All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[6ftstick]

Sweden

London coronavirus model predicted 40,000 dead by May 1.

100,000 dead by June 1.

2680 dead to date——no forced mitigation or forced social distancing.

Whoopsie

USA

Trump projected about 15 dead

We are over 70,000

Whoopsie

Trump Trump Trump.

[tech37]

Okay so this is the strain we've been mostly dealing with. The scary headline and graphic makes it sound like it has just emerged.

IMHO that is a distinction without a difference. The virus is what it is and everyone deserves to know that.

Agreed kismet. Being skeptical re all news vehicles at this point, any doubt on my part is with the medium not the message.

Yep but the tabloid/clickbait effect is the play here and people need to be informed well enough to see through it and get to the crux of the issue as you did.

That's the trouble, people don't get past the headline and come away with misinformation. Obviously editors for a paper like LA Times (left of center) know exactly what they're doing with misleading headlines.

Not so sure other than what I previously mentioned regarding clickbaiting/view inflation ostensibly to increase ad revenue which isn't always in accordance with informing the public clearly and directly. But, sadly, that's the way things on across the full spectrum of media - both right, left and center.

Agreed and why I said i'm skeptical of any news outlet these days...unfortunately

[tech37]

Sweden

London coronavirus model predicted 40,000 dead by May 1.

100,000 dead by June 1.

2680 dead to date——no forced mitigation or forced social distancing.

Whoopsie

Yeah, as I mentioned before, Swedes are different...we could never pull off what they are doing, here. They have a discipline and pragmatism (it's cultural) that we here in the States do not.

A personal experience... I was dating a Swedish woman in mid-eighties who had dual-citizenship. We were visiting her family in Sweden on summer vacation. After a couple beers I wanted to drive my rental (Volvo ) back to where we were staying and her cousins adamantly said, no you can't drive. I laughed and was like, you can't be serious. They took the car keys from me. This was 1986 maybe and orders from people our age...not elders.

[RedFromMI]

Sweden

London coronavirus model predicted 40,000 dead by May 1.

100,000 dead by June 1.

2680 dead to date——no forced mitigation or forced social distancing.

Whoopsie

Yeah, as I mentioned before, Swedes are different...we could never pull off what they are doing, here. They have a discipline and pragmatism (it's cultural) that we here in the States do not.

A personal experience... I was dating a Swedish woman in mid-eighties who had dual-citizenship. We were visiting her family in Sweden on summer vacation. I wanted to drive my rental (Volvo ) back to where we were staying and her cousins adamantly said, no you can't drive. I laughed and was like, you can't be serious. They took the car keys from me. This was 1986 maybe and orders from people our age...not elders.

I assume it was because you had consumed some alcoholic beverages - Nordic countries are and have been notoriously tough in enforcing DWI laws (things like 2 year sentences for first conviction).

[Typical Lax Dad]

Sweden

London coronavirus model predicted 40,000 dead by May 1.

100,000 dead by June 1.

2680 dead to date——no forced mitigation or forced social distancing.

Whoopsie

USA

Trump projected about 15 dead

We are over 70,000

Whoopsie

Trump Trump Trump.

Is my statement misleading?

[tech37]

Sweden

London coronavirus model predicted 40,000 dead by May 1.

100,000 dead by June 1.

2680 dead to date——no forced mitigation or forced social distancing.

Whoopsie

Yeah, as I mentioned before, Swedes are different...we could never pull off what they are doing, here. They have a discipline and pragmatism (it's cultural) that we here in the States do not.

A personal experience... I was dating a Swedish woman in mid-eighties who had dual-citizenship. We were visiting her family in Sweden on summer vacation. I wanted to drive my rental (Volvo ) back to where we were staying and her cousins adamantly said, no you can't drive. I laughed and was like, you can't be serious. They took the car keys from me. This was 1986 maybe and orders from people our age...not elders.

I assume it was because you had consumed some alcoholic beverages - Nordic countries are and have been notoriously tough in enforcing DWI laws (things like 2 year sentences for first conviction).

Ha! Thanks, just edited to add.

[wgdsr]

Sweden

London coronavirus model predicted 40,000 dead by May 1.

100,000 dead by June 1.

2680 dead to date——no forced mitigation or forced social distancing.

Whoopsie

Yeah, as I mentioned before, Swedes are different...we could never pull off what they are doing, here. They have a discipline and pragmatism (it's cultural) that we here in the States do not.

A personal experience... I was dating a Swedish woman in mid-eighties who had dual-citizenship. We were visiting her family in Sweden on summer vacation. After a couple beers I wanted to drive my rental (Volvo ) back to where we were staying and her cousins adamantly said, no you can't drive. I laughed and was like, you can't be serious. They took the car keys from me. This was 1986 maybe and orders from people our age...not elders.

holy cr*p, swedish woman in mid-eighties? how old were you? was she experienced?

[wgdsr]

Okay so this is the strain we've been mostly dealing with. The scary headline and graphic makes it sound like it has just emerged.

IMHO that is a distinction without a difference. The virus is what it is and everyone deserves to know that.

Agreed kismet. Being skeptical re all news vehicles at this point, any doubt on my part is with the medium not the message.

Yep but the tabloid/clickbait effect is the play here and people need to be informed well enough to see through it and get to the crux of the issue as you did.

That's the trouble, people don't get past the headline and come away with misinformation. Obviously editors for a paper like LA Times (left of center) know exactly what they're doing with misleading headlines.

Not so sure other than what I previously mentioned regarding clickbaiting/view inflation ostensibly to increase ad revenue which isn't always in accordance with informing the public clearly and directly. But, sadly, that's the way things on across the full spectrum of media - both right, left and center.

Agreed and why I said i'm skeptical of any news outlet these days...unfortunately

in that light, let's throw some data out there from a political leaning outlet on the petri dish of prisons. lots of links to get incremental data. huge spread in confined environments, of course. few elderly... so case fatality rates low. most striking to me vs what has been largely disseminated... asymptomatic cases... wow. somewhat influenced by age, no doubt, but that can't account for all of it. or maybe not anywhere near all of it.
https://www.conservativereview.com/news ... ro-deaths/

[Typical Lax Dad]

Okay so this is the strain we've been mostly dealing with. The scary headline and graphic makes it sound like it has just emerged.

IMHO that is a distinction without a difference. The virus is what it is and everyone deserves to know that.

Agreed kismet. Being skeptical re all news vehicles at this point, any doubt on my part is with the medium not the message.

Yep but the tabloid/clickbait effect is the play here and people need to be informed well enough to see through it and get to the crux of the issue as you did.

That's the trouble, people don't get past the headline and come away with misinformation. Obviously editors for a paper like LA Times (left of center) know exactly what they're doing with misleading headlines.

Not so sure other than what I previously mentioned regarding clickbaiting/view inflation ostensibly to increase ad revenue which isn't always in accordance with informing the public clearly and directly. But, sadly, that's the way things on across the full spectrum of media - both right, left and center.

Agreed and why I said i'm skeptical of any news outlet these days...unfortunately

in that light, let's throw some data out there from a political leaning outlet on the petri dish of prisons. lots of links to get incremental data. huge spread in confined environments, of course. few elderly... so case fatality rates low. most striking to me vs what has been largely disseminated... asymptomatic cases... wow. somewhat influenced by age, no doubt, but that can't account for all of it. or maybe not anywhere near all of it.
https://www.conservativereview.com/news ... ro-deaths/

Good thing those prisoners were not out spreading the disease to others. Stay at home is effective.

[tech37]

Sweden

London coronavirus model predicted 40,000 dead by May 1.

100,000 dead by June 1.

2680 dead to date——no forced mitigation or forced social distancing.

Whoopsie

Yeah, as I mentioned before, Swedes are different...we could never pull off what they are doing, here. They have a discipline and pragmatism (it's cultural) that we here in the States do not.

A personal experience... I was dating a Swedish woman in mid-eighties who had dual-citizenship. We were visiting her family in Sweden on summer vacation. After a couple beers I wanted to drive my rental (Volvo ) back to where we were staying and her cousins adamantly said, no you can't drive. I laughed and was like, you can't be serious. They took the car keys from me. This was 1986 maybe and orders from people our age...not elders.

holy cr*p, swedish woman in mid-eighties? how old were you? was she experienced?

I said Swedes were pragmatic!

[CU77]

Trump Trump Trump.

Correct, he is the guy in charge. Buck stops on his desk, whether he admits it or not.

[6ftstick]

Trump Trump Trump.

Correct, he is the guy in charge. Buck stops on his desk, whether he admits it or not.

Swedes projected 40K dead actual 2680

US projected 2.5 million dead actiual less than 70k.

The point of the post was that the models were WRONG. Orders of magnitude wrong.

[a fan]

You really have to stop doing this, six. If only for your own health.

Those numbers were BEFORE the whole world shut down, and were based on what little data they had, and again: we didn't, and still don't have the testing needed to figure out who has it, and who doesn't.

So if you don't know who has it...how the heck can you forecast accurate death rates? You can't. So take a breath, relax, and be grateful that the numbers are coming down. An accurate assessment of what REALLY happened in Sweden and the US will take years to assemble.

This whole game of "see? I told you this was no big deal" is just bad logic.

And again---if you REALLY want to play this blame game, everything lands at Trump's feet. We don't have the tests we need to make good decisions. He's in charge of every department that's responsible for getting those tests made, and out to the American people.

And no, I don't blame Trump, or any other Governor. This is an impossible job, and it's impossible to get it right.

But if you REALLY want to get the economy going, we need testing. It should look like WWII to get those made. And IMHO, we're not doing that.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Sweden

London coronavirus model predicted 40,000 dead by May 1.

100,000 dead by June 1.

2680 dead to date——no forced mitigation or forced social distancing.

Whoopsie

Yeah, as I mentioned before, Swedes are different...we could never pull off what they are doing, here. They have a discipline and pragmatism (it's cultural) that we here in the States do not.

A personal experience... I was dating a Swedish woman in mid-eighties who had dual-citizenship. We were visiting her family in Sweden on summer vacation. After a couple beers I wanted to drive my rental (Volvo ) back to where we were staying and her cousins adamantly said, no you can't drive. I laughed and was like, you can't be serious. They took the car keys from me. This was 1986 maybe and orders from people our age...not elders.

holy cr*p, swedish woman in mid-eighties? how old were you? was she experienced?

I said Swedes were pragmatic!

It’s “Twoo”

[ggait]

Sweden

London coronavirus model predicted 40,000 dead by May 1.

100,000 dead by June 1.

2680 dead to date——no forced mitigation or forced social distancing.

Whoopsie

Total forking bullshirt from you Six. How about some real data/discussion instead of your moronic garbage.

First, Univ London numbers you cite assumed no measures employed. Sweden has employed a LOT of measures. Just slightly less than what its Nordic peer countries employed. And the Swedes follow rules -- so the SD has been implemented on a voluntary vs. mandatory basis. But it still has been implemented. By some measures, travel in Sweden is down 90% for example.

So your post is as insightful as saying "if the queen had b*lls she'd be king." Are you ignorant or just trolling?

Sweden is up to 283 deaths per million. Spain, Italy, UK are higher. USA is lower. Denmark (87), Finland (44), Norway(40) much lower. UW projects 10k deaths for Sweden, which would work out to be 1,000 per million for Sweden. So Sweden is doing really bad on the death toll. They really really screwed up on protecting their elderly. But they kept elementary schools open and lessened the hit to the economy a bit.

But it is only halftime. TBD if/when herd immunity might kick in for Sweden. TBD what spikes lock down countries experience as they open up. Could be that somewhat opened up countries will all eventually look like Sweden.

Also recognize that Sweden is working with pretty good demographics. Lower pop density than Italy, Spain, UK. Lots of single person households. Generally healthy population who follow orders. That makes their death toll look extra bad at this point. And means that you couldn't use the Swedish plan successfully in other countries with different demos. PEr Goldman Sachs:

“We conclude that Sweden is not particularly suited as a reference point for the coronavirus response of other countries, as our analysis suggests that lower infection rate is likely to reflect in part less testing, while demographic and health-care factors may help explain the fatality rate. In our view, the Swedish experience therefore cannot be extrapolated to support a swift reopening elsewhere. That said, our analysis suggests that Germany could be in a better position to lift containment measures than southern Europe,” they say.

But other than that, great post!!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-s ... 2020-05-05

[a fan]

Yeah, as I mentioned before, Swedes are different...we could never pull off what they are doing, here. They have a discipline and pragmatism (it's cultural) that we here in the States do not.

Yep. Americans aren't built for these stay at home orders.

[njbill]

I was dating a Swedish woman in mid-eighties who had dual-citizenship.

She was in her mid-80s or was it in the mid-1980s?

[a fan]

Don't rule out the possibility that it's both.

[tech37]

I was dating a Swedish woman in mid-eighties who had dual-citizenship.

She was in her mid-80s or was it in the mid-1980s?

Geez you guys...see if I post another anecdote after this!... in the, not in her...got that wsdgr?

[tech37]

Yeah, as I mentioned before, Swedes are different...we could never pull off what they are doing, here. They have a discipline and pragmatism (it's cultural) that we here in the States do not.

Yep. Americans aren't built for these stay at home orders.

That, and compared to Sweden, we're too big and culturally diverse.