All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[tech37]

Fair enough.

And don’t get me wrong. I’m not excited about “only” 200k deaths. At this point, it’s here and it’s a risk.

The “unintended consequences“ are being counted as Part of those covid deaths- people who had other underlying conditions or couldn’t get a bed due to someone else taking the spot. Those are part of the 200k numbers.

But what is being ignored are the unintended consequences of keeping people at home, people afraid to get regular treatments or needed surgeries or life-threatening ailments checked out at ERs. Cancers going undiagnosed, mental illness, depression, and of course the financial side, families and businesses in ruin. That is a risk too IMO. And a toll of covid.

I’d argue that those unintended consequences and terrible scenarios probably outnumber the worst case death scenarios. And those can be prevented by lifting restrictions and imploring people to go about their lives in a new, different and safer manner. But let them know that there are still risks.

+1

+2

It sucks all around, and there are no right moves, given the lack of testing. Hopefully, two things happen.

1. Testing catches up. Testing helps let us know how deadly the disease is.
2. This virus is far more contagious than we thought, and therefore it's far less deadly than we thought...and places like Italy and NY simply got hit all at once.

Exactly a fan...

[CU88]

o d thinks all this testing just make us look bad.

He ought to know.

Tests made him look really bad throughout his schooling.

[MDlaxfan76]

Fair enough.

And don’t get me wrong. I’m not excited about “only” 200k deaths. At this point, it’s here and it’s a risk.

The “unintended consequences“ are being counted as Part of those covid deaths- people who had other underlying conditions or couldn’t get a bed due to someone else taking the spot. Those are part of the 200k numbers.

But what is being ignored are the unintended consequences of keeping people at home, people afraid to get regular treatments or needed surgeries or life-threatening ailments checked out at ERs. Cancers going undiagnosed, mental illness, depression, and of course the financial side, families and businesses in ruin. That is a risk too IMO. And a toll of covid.

I’d argue that those unintended consequences and terrible scenarios probably outnumber the worst case death scenarios. And those can be prevented by lifting restrictions and imploring people to go about their lives in a new, different and safer manner. But let them know that there are still risks.

+1

+2

It sucks all around, and there are no right moves, given the lack of testing. Hopefully, two things happen.

1. Testing catches up. Testing helps let us know how deadly the disease is.
2. This virus is far more contagious than we thought, and therefore it's far less deadly than we thought...and places like Italy and NY simply got hit all at once.

Exactly a fan...

Just to be clear, the hospitals are open for cancer treatments, etc.
Yes, people may be afraid, but they're not locked in their homes.

Don't beat back the virus and instead let it swell again to #'s that crush hospital staffs and people are going to stay afraid to come in.

[a fan]

Yes. We're back to "there are no right moves".

[wgdsr]

200k is reasonable. Half a million was what I expected.

Kra -- thanks for answering the question that most will not.

Personally, I think 500k is way too many deaths to take. But like everything, it is a trade off.

500k USA deaths would work out to 1500 per million pop. Right now Spain is projected to get to 590; Italy 524. So your number would be almost 3X those countries. But in return, you'd get somewhat less restrictions on activity -- maybe like Sweden (1,000 projected). But you would still have to be significantly restricted (like Sweden is) to hit your number.

My number would be about the same as Italy and Spain. And we'd basically be doing about what we are doing now.

Life is about choices. But doing nothing and having low deaths is not one of the available choices...

man, i know models can be useful. at this point, i'm just hoping they're productive and not counterproductive. "scary" models, for example, can maybe help shape behavior in a way edicts don't.
spain is already at 558. i'll take the over.
italy's at 495. again, i'll take the over as these countries are now looking at "opening back up".
i'll take the under on sweden. who knows how long this lasts, and if they even go along at an even clip (which could be optimistic but the last week and a half are promising) it will only take 3 months to get there. in the absence of a therapeutic, their fate lies in whether they are actually building toward immunity, and if there even is in fact lasting immunity.
they've gone from guidance of isolating elders to lockdowns on nursing and long term care facilities. or so they say. that could have a major impact, too.
these articles:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/europe/s ... index.html
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... ncing.html
don't give me the sense that they're significantly restricted. their gdp is expected to drop between 4-6% this quarter after being down 0.3% in the first quarter. unemployment which was at 7.4% in february may climb over 10% in the summer by projections.
compare that to the us, whose 2nd quarter will be god knows what and unemployment is already clipping over 20%.

in an ironic twist of fate, the leader of the model cottage industry, neil ferguson of imperial college... is stepping down from his british government advisory position for violating his social distancing edicts:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -breaking/

[RedFromMI]

Pompeo changes tune on Chinese lab's role in virus outbreak, as intel officials cast doubt

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pompeo- ... d=70559769

Secretary of State Pompeo is leaning even harder into his attacks on the Chinese government over the novel coronavirus pandemic -- even as he further walks back his claim that the U.S. has "enormous evidence" a biomedical laboratory in Wuhan, China, is responsible for the outbreak.

The change comes as an intelligence official says there is no signals or human intelligence backing up the idea, while lawmakers press the administration to turn over any evidence.

The U.S. intelligence community is investigating whether or not the virus originated in a lab, but it "concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified," the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in a statement last week.

While Pompeo has said he doesn't doubt the intelligence community assessment, he has boosted the unproven theory the first human infection came from an accidental or intentional release at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. He first told ABC News' "This Week" Sunday that there was "enormous evidence" supporting that unproven theory, before shifting slightly Wednesday to say there's "significant" evidence, but the U.S. doesn't have "certainty" yet.

But in interviews Thursday, Pompeo shifted again, telling a conservative talk radio host, "There's evidence that it came from somewhere in the vicinity of the lab, but that could be wrong."

"We've seen evidence that it came from the lab. That may not be the case," he said in a second talk radio interview.

[old salt]

Spain, Italy & Germany are opening up. Ask your friends in Lyon if France is yet.

They were supposed to open up on the 6th. I will ask....actually it was the 11th. I sent a WhatsApp

France begins opening up next Mon. 2 zones. Paris & NE corner slower than the rest of the country.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Spain, Italy & Germany are opening up. Ask your friends in Lyon if France is yet.

They were supposed to open up on the 6th. I will ask....actually it was the 11th. I sent a WhatsApp

France begins opening up next Mon. 2 zones. Paris & NE corner slower than the rest of the country.

I had not heard back. Thanks. Set of friends in Lyon, Neully, and near the Swiss border.

[MDlaxfan76]

Pompeo changes tune on Chinese lab's role in virus outbreak, as intel officials cast doubt

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pompeo- ... d=70559769

Secretary of State Pompeo is leaning even harder into his attacks on the Chinese government over the novel coronavirus pandemic -- even as he further walks back his claim that the U.S. has "enormous evidence" a biomedical laboratory in Wuhan, China, is responsible for the outbreak.

The change comes as an intelligence official says there is no signals or human intelligence backing up the idea, while lawmakers press the administration to turn over any evidence.

The U.S. intelligence community is investigating whether or not the virus originated in a lab, but it "concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified," the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in a statement last week.

While Pompeo has said he doesn't doubt the intelligence community assessment, he has boosted the unproven theory the first human infection came from an accidental or intentional release at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. He first told ABC News' "This Week" Sunday that there was "enormous evidence" supporting that unproven theory, before shifting slightly Wednesday to say there's "significant" evidence, but the U.S. doesn't have "certainty" yet.

But in interviews Thursday, Pompeo shifted again, telling a conservative talk radio host, "There's evidence that it came from somewhere in the vicinity of the lab, but that could be wrong."

"We've seen evidence that it came from the lab. That may not be the case," he said in a second talk radio interview.

oops, has Trump heard that he's vacillating?

[RedFromMI]

Five People. One Test. This Is How You Get There.

Nebraska is testing more people with the tests it has. The technique is simple.

By Jordan Ellenberg

Mr. Ellenberg is a professor of mathematics.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/opin ... tner=IFTTT

Only works if positive test rate is small (ideally like 2%), but you combine samples together in small groups (5 to 8), keeping some material in reserve.

Groups that test negative clear all of the group. Retest all of group (with the withheld portion) to find out who is positive.

[old salt]

Spain, Italy & Germany are opening up. Ask your friends in Lyon if France is yet.

They were supposed to open up on the 6th. I will ask....actually it was the 11th. I sent a WhatsApp

France begins opening up next Mon. 2 zones. Paris & NE corner slower than the rest of the country.

I had not heard back. Thanks. Set of friends in Lyon, Neully, and near the Swiss border.

Looks like Lyon might be just inside the green zone.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200504/france ... partements

[old salt]

At least Trump's valet isn't spitting on his cheeseburger.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Spain, Italy & Germany are opening up. Ask your friends in Lyon if France is yet.

They were supposed to open up on the 6th. I will ask....actually it was the 11th. I sent a WhatsApp

France begins opening up next Mon. 2 zones. Paris & NE corner slower than the rest of the country.

I had not heard back. Thanks. Set of friends in Lyon, Neully, and near the Swiss border.

Looks like Lyon might be just inside the green zone.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200504/france ... partements

I hope so. The plan was for things to open up on the 11th. Seems like they have a systematic approach. We will see how it goes.

[DocBarrister]

Fair enough.

And don’t get me wrong. I’m not excited about “only” 200k deaths. At this point, it’s here and it’s a risk.

The “unintended consequences“ are being counted as Part of those covid deaths- people who had other underlying conditions or couldn’t get a bed due to someone else taking the spot. Those are part of the 200k numbers.

But what is being ignored are the unintended consequences of keeping people at home, people afraid to get regular treatments or needed surgeries or life-threatening ailments checked out at ERs. Cancers going undiagnosed, mental illness, depression, and of course the financial side, families and businesses in ruin. That is a risk too IMO. And a toll of covid.

I’d argue that those unintended consequences and terrible scenarios probably outnumber the worst case death scenarios. And those can be prevented by lifting restrictions and imploring people to go about their lives in a new, different and safer manner. But let them know that there are still risks.

+1

+2

It sucks all around, and there are no right moves, given the lack of testing. Hopefully, two things happen.

1. Testing catches up. Testing helps let us know how deadly the disease is.
2. This virus is far more contagious than we thought, and therefore it's far less deadly than we thought...and places like Italy and NY simply got hit all at once.

Exactly a fan...

I can’t even begin to express my disgust at this “discussion”.

These are false choices being discussed here. Yes, we’re headed to over 100,000 deaths. There is nothing that will stop that now. However, there is no reason we should ever get close to 200,000 deaths.

Advocating the opening up of the economy now, when the pandemic is still going strong, is little more than complicity in mass deaths. No, those “unintended consequences” deaths from mitigation efforts will not outnumber the excess deaths from the pandemic if we loosen those restrictions.

Americans don’t have to die if we only instituted a massive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine program. The United States has the financial resources to implement such a program. We have the manpower. We have the manufacturing capability. All we lack is the political will because a malignant narcissist is in the Oval Office and doesn’t want testing to drive up the case and death numbers.

We are quite literally witnessing mass homicide on a historic scale ... and those of you who buy into the false choices framed by Trump are only aiding this atrocity.

We have to keep trying.

South Korea is still implementing substantial mitigation efforts at great cost to their economy, because they are still fighting to keep their death toll under 300.

THREE HUNDRED.

And here you are discussing 200,000 deaths as being somehow an acceptable sacrifice.

Are you kidding me?

What is wrong with you ^#%*+%# people?


DocBarrister

[old salt]

Comparing the task of testing & tracing in S Korea vs the US was unrealistic at the outset & remains so.

So simplistic.

[DocBarrister]

Comparing the task of testing & tracing in S Korea vs the US was unrealistic at the outset & remains so.

So simplistic.

Nonsense. That’s an excuse without any basis whatsoever.

What’s the issue? Population? South Korea is not a small nation, with 51 million people.

Distrust of the government? South Koreans distrust their government more than Americans do. They locked one president up in prison and drove a second to suicide.

Legal limitations? Nonsense. Coronavirus is not the first contagion where mandatory reporting, isolation, and
contact tracing have been done.

Is it some misplaced belief that the South Koreans are more servile or meek when facing government mandates? Are you kidding me? They overthrew a dictatorship in the 1980s and student protests are routinely violent.

Is it some notion that the U.S. is more pro-business? Please, the massive Korean chaebols make U.S. corporations look like hippy communes from the 1960s.

If there are two main differences between South Korea and the U.S.:

(1) South Korea doesn’t have 60 million people stupid enough to vote for Donald Trump; and

(2) South Korea isn’t led by a moronic, evil, malignant narcissist like Donald Trump.

Ok ... so, considering the last two factors, maybe you’re actually right.

Never mind ....

DocBarrister

[njbill]

At least Trump's valet isn't spitting on his cheeseburger.

That we all can agree upon. Trump wouldn’t let ANYONE within spittin’ distance of his cheeseburger.

[a fan]

(1) South Korea doesn’t have 60 million people stupid enough to vote for Donald Trump; and

(2) South Korea isn’t led by a moronic, evil, malignant narcissist like Donald Trump.

And the countries that have higher death rates than the US? What's their excuse? Five countries in the EU plus the UK have higher death rates than we do.

NYC has a population density that's twice what Seoul's is, btw. That doesn't help.

And S Korea is the same freaking size as Minnesota.....it's just a "shade" easier to manage one single monoculture that size, than 50 entirely different States all with entirely different populations and cultures....all in 3.8 million square miles, instead of S Korea's 37,000 square miles.

[tech37]

At least Trump's valet isn't spitting on his cheeseburger.

That we all can agree upon. Trump wouldn’t let ANYONE within spittin’ distance of his cheeseburger.

[calourie]

Comparing the task of testing & tracing in S Korea vs the US was unrealistic at the outset & remains so.

So simplistic.

Nonsense. That’s an excuse without any basis whatsoever.

What’s the issue? Population? South Korea is not a small nation, with 51 million people.

Distrust of the government? South Koreans distrust their government more than Americans do. They locked one president up in prison and drove a second to suicide.

Legal limitations? Nonsense. Coronavirus is not the first contagion where mandatory reporting, isolation, and
contact tracing have been done.

Is it some misplaced belief that the South Koreans are more servile or meek when facing government mandates? Are you kidding me? They overthrew a dictatorship in the 1980s and student protests are routinely violent.

Is it some notion that the U.S. is more pro-business? Please, the massive Korean chaebols make U.S. corporations look like hippy communes from the 1960s.

If there are two main differences between South Korea and the U.S.:

(1) South Korea doesn’t have 60 million people stupid enough to vote for Donald Trump; and

(2) South Korea isn’t led by a moronic, evil, malignant narcissist like Donald Trump.

Ok ... so, considering the last two factors, maybe you’re actually right.

Never mind ....

DocBarrister

So beyond Doc's political reasons, what else is prohibiting us from upping our testing game? If South Korea can do it, why can't we? Can't we buy the the Korean testing tchnology or at least pay them for advice on how to make it happen? It would appear that a few tens of billions tossed at the testing solution would save trillions in terms of getting the economy back on track effectively as opposed to haltingly. It would also buy us more time to come up with a safe and effective vaccine. Come on America, we can do this.