All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[MDlaxfan76]

Thoroughly stated.
However, it does require reading comprehension.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Opinion article from Lawrence Summers in the Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

"When it comes to crafting foreign policy, designing anti-poverty programs or implementing measures to combat climate change, economists have an understandable tendency to feel as though the economic aspects of the debate receive short shrift. The opposite is true when it comes to the pandemic. If anything, the United States is in danger of overemphasizing the impact of the crisis on the economy — and massively underinvesting in the health measures that are ultimately most important.

We are embarked on a policy path of opening things up without major complementary measures, an approach based more on wishful thinking than on logic or evidence. In guidance issued last month, the Trump administration stated this relaxation should only begin when the number of new cases daily had declined for 14 days. This criterion has not been met for the country as a whole or in many states, yet reopening has begun.

A simple calculation illustrates why this path is so dangerous. The most important parameter for understanding an epidemic is what epidemiologists label R0 (R-nought) — the number of people infected by a single individual with the virus. If R0 is greater than 1, an epidemic explodes; if it is less than 1, it diminishes and eventually ceases to be a problem. Experts estimate that before lockdown R0 was about 2.5, which is why lockdown was necessary. They now estimate, in part because case counts have been stable, that R0 is a bit below 1 — perhaps 0.9 or, on an optimistic view, 0.8.

Basic but grim arithmetic implies that if we move from lockdown even 20 percent of the way back to normal life, the epidemic will again be potentially explosive. (For example, if we are currently at an R0 of 0.9, and assuming that the R0 without any distancing is 2.5, then returning to 20 percent of normal would take the R0 to 1.22, clearly in the danger zone.) This is very worrying as the president and many other political leaders seem to be encouraging substantial reversals in lockdown policies.

It’s conceivable this will work out, at least in the short run. For a few months, summer heat and humidity may reduce transmissibility. The virus may mutate in benign ways. The population that has not yet been infected may be less susceptible on average to the virus and less contagious when they catch it.

But don’t count on it; hope is not a strategy. These factors have been operating in recent weeks, and yet R0 has remained stubbornly close to 1. That suggests it is unlikely that any of these factors are significant enough to change the basic conclusion: Substantial opening up without new measures to reduce transmission is likely to unleash major new waves of disease, sooner or later.

Some might believe this is a price worth paying for the economic benefits the country would reap. After all, on a rough estimate covid-19 is reducing the gross domestic product by 20 percent — $80 billion dollars a week. The problem is that the main constraint on economic activity is not mandatory lockdowns. Rather, whatever is technically permitted, people will be reluctant to resume normal behavior for fear of being infected. The likely result: a resurgent pandemic, dramatically lowered economic activity, or both simultaneously.

Moreover, this economic slowdown is a price we do not have to pay. We could substantially reduce transmission, save lives and permit the safe acceleration of reopening — if we are willing to commit the necessary resources. These would be small compared to the economic damage the virus is wreaking and the amounts we are paying to try to compensate for the losses.

The most promising strategy is establishing a system of pervasive targeted testing. If we were able to identify individuals who have potentially been infected, then quarantine those who test positive, we could substantially reduce the transmission rate. Suppose this required testing every American every week and that each test cost $20. (Both are pessimistic assumptions.) The $6.6 billion price tag would be less than one-tenth of the weekly cost of the Cares Act.

Similarly, investments in contact tracers for those who identified with covid-19 would have an extraordinarily high return. Suppose the total cost of a contact tracer is $400 daily, and that 300,000 tracers are needed to follow up on all newly discovered positive cases. The cost would only be $600 million a week, less than 1 percent of the cost of the Cares Act.

The same kinds of calculations make the case for much more spending on masks, on potential therapies and on pursuing production of plausible but still unproven vaccine candidates.

Amounts of money that are small compared to the economic losses we are suffering are immense relative to battling the virus. They should be the first priority going forward."

Yep.

[tech37]

Where is Cuomo on this?

https://abc7ny.com/ny-nursing-home-deat ... s/6153135/

ALBANY, New York (WABC) -- New York state is reporting more than 1,700 previously undisclosed deaths at nursing homes and adult care facilities as the state faces scrutiny over how it has protected vulnerable residents during the coronavirus pandemic.

A close friend's dad just somehow survived CV-19 in a Westchester nursing home...he is a lucky soul. My friend and his sister were not allowed to see him of course but they could not even online chat with him while he was ill...go figure.

[6ftstick]

Where is Cuomo on this?

https://abc7ny.com/ny-nursing-home-deat ... s/6153135/

ALBANY, New York (WABC) -- New York state is reporting more than 1,700 previously undisclosed deaths at nursing homes and adult care facilities as the state faces scrutiny over how it has protected vulnerable residents during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/nursing-h ... uomo-says/

[seacoaster]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

[Typical Lax Dad]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

What did the President know and when did he know it.

[6ftstick]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

Where was Fauci, The CDC, NIH, Pelosi, House and Senate Intelligence committees on that very thing.

This virus has yet to peak in some places.

Your insistence something could have been done earlier only suggests we should have hibernated a couple weeks earlier than we did.

[Kismet]

From the YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS STUFF UP FILES

During DOPUS visit to Honeywell (sans masks again) yesterday the music piped into the factory floor was

LIVE & LET DIE

Only the best people for the stable genius.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Where was the President on this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArdenFarhi/s ... 6774096896

Where was Fauci, The CDC, NIH, Pelosi, House and Senate Intelligence committees on that very thing.

This virus has yet to peak in some places.

Your insistence something could have been done earlier only suggests we should have hibernated a couple weeks earlier than we did.

[MDlaxfan76]

Where is Cuomo on this?

https://abc7ny.com/ny-nursing-home-deat ... s/6153135/

ALBANY, New York (WABC) -- New York state is reporting more than 1,700 previously undisclosed deaths at nursing homes and adult care facilities as the state faces scrutiny over how it has protected vulnerable residents during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/nursing-h ... uomo-says/

YIKES, they actually quote him as saying the exact opposite of what they are claiming. Talk about awful reporting!

NO, if a nursing home accepts a patient, they have to provide adequate care...but if they don't believe they can do so they MUST ask for that person to be transferred, either by arranging the transfer themselves or asking for the State's help. New York has set up COVID only facilities to take such patients in.

But if the nursing home accepts the patient and revenue that goes with the patient, they need to actually provide adequate care. Ohh my, what a scandal!

[MDlaxfan76]

From the YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS STUFF UP FILES

During DOPUS visit to Honeywell (sans masks again) yesterday the music piped into the factory floor was

LIVE & LET DIE

Only the best people for the stable genius.

I wonder whether that tune was arranged by POTUS' staff (yes, they could be that dump and tasteless) but it could have been a Honeywell employee PO'd at Trump's insistence that he and those around him wouldn't wear a mask despite company policy.

If so, clever!

[cradleandshoot]

Thoroughly stated.
However, it does require reading comprehension.

Funny, my wife says targeting is the new buzz word. The powers that be where she works are trying to figure our how the heck they are suppose to implement it as they jump through the 1000 government hoops so they are cleared to do procedures again. The system is the poster child for FUBAR at this time. Too many chiefs and not enough Indians. When I hear that time worn expression I'm with the government and I'm here to help. That defines the colossal gubmint screw up on all levels this virus has brought about.

[wgdsr]

one of my problems with the test and trace strategy is from what i can glean, we are in no way, no shape to be running 330 million tests per week.
just as far as production goes:
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1199176
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/thermo- ... -week.html
those are very large companies. ramping up production to a mere tiny fraction of what is proposed. and then there's the small matter of the other 7 billion people out there.

is it feasible? i have no idea, but kind of looks like a long shot ... some (long) time into the future. we were debating 300k vs 1m per day not long ago. and the head of testing was saying 5m per day was not reasonably realistic. so now 50 m per day is getting out into public hands and executed bc it's a nice wish list item? i don't think $$ is the problem. capacity is.

[Typical Lax Dad]

one of my problems with the test and trace strategy is from what i can glean, we are in no way, no shape to be running 330 million tests per week.
just as far as production goes:
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1199176
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/thermo- ... -week.html
those are very large companies. ramping up production to a mere tiny fraction of what is proposed. and then there's the small matter of the other 7 billion people out there.

is it feasible? i have no idea, but kind of looks like a long shot ... some (long) time into the future. we were debating 300k vs 1m per day not long ago. and the head of testing was saying 5m per day was not reasonably realistic. so now 50 m per day is getting out into public hands and executed bc it's a nice wish list item? i don't think $$ is the problem. capacity is.

Did your read somewhere that the goal is to test everyone once a week?

[wgdsr]

i just read it in the larry summers piece. was it just spaghetti on the fridge, not a goal? it wasn't backed by analysis, but used to frame his argument.
harvard white paper said as much as hundreds of millions per day.

what's the goal?

[cradleandshoot]

one of my problems with the test and trace strategy is from what i can glean, we are in no way, no shape to be running 330 million tests per week.
just as far as production goes:
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1199176
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/thermo- ... -week.html
those are very large companies. ramping up production to a mere tiny fraction of what is proposed. and then there's the small matter of the other 7 billion people out there.

is it feasible? i have no idea, but kind of looks like a long shot ... some (long) time into the future. we were debating 300k vs 1m per day not long ago. and the head of testing was saying 5m per day was not reasonably realistic. so now 50 m per day is getting out into public hands and executed bc it's a nice wish list item? i don't think $$ is the problem. capacity is.

If my wife is correct, and I dont doubt her, there is a huge downside to all the testing. It is a good thing to test. I believe, from what my wife says, the labs are overwhelmed and dont have the ability to process all the test results that are piling up. These labs dont just do corona virus testing. They still have many other tests non corona that they still have to process. They dont have the ability to rapidly process all the testing being put on their plate.

[tech37]

From the YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS STUFF UP FILES

During DOPUS visit to Honeywell (sans masks again) yesterday the music piped into the factory floor was

LIVE & LET DIE

Only the best people for the stable genius.

If true, an awful choice (awful song to begin with IMO but I digress). Why play music at all? Fing stupid. Was anyone wearing masks at Honeywell?

[Typical Lax Dad]

i just read it in the larry summers piece. was it just spaghetti on the fridge, not a goal? it wasn't backed by analysis, but used to frame his argument.
harvard white paper said as much as hundreds of millions per day.

what's the goal?

Not sure if there is a target number. If there haven’t been any incidents, the number would be 0. Not sure it makes since to test people in a community if there haven’t been any outbreaks or known cases. There is probably some statistical valid number that scientists (and A/I leveraged) can get to that’s rational. Sampling. Testing everyone every week is impractical. However, we need the capacity to test high volumes of necessary.

Btw, it took 20 years to get our arms around smallpox and a vaccine. Thank goodness this is not as deadly, though it transmits easier and we have more global travel.

[tech37]

Where is Cuomo on this?

https://abc7ny.com/ny-nursing-home-deat ... s/6153135/

ALBANY, New York (WABC) -- New York state is reporting more than 1,700 previously undisclosed deaths at nursing homes and adult care facilities as the state faces scrutiny over how it has protected vulnerable residents during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/nursing-h ... uomo-says/

YIKES, they actually quote him as saying the exact opposite of what they are claiming. Talk about awful reporting!

NO, if a nursing home accepts a patient, they have to provide adequate care...but if they don't believe they can do so they MUST ask for that person to be transferred, either by arranging the transfer themselves or asking for the State's help. New York has set up COVID only facilities to take such patients in.

But if the nursing home accepts the patient and revenue that goes with the patient, they need to actually provide adequate care. Ohh my, what a scandal!

Yep...Bad job on my part

[tech37]

From the YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS STUFF UP FILES

During DOPUS visit to Honeywell (sans masks again) yesterday the music piped into the factory floor was

LIVE & LET DIE

Only the best people for the stable genius.

If true, an awful choice (awful song to begin with IMO but I digress). Why play music at all? Fing stupid. Was anyone wearing masks at Honeywell?

Okay, the CNBC article states that Honeywell told WH that masks weren't required. But all the production line workers were wearing them. IMO, Trump should have worn one too, if for nothing else a symbolic gesture and certainly in solidarity with the workers. They just keep missing obvious positive PR opportunities.