old salt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:25 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:26 pm
old salt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:39 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:11 am
old salt wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:21 pm
Esper only received a 1 hr verbal briefing. He intends to review the written inquiry & record, then meet again with Navy officials before he decides. He'd be criticized for acting in haste if he did not. He'd also be derelict if he did not consult the President on this. The TR's not going anywhere yet & Crozier's still in quarantine.
Despite the dire predictions by Crozier & "experts" in this forum, only 1 TR sailor perished (RIP) after several days off the ship, & he wasn't even among the few who were hospitalized. Only a handful of the crew went into ICU.
Despite all the drama & hype, it still took a week to get the entire crew ashore who were going ashore & into hotels. Now some of them who tested negative are now testing positive & are asymptomatic. Zero positives in a crew of 5000 may be an unattainable & unrealistic standard.
The USN/USMC team, from DC to Guam, did a great job surging to care for the TR crew.
Crozier's signal flare was well intended but not necessary (imho).
Of course, we don't know what the timetable, and thus spread, would have been without the 'signal flare'.
The virus spreads exponentially, so hours, much less days, mattered.
Given the way the Big Stick's herd has faced down the virus (thanks to their overall fitness, health, youth & prompt medical attention) they might have been even closer to the inevitable herd immunity which will be necessary for them to deploy. Previous negative sailors, isolated in hotels, are now testing positive, though healthy & asymptomatic. Let's see what the CDC antibody testing of the 1000 TR sailors yields.
The Chief who didn't make it might have survived with prompt medical attention, which he did not receive due to his isolation ashore.
Again, you state as if fact what you really don't know. Including that the chief "did not receive" "prompt medical attention" "due to his isolation ashore". Maybe it was prompt, maybe it was not, maybe it wouldn't have mattered.
The reporting is that he was isolated in a house with 3 shipmates. Assume they each had a single room, like the sailors in the hotels. He was discovered unresponsive at 0830. That they were just checked by medial personnel twice daily. That's much more isolated than being aboard ship or even in the gym, on cots, which is where positives displaying any symptom were berthed.
We also have zero idea at this point whether there will even be immunity, much less herd immunity, with all those who show antibodies. It appears that there are varying types of antibodies being detected and varying levels...what will create actual immunity, if any?
Mich more than zero idea. We're in our 6th month of infections with hundreds of thousands of known cases. How many reinfections ?
Likewise, the 'best' explanation we've been getting so far about why some young people are succumbing to the virus, hard, whether death or just really rough with possible permanent damage, is 'viral load'. Lots and lots of virus exposure appears to be able to overcome young people, including with no other risk factor. Would the viral load have grown with more time packed together, more sailors becoming heavy spreaders of the virus?
We have hundreds of thousands of known healthy survivors, & likely multiples of that, still unknown.
It's all conjecture right now, with our best 'bets' being only based on our current, evolving knowledge. And that's still pretty darn scanty.
For conjecture, you're asserting things with great certainty.
I like my odds better if I were 30 - 50 years younger, back aboard ship again, scoring outstanding on the PRT.
I like my odds if I were 30-50 years younger too!
That's easy.
But no, we're not 6 months into known, tracked cases. Less than 4 full months, and only two months in the US.
And we definitely don't know whether people who were asymptomatic carriers for a period, didn't later have increased viral load and that's when they became symptomatic and were actually tested.
there's anecdotal evidence that reinfection can occur, but no controlled studies or tracking yet to determine how and who is susceptible to such, and whether they can be identified from those with more sustained immunity. And obviously no data on long immunity periods, season over season.
You're not dumb, Salty, you just play dumb at times.
on the single rooms...who knows whether someone sleeping would have been noticed as 'unresponsive' sooner...depends on how long he'd actually been 'unresponsive'...versus sleeping...
We simply don't know this stuff. No reason to pretend such certainty.
As to my own 'certainty' that's primarily my confidence as to what we DO NOT YET KNOW...in other words we're operating in highly 'uncertain' hostile territory. So, proceed with your head up.