All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[RedFromMI]

From WaPo Live:

Md national guard protecting the SK tests Hogan procured in an undisclosed location to avoid seizure by the Feds.

[jhu72]

From WaPo Live:

Md national guard protecting the SK tests Hogan procured in an undisclosed location to avoid seizure by the Feds.

I was aware of the SK test kit story. Just how f**ked up is it that the governor of a state has to hide supplies and place armed guards to protect state property from the federal government?

Note: the SK test kit deal was made by Hogan's wife (Yumi), an immigrant from SK with political connections.

[ggait]

WDGSR -- agree that Sweden's experience will be very interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. It could be reflective of what things might look like here and in other countries as things gradually start to open up a bit.

While Sweden's death toll so far is very high (more than the USA and much more than its Nordic peers), they have not had their health care system overwhelmed. So maybe that's what the new normal is going to be. You continue to take a certain level of casualties but keep the hospitals intact. And you run your economy/society at 35-50% of normal rather than 15-25%.

extrapolate that with the u.s.... on the weekend of april 10, it was brace for impact, rough week ahead, peaking... and now here we are 3 weeks later. univ of washington keeps moving out their predictions a couple days saying we'll have 500 deaths per day in a week plus, and then less after that. this entire last 2 weeks they've been saying that. are we still listening to these guys? it seems we are. maybe they'll be right eventually.

On what basis are you throwing shade at UW?

Their initial USA projection IIRC was like 75k deaths -- which was back when Fauci/Birks were talking 100-220k. They dialed it down to 60k at one point and now they say 72k by 8/4/2020. USA deaths so far are 63k.

Given the dynamic nature of the situation, seems like they've been more right than anyone else I've seen and really have been in the same ballpark the whole time. Who do you think has done a better job than them?

[wgdsr]

WDGSR -- agree that Sweden's experience will be very interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. It could be reflective of what things might look like here and in other countries as things gradually start to open up a bit.

While Sweden's death toll so far is very high (more than the USA and much more than its Nordic peers), they have not had their health care system overwhelmed. So maybe that's what the new normal is going to be. You continue to take a certain level of casualties but keep the hospitals intact. And you run your economy/society at 35-50% of normal rather than 15-25%.

extrapolate that with the u.s.... on the weekend of april 10, it was brace for impact, rough week ahead, peaking... and now here we are 3 weeks later. univ of washington keeps moving out their predictions a couple days saying we'll have 500 deaths per day in a week plus, and then less after that. this entire last 2 weeks they've been saying that. are we still listening to these guys? it seems we are. maybe they'll be right eventually.

On what basis are you throwing shade at UW?

Their initial USA projection IIRC was like 75k deaths -- which was back when Fauci/Birks were talking 100-220k. They dialed it down to 60k at one point and now they say 72k by 8/4/2020. USA deaths so far are 63k.

Given the dynamic nature of the situation, seems like they've been more right than anyone else I've seen and really have been in the same ballpark the whole time. Who do you think has done a better job than them?

on the basis that in the last 3 weeks, they have been nowhere near their prediction, by order of magnitude. i actually don't have a problem with that, it's that they have barely changed it. all the while missing many of those by a quite a good amount. and my only problem with that is that it seems we are basing a lot of our policy response based on their numbers.
i am more than happy to be wrong. i am not an expert in stats, modeling, modeling epidemics, or any of that. hopefully, our deaths will fall off a cliff like they expect over the next week, week and a half. that would be awesome. they've expected it for a while, but better late than never. it's quite possible this largely comes from coagulated new hospitalizations and new icu patient rates.

however... our new cases continue to run... high. with the lag involved, you can consider me quite skeptical that we'll achieve that with 20-high 20s k cases showing up every day, and death tolls running @ over 2000 per day. almost every day. if the administration, federal and state, is then guiding policy on numbers that turn out to be demonstrably wrong in even the short term... and stubbornly so... then that would be a reason i'd be throwing shade at it. it's dangerous.

of course i (and everyone else) would be happy to be wrong. very wrong. 72k by august 4? check back in 10 days. or less.

[Typical Lax Dad]

WDGSR -- agree that Sweden's experience will be very interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. It could be reflective of what things might look like here and in other countries as things gradually start to open up a bit.

While Sweden's death toll so far is very high (more than the USA and much more than its Nordic peers), they have not had their health care system overwhelmed. So maybe that's what the new normal is going to be. You continue to take a certain level of casualties but keep the hospitals intact. And you run your economy/society at 35-50% of normal rather than 15-25%.

extrapolate that with the u.s.... on the weekend of april 10, it was brace for impact, rough week ahead, peaking... and now here we are 3 weeks later. univ of washington keeps moving out their predictions a couple days saying we'll have 500 deaths per day in a week plus, and then less after that. this entire last 2 weeks they've been saying that. are we still listening to these guys? it seems we are. maybe they'll be right eventually.

On what basis are you throwing shade at UW?

Their initial USA projection IIRC was like 75k deaths -- which was back when Fauci/Birks were talking 100-220k. They dialed it down to 60k at one point and now they say 72k by 8/4/2020. USA deaths so far are 63k.

Given the dynamic nature of the situation, seems like they've been more right than anyone else I've seen and really have been in the same ballpark the whole time. Who do you think has done a better job than them?

on the basis that in the last 3 weeks, they have been nowhere near their prediction, by order of magnitude. i actually don't have a problem with that, it's that they have barely changed it. all the while missing many of those by a quite a good amount. and my only problem with that is that it seems we are basing a lot of our policy response based on their numbers.
i am more than happy to be wrong. i am not an expert in stats, modeling, modeling epidemics, or any of that. hopefully, our deaths will fall off a cliff like they expect over the next week, week and a half. that would be awesome. they've expected it for a while, but better late than never. it's quite possible this largely comes from coagulated new hospitalizations and new icu patient rates.

however... our new cases continue to run... high. with the lag involved, you can consider me quite skeptical that we'll achieve that with 20-high 20s k cases showing up every day, and death tolls running @ over 2000 per day. almost every day. if the administration, federal and state, is then guiding policy on numbers that turn out to be demonstrably wrong in even the short term... and stubbornly so... then that would be a reason i'd be throwing shade at it. it's dangerous.

of course i (and everyone else) would be happy to be wrong. very wrong. 72k by august 4? check back in 10 days. or less.

My layman’s view is that we may cut deaths in half in May and then 75% in June. Once we get these high density cities behind us, this drop should be fast.

[MDlaxfan76]

WDGSR -- agree that Sweden's experience will be very interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. It could be reflective of what things might look like here and in other countries as things gradually start to open up a bit.

While Sweden's death toll so far is very high (more than the USA and much more than its Nordic peers), they have not had their health care system overwhelmed. So maybe that's what the new normal is going to be. You continue to take a certain level of casualties but keep the hospitals intact. And you run your economy/society at 35-50% of normal rather than 15-25%.

extrapolate that with the u.s.... on the weekend of april 10, it was brace for impact, rough week ahead, peaking... and now here we are 3 weeks later. univ of washington keeps moving out their predictions a couple days saying we'll have 500 deaths per day in a week plus, and then less after that. this entire last 2 weeks they've been saying that. are we still listening to these guys? it seems we are. maybe they'll be right eventually.

On what basis are you throwing shade at UW?

Their initial USA projection IIRC was like 75k deaths -- which was back when Fauci/Birks were talking 100-220k. They dialed it down to 60k at one point and now they say 72k by 8/4/2020. USA deaths so far are 63k.

Given the dynamic nature of the situation, seems like they've been more right than anyone else I've seen and really have been in the same ballpark the whole time. Who do you think has done a better job than them?

on the basis that in the last 3 weeks, they have been nowhere near their prediction, by order of magnitude. i actually don't have a problem with that, it's that they have barely changed it. all the while missing many of those by a quite a good amount. and my only problem with that is that it seems we are basing a lot of our policy response based on their numbers.
i am more than happy to be wrong. i am not an expert in stats, modeling, modeling epidemics, or any of that. hopefully, our deaths will fall off a cliff like they expect over the next week, week and a half. that would be awesome. they've expected it for a while, but better late than never. it's quite possible this largely comes from coagulated new hospitalizations and new icu patient rates.

however... our new cases continue to run... high. with the lag involved, you can consider me quite skeptical that we'll achieve that with 20-high 20s k cases showing up every day, and death tolls running @ over 2000 per day. almost every day. if the administration, federal and state, is then guiding policy on numbers that turn out to be demonstrably wrong in even the short term... and stubbornly so... then that would be a reason i'd be throwing shade at it. it's dangerous.

of course i (and everyone else) would be happy to be wrong. very wrong. 72k by august 4? check back in 10 days. or less.

I tend to agree that the likelihood of confirmed deaths tapping out at 72k by August 4 looks quite implausible at this point, even if the States were actually going to remain in lock down until the end of May, which is supposedly the assumption. Indeed, it would be pretty darn good news if that number wasn't exceeded before the end of May...could well be in the next 10-15 days. Maybe even faster.

And that's driven by actions in April. Lag time.

Have the projections actually been adjusted for the 'opening up' by so many states? or is there a factor that assumes that no matter what governors do, the population is going to remain very careful?

Perhaps the success of remdisvir will begin to kick in?
Fewer deaths per confirmed case?

Is there about to be a big drop off due to weather?

Any way, it sure looks like the numbers are going to continue to grow well past 72k confirmed (with a reality at least another 20% higher).

[RedFromMI]

WDGSR -- agree that Sweden's experience will be very interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. It could be reflective of what things might look like here and in other countries as things gradually start to open up a bit.

While Sweden's death toll so far is very high (more than the USA and much more than its Nordic peers), they have not had their health care system overwhelmed. So maybe that's what the new normal is going to be. You continue to take a certain level of casualties but keep the hospitals intact. And you run your economy/society at 35-50% of normal rather than 15-25%.

extrapolate that with the u.s.... on the weekend of april 10, it was brace for impact, rough week ahead, peaking... and now here we are 3 weeks later. univ of washington keeps moving out their predictions a couple days saying we'll have 500 deaths per day in a week plus, and then less after that. this entire last 2 weeks they've been saying that. are we still listening to these guys? it seems we are. maybe they'll be right eventually.

On what basis are you throwing shade at UW?

Their initial USA projection IIRC was like 75k deaths -- which was back when Fauci/Birks were talking 100-220k. They dialed it down to 60k at one point and now they say 72k by 8/4/2020. USA deaths so far are 63k.

Given the dynamic nature of the situation, seems like they've been more right than anyone else I've seen and really have been in the same ballpark the whole time. Who do you think has done a better job than them?

on the basis that in the last 3 weeks, they have been nowhere near their prediction, by order of magnitude. i actually don't have a problem with that, it's that they have barely changed it. all the while missing many of those by a quite a good amount. and my only problem with that is that it seems we are basing a lot of our policy response based on their numbers.
i am more than happy to be wrong. i am not an expert in stats, modeling, modeling epidemics, or any of that. hopefully, our deaths will fall off a cliff like they expect over the next week, week and a half. that would be awesome. they've expected it for a while, but better late than never. it's quite possible this largely comes from coagulated new hospitalizations and new icu patient rates.

however... our new cases continue to run... high. with the lag involved, you can consider me quite skeptical that we'll achieve that with 20-high 20s k cases showing up every day, and death tolls running @ over 2000 per day. almost every day. if the administration, federal and state, is then guiding policy on numbers that turn out to be demonstrably wrong in even the short term... and stubbornly so... then that would be a reason i'd be throwing shade at it. it's dangerous.

of course i (and everyone else) would be happy to be wrong. very wrong. 72k by august 4? check back in 10 days. or less.

UW has tended to be optimistic throughout in reality. But they also continuously adapt their modeling to reflect the fact that as time goes on more is actually known about the kinds of SD and their effects, etc. are having on the case load.

But case load is NOT in their current predictions - at least at the current version of the website. They are predicting deaths per day, hospital resource use (beds, ICU beds, ventilators needed), and total deaths. They also make assumptions on exactly what restrictive measures are in place, and as those measures are replaced, they have to update.

I am actually skeptical of the 72.4K current prediction (I think it will be higher, especially since some states are relaxing both too soon and too fast without proper planning). But there is a certain portion of the population (as well as an administration worried as hell about re-election) that is just (magically) thinking they can open back up as if not much had happened.

[Typical Lax Dad]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

[wgdsr]

WDGSR -- agree that Sweden's experience will be very interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. It could be reflective of what things might look like here and in other countries as things gradually start to open up a bit.

While Sweden's death toll so far is very high (more than the USA and much more than its Nordic peers), they have not had their health care system overwhelmed. So maybe that's what the new normal is going to be. You continue to take a certain level of casualties but keep the hospitals intact. And you run your economy/society at 35-50% of normal rather than 15-25%.

extrapolate that with the u.s.... on the weekend of april 10, it was brace for impact, rough week ahead, peaking... and now here we are 3 weeks later. univ of washington keeps moving out their predictions a couple days saying we'll have 500 deaths per day in a week plus, and then less after that. this entire last 2 weeks they've been saying that. are we still listening to these guys? it seems we are. maybe they'll be right eventually.

On what basis are you throwing shade at UW?

Their initial USA projection IIRC was like 75k deaths -- which was back when Fauci/Birks were talking 100-220k. They dialed it down to 60k at one point and now they say 72k by 8/4/2020. USA deaths so far are 63k.

Given the dynamic nature of the situation, seems like they've been more right than anyone else I've seen and really have been in the same ballpark the whole time. Who do you think has done a better job than them?

on the basis that in the last 3 weeks, they have been nowhere near their prediction, by order of magnitude. i actually don't have a problem with that, it's that they have barely changed it. all the while missing many of those by a quite a good amount. and my only problem with that is that it seems we are basing a lot of our policy response based on their numbers.
i am more than happy to be wrong. i am not an expert in stats, modeling, modeling epidemics, or any of that. hopefully, our deaths will fall off a cliff like they expect over the next week, week and a half. that would be awesome. they've expected it for a while, but better late than never. it's quite possible this largely comes from coagulated new hospitalizations and new icu patient rates.

however... our new cases continue to run... high. with the lag involved, you can consider me quite skeptical that we'll achieve that with 20-high 20s k cases showing up every day, and death tolls running @ over 2000 per day. almost every day. if the administration, federal and state, is then guiding policy on numbers that turn out to be demonstrably wrong in even the short term... and stubbornly so... then that would be a reason i'd be throwing shade at it. it's dangerous.

of course i (and everyone else) would be happy to be wrong. very wrong. 72k by august 4? check back in 10 days. or less.

UW has tended to be optimistic throughout in reality. But they also continuously adapt their modeling to reflect the fact that as time goes on more is actually known about the kinds of SD and their effects, etc. are having on the case load.

But case load is NOT in their current predictions - at least at the current version of the website. They are predicting deaths per day, hospital resource use (beds, ICU beds, ventilators needed), and total deaths. They also make assumptions on exactly what restrictive measures are in place, and as those measures are replaced, they have to update.

I am actually skeptical of the 72.4K current prediction (I think it will be higher, especially since some states are relaxing both too soon and too fast without proper planning). But there is a certain portion of the population (as well as an administration worried as hell about re-election) that is just (magically) thinking they can open back up as if not much had happened.

i mentioned case load as a predictive source for future case fatalities. crude as it may be. not that uw ran them or was missing on them.
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashb ... 0/download
here's just one site, massachusetts. they do a good job daily in rounding up info, easy to digest. is there anything that suggests things are about to fall off a cliff for them in a week or so? cumulative info? hospitalizations have been consistent at 3600-3900 for 2 1/2 weeks and icu about a quarter of that. there are many other states that look just like this. and some worse.
here's jersey:
https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/topics/cov ... oard.shtml
hospitalizations and ventilators are down maybe 25%+ over the high water marks 2 1/2 weeks ago, though icu care by not as much. bunny slope.
those 2 states have been hot spots and hit hard, accounting for 16% of u.s. deaths. and also recently, about 600 per day by themselves.

but, maybe we're a week or so from really coming out of this in the short term. hope so.

[6ftstick]

Pence visiting Ventec today and wearing a mask. Apparently, unlike the Duce, he can be trained.

Waiting for the pence pouncers to make some noise about their liberal icon saying one thing and doing another.

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others—George Orwell

Obama.jpg (196.51 KiB) Viewed 1618 times

[youthathletics]

[a fan]

Pence visiting Ventec today and wearing a mask. Apparently, unlike the Duce, he can be trained.

Waiting for the pence pouncers to make some noise about their liberal icon saying one thing and doing another.

Both JHU72 and I just praised Pence for his change of heart.....wearing a mask is about protecting OTHERS.

And yep, straight up sh*tty for Obama to go golfing, if that's true.

Lead by example. Our nation REALLY needs our leaders to actually F-ing lead, for a change.

[jhu72]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

I am still doing my charting although haven't posted it in a while. Looks to me like 80-85 K dead, best case. But we won't see best case. Enough bozos will lift restrictions too early and we will see an uptick that will get us over 100K. Of course all of these numbers will turn out to be low when the health department reviews are done. 10K or more will be found to have been attributed to non-CV causes that should have been CV.

[jhu72]

Pence visiting Ventec today and wearing a mask. Apparently, unlike the Duce, he can be trained.

Waiting for the pence pouncers to make some noise about their liberal icon saying one thing and doing another.

Both JHU72 and I just praised Pence for his change of heart.....wearing a mask is about protecting OTHERS.

And yep, straight up sh*tty for Obama to go golfing, if that's true.

Lead by example. Our nation REALLY needs our leaders to actually F-ing lead, for a change.

… IF …

[old salt]

WDGSR -- agree that Sweden's experience will be very interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. It could be reflective of what things might look like here and in other countries as things gradually start to open up a bit.

While Sweden's death toll so far is very high (more than the USA and much more than its Nordic peers), they have not had their health care system overwhelmed. So maybe that's what the new normal is going to be. You continue to take a certain level of casualties but keep the hospitals intact. And you run your economy/society at 35-50% of normal rather than 15-25%.

extrapolate that with the u.s.... on the weekend of april 10, it was brace for impact, rough week ahead, peaking... and now here we are 3 weeks later. univ of washington keeps moving out their predictions a couple days saying we'll have 500 deaths per day in a week plus, and then less after that. this entire last 2 weeks they've been saying that. are we still listening to these guys? it seems we are. maybe they'll be right eventually.

On what basis are you throwing shade at UW?

Their initial USA projection IIRC was like 75k deaths -- which was back when Fauci/Birks were talking 100-220k. They dialed it down to 60k at one point and now they say 72k by 8/4/2020. USA deaths so far are 63k.

Given the dynamic nature of the situation, seems like they've been more right than anyone else I've seen and really have been in the same ballpark the whole time. Who do you think has done a better job than them?

Anybody know Sweden's death rate for healthy, highly fit, 21-23 year olds with no comorbidities.

Asking for friends who have kids in Service Academy classes of 2020.

[ggait]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

Recall that Fauci/Birks were saying 100-240k WITH perfect social distancing.

UW today says 59-114k range, with a baseline projection of 72k.

If you include UW's range (which folks have tended to overlook) UW has been more accurate than anyone else. At least so far.

[Typical Lax Dad]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

Recall that Fauci/Birks were saying 100-240k WITH perfect social distancing.

UW today says 59-114k range, with a baseline projection of 72k.

If you include UW's range (which folks have tended to overlook) UW has been more accurate than anyone else. At least so far.

Yep. I don’t have a problem with UW’s model. It’s the nature of modeling and this is a novel virus. Reasonableness is all you can ask for.

[DocBarrister]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

Recall that Fauci/Birks were saying 100-240k WITH perfect social distancing.

UW today says 59-114k range, with a baseline projection of 72k.

If you include UW's range (which folks have tended to overlook) UW has been more accurate than anyone else. At least so far.

TLD’s estimate is better than Trump’s (just think about that for a second). We’re headed for over 100,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths by this summer. Trump today called his team’s performance, “Spectacular.” Not sure the families of those 100,000+ dead will agree.

Ominously, the death toll from New York has been cut by more than half, and we still hit 2,000+ deaths for three consecutive days. Deaths from other states are easily making up for the lowered mortality in New York. Not good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

There is no way any state should be opening things up tomorrow. It’s too early and we still don’t have a comprehensive testing and contact tracing program in place.

Trump’s failed response to the pandemic will almost certainly be remembered as the greatest failure of presidential leadership since the years leading up to the Civil War. Those who continue to support this president share in the moral culpability for his failures.

DocBarrister

[wgdsr]

WDGSR -- agree that Sweden's experience will be very interesting to monitor over the coming weeks. It could be reflective of what things might look like here and in other countries as things gradually start to open up a bit.

While Sweden's death toll so far is very high (more than the USA and much more than its Nordic peers), they have not had their health care system overwhelmed. So maybe that's what the new normal is going to be. You continue to take a certain level of casualties but keep the hospitals intact. And you run your economy/society at 35-50% of normal rather than 15-25%.

extrapolate that with the u.s.... on the weekend of april 10, it was brace for impact, rough week ahead, peaking... and now here we are 3 weeks later. univ of washington keeps moving out their predictions a couple days saying we'll have 500 deaths per day in a week plus, and then less after that. this entire last 2 weeks they've been saying that. are we still listening to these guys? it seems we are. maybe they'll be right eventually.

On what basis are you throwing shade at UW?

Their initial USA projection IIRC was like 75k deaths -- which was back when Fauci/Birks were talking 100-220k. They dialed it down to 60k at one point and now they say 72k by 8/4/2020. USA deaths so far are 63k.

Given the dynamic nature of the situation, seems like they've been more right than anyone else I've seen and really have been in the same ballpark the whole time. Who do you think has done a better job than them?

Anybody know Sweden's death rate for healthy, highly fit, 21-23 year olds with no comorbidities.

Asking for friends who have kids in Service Academy classes of 2020.

don't know about comorbitities, but:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... 87457ed9aa

6 deaths out of 1600 documented cases (likely much higher)... 0.37 % case fatality of the positive tests. also no deaths under 20.
there have been 16 deaths total under 40 years old. the median age for the population is 41. so 16/5,000,000 = 0.00032 % for the population under 40.
the case fatality is somewhere in between. they supposedly have antibody testing in the works, who knows when.

if they are healthy and highly fit, they probably fare even better.

[RedFromMI]

My layman’s view is 100k deaths at end of June.

Recall that Fauci/Birks were saying 100-240k WITH perfect social distancing.

UW today says 59-114k range, with a baseline projection of 72k.

If you include UW's range (which folks have tended to overlook) UW has been more accurate than anyone else. At least so far.

TLD’s estimate is better than Trump’s (just think about that for a second). We’re headed for over 100,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths by this summer. Trump today called his team’s performance, “Spectacular.” Not sure the families of those 100,000+ dead will agree.

Ominously, the death toll from New York has been cut by more than half, and we still hit 2,000+ deaths for three consecutive days. Deaths from other states are easily making up for the lowered mortality in New York. Not good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

There is no way any state should be opening things up tomorrow. It’s too early and we still don’t have a comprehensive testing and contact tracing program in place.

Trump’s failed response to the pandemic will almost certainly be remembered as the greatest failure of presidential leadership since the years leading up to the Civil War. Those who continue to support this president share in the moral culpability for his failures.

DocBarrister

In reality we are already at about 100K when you add in the missed deaths attributable to CV-19. But no doubt we will get much closer in the official count (without that adjustment) by midsummer.

And prompt and coordinated action by the President and his administration could easily kept the death toll in that same window to under 10K. Pandemic Don to the non-rescue...