All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[Kismet]

From the YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS STUFF UP FILES

During DOPUS visit to Honeywell (sans masks again) yesterday the music piped into the factory floor was

LIVE & LET DIE

Only the best people for the stable genius.

If true, an awful choice (awful song to begin with IMO but I digress). Why play music at all? Fing stupid. Was anyone wearing masks at Honeywell?

Okay, the CNBC article states that Honeywell told WH that masks weren't required. But all the production line workers were wearing them. IMO, Trump should have worn one too, if for nothing else a symbolic gesture and certainly in solidarity with the workers. They just keep missing obvious positive PR opportunities.

Not to mention that the facility manufactures, of all things, MASKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[RedFromMI]

Distinguishing the NYC Metro Outbreak from the Rest of the Country

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/di ... he-country

From the beginning of the COVID19 epidemic in the United States the epidemic has been dominated by an outbreak in the New York City metropolitan area. That outbreak is distinct from the progression of the disease in the rest of the country. It has its own intensity, timeline, arc. The New York City metro is an integrated economic, transportation and population reality – and thus a distinct epidemiological reality – even though it is spread over three different states. So to understand the NYC metro outbreak and the progression in the rest of the country it is helpful to separate them out visually.

For point of comparison, here is the nation as a whole.

The uptick in testing which starts in the last week of April broadly lines up with the rise in cases. A closer look at individual states and the percentage of tests coming back positive suggests the growing number of cases is a mix of actual epidemic growth and the growth in testing. There’s no simple way to disaggregate these two realities.

I included the last quote to note that number of tests keep rising, so you have a difficulty knowing whether the increased number of tests are responsible for detecting cases previously not seen due to lack of testing, or actual case numbers rising.

[RedFromMI]

The urgent quest for a coronavirus treatment involves door-to-door blood collection and a llama named Winter
Antibody treatments could be a ‘bridge’ to a vaccine

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/ ... ed-winter/

The global search for a treatment targeting the novel coronavirus has led to an unlikely potential savior: a cocoa-colored llama named Winter, whose blood could hold a weapon to blunt the virus.

She lives at a research farm in Belgium with about 130 other llamas and alpacas. And like all of them, she produces a special class of disease-fighting antibodies — tiny, even by antibody standards — that show early promise in laboratory tests in blocking the novel coronavirus from entering and infecting cells.

In a paper published Tuesday in the journal Cell, an international team of scientists reports that these petite antibodies, harvested from Winter’s blood, were used to engineer a new antibody that binds to the spiky proteins that stud the surface of the novel coronavirus, “neutralizing” its insidious effect. The study, though preliminary, points to a possible treatment for covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, if the results hold up in animal and human studies.

Winter the llama is the cuddly face of a broader — and urgent — scientific quest to create coronavirus drugs inspired by the targeted responses mustered by the immune system. Winter’s antibodies are a niche kind that are called nanobodies and are prized by researchers because of their ability to get into nooks and crannies and because they are slow to degrade in the body.

With a widely available vaccine probably at least a year away, antibody therapies have become, in the eyes of some experts, one of the most promising weapons against covid-19, which has killed more than 250,000 people worldwide.
AD

Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked in the newsletter are free to access.

Wayne Marasco, an infectious disease specialist at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute who developed experimental antibody therapies against close cousins of the current coronavirus, said he thinks the approach could be a “game changer.” A single dose could potentially act to treat the disease or to prevent it for months. Former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb wrote in the Wall Street Journal last month that such drugs “may be the best chance for a meaningful near-term success.”

The antibodies inspired by Winter are still far from being tested in people. Belgian researchers are only now starting preclinical trials on hamsters.

Rest of the article lists and explains several other antibody approaches - looking for both a treatment, and a near-term short-lived preventative (working for maybe a few months).

[Brooklyn]

Trump Supporters Violently Protest VS Kaepernick's Peaceful Protest (COMPARISON)






Commentator writes:


These are the people who wave Confederate and Nazi flags and say that's patriotic. That's that I'm white and I can do that. They came to State Capitol buildings with AR-15s. We saw what reactions was when the Black Panthers went to Sacramento California.

[seacoaster]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

Where was Fauci, The CDC, NIH, Pelosi, House and Senate Intelligence committees on that very thing.

This virus has yet to peak in some places.

Your insistence something could have been done earlier only suggests we should have hibernated a couple weeks earlier than we did.

I am only insisting that the President, who receives (or has available to him, anyway) the President's Daily Brief and has immediate access to all manner of intelligence reports from our own intelligence services and friendly intelligence services who might still be willing to share information and insight with this Administration, be held accountable for his specific conduct.

Your suggestion -- that certain relevant agencies, the Speaker of the House (but not the Senate Majority Leader?), and House and Senate intelligence committees should have acted somehow and some way on their own, without Executive Branch legal authorization, planning, and coordination -- is among the most fatuous and hypocritical of your statements on these boards over the many years you have screeched like a little girl about Obama's reckless action without the consent and cooperation of the Congress and the three years you have given this incompetent, incurious, feckless toad your blind devotion. Sorry, Button Buster, this is the spot where the buck stops with Trump and Jared...and you.

[RedFromMI]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

Where was Fauci, The CDC, NIH, Pelosi, House and Senate Intelligence committees on that very thing.

This virus has yet to peak in some places.

Your insistence something could have been done earlier only suggests we should have hibernated a couple weeks earlier than we did.

I am only insisting that the President, who receives (or has available to him, anyway) the President's Daily Brief and has immediate access to all manner of intelligence reports from our own intelligence services and friendly intelligence services who might still be willing to share information and insight with this Administration, be held accountable for his specific conduct.

Your suggestion -- that certain relevant agencies, the Speaker of the House (but not the Senate Majority Leader?), and House and Senate intelligence committees should have acted somehow and some way on their own, without Executive Branch legal authorization, planning, and coordination -- is among the most fatuous and hypocritical of your statements on these boards over the many years you have screeched like a little girl about Obama's reckless action without the consent and cooperation of the Congress and the three years you have given this incompetent, incurious, feckless toad your blind devotion. Sorry, Button Buster, this is the spot where the buck stops with Trump and Jared...and you.

And if we had hibernated earlier (two weeks) the current death toll would be less than a fifth what it is now. And we probably would be opening up in more places...

[a fan]

one of my problems with the test and trace strategy is from what i can glean, we are in no way, no shape to be running 330 million tests per week.
just as far as production goes:
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1199176
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/thermo- ... -week.html
those are very large companies. ramping up production to a mere tiny fraction of what is proposed. and then there's the small matter of the other 7 billion people out there.

is it feasible? i have no idea, but kind of looks like a long shot ... some (long) time into the future. we were debating 300k vs 1m per day not long ago. and the head of testing was saying 5m per day was not reasonably realistic. so now 50 m per day is getting out into public hands and executed bc it's a nice wish list item? i don't think $$ is the problem. capacity is.

We wrecked the economy so that we could build our capacity. And we didn't do it. We're going to pay a steep price for that, imho.

The part that folks don't get is: what happens when you go back to work, and because we can't test people before heading into that office building or restaurant......you get an outbreak.

Guess what? That business is now F'ed. Done. Stick a fork in it. Who is going to set foot in that building if they know it's compromised? And what does that business do if its workforce is now sidelined?

Is there bailout money for this? Nope. So as a business owner or manager, that's the math you have to do. So if you have ANY choice in the matter, and you aren't a total idiot, what are you going to do as a decision maker?

That's right. Keep your people home. And the economic damage will continue.

Trump and FoxNation STILL think that the government is "in the way" of businesses opening. As it stands now, it's flying blind, and playing Russian Roulette at the same time. We have to cross our fingers, and hope that the virus is less deadly than we think it is as of today.

Not exactly what I'd call a sound plan. So when you see the PeteB's of the world heading out to restaurants---you just have to hope with all the hope you can muster that we don't see breakouts and spikes. And if we don't? We're good.

But if we do......

[cradleandshoot]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

Where was Fauci, The CDC, NIH, Pelosi, House and Senate Intelligence committees on that very thing.

This virus has yet to peak in some places.

Your insistence something could have been done earlier only suggests we should have hibernated a couple weeks earlier than we did.

I am only insisting that the President, who receives (or has available to him, anyway) the President's Daily Brief and has immediate access to all manner of intelligence reports from our own intelligence services and friendly intelligence services who might still be willing to share information and insight with this Administration, be held accountable for his specific conduct.

Your suggestion -- that certain relevant agencies, the Speaker of the House (but not the Senate Majority Leader?), and House and Senate intelligence committees should have acted somehow and some way on their own, without Executive Branch legal authorization, planning, and coordination -- is among the most fatuous and hypocritical of your statements on these boards over the many years you have screeched like a little girl about Obama's reckless action without the consent and cooperation of the Congress and the three years you have given this incompetent, incurious, feckless toad your blind devotion. Sorry, Button Buster, this is the spot where the buck stops with Trump and Jared...and you.

Just to be extra safe the POTUS could put a second mask over his hair. There has to be dangerous stuff living in that orange bird nest.

[RedFromMI]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

Where was Fauci, The CDC, NIH, Pelosi, House and Senate Intelligence committees on that very thing.

This virus has yet to peak in some places.

Your insistence something could have been done earlier only suggests we should have hibernated a couple weeks earlier than we did.

I am only insisting that the President, who receives (or has available to him, anyway) the President's Daily Brief and has immediate access to all manner of intelligence reports from our own intelligence services and friendly intelligence services who might still be willing to share information and insight with this Administration, be held accountable for his specific conduct.

Your suggestion -- that certain relevant agencies, the Speaker of the House (but not the Senate Majority Leader?), and House and Senate intelligence committees should have acted somehow and some way on their own, without Executive Branch legal authorization, planning, and coordination -- is among the most fatuous and hypocritical of your statements on these boards over the many years you have screeched like a little girl about Obama's reckless action without the consent and cooperation of the Congress and the three years you have given this incompetent, incurious, feckless toad your blind devotion. Sorry, Button Buster, this is the spot where the buck stops with Trump and Jared...and you.

Just to be extra safe the POTUS could put a second mask over his hair. There has to be dangerous stuff living in that orange bird nest.

Gotta be locked into place with all that hair spray...

[Typical Lax Dad]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

Where was Fauci, The CDC, NIH, Pelosi, House and Senate Intelligence committees on that very thing.

This virus has yet to peak in some places.

Your insistence something could have been done earlier only suggests we should have hibernated a couple weeks earlier than we did.

I am only insisting that the President, who receives (or has available to him, anyway) the President's Daily Brief and has immediate access to all manner of intelligence reports from our own intelligence services and friendly intelligence services who might still be willing to share information and insight with this Administration, be held accountable for his specific conduct.

Your suggestion -- that certain relevant agencies, the Speaker of the House (but not the Senate Majority Leader?), and House and Senate intelligence committees should have acted somehow and some way on their own, without Executive Branch legal authorization, planning, and coordination -- is among the most fatuous and hypocritical of your statements on these boards over the many years you have screeched like a little girl about Obama's reckless action without the consent and cooperation of the Congress and the three years you have given this incompetent, incurious, feckless toad your blind devotion. Sorry, Button Buster, this is the spot where the buck stops with Trump and Jared...and you.

And if we had hibernated earlier (two weeks) the current death toll would be less than a fifth what it is now. And we probably would be opening up in more places...

This is what I have been saying. Our government officials were slow to react. It was a choice. Now we are paying the price...... and to make it worse, we were two months behind the world, but we are "opening" up early based on a hope, prayer and dumb luck. I would rather open two weeks too late. We will potentially save more in the long run (people and economically).

[Peter Brown]

one of my problems with the test and trace strategy is from what i can glean, we are in no way, no shape to be running 330 million tests per week.
just as far as production goes:
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1199176
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/thermo- ... -week.html
those are very large companies. ramping up production to a mere tiny fraction of what is proposed. and then there's the small matter of the other 7 billion people out there.

is it feasible? i have no idea, but kind of looks like a long shot ... some (long) time into the future. we were debating 300k vs 1m per day not long ago. and the head of testing was saying 5m per day was not reasonably realistic. so now 50 m per day is getting out into public hands and executed bc it's a nice wish list item? i don't think $$ is the problem. capacity is.

We wrecked the economy so that we could build our capacity. And we didn't do it. We're going to pay a steep price for that, imho.

The part that folks don't get is: what happens when you go back to work, and because we can't test people before heading into that office building or restaurant......you get an outbreak.

Guess what? That business is now F'ed. Done. Stick a fork in it. Who is going to set foot in that building if they know it's compromised? And what does that business do if its workforce is now sidelined?

Is there bailout money for this? Nope. So as a business owner or manager, that's the math you have to do. So if you have ANY choice in the matter, and you aren't a total idiot, what are you going to do as a decision maker?

That's right. Keep your people home. And the economic damage will continue.

Trump and FoxNation STILL think that the government is "in the way" of businesses opening. As it stands now, it's flying blind, and playing Russian Roulette at the same time. We have to cross our fingers, and hope that the virus is less deadly than we think it is as of today.

Not exactly what I'd call a sound plan. So when you see the PeteB's of the world heading out to restaurants---you just have to hope with all the hope you can muster that we don't see breakouts and spikes. And if we don't? We're good.

But if we do......

Beyond nonsensical. I thought you liked facts and data?

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/he ... 2be1cf2dc1

Protect the elderly; institute policies like DeSantis did in Florida; everyone else is good to go.

[RedFromMI]

Beyond nonsensical. I thought you liked facts and data?

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/he ... 2be1cf2dc1

Protect the elderly; institute policies like DeSantis did in Florida; everyone else is good to go.

The nonsense is that DeSantis had much to do with what happened in Florida. South Florida began closing up mid-March. Not because of DeSantis - but because the local/regional politicians started on their own to make things happen. What DeSantis did (to his credit at that time) is not get in the way.

But since then - late to the party with restrictions on rest of state (including letting some Spring Breakers take infections all over the eastern US). Covering up death toll numbers by ordering coroners to not put COVID on death certificates in some circumstances. Hiding infection numbers at nursing homes/retirement homes.

And being generally incompetent (who can forget him not knowing how to put on a friggin mask...).

[Peter Brown]

Beyond nonsensical. I thought you liked facts and data?

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/he ... 2be1cf2dc1

Protect the elderly; institute policies like DeSantis did in Florida; everyone else is good to go.

The nonsense is that DeSantis had much to do with what happened in Florida. South Florida began closing up mid-March. Not because of DeSantis - but because the local/regional politicians started on their own to make things happen. What DeSantis did (to his credit at that time) is not get in the way.

But since then - late to the party with restrictions on rest of state (including letting some Spring Breakers take infections all over the eastern US). Covering up death toll numbers by ordering coroners to not put COVID on death certificates in some circumstances. Hiding infection numbers at nursing homes/retirement homes.

And being generally incompetent (who can forget him not knowing how to put on a friggin mask...).

"DDS", not for dentists, but DeSantis Derangement Syndrome. Southeast Florida is the only part of this state which consistently fails to do anything positive for the state; this pandemic is no change. Miami-Dade and Broward are almost beyond repair.

Learn some facts about what DeSantis has done; 3rd in country in total testing; 75 deaths per million; insanely good numbers relative to any other state.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... record-low

[wgdsr]

one of my problems with the test and trace strategy is from what i can glean, we are in no way, no shape to be running 330 million tests per week.
just as far as production goes:
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1199176
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/thermo- ... -week.html
those are very large companies. ramping up production to a mere tiny fraction of what is proposed. and then there's the small matter of the other 7 billion people out there.

is it feasible? i have no idea, but kind of looks like a long shot ... some (long) time into the future. we were debating 300k vs 1m per day not long ago. and the head of testing was saying 5m per day was not reasonably realistic. so now 50 m per day is getting out into public hands and executed bc it's a nice wish list item? i don't think $$ is the problem. capacity is.

We wrecked the economy so that we could build our capacity. And we didn't do it. We're going to pay a steep price for that, imho.

The part that folks don't get is: what happens when you go back to work, and because we can't test people before heading into that office building or restaurant......you get an outbreak.

Guess what? That business is now F'ed. Done. Stick a fork in it. Who is going to set foot in that building if they know it's compromised? And what does that business do if its workforce is now sidelined?

Is there bailout money for this? Nope. So as a business owner or manager, that's the math you have to do. So if you have ANY choice in the matter, and you aren't a total idiot, what are you going to do as a decision maker?

That's right. Keep your people home. And the economic damage will continue.

Trump and FoxNation STILL think that the government is "in the way" of businesses opening. As it stands now, it's flying blind, and playing Russian Roulette at the same time. We have to cross our fingers, and hope that the virus is less deadly than we think it is as of today.

Not exactly what I'd call a sound plan. So when you see the PeteB's of the world heading out to restaurants---you just have to hope with all the hope you can muster that we don't see breakouts and spikes. And if we don't? We're good.

But if we do......

there is a complicated calculus going on (as you well know), and the reality is this calculus doesn't have a preordained answer. many people think they know the answer, but they don't because they cannot.

i don't share your opinion that we slammed brakes on the economy to build capacity. and even if we did, i truly don't believe people understand the scale necessary to have that capacity. much less execution. willingness, we already know about.

we slammed the brakes because of the unknown, and to get answers. of course not be overwhelmed. to live to fight with more tools, info (what we call "data"... hah). so much is still unknown and will only evolve, but the question next is how we use what we know. and maybe most importantly, how well our people react.

[RedFromMI]

2 Utah County businesses told staff to ignore COVID-19 guidelines, resulting in 68 positive cases

https://www.heraldextra.com/news/local/ ... ef5b5.html

Nearly half of the employees of a Utah County business tested positive for COVID-19 after the business instructed employees to not follow quarantine guidelines and required staff who had tested positive to report to work, according to a written statement from county executives.

The statement, which was released Monday evening and was signed by Utah County Commissioners Tanner Ainge, Bill Lee and Nathan Ivie and the mayors of each city in the county, said that 48% of employees of the unnamed business tested positive for COVID-19.

Between this business and another in a different geographic region of the county that “did not follow COVID-19 best practices,” 68 employees tested positive for coronavirus, Utah County executives said.

“During the tracing contacts conducted by the Utah County Health Department and Utah Department of Utah, we found these businesses instructed employees to not follow quarantine guidelines after exposure to a confirmed case at work and required employees with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis to still report to work,” the statement said. “This is completely unacceptable and resulted in a temporary full closure for one business along with heightened requirements for future cleaning and inspections.”

Carrie Bennett, chronic disease prevention program manager for the Utah County Health Department, said on Tuesday that the Health Department would not release the names of the businesses or information about the nature of the services they provide due to privacy concerns.

According to Bennett, contact tracing is a method of monitoring people who have tested positive for COVID-19 and identifying who they have been in contact with since contracting the virus. Through contact tracing, the Utah County Health Department was able to identify the two businesses.

County executives criticized these businesses and others that failed to follow guidelines for “putting employees, their families and ultimately the health of the community at risk,” adding that employers that don’t follow best practices also “jeopardize Utah County efforts to reopen businesses affected by the pandemic.”

Utah county seat is Provo, UT.

They really ought to explain why they are not releasing the information as to which businesses are involved.

[6ftstick]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

Where was Fauci, The CDC, NIH, Pelosi, House and Senate Intelligence committees on that very thing.

This virus has yet to peak in some places.

Your insistence something could have been done earlier only suggests we should have hibernated a couple weeks earlier than we did.

I am only insisting that the President, who receives (or has available to him, anyway) the President's Daily Brief and has immediate access to all manner of intelligence reports from our own intelligence services and friendly intelligence services who might still be willing to share information and insight with this Administration, be held accountable for his specific conduct.

Your suggestion -- that certain relevant agencies, the Speaker of the House (but not the Senate Majority Leader?), and House and Senate intelligence committees should have acted somehow and some way on their own, without Executive Branch legal authorization, planning, and coordination -- is among the most fatuous and hypocritical of your statements on these boards over the many years you have screeched like a little girl about Obama's reckless action without the consent and cooperation of the Congress and the three years you have given this incompetent, incurious, feckless toad your blind devotion. Sorry, Button Buster, this is the spot where the buck stops with Trump and Jared...and you.

You need to refresh your understanding of the three branches of government and their specific responsibilities.

[a fan]

there is a complicated calculus going on (as you well know), and the reality is this calculus doesn't have a preordained answer. many people think they know the answer, but they don't because they cannot.

Agree completely. There is no such thing as the right answer when it comes

i don't share your opinion that we slammed brakes on the economy to build capacity.

Sure we did. We're short on everything. Why do you think I've been working for coming up on two months straight making hand santizer? That was the ENTIRE point to shutting down. Capacity.

-free up beds, and allow the National Guard to build/plan place to take folks if/when hospitals are overwhelmed
-allow more stockpile of masks and other PPE. Hospitals don't have anywhere near enough p95's, let alone for folks going back to work.
-build more touchless thermometers , both handheld and stationary so building security can check for fevers
-testing, so we can find and isolate asymptomatic folks before they're allowed to spread it
-get our food supply in order, and all the shifting logistics
-more time to get our vaccine infrastructure together. If we find a cure, do we have the ability to mass produce the vaccine? I'm betting no. Someone needs to build that infrastructure.


If we haven't been doing these things? We're royally F'ed if the disease spreads because of reopening. Our current hopes are entirely pinned to the idea that this virus isn't as bad as we thought it was 2 months ago. Not exactly a comforting thought, but here's hoping....

and even if we did, i truly don't believe people understand the scale necessary to have that capacity. much less execution. willingness, we already know about.

I do. I designed and operate a factory. Brother has a BS in Industrial Engineering out of Northwestern. This is what we do as a company.

we slammed the brakes because of the unknown, and to get answers. of course not be overwhelmed. to live to fight with more tools, info (what we call "data"... hah). so much is still unknown and will only evolve, but the question next is how we use what we know. and maybe most importantly, how well our people react.

Yes. But the biggest thing is that with each passing day, Docs learn how to fight it, and keep people out of ICU. And we edge closer to a vaccine/effective treatment.

[seacoaster]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

Where was Fauci, The CDC, NIH, Pelosi, House and Senate Intelligence committees on that very thing.

This virus has yet to peak in some places.

Your insistence something could have been done earlier only suggests we should have hibernated a couple weeks earlier than we did.

I am only insisting that the President, who receives (or has available to him, anyway) the President's Daily Brief and has immediate access to all manner of intelligence reports from our own intelligence services and friendly intelligence services who might still be willing to share information and insight with this Administration, be held accountable for his specific conduct.

Your suggestion -- that certain relevant agencies, the Speaker of the House (but not the Senate Majority Leader?), and House and Senate intelligence committees should have acted somehow and some way on their own, without Executive Branch legal authorization, planning, and coordination -- is among the most fatuous and hypocritical of your statements on these boards over the many years you have screeched like a little girl about Obama's reckless action without the consent and cooperation of the Congress and the three years you have given this incompetent, incurious, feckless toad your blind devotion. Sorry, Button Buster, this is the spot where the buck stops with Trump and Jared...and you.

You need to refresh your understanding of the three branches of government and their specific responsibilities.

Yeah, sure Buttons. Nice response. Make sure you get enough O2 up there.

[kramerica.inc]

So take it for what it's worth.

Been deleted from Youtube a few times now.

For whatever reason. This is what truth OR disinformation looks like:

[ggait]

Basic but grim arithmetic implies that if we move from lockdown even 20 percent of the way back to normal life, the epidemic will again be potentially explosive. (For example, if we are currently at an R0 of 0.9, and assuming that the R0 without any distancing is 2.5, then returning to 20 percent of normal would take the R0 to 1.22, clearly in the danger zone.) This is very worrying as the president and many other political leaders seem to be encouraging substantial reversals in lockdown policies.

Summers is right that there is currently a pretty small operating range for re-opening at this point.

Out here in Colorado, the phase 1 "stay at home" order reduced social activity down to 25% of normal. So 75% social distancing was achieved. We just started phase 2 "safer at home." The goal for phase 2 is to allow 65% social distancing (i.e. 35% of normal). It is not all that different.

The CO models say 65% social distancing would avoid a second peak. 55% SD would still preserve ICU capacity, but would create a second peak in late September. And if you miss the targets by a little bit, then it heads south.

FWIW, the models assume some level of increased testing but not contact tracing measures.