All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[old salt]

Posting error. Corrected in my next post.

[old salt]

40-50% of the covid deaths in texas are in nursing homes.
75% in minnesota
60% in massachusetts and maine.
75% in rhode island.
60% in connecticut. more disturbingly, 90% of last week's deaths. even as we know what we know.
68% in pennsylvania. 80% in the pittsburgh area.
60% in washington.
50% in new jersey.
new york was lower in percentages, but now ny is recalibrating every day and looks like it might be a disaster in policy and numbers.
and on and on and on.

not old people. in nursing homes and long term care facilities only. it would seem there's a fairly straightforward way to reduce deaths in a major way, and that's to start treating nursing homes like they are the fort knox of covid.

we can all drone on and on about our solutions. as can the government. we absolutely know these are the centers of the worst outcomes for covid targets. a fraction of the money spent on all other resources to fight the pandemic can be expended to get nursing homes buttoned up. those are monster numbers.

reports of many of them struggling to obtain ppe as hospitals are prioritized. this is where it's happening. supplies, tests, protocols. get them locked down with the highest of protocols until we can determine a sensible way for families to reengage with them.

70% of MD's deaths are in nursing homes. Poultry processing plants on the E shore re the new hot spots which are being addressed.

[RedFromMI]

40-50% of the covid deaths in texas are in nursing homes.
75% in minnesota
60% in massachusetts and maine.
75% in rhode island.
60% in connecticut. more disturbingly, 90% of last week's deaths. even as we know what we know.
68% in pennsylvania. 80% in the pittsburgh area.
60% in washington.
50% in new jersey.
new york was lower in percentages, but now ny is recalibrating every day and looks like it might be a disaster in policy and numbers.
and on and on and on.

not old people. in nursing homes and long term care facilities only. it would seem there's a fairly straightforward way to reduce deaths in a major way, and that's to start treating nursing homes like they are the fort knox of covid.

we can all drone on and on about our solutions. as can the government. we absolutely know these are the centers of the worst outcomes for covid targets. a fraction of the money spent on all other resources to fight the pandemic can be expended to get nursing homes buttoned up. those are monster numbers.

reports of many of them struggling to obtain ppe as hospitals are prioritized. this is where it's happening. supplies, tests, protocols. get them locked down with the highest of protocols until we can determine a sensible way for families to reengage with them.

This is of course correct, need more PPE, need more focus. (which isn't to say short the hospitals!!!)

So, how do we feel about Pence making a show of delivering 'supplies' to a nursing home...with empty boxes for show?

My mother in law is in assisted living. Very strict lockdown, PPE, etc.
So far, no residents infected. But two staff.

But it's a high end facility with apartments, not a nursing home with multiple beds per room.

My daughter is currently doing a geriatric rotation - which means a local nursing home connected to her hospital of residency. Any new admit gets tested, as well as anyone with symptoms.

Best example is the guy in New Jersey who runs the home that has been in his family for years. Actually moved on site, and put up trailers for staff to live right there. No cases.

[ggait]

not old people. in nursing homes and long term care facilities only. it would seem there's a fairly straightforward way to reduce deaths in a major way, and that's to start treating nursing homes like they are the fort knox of covid.

WG -- do you know anyone in an elder care facility? The ones I know have been in crazy DefCon 1 lockdown for quite some time and that isn't going away any time soon.

So I'm not sure what more you could really be doing on this front, honestly. Lock all the workers inside the facility 24/7? Move people out of these facilities? But they still need to be somewhere and still need workers to provide them high touch care?

What is your straightforward solution?

[a fan]

So, how do we feel about Pence making a show of delivering 'supplies' to a nursing home...with empty boxes for show?

Politicians do photo ops like this all the time. Nothing sandwich. Who was it that was in the tank? OS would know. Dukakis? Can't remember.

The problem, obviously, is the shortage of PPE and masks make this look REALLY bad.

[Typical Lax Dad]

40-50% of the covid deaths in texas are in nursing homes.
75% in minnesota
60% in massachusetts and maine.
75% in rhode island.
60% in connecticut. more disturbingly, 90% of last week's deaths. even as we know what we know.
68% in pennsylvania. 80% in the pittsburgh area.
60% in washington.
50% in new jersey.
new york was lower in percentages, but now ny is recalibrating every day and looks like it might be a disaster in policy and numbers.
and on and on and on.

not old people. in nursing homes and long term care facilities only. it would seem there's a fairly straightforward way to reduce deaths in a major way, and that's to start treating nursing homes like they are the fort knox of covid.

we can all drone on and on about our solutions. as can the government. we absolutely know these are the centers of the worst outcomes for covid targets. a fraction of the money spent on all other resources to fight the pandemic can be expended to get nursing homes buttoned up. those are monster numbers.

reports of many of them struggling to obtain ppe as hospitals are prioritized. this is where it's happening. supplies, tests, protocols. get them locked down with the highest of protocols until we can determine a sensible way for families to reengage with them.

We live and learn. The initial thought 60 days ago was to lock down old people and let everyone else go on about their business until we found that a lot of people showing up in the hospitals consuming resources were middle age people. Not sure how many would have died but for hospitalization. Since it is novel virus and we could not predict how large of a problem we would see other than a model, we employed social distancing to slow the spread and provide us with the time to accrue assets in anticipation of potential mass casualty situations. We experienced mass casualty in certain geographies but the issue wasn’t as wide spread as anticipated. Partly became we got out in front of it in some areas and perhaps we don’t know why in others. Once we get the current outbreak under control, I don’t see us going back to life as normal for everyone other than old people unless we have ramped up testing and tracking capabilities. Otherwise, we will be faced with mass casualty situations and this time worse as the virus would have been more broadly distributed throughout the population. I believe we will see a natural declination in transmission over the summer. It’s fools gold unless this virus does not behave like every other virus known to man. By the time it re-emerges, it will be far worse if we have not ramped up our testing game. I don’t see us getting back to this full lock down scenario if we have upped our testing. I would expect more of an emphasis on the elderly and folks with underlying conditions. Everyone else will just need to be more vigilant regarding transmission. But if there is no systematic testing and tracing, it’s just a hope and a prayer. It seems like these viruses are getting increasingly dangerous since 2005.

[CU77]

Situation in Florida, from NYT:

A 35-year-old man in Broward County was riding an all-terrain vehicle nine days after testing positive for the coronavirus. At one point, he stopped his A.T.V. and called his father, who had been trailing him, and told him he did not feel well. When his father drove up, he found his son unresponsive, slumped over on the A.T.V. He was taken to the hospital, where he was pronounced dead.

A 39-year-old disc jockey in Lee County who was twice denied a coronavirus test at an outpatient clinic was hospitalized in March with shortness of breath.

Three days later, he died.

[6ftstick]

Situation in Florida, from NYT:

A 35-year-old man in Broward County was riding an all-terrain vehicle nine days after testing positive for the coronavirus. At one point, he stopped his A.T.V. and called his father, who had been trailing him, and told him he did not feel well. When his father drove up, he found his son unresponsive, slumped over on the A.T.V. He was taken to the hospital, where he was pronounced dead.

A 39-year-old disc jockey in Lee County who was twice denied a coronavirus test at an outpatient clinic was hospitalized in March with shortness of breath.

Three days later, he died.

As of today

NY has over 20,000 dead.

Florida 1600.

[youthathletics]

Situation in Florida, from NYT:

A 35-year-old man in Broward County was riding an all-terrain vehicle nine days after testing positive for the coronavirus. At one point, he stopped his A.T.V. and called his father, who had been trailing him, and told him he did not feel well. When his father drove up, he found his son unresponsive, slumped over on the A.T.V. He was taken to the hospital, where he was pronounced dead.

A 39-year-old disc jockey in Lee County who was twice denied a coronavirus test at an outpatient clinic was hospitalized in March with shortness of breath.

Three days later, he died.

What is your point?

[kramerica.inc]

As of today

NY has over 20,000 dead.*

* After adding in all the supposed "related" COVID deaths.



How much does a hospital get for each "COVID related" death? For each Covid-related respirator it occupies?

[Typical Lax Dad]

As of today

NY has over 20,000 dead.*

* After adding in all the supposed "related" COVID deaths.



How much does a hospital get for each "COVID related" death? For each Covid-related respirator it occupies?

AIDS also doesn't kill anyone.

[wgdsr]

not old people. in nursing homes and long term care facilities only. it would seem there's a fairly straightforward way to reduce deaths in a major way, and that's to start treating nursing homes like they are the fort knox of covid.

WG -- do you know anyone in an elder care facility? The ones I know have been in crazy DefCon 1 lockdown for quite some time and that isn't going away any time soon.

So I'm not sure what more you could really be doing on this front, honestly. Lock all the workers inside the facility 24/7? Move people out of these facilities? But they still need to be somewhere and still need workers to provide them high touch care?

What is your straightforward solution?

if what you're saying (and by what you didn't say) is true, i assume there have been no outbreaks there? maybe it means they're doing all that they can.
it hasn't gotten into every facility. some might be lucky, but the ones that have had better "luck" by now probably have had by and large better protocols. that would leave unlucky facilities and probably some large percentage that have holes in their procedures.
what are those holes and those procedures? they won't be asking me, but it probably would be instructive to start with a survey and where things may have been failing.

no visitors.
tests for anyone with direct contact with patients every 2 weeks. same with anyone that has had close contact with anyone confirmed at any level.
hopefully procedures are already in place most places, but even a law (or industry standard) mandating workers taking a body temp test before entering workplace.
many other things are certainly being done but might not be universal (i.e one nursing home isolates patients and any workers who have contact with them. others might have those workes using ppe but working with others in the facility).
don't have workers do 1 job throughout the whole facility, but rather have a tight rotation and multi task with other workers those jobs that can be doubled up.
there's plenty of other ideas that me or anyone could throw at it, including money, housing... but it doesn't make sense to hear any details from me, i have no idea how it's getting in. most or all ideas i have probably s*ck. i just know it doesn't jump fences or walk through doors on its own.... the straightforward solution lies in how it got into the facilities in the first place. and what could've been done to avoid it. and once it's in, to corral it.

[6ftstick]

Whoopsie

As of May 4th

66% of all U.S. counties have no more than one coronavirus death,
80% have five or fewer,
86% have 10 or fewer,
and 89% have fewer than 15.

[old salt]

Once we get the current outbreak under control, I don’t see us going back to life as normal for everyone other than old people unless we have ramped up testing and tracking capabilities.

I would expect more of an emphasis on the elderly and folks with underlying conditions.

It will be expensive & inconvenient, but nursing homes, assisted living facilities, & senior living communities can be made safe.

As you've indicated before, how do we isolate & sustain the seniors & other's at risk who do not have the means to safeguard themselves or take advantage of one of the above residential options.

I'm not confident there's public or govt support or capability to address this. I fear we are on our own to provide for ourselves & there will continue to be a high mortality rate among seniors until there is a vaccine.

[jhu72]

Why should we be surprised that COVID runs rampant in for profit parking lots for the elderly that are underregulated and compete largely on price alone?

[kramerica.inc]

Whoopsie

As of May 4th

66% of all U.S. counties have no more than one coronavirus death,
80% have five or fewer,
86% have 10 or fewer,
and 89% have fewer than 15.

Kind of matches the straw poll for this thread, above.

[jhu72]

Whoopsie

As of May 4th

66% of all U.S. counties have no more than one coronavirus death,
80% have five or fewer,
86% have 10 or fewer,
and 89% have fewer than 15.

Kind of matches the straw poll for this thread, above.

Like any of this means anything. What is the population density of those counties? You are not going to catch COVID if you don't interact with other humans. So you are telling us that 66% of all US counties are naturally self distancing. Like this should surprise anyone that knows even a little geography.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Once we get the current outbreak under control, I don’t see us going back to life as normal for everyone other than old people unless we have ramped up testing and tracking capabilities.

I would expect more of an emphasis on the elderly and folks with underlying conditions.

It will be expensive & inconvenient, but nursing homes, assisted living facilities, & senior living communities can be made safe.

As you've indicated before, how do we isolate & sustain the seniors & other's at risk who do not have the means to safeguard themselves or take advantage of one of the above residential options.

I'm not confident there's public or govt support or capability to address this. I fear we are on our own to provide for ourselves & there will continue to be a high mortality rate among seniors until there is a vaccine.

Protecting oneself when able to should be a given. I heard from another friend just outside Paris also. They will be able to get out of the house for virtually the first time in 55 days. We just don’t have that kind of discipline here.

[SCLaxAttack]

not old people. in nursing homes and long term care facilities only. it would seem there's a fairly straightforward way to reduce deaths in a major way, and that's to start treating nursing homes like they are the fort knox of covid.

WG -- do you know anyone in an elder care facility? The ones I know have been in crazy DefCon 1 lockdown for quite some time and that isn't going away any time soon.

So I'm not sure what more you could really be doing on this front, honestly. Lock all the workers inside the facility 24/7? Move people out of these facilities? But they still need to be somewhere and still need workers to provide them high touch care?

What is your straightforward solution?

if what you're saying (and by what you didn't say) is true, i assume there have been no outbreaks there? maybe it means they're doing all that they can.
it hasn't gotten into every facility. some might be lucky, but the ones that have had better "luck" by now probably have had by and large better protocols. that would leave unlucky facilities and probably some large percentage that have holes in their procedures.
what are those holes and those procedures? they won't be asking me, but it probably would be instructive to start with a survey and where things may have been failing.

no visitors.
tests for anyone with direct contact with patients every 2 weeks. same with anyone that has had close contact with anyone confirmed at any level.
hopefully procedures are already in place most places, but even a law (or industry standard) mandating workers taking a body temp test before entering workplace.
many other things are certainly being done but might not be universal (i.e one nursing home isolates patients and any workers who have contact with them. others might have those workes using ppe but working with others in the facility).
don't have workers do 1 job throughout the whole facility, but rather have a tight rotation and multi task with other workers those jobs that can be doubled up.
there's plenty of other ideas that me or anyone could throw at it, including money, housing... but it doesn't make sense to hear any details from me, i have no idea how it's getting in. most or all ideas i have probably s*ck. i just know it doesn't jump fences or walk through doors on its own.... the straightforward solution lies in how it got into the facilities in the first place. and what could've been done to avoid it. and once it's in, to corral it.

No visitation is unsustainable. You'll have separated elder spouses and middle aged children into two categories - those who love their elder parent and will do everything possible to keep them from entering a nursing home, and those who can't wait to be rid of the obligation. Put'em in, forget about them, and pick up the coffin after they die.

[jhu72]

Once we get the current outbreak under control, I don’t see us going back to life as normal for everyone other than old people unless we have ramped up testing and tracking capabilities.

I would expect more of an emphasis on the elderly and folks with underlying conditions.

It will be expensive & inconvenient, but nursing homes, assisted living facilities, & senior living communities can be made safe.

As you've indicated before, how do we isolate & sustain the seniors & other's at risk who do not have the means to safeguard themselves or take advantage of one of the above residential options.

I'm not confident there's public or govt support or capability to address this. I fear we are on our own to provide for ourselves & there will continue to be a high mortality rate among seniors until there is a vaccine.

Protecting oneself when able to should be a given. I heard from another friend just outside Paris also. They will be able to get out of the house for virtually the first time in 55 days. We just don’t have that kind of discipline here.

… and we will pay for it. Numbers are already starting to bounce back based on what I am seeing.