The Nation's Financial Condition

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Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

a fan wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:58 am
Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:44 am Check out these teacher pension thefts in Nassau County LI.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/02/some-long ... over-300k/

Cops not far behind!

https://www.empirecenter.org/publicatio ... ping-100k/

These blue states earned every dollar of economic disaster headed their way.
:lol: So the idea here is that you and Mitchey think that ONLY Blue States will be hurt by this little game?

How many restaurants and tourist spots do you have in Florida, again?

Now how big of a tax shortfall do you think Florida and its many cities and counties will have because no one is vacationing in your State? And how long do you think this shortfall will last? Layoffs. Furloughs.

You and Mitchey don't understand what's happening.


Wrong. Any other state's implosion, and they are coming for in order IL, NJ, NY, CT, and MA, is a wash for states that actually live within their means like FL. A bankruptcy would lower the gargantuan property tax bills and sales taxes of some of these states, giving current taxpayers there that much more $$ to hold and spend in states with good weather. It'll hurt current pensioneers, but these pensions (in my links) are simply obscene not to mention probably illegal.

The coming state bankruptcies should be looked at like a street bum getting cleaned up and ready for a first job interview.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

This is a totally stupid idea. Go look at how the quality of life was/is post BK in places like Visalia, CA. Limited to no police, fire services, town is a dumpster. Not to mention there's zero precedent for it and I don't think the constitution really allows it anyways. KInd of the point of the federal gov't guaranteeing state debts dating back to the civil war.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

'Stick it to the Libs' is the sum and total of this thinking.

zero sum and can't think beyond their noses

but, hey wave those flags of the Confederacy...
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:26 pm Wrong. Any other state's implosion, and they are coming for in order IL, NJ, NY, CT, and MA, is a wash for states that actually live within their means like FL.
They're not living within their means. Your entire State is living on Federal borrowed money....Medicare.
Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:26 pm A bankruptcy would lower the gargantuan property tax bills and sales taxes of some of these states, giving current taxpayers there that much more $$ to hold and spend in states with good weather. It'll hurt current pensioneers, but these pensions (in my links) are simply obscene not to mention probably illegal.
You don't get it. You think these are the ONLY States that will have massive government service cuts? :lol:

The more you post your financial ideas, the more I worry your boss will read this, and fire you for not understand fundamental economic principles.

How many tourists will Florida get from overseas in 2020? Or 2021? You can kiss foreign revenue from DisneyWorld and all those parks goodbye until we get a global vaccine. And even when the vaccine arrives...the world will still be in a recession. Who is going to come to your State in a recession?

Now add in that every single State will start cutting government workers because you and McConnell can't add and subtract. Now add in that your restaurants and bars are either closed, or at 1/4 capacity....and all those lost tax dollars means that Florida will begin laying off people at the State, County, and city level. Which will lead to even LESS revenue. Snowball, moving down a big hill.

Now add in your idea to make these government layoffs a thing in all 50 States. So now they won't visit Florida in 2020, and 2021.

Get it yet?
Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:26 pm The coming state bankruptcies should be looked at like a street bum getting cleaned up and ready for a first job interview.
MDLax hit the nail on the head. You think "stick it to the libs" is the same thing as governing. And you don't want to hear that your home State is just as dependent...or MORE...on government as the next State over.

Tourism. Good luck getting those tourists back.
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

a fan wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:57 pm
Now add in your idea to make these government layoffs a thing in all 50 States. So now they won't visit Florida in 2020, and 2021.


When the tarpon, snook, grouper, and sailfish stop coming into our waters, then you get to kiss Florida goodbye. Until then, we're rolling as we always do! Stop confusing a well run red state with the impending blue state disasters run by D's. Our only problem is we are so attractive, blue state libs keep sneaking across the border into our state even after we tell them we don't want their policies. We are considering a permanent quarantine of all NY'ers even after this virus is defeated by Gilead.

Best state in the United States and its not even close. Our HS football is the best now in the country. Our manufacturing is up huge. Best gov. Best fiscally run state. Best beaches. Best tax system.

Get your head on straight, a fan. Give a little love to the best state in the US!
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

I would never wish anyone ill will. So all I'm going to say is: I wish you well in the upcoming rough waters .....that you apparently cannot see.
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RedFromMI
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by RedFromMI »

a fan wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:36 pm I would never wish anyone ill will. So all I'm going to say is: I wish you well in the upcoming rough waters .....that you apparently cannot see.
Especially all those who retired from one of those blue states and get their pensions cratered by either a state bankruptcy or the dead market (which is far from pricing in the long recovery time for the economy).
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Jim Malone
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Jim Malone »

seacoaster wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:33 am
And at least Rubin thinks it's a bad idea (see below). Jim M., what do you think (as a bankruptcy and workout specialist)?
There is good reason, while under Chapter 9, states cannot file bankruptcy but their counties, parishes, cities, villages or hamlets can.
State bankruptcies would impact the economy, credit and credibility of the USA.

States and municipal obligations were made or agreed to by local politicians who will be long gone when some of these obligations come due.

Municipalities within states can file ala Detroit which shaved $6B in obligations under Kevin Orr's examiner days and was going to made it out early before all heck broke loose.

Civil service pensions were devised to reward civic service which paid low wages (compared to private sector) after 40 years of service and age 65.
Once the public grade and step levels increased to those of private sector to prevent flight, the benefit packages should have been revised downward to offset additional compensation.

Up to those in charge to live within means or tax their way out of office when means are exceeded.

And there is no one in charge who would ever do this.

So, maybe a one time exception to state prohibition would set all straight once and for all and get states a fresh start.

Too many six figure pensions should be 50%-75% OF WHAT THEY ARE based upon the "intentions" of starting the pensions to begin with.
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njbill
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by njbill »

Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:26 pm
a fan wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:58 am
Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:44 am Check out these teacher pension thefts in Nassau County LI.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/02/some-long ... over-300k/

Cops not far behind!

https://www.empirecenter.org/publicatio ... ping-100k/

These blue states earned every dollar of economic disaster headed their way.
:lol: So the idea here is that you and Mitchey think that ONLY Blue States will be hurt by this little game?

How many restaurants and tourist spots do you have in Florida, again?

Now how big of a tax shortfall do you think Florida and its many cities and counties will have because no one is vacationing in your State? And how long do you think this shortfall will last? Layoffs. Furloughs.

You and Mitchey don't understand what's happening.


Wrong. Any other state's implosion, and they are coming for in order IL, NJ, NY, CT, and MA, is a wash for states that actually live within their means like FL. A bankruptcy would lower the gargantuan property tax bills and sales taxes of some of these states, giving current taxpayers there that much more $$ to hold and spend in states with good weather. It'll hurt current pensioneers, but these pensions (in my links) are simply obscene not to mention probably illegal.

The coming state bankruptcies should be looked at like a street bum getting cleaned up and ready for a first job interview.
And just what would bankruptcies of those states do for the country’s economy, oh financial guru?
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

njbill wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:14 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:26 pm
a fan wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:58 am
Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:44 am Check out these teacher pension thefts in Nassau County LI.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/02/some-long ... over-300k/

Cops not far behind!

https://www.empirecenter.org/publicatio ... ping-100k/

These blue states earned every dollar of economic disaster headed their way.
:lol: So the idea here is that you and Mitchey think that ONLY Blue States will be hurt by this little game?

How many restaurants and tourist spots do you have in Florida, again?

Now how big of a tax shortfall do you think Florida and its many cities and counties will have because no one is vacationing in your State? And how long do you think this shortfall will last? Layoffs. Furloughs.

You and Mitchey don't understand what's happening.


Wrong. Any other state's implosion, and they are coming for in order IL, NJ, NY, CT, and MA, is a wash for states that actually live within their means like FL. A bankruptcy would lower the gargantuan property tax bills and sales taxes of some of these states, giving current taxpayers there that much more $$ to hold and spend in states with good weather. It'll hurt current pensioneers, but these pensions (in my links) are simply obscene not to mention probably illegal.

The coming state bankruptcies should be looked at like a street bum getting cleaned up and ready for a first job interview.
And just what would bankruptcies of those states do for the country’s economy, oh financial guru?



The only thing a state bankruptcy would do is clean up the gargantuan mess you've made. Pensions north of $500k/year, heck even north of $100k a year, for public employees, are obscene. Take your medicine now when no one is looking and blame McConnell. Or suffer a slow and painful economic death.
njbill
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by njbill »

The “only thing”? You mean in addition to tanking the country’s economy, not to mention the world economy?
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CU77
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by CU77 »

Florida's a red state all right:

Image
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

He’s talking about the clay ground below the trailer parks for basically the entire interior of the state.
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seacoaster
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by seacoaster »

Jim Malone wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:09 pm
seacoaster wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:33 am
And at least Rubin thinks it's a bad idea (see below). Jim M., what do you think (as a bankruptcy and workout specialist)?
There is good reason, while under Chapter 9, states cannot file bankruptcy but their counties, parishes, cities, villages or hamlets can.
State bankruptcies would impact the economy, credit and credibility of the USA.

States and municipal obligations were made or agreed to by local politicians who will be long gone when some of these obligations come due.

Municipalities within states can file ala Detroit which shaved $6B in obligations under Kevin Orr's examiner days and was going to made it out early before all heck broke loose.

Civil service pensions were devised to reward civic service which paid low wages (compared to private sector) after 40 years of service and age 65.
Once the public grade and step levels increased to those of private sector to prevent flight, the benefit packages should have been revised downward to offset additional compensation.

Up to those in charge to live within means or tax their way out of office when means are exceeded.

And there is no one in charge who would ever do this.

So, maybe a one time exception to state prohibition would set all straight once and for all and get states a fresh start.

Too many six figure pensions should be 50%-75% OF WHAT THEY ARE based upon the "intentions" of starting the pensions to begin with.
Thanks. Would it need to be a "bankruptcy" in order to revise the benefit packages and contracts? Or could the states just engage in the sort restructurings and rehabilitations that insurance companies sometimes fall into?
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

CU77 wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:41 pm Florida's a red state all right:



I know you think that map is something for a Floridian to be ashamed about, but truly I am not. Nor should I be. Floridians live within their means. The only two counties here that are messed up are of course the only two reliably Democratic counties chock full of northerners.

The way I look at that map reminds me of what Donald J Trump pre-presidency once said to his lawyer as they drove around Manhattan in a limousine. Trump at the time had a negative net worth of like $2 billion. The limo stopped at a corner and there was a bum pandhandling outside. Trump turned to his lawyer and said (or supposedly said): "that bum is worth more than I am right now".

The same can be said of any of IL, CT, NY, NJ, and MA, and even CA if you factor in their own pension mess. Bankrupt anachronisms losing the best people they have because those people see what's coming and what is already there.

If you think handing out $500k yearly pensions to retired teachers is sustainable, you might want to ask the taxpayers of counties surrounding NYC. Or just ask Andrew Cuomo!:

https://www.investors.com/politics/edit ... igh-taxes/
Last edited by Peter Brown on Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
seacoaster
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by seacoaster »

More on McConnell's idea-storm. Don't know who this guy is, so the due diligence is up to you:

https://www.cbpp.org/blog/mcconnell-arg ... t-stand-up

"Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defends his opposition to more fiscal relief for state and local governments by arguing that it would just “bail out” states that have mismanaged their finances, particularly their state employee pension systems. That’s far off base. In reality, states would use the money to avoid massive layoffs and deep spending cuts due to the public health emergency and its economic effects. If they impose these cuts, the recession will be considerably deeper and longer. That’s why the next COVID-19 federal aid package needs to include fiscal relief to state and local governments for lost revenues, as President Trump himself acknowledged earlier this week.

We project that state budget shortfalls in fiscal year 2021 (which starts July 1 in most states) will far exceed those in the worst year of the Great Recession and will extend into 2022. In total, we project $500 billion in state shortfalls over fiscal years 2020-2022. This figure doesn’t include the shortfalls many local governments will face.

States must balance their budgets every year, even in recessions. Without substantial federal help, states very likely will deeply cut areas such as education and health care, lay off teachers and other workers, and cancel contracts with businesses. This would worsen the recession, delay recovery, and harm families and communities. The resulting cuts in health care could also shortchange coronavirus response efforts. The large budget shortfalls could lead states and localities to raise taxes and fees, too.

Sales and income taxes account for 70 percent of state tax revenue, but sales tax revenues have fallen through the floor because the places where people shop are closed. Income tax revenues also are collapsing due to mass layoffs and the stock market plunge. And state costs are up as states respond to the crisis and millions of newly jobless people turn to government assistance.

States couldn’t have predicted these extraordinary events. Moreover, they did a reasonable job of saving for a recession: states held much larger reserves when this crisis struck than when the last recession started. Heading into the current crisis, “rainy day” funds — reserves designated for responding to unanticipated revenue declines or spending needs — equaled about 7.6 percent of state budgets, versus about 5 percent in 2006, the high point before the Great Recession. And total state reserves (which include general-fund ending balances) now equal about 13 percent of state budgets, also well above 2006. Similarly, in 38 states the trust funds that support state unemployment insurance programs were better prepared before the current crisis than they were before the Great Recession, and most state trust funds met the U.S. Labor Department standard for recession preparation. The problem is that state revenues have fallen so severely that the resulting shortfalls are swamping states’ reserves.

Nor have states been overspending. As a share of the economy, spending from state general funds (which support current operations, like schools, health care, the justice system, and public health) is well below its levels heading into the last downturn. In some key areas, states have been too frugal. States still employ fewer teachers and other school workers than a decade ago, even though many more students are enrolled. Similarly, state funding for higher education per pupil is down 13 percent on average from roughly a decade ago, after adjusting for inflation, pushing up tuition and making college less accessible. And spending on infrastructure stands at historic lows as a share of the economy.

The idea that states would spend additional federal aid primarily on pensions also is mistaken. Emergency federal aid would go into state general funds, which are collapsing for the reasons noted above. States pay retirees’ pension benefits out of separate trust funds. While states (and localities) use general funds to make regular payments toward future pension obligations, these payments amount to only about 4.7 percent of state and local general fund spending, on average. And every state has adopted pension reforms over the last decade, leaving benefits for new employees in many states significantly weaker on average than in the past.

Senator McConnell suggested that, rather than helping states, the federal government should allow them to go bankrupt (which the federal bankruptcy code doesn’t now permit). That wouldn’t help either state budgets or the national economy and could actually make things worse. Bankruptcy is a tool for addressing high debt levels by canceling obligations to creditors. But state debt isn’t high by historical standards, and once state economies return to normal, they should be able to meet those obligations. As we wrote during the last recession, states have a strong track record in being faithful in paying their debts and have done so since the late 1800s; only one state (Arkansas in 1934) has ever defaulted on its general obligation debt.

Moreover, allowing states to declare bankruptcy — an idea panned across the political spectrum in the past – could significantly raise states’ cost of issuing bonds to pay for major transportation projects and other investments that boost the economy. That’s because investors, worrying more that they might not be repaid, would demand higher interest payments.

The bottom line is that strong fiscal relief for states is one of the most important and badly needed steps federal policymakers can take now. Senator McConnell’s misunderstandings and misrepresentations on this matter do nothing to alter that reality."
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

seacoaster wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:39 pm More on McConnell's idea-storm. Don't know who this guy is, so the due diligence is up to you:

https://www.cbpp.org/blog/mcconnell-arg ... t-stand-up


No sympathy. Go bankrupt and re-organize those pension obligations.

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youthathletics
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by youthathletics »

a fan wrote: Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:38 pm Apples and oranges.

The issue with Ruth's Chris is that they're a chain with over 6,000 employees and millions of dollars in the bank taking finite dollars (the program is out of money) out of a program that is specifically designed for small business....shops with fewer than 500 employees.

If you look at the PPP website, it specifically calls out, and I quote "All businesses – including nonprofits, veterans organizations,
Tribal business concerns, sole proprietorships, self-employed individuals, and independent contractors – with 500 or fewer employees can apply."

There are, of course, exemptions to this size rule....but come on...a national chain with 6,000 employees taking from a fund specifically designed for small businesses? And with so many of those businesses getting nothing?

Thats why everyone is angry. If Ruth's Chris got that money, and so did all the small businesses who applied for PPP?

No one would care.
Facing furor, Ruth's Chris high-end steak chain returns $20M small-business loan

Cheryl Henry, CEO of Ruth's Hospitality Group said in a statement that the company was eligible for the funds it had applied for in order to protect employees and their families.

"We intended to repay this loan in adherence with government guidelines, but as we learned more about the funding limitations of the program and the unintended impact, we have decided to accelerate that repayment," said Henry. "It is our hope that these funds are loaned to another company to protect their employees."

A Change.org petition circulated this week demanding the chain return the funds drew over 250,000 digital signatures.
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a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:43 pm No sympathy. Go bankrupt and re-organize those pension obligations.
Gee, I wonder if this attitude is going to bite you in the behind?

Best of luck you and your fellow citizens in Florida in the coming months and years.
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Jim Malone
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Jim Malone »

It would have to be something along those lines as any bankruptcy petition filed is going to be dismissed sooner than later unless Congress amends the Bankruptcy Code accordingly which is not going to happen.

Heck, a certain leader has no idea what he proposed is not even within the law.
seacoaster wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:33 pm Thanks. Would it need to be a "bankruptcy" in order to revise the benefit packages and contracts? Or could the states just engage in the sort restructurings and rehabilitations that insurance companies sometimes fall into?
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