The Nation's Financial Condition

[a fan]

Governor Newsom begins innovating during this crisis in California. Every bit helps.

Headline: Gov. Newsom: California will pay restaurants to make, deliver meals to senior citizens


https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/04/24 ... Fdjy3acBtE

[ardilla secreta]

Coronavirus Impact: Half of San Francisco restaurants expected to close
as industry bracing for big changes during pandemic

https://abc7news.com/san-francisco-rest ... n/6128018/

This probably applies to everywhere.

[Peter Brown]

maybe read this: 15 reasons why the government is so wasteful.

https://www.cato.org/publications/comme ... o-wasteful

A very laughable (pseudo libertarian Koch source) document. Makes claims it actually cannot/does not back up with data, and fails to use the same level of criticism on the many failures of the free market as have happened in the US (healthcare that serves to drive massive profits into the hands of a small number of healthy individuals at the expense of the public is a great example - we pay about double what we should for non-universal healthcare). Makes assumption about the free market that are not actually evident.

Really?

Sorry Cato doesn't meet your standards.

The Washington Post?

There are more political rewards for federal policymakers to add new programs and expand existing ones than to weed out low‐​priority programs and waste. Guess who spends all of their previous year's budget allotment just before September 30 every fiscal year?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

Politifact?

Disciplining federal workers is difficult and they are rarely fired, which can result in agencies carrying heavy loads of poor performers.


https://www.politifact.com/article/2007 ... n-federal/

You must make ZERO decisions at your company if you think that you don't find these EXACT same problems at Corporations in America, and the world.

How's Boeing doing these days? Awesome, flawless company, right?

Oh man, bureaucracy doesn't exist at all in the private sector. Didn't you read your Ayn Rand?

It's not what you know, it's who you know in the hiring process Easy to slide into a middle manager role doing a few hours of work a week when you know someone. That nephew or frat brother's daughter or someone who knows someone ends up sitting around doing nothing while making bank and p!ssing off the employees when they boss them around.

Life Pro Tip for PB and others: If you're interviewing at a company says "we run this business like a family" or "we think of employees like family", run away as fast as you can.

Not even worth the time to read these kinds of replies; they show a fundamental disconnect with both private enterprise and human connection.

[MDlaxfan76]

maybe read this: 15 reasons why the government is so wasteful.

https://www.cato.org/publications/comme ... o-wasteful

A very laughable (pseudo libertarian Koch source) document. Makes claims it actually cannot/does not back up with data, and fails to use the same level of criticism on the many failures of the free market as have happened in the US (healthcare that serves to drive massive profits into the hands of a small number of healthy individuals at the expense of the public is a great example - we pay about double what we should for non-universal healthcare). Makes assumption about the free market that are not actually evident.

Really?

Sorry Cato doesn't meet your standards.

The Washington Post?

There are more political rewards for federal policymakers to add new programs and expand existing ones than to weed out low‐​priority programs and waste. Guess who spends all of their previous year's budget allotment just before September 30 every fiscal year?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

Politifact?

Disciplining federal workers is difficult and they are rarely fired, which can result in agencies carrying heavy loads of poor performers.


https://www.politifact.com/article/2007 ... n-federal/

You must make ZERO decisions at your company if you think that you don't find these EXACT same problems at Corporations in America, and the world.

How's Boeing doing these days? Awesome, flawless company, right?

Oh man, bureaucracy doesn't exist at all in the private sector. Didn't you read your Ayn Rand?

It's not what you know, it's who you know in the hiring process Easy to slide into a middle manager role doing a few hours of work a week when you know someone. That nephew or frat brother's daughter or someone who knows someone ends up sitting around doing nothing while making bank and p!ssing off the employees when they boss them around.

Life Pro Tip for PB and others: If you're interviewing at a company says "we run this business like a family" or "we think of employees like family", run away as fast as you can.

Not even worth the time to read these kinds of replies; they show a fundamental disconnect with both private enterprise and human connection.

[Peter Brown]

If we start re-opening sooner than later, and if vaccines accelerate faster as I suspect, and if the data is robust, and if testing is rolled out everywhere also as I suspect no later than June 15, the stock market will race north of 30,000 quite fast.

No negative nabob cheering for economic collapse can win a battle against zero interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/st ... od=markets

[CU88]

Crises nearly always create political upheaval. In recent history the catastrophes of 9/11 and the Great Recession both defined American politics for the decade that came after each event.

The crisis of Covid-19, which has already killed far more Americans than the 9/11 attacks and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that were waged in response, seems likely to have a similar effect. And while the political impact of a deadly pandemic is by no means the most important question of the moment, the Trump administration’s embrace of a massive government intervention to cushion the economic impact of our national self-quarantine has intensified a debate on the right about Republicans and the role of government.

Anyone who watched the 2009 stimulus debate has to be flabbergasted by the Republican response in 2020. Back then, President Barack Obama struggled to pass a $900 billion bill even as his top economists believed the country needed a package several times that size. The Obama stimulus received no Republican votes in the House and three Republican votes in the Senate, including Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter, who soon joined the Democratic Party.


Congressional Republicans in 2020 have embraced $2 trillion — and counting — in stimulus with almost no resistance.


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/2 ... ver-210512

[CU88]

If we start re-opening sooner than later, and if vaccines accelerate faster as I suspect, and if the data is robust, and if testing is rolled out everywhere also as I suspect no later than June 15, the stock market will race north of 30,000 quite fast.

No negative nabob cheering for economic collapse can win a battle against zero interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/st ... od=markets

So if all of your assumptions "happen", where is the job recovery and unemployment tracking along this time line?

[Peter Brown]

If we start re-opening sooner than later, and if vaccines accelerate faster as I suspect, and if the data is robust, and if testing is rolled out everywhere also as I suspect no later than June 15, the stock market will race north of 30,000 quite fast.

No negative nabob cheering for economic collapse can win a battle against zero interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/st ... od=markets

So if all of your assumptions "happen", where is the job recovery and unemployment tracking along this time line?

Going to be a slower rebound for employment than the stock market. Which is too bad, but perhaps was going to occur anyway.

This crisis may have far reaching systemic changes in employment issues, where some folks may end up in fact living permanently off of UBI.

Let me add this: there is always a demand for top-shelf talent, in any company. The irony of a crisis like this is it may directly force employees to 'up their game'.

[Farfromgeneva]

If we start re-opening sooner than later, and if vaccines accelerate faster as I suspect, and if the data is robust, and if testing is rolled out everywhere also as I suspect no later than June 15, the stock market will race north of 30,000 quite fast.

No negative nabob cheering for economic collapse can win a battle against zero interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/st ... od=markets

A. The S&P is going to get to 30,000 in June? Because the Dow Jones Industrial is an arbitrary, price weighted index of 30 companies, not at all “the stock market”.
B. Japan has had zero rates for quite a while, there’s no correlation between low or zero rates and higher stock market prices. Guess how long the Nikkei is flat for? Since 1991 you’d have had a zero nominal return invested in that indices. In fact higher rates typically means higher inflation which means higher economic growth, not the other way around.

You really should learn more of finance and markets if you’re going to continue to insist that every time a stupid, useless index not utilized by 99.8% of the professionals and deeply involved investment community is up for a fleeting moment means all is good in the country. It’s beyond annoying and just dumb. Should be more concerned that front month, effectively June, WTI contracts are down like $4/bbl this morning.

[MDlaxfan76]

If we start re-opening sooner than later, and if vaccines accelerate faster as I suspect, and if the data is robust, and if testing is rolled out everywhere also as I suspect no later than June 15, the stock market will race north of 30,000 quite fast.

No negative nabob cheering for economic collapse can win a battle against zero interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/st ... od=markets

IF...a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his -ss every time he jumps.

Yes, the fiscal and monetary stimulus is massive.
But real economic activity is going to remain dampened for an extended period of time.

No one I know, and certainly no one on these boards, is rooting for that to happen much less 'economic collapse'.
We're all rooting for this to be managed as well as possible, as soberly as possible, and for the country to adjust and ultimately emerge changed more positively than negatively at the end.

[dislaxxic]

Saying the coming stock market rebound will be a legitimate reason Chump should be reelected makes about as much sense as electing him in the first place. Chump should not be reelected for ANY reason, period. Really believe he will reap what he has been sowing these past 3 years, which is to say an extended period of prosecution for the multiple crimes he has perpetrated.

Who else is looking forward to Michael Cohen's tell all?? The prospect of that'll keep ol' Don the Con up at night scarfing cheeseburglers and beautiful big hunks of chocolate cake all night...

..

[youthathletics]

If we start re-opening sooner than later, and if vaccines accelerate faster as I suspect, and if the data is robust, and if testing is rolled out everywhere also as I suspect no later than June 15, the stock market will race north of 30,000 quite fast.

No negative nabob cheering for economic collapse can win a battle against zero interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/st ... od=markets

IF...a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his -ss every time he jumps.

Yes, the fiscal and monetary stimulus is massive.
But real economic activity is going to remain dampened for an extended period of time.

No one I know, and certainly no one on these boards, is rooting for that to happen much less 'economic collapse'.
We're all rooting for this to be managed as well as possible, as soberly as possible, and for the country to adjust and ultimately emerge changed more positively than negatively at the end.

This would be a great time to introduce a new flat tax or some iteration of the consumption tax that afan is so fond of.

Worth the listen starting at the 38:00 minute mark with Art Laffer

[Peter Brown]

If we start re-opening sooner than later, and if vaccines accelerate faster as I suspect, and if the data is robust, and if testing is rolled out everywhere also as I suspect no later than June 15, the stock market will race north of 30,000 quite fast.

No negative nabob cheering for economic collapse can win a battle against zero interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/st ... od=markets

A. The S&P is going to get to 30,000 in June? Because the Dow Jones Industrial is an arbitrary, price weighted index of 30 companies, not at all “the stock market”.
B. Japan has had zero rates for quite a while, there’s no correlation between low or zero rates and higher stock market prices. Guess how long the Nikkei is flat for? Since 1991 you’d have had a zero nominal return invested in that indices. In fact higher rates typically means higher inflation which means higher economic growth, not the other way around.

You really should learn more of finance and markets if you’re going to continue to insist that every time a stupid, useless index not utilized by 99.8% of the professionals and deeply involved investment community is up for a fleeting moment means all is good in the country. It’s beyond annoying and just dumb. Should be more concerned that front month, effectively June, WTI contracts are down like $4/bbl this morning.

1. We aren't Japan. (https://fortune.com/2019/08/01/fed-rate ... ion-japan/)
2. I take my investing cues from the hedge funds I'm invested in, and I promise, they know their stuff!
3. The Dow will get to 30,000, not the S&P
4. Oil prices are double edged coins; some days you think it's the end of the world, other days it's the best thing to happen to our economy; for me personally, the more oil stays low, the more our customers enjoy better prices

[MDlaxfan76]

not exactly persuasive, PB.

[Farfromgeneva]

The hedge fund is called Bayou Funds run by a close relative of Sammy Israel.

[Peter Brown]

not exactly persuasive, PB.

Am I supposed to write long, drawn-out theses now?

Hey, I really don't care if you guys are long or short the market. I know what looks probable, not certain, and that's how I calibrate investments, both into managers as well as style, as well as personal stuff like real estate.

America always wins provided we have a stable SCOTUS. That's my one and only answer for everything on this board and elsewhere no matter the topic. If you had 9 Neil Gorsuch's and zero Sotomajor's, everyone here would sleep better and everyone's portfolios would be significantly more stable. If you need to understand why, you probably haven't accomplished much in life.

Back to work!!!!

[MDlaxfan76]

not exactly persuasive, PB.

Am I supposed to write long, drawn-out theses now?

Hey, I really don't care if you guys are long or short the market. I know what looks probable, not certain, and that's how I calibrate investments, both into managers as well as style, as well as personal stuff like real estate.

America always wins provided we have a stable SCOTUS. That's my one and only answer for everything on this board and elsewhere no matter the topic. If you had 9 Neil Gorsuch's and zero Sotomajor's, everyone here would sleep better and everyone's portfolios would be significantly more stable. If you need to understand why, you probably haven't accomplished much in life.

Back to work!!!!

yup, double down on lack of actual rationale.
No actual clue on economics.
Just trolling re politics.

A "stable SCOTUS" would be "9 Neil Gorsuch's"...

BTW, I think we know what you do for a living, but what did your dad do after Loyola?

[Farfromgeneva]

There’s just something problematic, incongruous and unbelievable that anyone is communicating with a HF mgr they are invested in and the Dow Jones ever gets brought up at all unless it’s “real investors don’t pay any attention to the DOW”. Talk about unpersuasive.

[Peter Brown]

There’s just something problematic, incongruous and unbelievable that anyone is communicating with a HF mgr they are invested in and the Dow Jones ever gets brought up at all unless it’s “real investors don’t pay any attention to the DOW”. Talk about unpersuasive.

Yeah, managers never mention the Dow! Only the crazy ones do!

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/21/dow-1-m ... appen.html

I'll tell you what's unpersuasive; someone who claims to be in the market and thinks HF managers don't communicate with their investors (two way street btw, since investor groups tend to have some fairly reliable on-the-ground information such as, for instance, Jet A fuel prices...).

I get letters via email every month from several managers (and tend to read them since most of these guys are the smartest guys in the world).

[Farfromgeneva]

You just google stuff to reply don’t you. Now you know way more than everyone in my world in finance too? I bow down to you as omniscient supreme expert on all. M

I’ve seen the letter and have a personal relationship w Bill Ackman and many others. Those letters are like the ones people get from the president when they hit their 100th birthday.

Clue: professional financial folks watch Bloomberg, if any financial TV, CNBC is for retirees playing around in the stock market and neophyte children who want to play in the market.