All Things Russia & Ukraine

[MDlaxfan76]

Irony is wasted on the stupid. (I believe Oscar Wilde said that).

And indeed, I'd misunderstood your irony...as, by "happy coincidence", our fleet is indeed at higher capacity nearby.

[old salt]

This is a perfect mission for NATO's STANAVFORMED, currently lead by a Dutch Admiral, embarked on a Dutch destroyer.
That's why I said, for NATO solidarity, the US should add one of our DD's that's home ported in a NATO country & a constant presence in the E Med (or Black Sea) because of it's theater ballistic missile defense mission.

It is a happy coincidence that we have a carrier strike group in the Med for the first time in months. They just concluded exercises in the North Sea & above the Arctic Circle against simulated Russian forces. It is a coincidence that they transited into the Med before this incident, which we had no reason to anticipate.

What I propose for NATO would be a robust response, probably too much for NATO.
It's already a big deal when the US brings a single destroyer into the Black Sea.
That's nothing compared to a NATO flotilla entering the Sea of Azov & visiting Ukrainian ports.
But it would certainly demonstrate NATO solidarity in the face of Putin's attempt to undermine it.

[MDlaxfan76]

This is a perfect mission for NATO's STANAVFORMED, currently lead by a Dutch Admiral, embarked on a Dutch destroyer.
That's why I said, for NATO solidarity, the US should add one of our DD's that's home ported in a NATO country & a constant presence in the E Med (or Black Sea) because of it's theater ballistic missile defense mission.

It is a happy coincidence that we have a carrier strike group in the Med for the first time in months. They just concluded exercises in the North Sea & above the Arctic Circle against simulated Russian forces. It is a coincidence that they transited into the Med before this incident, which we had no reason to anticipate.

What I propose for NATO would be a robust response, probably too much for NATO.
It's already a big deal when the US brings a single destroyer into the Black Sea.
That's nothing compared to a NATO flotilla entering the Sea of Azov & visiting Ukrainian ports.
But it would certainly demonstrate NATO solidarity in the face of Putin's attempt to undermine it.

Agreed.
But would the US urge it, support it?
That does seem to be the question at hand.

Sounded like our Haley and Pompeo would support perhaps, but would POTUS?
He said something reminiscent of some other vacillating statements ala "both sides".

[old salt]

I don't know. I haven't researched if there are any standing treaty restrictions on warships operating in the Sea of Azov, transiting the Kerch straits, & visiting Ukrainian ports. There are restrictions on what warships the Turks will allow to enter the Black Sea.

It would be a very assertive response. Taking NATO warships through those constricted straits, into restrictive, contested, Ukrainian--Russian inland waters. It would be swimming in a rain barrel. The likely Russian responses, & what follows, would have to be carefully gamed out.

I doubt that NATO is ready for such a bold response or if our JCS, SecDef & NSC would recommend it, ...but you never know.
It would be a dashing move for Macron's EU Navy.

[old salt]

This is not just a regional dispute between Russia & Ukraine. It's an issue of freedom of navigation & keeping the sea lanes open.
10 of Ukraine's top 15 trading partners are NATO members, These are European waters. NATO needs to take the lead.
Each of those 10 nations need to assign a ship to the STANAVFORMED flotilla.
They should invite other top 15 trading partners Egypt, India & China to send a ship to join the flotilla.
They should sail into the Black Sea for maneuvers & take turns sailing into the Sea of Azov for Ukrainian port calls.
The EU wants to assert world leadership & preserve their right to unfettered global trade, this is their chance to assert that leadership via NATO.
Trump's right. He doesn't like that aggression. Europe shouldn't like that aggression. Germany shouldn't like that aggression.
Time to sortie the 1% Task Force.

[Trinity]

I like your plan. We should do it now because the Russian Navy is already blockading Ukraine ports. Kremlin confirms Trump-Putin gabfest in Argentina.

[dislaxxic]

Roger Stone’s ‘Time in the Barrel’: Campaign Dirty Tricks, Political Sabotage and the Law [LawFare]

"Any hope Stone may have of staying within the realm of dirty-but-legal trickery runs up against a particularly serious problem: the company that he and his associates kept. Should it turn out that they were encouraging and supporting a foreign government and its agents in any phase of the plan to acquire and disseminate stolen emails, they run headlong into the law barring foreign nationals from providing “anything of value” to an American political candidate. The rules prohibit a U.S. citizen from providing "substantial assistance" to foreign nationals violating this law. As Robert Mueller’s indictment of Russian parties for conspiracy to defraud the United States shows, Americans can also face liability under the same legal theory: conspiring to defraud the United States by failing to report these activities and thereby impeding the Federal Election Commission from discharging its law enforcement function.

Stone, an admirer of Richard Nixon who has the former president’s image tattooed on his back, would like to have Nixonian “dirty tricks” accepted as good, old-fashioned political "hardball." Not for the squeamish, perhaps, but not illegal. Along with Donald Trump, Paul Manafort, Don Jr. and possibly others in the Trump campaign, Roger Stone may have failed to realize the danger of playing these tricks in partnership with a foreign government."

..

[dislaxxic]

COHEN’S TESTIMONY IMPLICATES TRUMP AND HIS SPAWN

Remember, too, that Trump just submitted a sworn open book test that would have answered this question:

What communication did you have with Michael D. Cohen, Felix Sater and others, including foreign nationals, about Russian real estate developments during the campaign?

..

[old salt]

Looks like Frau Merkel is not anxious to join the 1%er Freedom of the Seas flotilla.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-r ... -1.4925128
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/ ... 15098.html
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-presi ... 27506.html

[MDlaxfan76]

Looks like Frau Merkel is not anxious to join the 1%er Freedom of the Seas flotilla.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-r ... -1.4925128
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/ ... 15098.html

Could be, or she's heard from Trump that the US won't stand with NATO in such an action...but more likely she and others are giving it the weekend. Sounds like it will be on the agenda.

[old salt]

The Brits get it. There'll always be an England .salut1.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7855025/r ... president/

It's great the way Poroshenko is calling out Merkel. How's Nordstream 2 progressing ?

Putin is testing NATO. If NATO does not send a significant Naval Force in to the Black Sea, it's a signal to Putin that he has a free hand in Ukraine & the Black Sea becomes a Russian lake.

The US has a carrier strike group in the E Med. That's as close as they can get. The Montreux Convention precludes aircraft carriers from entering the Black Sea.
A cruiser or destroyer is the most capable surface warship which can enter.
A large NATO flotilla would be, in the aggregate, well armed & too politically diverse to attack, without starting a war with all of NATO.
Time for NATO to put up, or shutup. At issue is freedom of navigation in European international waters.

[a fan]

The question is: does Trump get it?

Remember, according to VDH (don't make me pull the quote), Obama was soft, and Trump won't be pushed around like Obama was.

What's your wager here, old salt? Will Trump bail on the situation, risking criticism from you and VDH?

Or will he step up immediately, and enter the region with a show of force?

More importantly: which path is the correct path?

[dislaxxic]

i bet Hair Furor is carb-packing Big Macs 'n Fries the whole flight to Argentina...you know...for stamina.

..

[MDlaxfan76]

In addition to the aircraft carrier, wouldn't a strike force have multiple other ships, one of which could be deployed?

[runrussellrun]

This is a perfect mission for NATO's STANAVFORMED, currently lead by a Dutch Admiral, embarked on a Dutch destroyer.
That's why I said, for NATO solidarity, the US should add one of our DD's that's home ported in a NATO country & a constant presence in the E Med (or Black Sea) because of it's theater ballistic missile defense mission.

It is a happy coincidence that we have a carrier strike group in the Med for the first time in months. They just concluded exercises in the North Sea & above the Arctic Circle against simulated Russian forces. It is a coincidence that they transited into the Med before this incident, which we had no reason to anticipate.

What I propose for NATO would be a robust response, probably too much for NATO.
It's already a big deal when the US brings a single destroyer into the Black Sea.
That's nothing compared to a NATO flotilla entering the Sea of Azov & visiting Ukrainian ports.
But it would certainly demonstrate NATO solidarity in the face of Putin's attempt to undermine it.

Strike crew Defending MY freedom in the Med

Bring em all home, screw M.E. oil.........sell f-35 at a Flea Market. How they doing, still grounded, those F35's.

[old salt]

In addition to the aircraft carrier, wouldn't a strike force have multiple other ships, one of which could be deployed?

The Truman CSG includes 1 x CG + 3 x DDG's. One could be detached to join STANAVFORMED, but It would be better to task one of our Rota based DDG's to do that.
Keep the CSG intact & maintain as many launch tubes as possible, just over the horizion.
The NATO flotilla should be made up of guided missile destroyers & frigates, capable of their collective air & sub-surface defense.
I'd initially keep them in Romanian & Bulgarian territorial waters, under shore based air cover, & not send them toward Ukraine without shore based Combat Air Patrol overhead. NATO member Air Forces are already maintaining rotational air policing alert detachments in Romania & Bulgaria.
This is a perfect opportunity to demonstrate the Mattis 30x30x30 NATO deployment plan.
This has probably already been all gamed out.

[old salt]

The question is: does Trump get it?

Remember, according to VDH (don't make me pull the quote), Obama was soft, and Trump won't be pushed around like Obama was.

What's your wager here, old salt? Will Trump bail on the situation, risking criticism from you and VDH?

Or will he step up immediately, and enter the region with a show of force?

More importantly: which path is the correct path?

I'm sure Mattis, Bolton, Kelly, Pompeo & Dunford are all advising him.

I'd avdise Trump to include NATO in every sentence. Say this requires a united NATO response.
The US is ready to participate & support whatever the collective alliance decides.
The USN is already there, with a CSG in the E Med. Closer, with far more firepower, than any of our other NATO allies.

I wouldn't go into the Black Sea without a NATO flotilla.
Can't afford to get into a shooting war if our allies are going to stay neutral.
Time for Macron & Merkel to assert the EU leadership they've been puffing about.

If Trump indicates he might do something unilaterally, he'll be accused of wagging the dog.

[a fan]

I totally forgot Ukraine didn't get full NATO membership.

Trump doesn't have to do a thing.

[old salt]

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-president ... a-46496564

The {EU} bloc is divided on imposing further measures against Moscow. Countries such as Italy, Greece, Belgium and Cyprus have been calling for a softer approach to Russia, as Germany and France have focused on measures to ease tensions. Only the three former Soviet states on the Baltic Sea — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — backed by Poland and the UK called for tougher language against Moscow.

US President Donald Trump told the New York Post on Wednesday that he "didn't like" what was happening. He called on European leaders, especially Merkel, to "get involved."

"Angela, let's get involved Angela," Trump said.

USAF F-22 at a Romanian Air Base located near the Black Sea

[old salt]

I totally forgot Ukraine didn't get full NATO membership.

Trump doesn't have to do a thing.

Just curious. Did you learn that from watching Fox News Special Report ?

I ask, because that's the only cable news show I've noticed (so far) to make that distinction.

Trying to get a feel for how informed the US public is about Ukraine.

That's a factor in what Trump can do.