JUST the Stolen Documents/Mar-A-Lago/"Judge" Cannon Trial

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seacoaster
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by seacoaster »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:19 am I agree but other journalists will run this stuff by experts before making claims that don’t make sense. Thought Politico was better than that. Type of stuff that crushes credibility and helps the wrong side deflect.
Thanks for the explanation. I'm not sure the Politico article even mentions the syndication, or the fact that the BofC is not the lead lender. But the conflict is still there, at least for any other president I've known about.

Assume the loan defaults, FFG. What happens on the lead bank side of this? Are we just in a workout?

Again, thanks for the explanations. Hope your family is doing OK.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Farfromgeneva »

No this is totally sold off. If it defaults a special serviced (PNC has an Arm called Midland, of LNR/Rialto for example) would have to pursue a strategy to maximize payback/payoff and minimize losses. Funny thing that’s never been resolved in securitization is that the servicer is supposed to manage interest of all class holders but the bond owners of the Aaa rated tranche which is mostly insurance companies and pension funds, whom receive to lowest rate of interest but are the last to take a loss which “flows up” want to liquidate asset because their breakpoint to take a principal loss is like typically below 50% of value at origination (typically 65% or so of a large loan will go into a bond pool, then its sliced up where the triple A bondhders have roughly 30% subordination or credit enhancement in the form of junior bond holders to them to absorb losses on defaulted loans before they do). The high rate junior bond holders want to keep the thing out of foreclosure or liquidation as their tranche of the bonds would be wiped out as first to take loss but a 10-15% interest rate for the risk, so they want the free option on the property recovering and to string it out. So the special Servicer has to manage that while floating continued interest payments at their discretion until exit or liquidity event and like a debtor in possession financier will prime all other creditors. It’s very arcane and problematic.

But solutions could be foreclosure and sale of asset, sale of note, debt restructuring or other options.

Your answer though is that the originator carries no ongoing risk once the loan is sold through securitization. Even with the new rules around originators carrying risk these days they’ve figured out how to JV with funds to cover “risk retention” rules and hold de minimus credit risk. Hence the term “originate and distribute”. Securitization allows banks to recycle cash and increase liquidity to those markets, they’d be much more tight fisted if they had to hold loans with ten year terms and 30yr amortizations and large balloon payments at the end of ten years while funding themselves with govt gtd overnight deposits. The asset-liability managers like life cos and pension funds that have actuarial tables and know they need x dollars, Y number of years out will hold the lower risk portions of the pool of loans and take a lower yield for low risk return of cash and other asset managers will take on the longer duration credit risk to get paid more with the average blended cost of the bonds being cheaper and more efficiently priced than if banks just licked their finger and stuck it in the air to price loans which is what happened until the 1980s-early 90s when this type of structure occurred. The price originator lenders target a 2-3% gain on sale into the pooler securitizations when they price the loans.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:58 am :cry: I
CU88 wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:19 am Trump owes tens of millions to the Bank of China — and the loan is due soon

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/2 ... ebt-205475

But Trump himself is tens of millions of dollars in debt to China: In 2012, his real estate partner refinanced one of Trump’s most prized New York buildings for almost $1 billion. The debt includes $211 million from the state-owned Bank of China — its first loan of this kind in the U.S. — which matures in the middle of what could be Trump’s second term, financial records show.


How is this legal?
Just to be clear, the Bank of China’s has had a branch (that’s a legal term vs other operations of foreign banks in the US) since at least 2000. I have an old Hobart buddy named Richard Bradspies who is the COO of US operations into the crisis and maybe a few years after but they started to make a push late that decade into making more trophy asset CRE loans in NYC and the other five primary US markets (there’s six by institutional CRE definitions). Bradspies was older, class of 1974 at Bart and first met him around 05-06 and the operations were still modest in the US and he described his role as “they wanted a white man to mind the children” after a long career with other banks like BNP, HVB, etc. but Bank of China was lending to half the CRE mafia (noon an, Chetrit, rexler, Ross, Macklowe, etc) in NYC before the election in 2016 by a good bit.

So it would be inaccurate to think they specifically targeted trump due to his political appeal shortly after the crisis. On a syndicated loan that’s made as originate and so tribute (CMBS model) you typically only deal with the lead lender, which was not Bank of CHina and majority owner, Vornado (and Stephen Ross wouldn’t have been involved in a refinancing of even a billion dollar asset, a cap Mkts professional there would’ve). The whole story is kind of stupid in that Politico clearly didn’t run any of this by a professional in or near that business. There’s a big difference between a shop taking a piece of a syndicated deal that’s simply warehouse financing for two months or so to pool into a CMBS deal and being a portfolio lender and intending to hold the risk to maturity, which BoC has been doing for a number of years at that point.
In other words, Bank of China was just a stuffee?
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Farfromgeneva »

They just held a piece of the risk for 2-4mo until it was securitized. It’s more likely the lead lender wanted to rent their balance sheet at the time, but I worked for a German bank called Commerzbank in a proprietary investment group investing in esoteric high yield credit products mid 2000s and we had a CRE lending group that did a lot of the same u til Commerzbank bought a large European CRE lending operations called Eurohypo. Those guys would contribute large floating rate loans to a cmbs “shelf” called GG that was run by Goldman Sachs and Greenwich Capital Markets (RBS). The REITs include any 1st or 2nd tier (they rank their lender relationships largely on how much you contribute to their revolving credit facilities and other low margin banking products) in the rotation for term loans and capital markets (CMBS) financings where you make your money as no matter what laws are in place, base credit is totally still tied to other economics of lenders and largely provided at cost to the banks. (Banks are fundamentally in the business of buying and selling money at the end of the day)
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:11 am
old salt wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:21 pm Esper only received a 1 hr verbal briefing. He intends to review the written inquiry & record, then meet again with Navy officials before he decides. He'd be criticized for acting in haste if he did not. He'd also be derelict if he did not consult the President on this. The TR's not going anywhere yet & Crozier's still in quarantine.

Despite the dire predictions by Crozier & "experts" in this forum, only 1 TR sailor perished (RIP) after several days off the ship, & he wasn't even among the few who were hospitalized. Only a handful of the crew went into ICU.

Despite all the drama & hype, it still took a week to get the entire crew ashore who were going ashore & into hotels. Now some of them who tested negative are now testing positive & are asymptomatic. Zero positives in a crew of 5000 may be an unattainable & unrealistic standard.

The USN/USMC team, from DC to Guam, did a great job surging to care for the TR crew.
Crozier's signal flare was well intended but not necessary (imho).
Of course, we don't know what the timetable, and thus spread, would have been without the 'signal flare'.
The virus spreads exponentially, so hours, much less days, mattered.
Given the way the Big Stick's herd has faced down the virus (thanks to their overall fitness, health, youth & prompt medical attention) they might have been even closer to the inevitable herd immunity which will be necessary for them to deploy. Previous negative sailors, isolated in hotels, are now testing positive, though healthy & asymptomatic. Let's see what the CDC antibody testing of the 1000 TR sailors yields.

The Chief who didn't make it might have survived with prompt medical attention, which he did not receive due to his isolation ashore.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:14 pm They just held a piece of the risk for 2-4mo until it was securitized. It’s more likely the lead lender wanted to rent their balance sheet at the time, but I worked for a German bank called Commerzbank in a proprietary investment group investing in esoteric high yield credit products mid 2000s and we had a CRE lending group that did a lot of the same u til Commerzbank bought a large European CRE lending operations called Eurohypo. Those guys would contribute large floating rate loans to a cmbs “shelf” called GG that was run by Goldman Sachs and Greenwich Capital Markets (RBS). The REITs include any 1st or 2nd tier (they rank their lender relationships largely on how much you contribute to their revolving credit facilities and other low margin banking products) in the rotation for term loans and capital markets (CMBS) financings where you make your money as no matter what laws are in place, base credit is totally still tied to other economics of lenders and largely provided at cost to the banks. (Banks are fundamentally in the business of buying and selling money at the end of the day)
Thanks. I sold some loans to Commerzbank many moons ago.
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

old salt wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:39 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:11 am
old salt wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:21 pm Esper only received a 1 hr verbal briefing. He intends to review the written inquiry & record, then meet again with Navy officials before he decides. He'd be criticized for acting in haste if he did not. He'd also be derelict if he did not consult the President on this. The TR's not going anywhere yet & Crozier's still in quarantine.

Despite the dire predictions by Crozier & "experts" in this forum, only 1 TR sailor perished (RIP) after several days off the ship, & he wasn't even among the few who were hospitalized. Only a handful of the crew went into ICU.

Despite all the drama & hype, it still took a week to get the entire crew ashore who were going ashore & into hotels. Now some of them who tested negative are now testing positive & are asymptomatic. Zero positives in a crew of 5000 may be an unattainable & unrealistic standard.

The USN/USMC team, from DC to Guam, did a great job surging to care for the TR crew.
Crozier's signal flare was well intended but not necessary (imho).
Of course, we don't know what the timetable, and thus spread, would have been without the 'signal flare'.
The virus spreads exponentially, so hours, much less days, mattered.
Given the way the Big Stick's herd has faced down the virus (thanks to their overall fitness, health, youth & prompt medical attention) they might have been even closer to the inevitable herd immunity which will be necessary for them to deploy. Previous negative sailors, isolated in hotels, are now testing positive, though healthy & asymptomatic. Let's see what the CDC antibody testing of the 1000 TR sailors yields.

The Chief who didn't make it might have survived with prompt medical attention, which he did not receive due to his isolation ashore.
Again, you state as if fact what you really don't know. Including that the chief "did not receive" "prompt medical attention" "due to his isolation ashore". Maybe it was prompt, maybe it was not, maybe it wouldn't have mattered.

We also have zero idea at this point whether there will even be immunity, much less herd immunity, with all those who show antibodies. It appears that there are varying types of antibodies being detected and varying levels...what will create actual immunity, if any?

Likewise, the 'best' explanation we've been getting so far about why some young people are succumbing to the virus, hard, whether death or just really rough with possible permanent damage, is 'viral load'. Lots and lots of virus exposure appears to be able to overcome young people, including with no other risk factor. Would the viral load have grown with more time packed together, more sailors becoming heavy spreaders of the virus?

It's all conjecture right now, with our best 'bets' being only based on our current, evolving knowledge. And that's still pretty darn scanty.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:26 pm
old salt wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:39 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:11 am
old salt wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:21 pm Esper only received a 1 hr verbal briefing. He intends to review the written inquiry & record, then meet again with Navy officials before he decides. He'd be criticized for acting in haste if he did not. He'd also be derelict if he did not consult the President on this. The TR's not going anywhere yet & Crozier's still in quarantine.

Despite the dire predictions by Crozier & "experts" in this forum, only 1 TR sailor perished (RIP) after several days off the ship, & he wasn't even among the few who were hospitalized. Only a handful of the crew went into ICU.

Despite all the drama & hype, it still took a week to get the entire crew ashore who were going ashore & into hotels. Now some of them who tested negative are now testing positive & are asymptomatic. Zero positives in a crew of 5000 may be an unattainable & unrealistic standard.

The USN/USMC team, from DC to Guam, did a great job surging to care for the TR crew.
Crozier's signal flare was well intended but not necessary (imho).
Of course, we don't know what the timetable, and thus spread, would have been without the 'signal flare'.
The virus spreads exponentially, so hours, much less days, mattered.
Given the way the Big Stick's herd has faced down the virus (thanks to their overall fitness, health, youth & prompt medical attention) they might have been even closer to the inevitable herd immunity which will be necessary for them to deploy. Previous negative sailors, isolated in hotels, are now testing positive, though healthy & asymptomatic. Let's see what the CDC antibody testing of the 1000 TR sailors yields.

The Chief who didn't make it might have survived with prompt medical attention, which he did not receive due to his isolation ashore.
Again, you state as if fact what you really don't know. Including that the chief "did not receive" "prompt medical attention" "due to his isolation ashore". Maybe it was prompt, maybe it was not, maybe it wouldn't have mattered.
The reporting is that he was isolated in a house with 3 shipmates. Assume they each had a single room, like the sailors in the hotels. He was discovered unresponsive at 0830. That they were just checked by medial personnel twice daily. That's much more isolated than being aboard ship or even in the gym, on cots, which is where positives displaying any symptom were berthed.

We also have zero idea at this point whether there will even be immunity, much less herd immunity, with all those who show antibodies. It appears that there are varying types of antibodies being detected and varying levels...what will create actual immunity, if any?
Mich more than zero idea. We're in our 6th month of infections with hundreds of thousands of known cases. How many reinfections ?

Likewise, the 'best' explanation we've been getting so far about why some young people are succumbing to the virus, hard, whether death or just really rough with possible permanent damage, is 'viral load'. Lots and lots of virus exposure appears to be able to overcome young people, including with no other risk factor. Would the viral load have grown with more time packed together, more sailors becoming heavy spreaders of the virus?
We have hundreds of thousands of known healthy survivors, & likely multiples of that, still unknown.

It's all conjecture right now, with our best 'bets' being only based on our current, evolving knowledge. And that's still pretty darn scanty.
For conjecture, you're asserting things with great certainty.
I like my odds better if I were 30 - 50 years younger, back aboard ship again, scoring outstanding on the PRT.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

old salt wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:25 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:26 pm
old salt wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:39 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:11 am
old salt wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:21 pm Esper only received a 1 hr verbal briefing. He intends to review the written inquiry & record, then meet again with Navy officials before he decides. He'd be criticized for acting in haste if he did not. He'd also be derelict if he did not consult the President on this. The TR's not going anywhere yet & Crozier's still in quarantine.

Despite the dire predictions by Crozier & "experts" in this forum, only 1 TR sailor perished (RIP) after several days off the ship, & he wasn't even among the few who were hospitalized. Only a handful of the crew went into ICU.

Despite all the drama & hype, it still took a week to get the entire crew ashore who were going ashore & into hotels. Now some of them who tested negative are now testing positive & are asymptomatic. Zero positives in a crew of 5000 may be an unattainable & unrealistic standard.

The USN/USMC team, from DC to Guam, did a great job surging to care for the TR crew.
Crozier's signal flare was well intended but not necessary (imho).
Of course, we don't know what the timetable, and thus spread, would have been without the 'signal flare'.
The virus spreads exponentially, so hours, much less days, mattered.
Given the way the Big Stick's herd has faced down the virus (thanks to their overall fitness, health, youth & prompt medical attention) they might have been even closer to the inevitable herd immunity which will be necessary for them to deploy. Previous negative sailors, isolated in hotels, are now testing positive, though healthy & asymptomatic. Let's see what the CDC antibody testing of the 1000 TR sailors yields.

The Chief who didn't make it might have survived with prompt medical attention, which he did not receive due to his isolation ashore.
Again, you state as if fact what you really don't know. Including that the chief "did not receive" "prompt medical attention" "due to his isolation ashore". Maybe it was prompt, maybe it was not, maybe it wouldn't have mattered.
The reporting is that he was isolated in a house with 3 shipmates. Assume they each had a single room, like the sailors in the hotels. He was discovered unresponsive at 0830. That they were just checked by medial personnel twice daily. That's much more isolated than being aboard ship or even in the gym, on cots, which is where positives displaying any symptom were berthed.

We also have zero idea at this point whether there will even be immunity, much less herd immunity, with all those who show antibodies. It appears that there are varying types of antibodies being detected and varying levels...what will create actual immunity, if any?
Mich more than zero idea. We're in our 6th month of infections with hundreds of thousands of known cases. How many reinfections ?

Likewise, the 'best' explanation we've been getting so far about why some young people are succumbing to the virus, hard, whether death or just really rough with possible permanent damage, is 'viral load'. Lots and lots of virus exposure appears to be able to overcome young people, including with no other risk factor. Would the viral load have grown with more time packed together, more sailors becoming heavy spreaders of the virus?
We have hundreds of thousands of known healthy survivors, & likely multiples of that, still unknown.

It's all conjecture right now, with our best 'bets' being only based on our current, evolving knowledge. And that's still pretty darn scanty.
For conjecture, you're asserting things with great certainty.
I like my odds better if I were 30 - 50 years younger, back aboard ship again, scoring outstanding on the PRT.
I like my odds if I were 30-50 years younger too!

That's easy.

But no, we're not 6 months into known, tracked cases. Less than 4 full months, and only two months in the US.
And we definitely don't know whether people who were asymptomatic carriers for a period, didn't later have increased viral load and that's when they became symptomatic and were actually tested.

there's anecdotal evidence that reinfection can occur, but no controlled studies or tracking yet to determine how and who is susceptible to such, and whether they can be identified from those with more sustained immunity. And obviously no data on long immunity periods, season over season.

You're not dumb, Salty, you just play dumb at times.

on the single rooms...who knows whether someone sleeping would have been noticed as 'unresponsive' sooner...depends on how long he'd actually been 'unresponsive'...versus sleeping...

We simply don't know this stuff. No reason to pretend such certainty.

As to my own 'certainty' that's primarily my confidence as to what we DO NOT YET KNOW...in other words we're operating in highly 'uncertain' hostile territory. So, proceed with your head up.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:44 pm
old salt wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:25 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:26 pm
old salt wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:39 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:11 am
old salt wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:21 pm Esper only received a 1 hr verbal briefing. He intends to review the written inquiry & record, then meet again with Navy officials before he decides. He'd be criticized for acting in haste if he did not. He'd also be derelict if he did not consult the President on this. The TR's not going anywhere yet & Crozier's still in quarantine.

Despite the dire predictions by Crozier & "experts" in this forum, only 1 TR sailor perished (RIP) after several days off the ship, & he wasn't even among the few who were hospitalized. Only a handful of the crew went into ICU.

Despite all the drama & hype, it still took a week to get the entire crew ashore who were going ashore & into hotels. Now some of them who tested negative are now testing positive & are asymptomatic. Zero positives in a crew of 5000 may be an unattainable & unrealistic standard.

The USN/USMC team, from DC to Guam, did a great job surging to care for the TR crew.
Crozier's signal flare was well intended but not necessary (imho).
Of course, we don't know what the timetable, and thus spread, would have been without the 'signal flare'.
The virus spreads exponentially, so hours, much less days, mattered.
Given the way the Big Stick's herd has faced down the virus (thanks to their overall fitness, health, youth & prompt medical attention) they might have been even closer to the inevitable herd immunity which will be necessary for them to deploy. Previous negative sailors, isolated in hotels, are now testing positive, though healthy & asymptomatic. Let's see what the CDC antibody testing of the 1000 TR sailors yields.

The Chief who didn't make it might have survived with prompt medical attention, which he did not receive due to his isolation ashore.
Again, you state as if fact what you really don't know. Including that the chief "did not receive" "prompt medical attention" "due to his isolation ashore". Maybe it was prompt, maybe it was not, maybe it wouldn't have mattered.
The reporting is that he was isolated in a house with 3 shipmates. Assume they each had a single room, like the sailors in the hotels. He was discovered unresponsive at 0830. That they were just checked by medial personnel twice daily. That's much more isolated than being aboard ship or even in the gym, on cots, which is where positives displaying any symptom were berthed.

We also have zero idea at this point whether there will even be immunity, much less herd immunity, with all those who show antibodies. It appears that there are varying types of antibodies being detected and varying levels...what will create actual immunity, if any?
Mich more than zero idea. We're in our 6th month of infections with hundreds of thousands of known cases. How many reinfections ?

Likewise, the 'best' explanation we've been getting so far about why some young people are succumbing to the virus, hard, whether death or just really rough with possible permanent damage, is 'viral load'. Lots and lots of virus exposure appears to be able to overcome young people, including with no other risk factor. Would the viral load have grown with more time packed together, more sailors becoming heavy spreaders of the virus?
We have hundreds of thousands of known healthy survivors, & likely multiples of that, still unknown.

It's all conjecture right now, with our best 'bets' being only based on our current, evolving knowledge. And that's still pretty darn scanty.
For conjecture, you're asserting things with great certainty.
I like my odds better if I were 30 - 50 years younger, back aboard ship again, scoring outstanding on the PRT.
I like my odds if I were 30-50 years younger too!

That's easy.

But no, we're not 6 months into known, tracked cases. Less than 4 full months, and only two months in the US.
And we definitely don't know whether people who were asymptomatic carriers for a period, didn't later have increased viral load and that's when they became symptomatic and were actually tested.

there's anecdotal evidence that reinfection can occur, but no controlled studies or tracking yet to determine how and who is susceptible to such, and whether they can be identified from those with more sustained immunity. And obviously no data on long immunity periods, season over season.

You're not dumb, Salty, you just play dumb at times.

on the single rooms...who knows whether someone sleeping would have been noticed as 'unresponsive' sooner...depends on how long he'd actually been 'unresponsive'...versus sleeping...

We simply don't know this stuff. No reason to pretend such certainty.

As to my own 'certainty' that's primarily my confidence as to what we DO NOT YET KNOW...in other words we're operating in highly 'uncertain' hostile territory. So, proceed with your head up.
We do know that the Chief died after being found unresponsive by his housemates at 0830, who attemped CPR. The report noted that they were checked twice daily by med staff. Anything that would have caused him to be discovered sooner & received life saving medical attention earlier, would have increased his chances of survival. I hope we learn more about the circumstances of his time in quarantine.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

old salt wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:17 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:44 pm
old salt wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:25 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:26 pm
old salt wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:39 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:11 am
old salt wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:21 pm Esper only received a 1 hr verbal briefing. He intends to review the written inquiry & record, then meet again with Navy officials before he decides. He'd be criticized for acting in haste if he did not. He'd also be derelict if he did not consult the President on this. The TR's not going anywhere yet & Crozier's still in quarantine.

Despite the dire predictions by Crozier & "experts" in this forum, only 1 TR sailor perished (RIP) after several days off the ship, & he wasn't even among the few who were hospitalized. Only a handful of the crew went into ICU.

Despite all the drama & hype, it still took a week to get the entire crew ashore who were going ashore & into hotels. Now some of them who tested negative are now testing positive & are asymptomatic. Zero positives in a crew of 5000 may be an unattainable & unrealistic standard.

The USN/USMC team, from DC to Guam, did a great job surging to care for the TR crew.
Crozier's signal flare was well intended but not necessary (imho).
Of course, we don't know what the timetable, and thus spread, would have been without the 'signal flare'.
The virus spreads exponentially, so hours, much less days, mattered.
Given the way the Big Stick's herd has faced down the virus (thanks to their overall fitness, health, youth & prompt medical attention) they might have been even closer to the inevitable herd immunity which will be necessary for them to deploy. Previous negative sailors, isolated in hotels, are now testing positive, though healthy & asymptomatic. Let's see what the CDC antibody testing of the 1000 TR sailors yields.

The Chief who didn't make it might have survived with prompt medical attention, which he did not receive due to his isolation ashore.
Again, you state as if fact what you really don't know. Including that the chief "did not receive" "prompt medical attention" "due to his isolation ashore". Maybe it was prompt, maybe it was not, maybe it wouldn't have mattered.
The reporting is that he was isolated in a house with 3 shipmates. Assume they each had a single room, like the sailors in the hotels. He was discovered unresponsive at 0830. That they were just checked by medial personnel twice daily. That's much more isolated than being aboard ship or even in the gym, on cots, which is where positives displaying any symptom were berthed.

We also have zero idea at this point whether there will even be immunity, much less herd immunity, with all those who show antibodies. It appears that there are varying types of antibodies being detected and varying levels...what will create actual immunity, if any?
Mich more than zero idea. We're in our 6th month of infections with hundreds of thousands of known cases. How many reinfections ?

Likewise, the 'best' explanation we've been getting so far about why some young people are succumbing to the virus, hard, whether death or just really rough with possible permanent damage, is 'viral load'. Lots and lots of virus exposure appears to be able to overcome young people, including with no other risk factor. Would the viral load have grown with more time packed together, more sailors becoming heavy spreaders of the virus?
We have hundreds of thousands of known healthy survivors, & likely multiples of that, still unknown.

It's all conjecture right now, with our best 'bets' being only based on our current, evolving knowledge. And that's still pretty darn scanty.
For conjecture, you're asserting things with great certainty.
I like my odds better if I were 30 - 50 years younger, back aboard ship again, scoring outstanding on the PRT.
I like my odds if I were 30-50 years younger too!

That's easy.

But no, we're not 6 months into known, tracked cases. Less than 4 full months, and only two months in the US.
And we definitely don't know whether people who were asymptomatic carriers for a period, didn't later have increased viral load and that's when they became symptomatic and were actually tested.

there's anecdotal evidence that reinfection can occur, but no controlled studies or tracking yet to determine how and who is susceptible to such, and whether they can be identified from those with more sustained immunity. And obviously no data on long immunity periods, season over season.

You're not dumb, Salty, you just play dumb at times.

on the single rooms...who knows whether someone sleeping would have been noticed as 'unresponsive' sooner...depends on how long he'd actually been 'unresponsive'...versus sleeping...

We simply don't know this stuff. No reason to pretend such certainty.

As to my own 'certainty' that's primarily my confidence as to what we DO NOT YET KNOW...in other words we're operating in highly 'uncertain' hostile territory. So, proceed with your head up.
We do know that the Chief died after being found unresponsive by his housemates at 0830, who attemped CPR. The report noted that they were checked twice daily by med staff. Anything that would have caused him to be discovered sooner & received life saving medical attention earlier, would have increased his chances of survival. I hope we learn more about the circumstances of his time in quarantine.
no serious argument, I just don't think it's going to be all that simple to know how long he was actually beyond (medical) reach, yet appeared simply sleeping. I think we're going to be left not knowing for sure. That is, unless he had a stroke or similar sudden event and they can narrow that down to a specific window...and that such event would have been noticed by others swiftly enough to have done something. Maybe.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

Navy leadership is anxious to restore Crozier to command of the TR. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (this one's an Army General), is saying -- not so fast. If you're going to take an unprecedented step like that, it needs to be based upon a thorough formal investigation, not a rushed informal inquiry conducted electronically from DC. I'm betting Esper sides with Milley & we get a formal investigation, unless Trump urges otherwise.

Even Crozier's most vocal Congressional supporter says his actions were "imperfect".

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/2 ... rus-208027

Big Stick sailors say thanks to the Marines helping care for them :

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/us ... m-1.627120

Down to 6 crew members in hospital, none serious.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Looks like Kim Jung Un May be gonzo?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-kim-jon ... 17?mod=mhp
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Trinity
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Trinity »

To accommodate Trump’s decision to speak at West Point, cadets will be called back, tested off campus, then isolated for 14 days in rooms with masks. They’ll eat in segregated groups. No decision on whether family members may attend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/p ... point.html
“I don’t take responsibility at all.” —Donald J Trump
seacoaster
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by seacoaster »

Trinity wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:02 pm To accommodate Trump’s decision to speak at West Point, cadets will be called back, tested off campus, then isolated for 14 days in rooms with masks. They’ll eat in segregated groups. No decision on whether family members may attend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/p ... point.html
He needs a stage with good optics. What’s the big deal with putting people to trouble or in peril. We just have TDS.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

seacoaster wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:54 pm
Trinity wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:02 pm To accommodate Trump’s decision to speak at West Point, cadets will be called back, tested off campus, then isolated for 14 days in rooms with masks. They’ll eat in segregated groups. No decision on whether family members may attend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/p ... point.html
He needs a stage with good optics. What’s the big deal with putting people to trouble or in peril. We just have TDS.
.:roll:. ...it was one of the options USMA leadership proposed. They had nearly 2 mos advance confirmation.
The graduating class has to go back anyway to collect their belongs & uniforms, turn in their gear & out process.
Most probably went on spring breal in their new cars & can drive back, rather than having to fly through NYC.
They can also fly ANG airlifts or charters into nearby Stewart AFB from hub airports around the country, so they don't have to fly through NYC.
WP houses > 4000 cadets, plenty of room for each to have his own room. They can study & take their finals during those 14 days.
The Army's still operating. The new 2nd Lt's will need to travel to their new units anyway,
Esper will probably lift the military travel restriction by then. This is the time of year when most change of station moves happen.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:01 pm
seacoaster wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:54 pm
Trinity wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:02 pm To accommodate Trump’s decision to speak at West Point, cadets will be called back, tested off campus, then isolated for 14 days in rooms with masks. They’ll eat in segregated groups. No decision on whether family members may attend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/p ... point.html
He needs a stage with good optics. What’s the big deal with putting people to trouble or in peril. We just have TDS.
.:roll:. ...it was one of the options USMA leadership proposed. They had nearly 2 mos advance confirmation.
The graduating class has to go back anyway to collect their belongs & uniforms, turn in their gear & out process.
Most probably went on spring breal in their new cars & can drive back, rather than having to fly through NYC.
They can also fly ANG airlifts or charters into nearby Stewart AFB from hub airports around the country, so they don't have to fly through NYC.
WP houses > 4000 cadets, plenty of room for each to have his own room. They can study & take their finals during those 14 days.
The Army's still operating. The new 2nd Lt's will need to travel to their new units anyway,
Esper will probably lift the military travel restriction by then. This is the time of year when most change of station moves happen.
# Defending Trump is a Choice
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:10 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:01 pm
seacoaster wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:54 pm
Trinity wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:02 pm To accommodate Trump’s decision to speak at West Point, cadets will be called back, tested off campus, then isolated for 14 days in rooms with masks. They’ll eat in segregated groups. No decision on whether family members may attend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/p ... point.html
He needs a stage with good optics. What’s the big deal with putting people to trouble or in peril. We just have TDS.
.:roll:. ...it was one of the options USMA leadership proposed. They had nearly 2 mos advance confirmation.
The graduating class has to go back anyway to collect their belongs & uniforms, turn in their gear & out process.
Most probably went on spring breal in their new cars & can drive back, rather than having to fly through NYC.
They can also fly ANG airlifts or charters into nearby Stewart AFB from hub airports around the country, so they don't have to fly through NYC.
WP houses > 4000 cadets, plenty of room for each to have his own room. They can study & take their finals during those 14 days.
The Army's still operating. The new 2nd Lt's will need to travel to their new units anyway,
Esper will probably lift the military travel restriction by then. This is the time of year when most change of station moves happen.
# Defending Trump is a Choice
# TDS tourettes.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:18 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:10 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:01 pm
seacoaster wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:54 pm
Trinity wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:02 pm To accommodate Trump’s decision to speak at West Point, cadets will be called back, tested off campus, then isolated for 14 days in rooms with masks. They’ll eat in segregated groups. No decision on whether family members may attend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/p ... point.html
He needs a stage with good optics. What’s the big deal with putting people to trouble or in peril. We just have TDS.
.:roll:. ...it was one of the options USMA leadership proposed. They had nearly 2 mos advance confirmation.
The graduating class has to go back anyway to collect their belongs & uniforms, turn in their gear & out process.
Most probably went on spring breal in their new cars & can drive back, rather than having to fly through NYC.
They can also fly ANG airlifts or charters into nearby Stewart AFB from hub airports around the country, so they don't have to fly through NYC.
WP houses > 4000 cadets, plenty of room for each to have his own room. They can study & take their finals during those 14 days.
The Army's still operating. The new 2nd Lt's will need to travel to their new units anyway,
Esper will probably lift the military travel restriction by then. This is the time of year when most change of station moves happen.
# Defending Trump is a Choice
# TDS tourettes.
# Defending Trump is a Choice
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
seacoaster
Posts: 8866
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by seacoaster »

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:01 pm
seacoaster wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:54 pm
Trinity wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:02 pm To accommodate Trump’s decision to speak at West Point, cadets will be called back, tested off campus, then isolated for 14 days in rooms with masks. They’ll eat in segregated groups. No decision on whether family members may attend.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/p ... point.html
He needs a stage with good optics. What’s the big deal with putting people to trouble or in peril. We just have TDS.
.:roll:. ...it was one of the options USMA leadership proposed. They had nearly 2 mos advance confirmation.
The graduating class has to go back anyway to collect their belongs & uniforms, turn in their gear & out process.
Most probably went on spring breal in their new cars & can drive back, rather than having to fly through NYC.
They can also fly ANG airlifts or charters into nearby Stewart AFB from hub airports around the country, so they don't have to fly through NYC.
WP houses > 4000 cadets, plenty of room for each to have his own room. They can study & take their finals during those 14 days.
The Army's still operating. The new 2nd Lt's will need to travel to their new units anyway,
Esper will probably lift the military travel restriction by then. This is the time of year when most change of station moves happen.
Sweet eye roll emoji. You know that this is an unnecessary thing for the President to do or convene. No one said anything about the newly commissioned getting their belongings, etc. It's that these cadets will simply constitute a prop -- little dressed up ornaments -- for Trump to speak AT.
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