submitted to the Task Force included these details in their recommendations. What's being reported is that the CDC indeed got quite granular, but the White House doesn't want it to have such specifics. argghhh

I am hoping it will be a State by state decision. My daughter’s college state has had low infections and deaths. Hopefully she can get back on campus. Without an effective testing strategy it is going to be hard get kids back in hot states / communities. Those poor early decisions are killing us. Here we are 5 months in and still no effective testing strategy.

It will indeed likely be partially state by state insofar as any states restrict college decisions. But most states are likely to let colleges make the decisions for themselves. (unless there's lots of blooms this summer and states go "ohh sh-t" )

And laxgunea is likely right that wealthier schools may opt to stay virtual and those who can't afford to do so will gamble. And those less wealthy schools are also less likely to afford the kinds of PPE and policies that would be necessary to prevent a bloom, and to test and trace and isolate. They'll just gamble.

And that's going to create situations ala the meat plants and prisons, though with fewer deaths of the initial bloom (given youth)...but the surrounding communities will have a serious issue...

This is why we are going to have bigger problems. People that should be isolated will be out spreading the virus. A wider and deeper Saftey net would reduce this risk. You get what you pay for, or sometimes you get what you don’t pay for.

[wgdsr]

california state public universities close classes for fall on may 12. so much for letting science guide us.

Are you just saying that they could have or should have waited longer to make this call? More data?

a) do they have all the science they need, "we call it data", to make a decision now.
b) and/or is there a need to make a decision now.

they already had a dry run, have experience, and did it in the spur of the moment. mostly without incident.

is it possible there could be more substantial data in the interim, that would change their perspective, before a decision needed to be made?

of course everyone can have their own perspective on it, i know mine. this has very large implications and shouldn't happen with expediency because pressure, planning and execution would be hard(er).

Fair position.
Similar to where Hopkins is, though I'd say they certainly think that's where it's going, based upon the best, meaning most optimistic, predictions of test and trace and isolate capabilities. Which are inadequate, even with the promised 10-fold increase from where we were in April.

While they are thinking about how many students they could actually handle with singles only with dedicated bathroom capabilities...the big issue is staff and faculty protections, plus the reality of international students and the probability that they won't be able to travel to the US by then. while certainly student protection is not irrelevant, the concern is that close quarters translates to petrie dish spread, making it extremely difficult to protect surrounding community. Half of students live off campus, in the community, but also typically in congregate living, so difficult to truly isolate infections.

I'm not sure what will change this calculus over the next months other than confirmation of new blooms to the downside or the 'miracle' of this 'magically going away' without a vaccine to the upside. But the scientists are saying that even if summer helps, expect the second wave come fall. Only the partisans are suggesting otherwise.

But do you think there's something else that could change the calculus sufficiently?
Reducing death rate from infections will matter, but unless we're clear of serious long term health damage as well, not sure even therapies will help...unless its a quite miraculous drug. I don't think the scientists are putting much weight on that possibility before fall.

Seems to me that we'll be doing elementary and middle school age kids back to school sooner than HS and college. Need to in order to let parents go back to work. There's going to be a ton of pressure on that, for sure.

i believe there will be additional information before decisions like this need to be made. i use as examples all the new info, directions, initiatives that have gone on since this started. and maybe increasingly so, given the now larger "market" for it.

maybe you (and others) are of the opinion that we have the playbook already, the path is clear other than a miracle. or you're just playing devil's advocate.

in either case, i'm far from convinced there is/was a need to make a call on it now. seems a lot more like making their job easier. as an example, and i have zero idea whether this is the case at all, it's conjecture... calif goes to online classes in july by need and all info gathered by then. 30% of students defer. no one there to take their place. do it today, students to take their place. don't have to work on other contingency plans. $ rolls in. less work to do. statue commissioned. bc it's about the kids.