All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[ggait]

But it's not over yet. Now we have right wingers clamoring for the immediate re-opening of the economy even though the virus has not been contained

Brookie -- you are just so wrong about this. Your partisan glasses continue to obscure obvious reality. You are as bad as Petey Brown. Wake up dude.

As we learned with the wall (including Mexico paying for it) Trump bull shirting and tweeting about something does not make it happen.

We are not going to stupidly re-open way too early. Heck, even Trump is fragging Gov. Brian Kemp (who was dumb enough to follow Trump's "Liberate" lead). And even if a dummy like Kemp issues a dumb order, citizens are not going endanger themselves and follow it. Stupid orders that folks won't follow won't provide businesses the willing workers and willing customers they need to operate.

Only 12% of Americans say the SD measures where they live go too far. Only 22% of Republicans think current measures go to far. There's just not nearly enough governors as dumb as Kemp to go down that rathole.

26% of Americans believe the limits don’t go far enough. 61% feel the steps taken by government officials to prevent infections of COVID-19 in their area are about right. Hardly anyone agrees with Trump, Hannity and the protestors toting AR-15s. In a nice change, people are not taking Trump literally or seriously on Covid.

https://apnews.com/9ed271ca13012d3b77a2b631c1979ce1

Like I said, I'll give you odds on unlimited money to bet that the USA winds up with more per capita deaths than UK, Italy or Spain (all of whom have socialized medicine). Just tell me how much money you are willing to lose. Maybe I will buy a boat with my winnings.

[old salt]

From the Times. Sorry for the length of this, but wanted to get folks the whole thing:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/worl ... e=Homepage

"BERLIN — As images of America’s overwhelmed hospital wards and snaking jobless lines have flickered across the world, people on the European side of the Atlantic are looking at the richest and most powerful nation in the world with disbelief.

“When people see these pictures of New York City they say, ‘How can this happen? How is this possible?’” said Henrik Enderlein, president of the Berlin-based Hertie School, a university focused on public policy. “We are all stunned. Look at the jobless lines. Twenty-two million,” he added.

“I feel a desperate sadness,” said Timothy Garton Ash, a professor of European history at Oxford University and a lifelong and ardent Atlanticist.

“It raises the question: Has America become the wrong kind of power with the wrong kind of priorities?” he asked.

Ever since Mr. Trump moved into the White House and turned America First into his administration’s guiding mantra, Europeans have had to get used to the president’s casual willingness to risk decades-old alliances and rip up international agreements.

Of course, some countries in Europe have also been overwhelmed by the virus, with the number of dead from Covid-19 much higher as a percentage of the population in Italy, Spain and France than in the United States. But they were struck sooner and had less time to prepare and react.

Some cautioned that the final history of how countries fare after the pandemic is still a long way from being written.

A pandemic is a very specific kind of stress test for political systems, said Mr. Garton Ash, the history professor. The military balance of power has not shifted at all. The United States remains the world’s largest economy. And it was entirely unclear what global region would be best equipped to kick-start growth after a deep recession.

“All of our economies are going to face a terrible test,” he said. “No one knows who will come out stronger at the end.”

“It is possible that the United States will resort to unexpected resources, and at the same time find a form of national unity in its foreign policy regarding the strategic rivalry with China, which it has been lacking until now,” Mr. Haddad wrote.

“Sometime in 2021 we come out of this crisis and we will be in 2030,” said Mr. Moïsi. “There will be more Asia in the world and less West.”

Mr. Garton Ash said that the United States should take an urgent warning from a long line of empires that rose and fell.

“To a historian it’s nothing new, that’s what happens,” said Mr. Garton Ash. “It’s a very familiar story in world history that after a certain amount of time a power declines.”

“You accumulate problems, and because you’re such a strong player, you can carry these dysfunctionalities for a long time,” he said. “Until something happens and you can’t anymore.”

Back in 2016, I recall questioning whether we may be witnessing the fall of the American empire. I mentioned that this is a young country and what we may ultimately become perhaps had yet to be determined....it drew howls from the usual suspects. Nothing like a good old fashioned world wide virus to test it.

.. ....Yes, hardly the first time that you & Timothy Garton Ash have heralded the decline & fall of Western Civilization.

[kramerica.inc]

Like I said, I'll give you odds on unlimited money to bet that the USA winds up with more per capita deaths than UK, Italy or Spain (all of whom have socialized medicine). Just tell me how much money you are willing to lose. Maybe I will buy a boat with my winnings.

You'll probably win that bet. NY upped its Wuhan Flu death count by 3700 just a week ago. On a whim. Nothing proven. Just assumed. Because, why not?

[Typical Lax Dad]

From the Times. Sorry for the length of this, but wanted to get folks the whole thing:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/worl ... e=Homepage

"BERLIN — As images of America’s overwhelmed hospital wards and snaking jobless lines have flickered across the world, people on the European side of the Atlantic are looking at the richest and most powerful nation in the world with disbelief.

“When people see these pictures of New York City they say, ‘How can this happen? How is this possible?’” said Henrik Enderlein, president of the Berlin-based Hertie School, a university focused on public policy. “We are all stunned. Look at the jobless lines. Twenty-two million,” he added.

“I feel a desperate sadness,” said Timothy Garton Ash, a professor of European history at Oxford University and a lifelong and ardent Atlanticist.

“It raises the question: Has America become the wrong kind of power with the wrong kind of priorities?” he asked.

Ever since Mr. Trump moved into the White House and turned America First into his administration’s guiding mantra, Europeans have had to get used to the president’s casual willingness to risk decades-old alliances and rip up international agreements.

Of course, some countries in Europe have also been overwhelmed by the virus, with the number of dead from Covid-19 much higher as a percentage of the population in Italy, Spain and France than in the United States. But they were struck sooner and had less time to prepare and react.

Some cautioned that the final history of how countries fare after the pandemic is still a long way from being written.

A pandemic is a very specific kind of stress test for political systems, said Mr. Garton Ash, the history professor. The military balance of power has not shifted at all. The United States remains the world’s largest economy. And it was entirely unclear what global region would be best equipped to kick-start growth after a deep recession.

“All of our economies are going to face a terrible test,” he said. “No one knows who will come out stronger at the end.”

“It is possible that the United States will resort to unexpected resources, and at the same time find a form of national unity in its foreign policy regarding the strategic rivalry with China, which it has been lacking until now,” Mr. Haddad wrote.

“Sometime in 2021 we come out of this crisis and we will be in 2030,” said Mr. Moïsi. “There will be more Asia in the world and less West.”

Mr. Garton Ash said that the United States should take an urgent warning from a long line of empires that rose and fell.

“To a historian it’s nothing new, that’s what happens,” said Mr. Garton Ash. “It’s a very familiar story in world history that after a certain amount of time a power declines.”

“You accumulate problems, and because you’re such a strong player, you can carry these dysfunctionalities for a long time,” he said. “Until something happens and you can’t anymore.”

Back in 2016, I recall questioning whether we may be witnessing the fall of the American empire. I mentioned that this is a young country and what we may ultimately become perhaps had yet to be determined....it drew howls from the usual suspects. Nothing like a good old fashioned world wide virus to test it.

.. ....Yes, hardly the first time that you & Timothy Garton Ash have heralded the decline & fall of Western Civilization.

It was a question, not a declarative statement like someone else I know.

[Peter Brown]

You don't get it. The fun part about messing with the FLP cumquats on this forum is knowing they have a warm, wet stain running down their pant legs when they read anybody that disagrees with them. In the FLP fantasy world no one should ever disagree with them because they are the smartest people in the planet . Just axe em, they will tell you.

I agree with your posts so much. These guys go ballistic when anyone dares venture off the thought reservation, but yet you can tell they love it too.

[MDlaxfan76]

I think you're correct, ggait...and that's just with the developed world, we'll be middle of the pack.

And the developing/poor will be crushed by this...we won't know the counts. (we don't really know them now, but the variance from reality will be greater).

At least for wave 1, we'll be middle of the pack.

The question is whether we'll do as well or worse than other developed countries in waves, 2,3,4 etc.

It's possible that quite a few others will be far more scared going into the fall than we will be, much to our later chagrin.

That said, I think you are correct that how we handle future waves will be less driven by gov't and more by the population's response. Very hard for even the die hard Trumpists to believe much of anything out of POTUS any more on this topic, and that's likely to grow even worse as he continues to get it so wrong.

But, humans have quite the capacity for putting on rose colored glasses, so if we have a trough this summer, whether because social distancing choked it well or because of sunlight, there could well be a collective sigh of relief and stupid choices made going into the fall, egged on by the Trumpist desire for all to seem fine going into November. That could be disastrous.

I tend to think, though, that whatever the knuckleheads do, there will be enough careful behavior by most others to at least dampen wave 2. And any new wave will flip people out.

But if you look at what China continues to do, the rigor of their controls and behaviors, as they open up, I don't see us going to those lengths over this summer...I suspect we'll be far more lackadaisical pre wave 2....after that, we may well get far more careful.

[Peter Brown]

Your partisan glasses continue to obscure obvious reality. You are as bad as Petey Brown. Wake up dude.

I'm not gonna lie; this kind of hurts. I'm as bad as Brook?!?!? That lands hard, man.

how dare you!.jpg (141.3 KiB) Viewed 1652 times

[MDlaxfan76]

Like I said, I'll give you odds on unlimited money to bet that the USA winds up with more per capita deaths than UK, Italy or Spain (all of whom have socialized medicine). Just tell me how much money you are willing to lose. Maybe I will buy a boat with my winnings.

You'll probably win that bet. NY upped its Wuhan Flu death count by 3700 just a week ago. On a whim. Nothing proven. Just assumed. Because, why not?

Kram, that wasn't ggait.

On your point, really?
You think our count today nationally includes those who died at home with CV-19?
It's not as if statistical analyses aren't valid, right?
Not precise, but true?

You just need to make sure you're doing apples to apples...that NYT article makes clear that it is likely that a bunch of countries have an undercount, not just us. And that a full analysis will need to take time. But it's pretty clear there's an undercount.

[MDlaxfan76]

Your partisan glasses continue to obscure obvious reality. You are as bad as Petey Brown. Wake up dude.

I'm not gonna lie; this kind of hurts. I'm as bad as Brook?!?!? That lands hard, man.


how dare you!.jpg

yet, so true.

[cradleandshoot]

cuomo talking about antibody survey results.
monster numbers around new york.
bout time we started getting numbers.

what next?

are exposed immune?

start hearing about major efforts surrounding 55, 60, 65? + being isolated, espec the older groups and those with conditions.

opening up should have as 1st priority age and health. that has been indicated for a long time as being #1 & #2 determining factors.

If you ask King Andy about the NYS unemployment mess... NEXT QUESTION. When I hear a bunch of politicians telling us they are working on the problem with all their energy... I know those of us NY folks waiting on their pending claims are F***ed. Like all my fellow workers that were laid off... still waiting for that call. If you try and get in touch with them for an update... F**k you peasant. We will call you... got it. There is one thing for certain about this virus... user friendly has gone out the window when it comes to getting honest answers from anyone in government. We now have a fresh perspective on what it means to be a peasant.

[cradleandshoot]

Your partisan glasses continue to obscure obvious reality. You are as bad as Petey Brown. Wake up dude.

I'm not gonna lie; this kind of hurts. I'm as bad as Brook?!?!? That lands hard, man.


how dare you!.jpg

yet, so true.

I am open to all forms of criticism. There
Is one exception... any comparisons to the buffet blimp crosses all lines of decency.

[Brooklyn]

You don't get it. The fun part about messing with the FLP cumquats on this forum is knowing they have a warm, wet stain running down their pant legs when they read anybody that disagrees with them. In the FLP fantasy world no one should ever disagree with them because they are the smartest people in the planet . Just axe em, they will tell you.

Actually, I find that a lot more of that on this forum from the CONservatives who live in the fantasy world of right wing delusionalism. Unlike LP where they could rely on a certain admin and team of like ill-minded mods to back up their hate filled rhetoric but who prohibted any reply, here you post at your own risk.

[RedFromMI]

Like I said, I'll give you odds on unlimited money to bet that the USA winds up with more per capita deaths than UK, Italy or Spain (all of whom have socialized medicine). Just tell me how much money you are willing to lose. Maybe I will buy a boat with my winnings.

You'll probably win that bet. NY upped its Wuhan Flu death count by 3700 just a week ago. On a whim. Nothing proven. Just assumed. Because, why not?

Kram, that wasn't ggait.

On your point, really?
You think our count today nationally includes those who died at home with CV-19?
It's not as if statistical analyses aren't valid, right?
Not precise, but true?

You just need to make sure you're doing apples to apples...that NYT article makes clear that it is likely that a bunch of countries have an undercount, not just us. And that a full analysis will need to take time. But it's pretty clear there's an undercount.

Final toll will be 50% higher to roughly double when all is said and done, when including the missed cases. And the only places that may not apply is countries like China, Iran, Russia, NK which are hiding tolls for political reasons, and third world countries where the unofficial toll could actually be much higher.

If you saw my post from yesterday from the NY Times about excess deaths in Europe you would understand why. And in the US - reporting by states is sometime extremely slow for "other" deaths, many which will be some of those excess deaths attributable to COVID-19. So getting the US numbers might take some time after the fact.

[old salt]

In the long run, the success of nations in dealing with V-19 (until a vaccine is universally available), won't be in how well we SD, test, trace, mitigate & contain. Rather success will be based on how well we protect the vulnerable at risk segments.

In less developed countries, underlying diseases or poor health conditions reduce the % & health of the population surviving to be at risk. Our advances in increasing life expectancy have generated a larger at risk population than we've have had if "nature had been allowed to take it's course" & naturally "thin the herd" of the old, weak & infirm.

[Brooklyn]

Brookie -- you are just so wrong about this. Your partisan glasses continue to obscure obvious reality. You are as bad as Petey Brown. Wake up dude.

As we learned with the wall (including Mexico paying for it) Trump bull shirting and tweeting about something does not make it happen.

We are not going to stupidly re-open way too early. Heck, even Trump is fragging Gov. Brian Kemp (who was dumb enough to follow Trump's "Liberate" lead). And even if a dummy like Kemp issues a dumb order, citizens are not going endanger themselves and follow it. Stupid orders that folks won't follow won't provide businesses the willing workers and willing customers they need to operate.

Only 12% of Americans say the SD measures where they live go too far. Only 22% of Republicans think current measures go to far. There's just not nearly enough governors as dumb as Kemp to go down that rathole.

26% of Americans believe the limits don’t go far enough. 61% feel the steps taken by government officials to prevent infections of COVID-19 in their area are about right. Hardly anyone agrees with Trump, Hannity and the protestors toting AR-15s. In a nice change, people are not taking Trump literally or seriously on Covid.

https://apnews.com/9ed271ca13012d3b77a2b631c1979ce1

Like I said, I'll give you odds on unlimited money to bet that the USA winds up with more per capita deaths than UK, Italy or Spain (all of whom have socialized medicine). Just tell me how much money you are willing to lose. Maybe I will buy a boat with my winnings.

As bad as Brownie? That's an insult. En garde thou spiteful infidel:




Re that border wall, yeah at first it was that idiot-in-chief who said the wall would have protected against the inflow of the virus. But the jackass failed to note that it wasn't illegals who brought in the illness. Instead it was people who used visas that his State dept issued who brought it in from Europe. Yeah, it is always fashionable and politically correct to blame Latinos for every problem in this society. But for those of us who live in the world of reality, we much prefer to go with FACTS, not with myths. Especially those myths based on one's political leanings or biases.

Re the surveys, I have already addressed that matter. No point in further going through it again.


We will see what the consequences will be when the mitigation orders are relaxed. Hopefully, the virus proliferation will be mitigated soon. Real soon.

[Brooklyn]

I am open to all forms of criticism. There
Is one exception... any comparisons to the buffet blimp crosses all lines of decency.

You should be flattered!

[Cooter]

WBAL has a nice site up for Coronavirus numbers in Maryland:
https://www.wbaltv.com/article/maryland ... s/31474817#

The coronavirus by age chart is interesting. It looks like no one under the age of 30 has died yet in Maryland. One thing to remember is that the true number of cases could well by 2 or 3 (or even more) times than that tested. Another thing to remember for older age groups like 60-69, the number of deaths will include a lot of deaths of people who had significant health problems. So if you are in good health and 60-69, your chance of dying might still be low.

[Peter Brown]

I don't know who this guy (Steve Hanke) is other than he is a Johns Hopkins econ professor. Read his tweet just now:

https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/ ... 57092?s=20

He is in essence saying a formal study in NYS (confirmed by Cuomo) shows that way more people have this virus than expected, but because we are all not dropping dead, the virus has a natural limitation on populations excepting those who are specifically compromised. He is also saying, go back to work.

Curious what the Dems here are thinking in reply to that.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/dow-fut ... laims.html

[wgdsr]

WBAL has a nice site up for Coronavirus numbers in Maryland:
https://www.wbaltv.com/article/maryland ... s/31474817#

The coronavirus by age chart is interesting. It looks like no one under the age of 30 has died yet in Maryland. One thing to remember is that the true number of cases could well by 2 or 3 (or even more) times than that tested. Another thing to remember for older age groups like 60-69, the number of deaths will include a lot of deaths of people who had significant health problems. So if you are in good health and 60-69, your chance of dying might still be low.

2 or 3 x higher? how about 10x? 20x? or maybe much higher than that.