All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

Florida is doing their part. Love the spin.

[DocBarrister]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

Recall that Fauci/Birks were saying 100-240k WITH perfect social distancing.

UW today says 59-114k range, with a baseline projection of 72k.

If you include UW's range (which folks have tended to overlook) UW has been more accurate than anyone else. At least so far.

TLD’s estimate is better than Trump’s (just think about that for a second). We’re headed for over 100,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths by this summer. Trump today called his team’s performance, “Spectacular.” Not sure the families of those 100,000+ dead will agree.

Ominously, the death toll from New York has been cut by more than half, and we still hit 2,000+ deaths for three consecutive days. Deaths from other states are easily making up for the lowered mortality in New York. Not good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

There is no way any state should be opening things up tomorrow. It’s too early and we still don’t have a comprehensive testing and contact tracing program in place.

Trump’s failed response to the pandemic will almost certainly be remembered as the greatest failure of presidential leadership since the years leading up to the Civil War. Those who continue to support this president share in the moral culpability for his failures.

DocBarrister

In reality we are already at about 100K when you add in the missed deaths attributable to CV-19. But no doubt we will get much closer in the official count (without that adjustment) by midsummer.

And prompt and coordinated action by the President and his administration could easily kept the death toll in that same window to under 10K. Pandemic Don to the non-rescue...

I agree. Just look at South Korea. They implemented a massive testing, contact tracing, and isolation program within a few weeks of their first confirmed case. South Korea, while employing social distancing and other mitigation measures, has never had to shut down their economy to the extent we have.

The result? South Korea still has fewer than 250 confirmed coronavirus deaths. That’s what happens in a nation that thought 38 deaths from the 2015 MERS epidemic was an outrageous failure.

Meanwhile, we have a so-called president, Donald Trump, who thinks that heading towards 100,000+ deaths is a “spectacular” job.

Donald Trump and the Republican Party of Death.

DocBarrister

[wgdsr]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

Recall that Fauci/Birks were saying 100-240k WITH perfect social distancing.

UW today says 59-114k range, with a baseline projection of 72k.

If you include UW's range (which folks have tended to overlook) UW has been more accurate than anyone else. At least so far.

Yep. I don’t have a problem with UW’s model. It’s the nature of modeling and this is a novel virus. Reasonableness is all you can ask for.

my issue is that donald trump only hears the one number. not the range. he thinks it's over already, i swear he does. he also thinks he's in charge of the fast track vaccine, but that's another matter.
i could care less if they are right or wrong or in a range, but i do care if they are wrong (and what looks like blatantly and stubbornly wrong) and the administration of states and fed are closely listening. even if the sound of that-- our leaders not being able to deduce things clearly, flexibly and from multiple sources -- is incredible to write.
if we are bidding to open up, and it looks like we are in the short term, that affects policy if they are very wrong. i think they are, i guess we'll see.

i'm mostly concerned with those that have been most affected -- employees and then the elderly/those afflicted with preexisting conditions... what are we doing for them in getting them out to work safely, and buffered from the virus @ home, respectively?

that's where the difference can be made against this thing, from what i've gleaned so far.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I am focused on the daily deaths more than anything. The number of deaths and hospitalizations. Those two numbers decrease by a meaningful amount, we can lighten up. If they hold steady or go up, I don’t expect much change. The public health officials in each state and the numbers they see will have more influence than the UW model. That’s my view.

[wgdsr]

i don't know what soon means, but with the numbers we're experiencing here and abroad it'd be nice if we see tons of rigorous traditional trials from any number of drugs within weeks. there have been enough that have worked in vitro that hopefully something sticks.

There's lots of current HCQ trials going on.

Among the earliest to start were UMinn (started March 17) and UPenn (started April 3). Data has got to be very close to available.

https://med.umn.edu/news-events/covid-1 ... -minnesota

https://www.pennmedicine.org/news/news- ... nt-covid19

https://twitter.com/boulware_dr/status/ ... 1527700481

an "analysis" due tomorrow friday on one or both of minny's hcq trials midstream. no "report" supposedly, though i don't know what analysis means. might mean something similar remdesivir yesterday with snippets out publicly (though fauci said he did that bc info was leaking), or something more official but not comprehensive. also could mean that's some sort of cutoff date and info will be out later if at all.
2 trials are for those exposed to someone with it, and those with mild symptoms on the baseline. most importantly, double blind randomized.

[MDlaxfan76]

I am focused on the daily deaths more than anything. The number of deaths and hospitalizations. Those two numbers decrease by a meaningful amount, we can lighten up. If they hold steady or go up, I don’t expect much change. The public health officials in each state and the numbers they see will have more influence than the UW model. That’s my view.

True only in those states in which Governors are strong enough to resist certain types of politics.

Some are making decisions out of ideology or pure stupidity ala the Governor of Georgia who suddenly learned that the virus can spread from asymptomatic carriers...'who knew'?

[youthathletics]

Anyone listening to Bill Gates and Gupta on Anderson Cooper tonight? Saying essentially the same thing many here have argued.....testing and not getting results quickly are damned near useless if your are not getting results quickly. If you test everyone and it still tales a week to get an answer it of little value.

Gates then goes on to argue all the political / bureaucratic red tape for not having contact tracing.

Between the lines.....there is not a dang thing we can do or could have done to expedite testing the way we the USA currently operate.

This is also what many here have argued....more testing is of little value it you don’t get the results quickly.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I am focused on the daily deaths more than anything. The number of deaths and hospitalizations. Those two numbers decrease by a meaningful amount, we can lighten up. If they hold steady or go up, I don’t expect much change. The public health officials in each state and the numbers they see will have more influence than the UW model. That’s my view.

True only in those states in which Governors are strong enough to resist certain types of politics.

Some are making decisions out of ideology or pure stupidity ala the Governor of Georgia who suddenly learned that the virus can spread from asymptomatic carriers...'who knew'?

You know, I was applying common sense. On the other hand, those guys are not relying on UW data either, nor common sense. Perfect example of politicians not caring about their subjects....more interested in their re-election calculus.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Anyone listening to Bill Gates and Gupta on Anderson Cooper tonight? Saying essentially the same thing many here have argued.....testing and not getting results quickly are damned near useless if your are not getting results quickly. If you test everyone and it still tales a week to get an answer it of little value.

Gates then goes on to argue all the political / bureaucratic red tape for not having contact tracing.

Between the lines.....there is not a dang thing we can do or could have done to expedite testing the way we the USA currently operate.

This is also what many here have argued....more testing is of little value it you don’t get the results quickly.

I am not watching TV.....Was that on PBS? Browsing on my laptop listening to Jutta Hipp.

[MDlaxfan76]

I am focused on the daily deaths more than anything. The number of deaths and hospitalizations. Those two numbers decrease by a meaningful amount, we can lighten up. If they hold steady or go up, I don’t expect much change. The public health officials in each state and the numbers they see will have more influence than the UW model. That’s my view.

True only in those states in which Governors are strong enough to resist certain types of politics.

Some are making decisions out of ideology or pure stupidity ala the Governor of Georgia who suddenly learned that the virus can spread from asymptomatic carriers...'who knew'?

You know, I was applying common sense. On the other hand, those guys are not relying on UW data either, nor common sense. Perfect example of politicians not caring about their subjects....more interested in their re-election calculus.

True

[wgdsr]

Anyone listening to Bill Gates and Gupta on Anderson Cooper tonight? Saying essentially the same thing many here have argued.....testing and not getting results quickly are damned near useless if your are not getting results quickly. If you test everyone and it still tales a week to get an answer it of little value.

Gates then goes on to argue all the political / bureaucratic red tape for not having contact tracing.

Between the lines.....there is not a dang thing we can do or could have done to expedite testing the way we the USA currently operate.

This is also what many here have argued....more testing is of little value it you don’t get the results quickly.

what are you talking about, youth? look at south korea.

[RedFromMI]

Anyone listening to Bill Gates and Gupta on Anderson Cooper tonight? Saying essentially the same thing many here have argued.....testing and not getting results quickly are damned near useless if your are not getting results quickly. If you test everyone and it still tales a week to get an answer it of little value.

Gates then goes on to argue all the political / bureaucratic red tape for not having contact tracing.

Between the lines.....there is not a dang thing we can do or could have done to expedite testing the way we the USA currently operate.

This is also what many here have argued....more testing is of little value it you don’t get the results quickly.

what are you talking about, youth? look at south korea.

And a capable and engaged President (which we absolutely do not have now) would have jumped on the problem early and done something proactively. We would not be in this pickle. For all his faults GWB would have done it. Obama would have done it.

Trump is just incapable. And his administration at the top is quite thin with competent capable leaders who are willing to put the country and not the re-election first. The funny thing - if Trump would have done that he would probably be favored for re-election at this point.

[wgdsr]

sure. there seem to be quite a few incompetent countries out there.

jordan vs labradford smith in 2nd of a back-to-back. game was over before it was played.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 114748.htm

We should have been looking to rapidly develop a test the day after this was released....a failure of leadership. When it’s not a priority this is what you get.

Available tests

PCR based
When scientists from China first released information on the COVID‑19 viral genome on 11 January 2020, the Malaysian Institute for Medical Research (IMR) successfully produced the “primers and probes” specific to SARS-CoV-2 on the very same day. The IMR's laboratory in Kuala Lumpur had initiated early preparedness by setting up reagents to detect coronavirus using the rt-PCR method.[94] The WHO reagent sequence (primers and probes) released several days later was very similar to that produced in the IMR's laboratory, which was used to diagnose Malaysia's first COVID‑19 patient on 24 January 2020.[95]

Public Health England developed a test by 10 January,[96] using real-time RT-PCR (RdRp gene) assay based on oral swabs.[97] The test detected the presence of any type of coronavirus including specifically identifying SARS-CoV-2. It was rolled out to twelve laboratories across the United Kingdom on 10 February.[98] Another early PCR test was developed by Charité in Berlin, working with academic collaborators in Europe and Hong Kong, and published on 23 January. It used rtRT-PCR, and formed the basis of 250,000 kits for distribution by the World Health Organization (WHO).[99] The South Korean company Kogenebiotech developed a clinical grade, PCR-based SARS-CoV-2 detection kit (PowerChek Coronavirus) on 28 January 2020.[100][101] It looks for the "E" gene shared by all beta coronaviruses, and the RdRp gene specific to SARS-CoV-2.[102]

In China, BGI Group was one of the first companies to receive emergency use approval from China's National Medical Products Administration for a PCR-based SARS-CoV-2 detection kit.[103]

In the United States, the CDC distributed its SARS-CoV-2 Real Time PCR Diagnostic Panel to public health labs through the International Reagent Resource.[104] One of three genetic tests in older versions of the test kits caused inconclusive results due to faulty reagents, and a bottleneck of testing at the CDC in Atlanta; this resulted in an average of fewer than 100 samples a day being successfully processed throughout the whole of February 2020. Tests using two components were not determined to be reliable until 28 February 2020, and it was not until then that state and local laboratories were permitted to begin testing.[105] The test was approved by the FDA under an EUA.[citation needed]

US commercial labs began testing in early March 2020. As of 5 March 2020 LabCorp announced nationwide availability of COVID‑19 testing based on RT-PCR.[106] Quest Diagnostics similarly made nationwide COVID‑19 testing available as of 9 March 2020.[107]

[wgdsr]

england's doing great. heard pm say yesterday they might be past the peak.
he seems to be doing better, too.

[Typical Lax Dad]

england's doing great. heard pm say yesterday they might be past the peak.
he seems to be doing better, too.

A lot of people got testing right.

[youthathletics]

Anyone listening to Bill Gates and Gupta on Anderson Cooper tonight? Saying essentially the same thing many here have argued.....testing and not getting results quickly are damned near useless if your are not getting results quickly. If you test everyone and it still tales a week to get an answer it of little value.

Gates then goes on to argue all the political / bureaucratic red tape for not having contact tracing.

Between the lines.....there is not a dang thing we can do or could have done to expedite testing the way we the USA currently operate.

This is also what many here have argued....more testing is of little value it you don’t get the results quickly.

what are you talking about, youth? look at south korea.

That’s what they were talking about. SK has what the US currently does not have, and has never had, because of the way we operate.....red tape, delays in approvals, etc

[Typical Lax Dad]

Anyone listening to Bill Gates and Gupta on Anderson Cooper tonight? Saying essentially the same thing many here have argued.....testing and not getting results quickly are damned near useless if your are not getting results quickly. If you test everyone and it still tales a week to get an answer it of little value.

Gates then goes on to argue all the political / bureaucratic red tape for not having contact tracing.

Between the lines.....there is not a dang thing we can do or could have done to expedite testing the way we the USA currently operate.

This is also what many here have argued....more testing is of little value it you don’t get the results quickly.

what are you talking about, youth? look at south korea.

That’s what they were talking about. SK has what the US currently does not have, and has never had, because of the way we operate.....red tape, delays in approvals, etc

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2153BW

[wgdsr]

Anyone listening to Bill Gates and Gupta on Anderson Cooper tonight? Saying essentially the same thing many here have argued.....testing and not getting results quickly are damned near useless if your are not getting results quickly. If you test everyone and it still tales a week to get an answer it of little value.

Gates then goes on to argue all the political / bureaucratic red tape for not having contact tracing.

Between the lines.....there is not a dang thing we can do or could have done to expedite testing the way we the USA currently operate.

This is also what many here have argued....more testing is of little value it you don’t get the results quickly.

what are you talking about, youth? look at south korea.

That’s what they were talking about. SK has what the US currently does not have, and has never had, because of the way we operate.....red tape, delays in approvals, etc

you mean we didn't have a law passed years ago that allowed the government to invade your phone to conduct contact tracing of you and anyone you went near?

and have 170 countries early on enact travel bans on us?

and a history of diiligence and obedience to wear masks and prep from a previous epidemic built into the culrure?

[youthathletics]

Anyone listening to Bill Gates and Gupta on Anderson Cooper tonight? Saying essentially the same thing many here have argued.....testing and not getting results quickly are damned near useless if your are not getting results quickly. If you test everyone and it still tales a week to get an answer it of little value.

Gates then goes on to argue all the political / bureaucratic red tape for not having contact tracing.

Between the lines.....there is not a dang thing we can do or could have done to expedite testing the way we the USA currently operate.

This is also what many here have argued....more testing is of little value it you don’t get the results quickly.

what are you talking about, youth? look at south korea.

That’s what they were talking about. SK has what the US currently does not have, and has never had, because of the way we operate.....red tape, delays in approvals, etc

you mean we didn't have a law passed years ago that allowed the government to invade your phone to conduct contact tracing of you and anyone you went near?

and have 170 countries early on enact travel bans on us?

and a history of diiligence and obedience to wear masks and prep from a previous epidemic built into the culrure?

The panel was discussing the simplest things like WTH is so special about a damned swab.....Gates danced around a direct answer by implying we simply have not operated that way. I took Gates’ reply as special interest winning the fight and we need fix this.