OS - How about Crozier go to NAS Fallon in beautiful Fallon, NV. Top Gun is there. The town has great people, small and quaint. 60 miles to Reno. The ranchers love when the jets go screaming by just make sure the cows are not buzzed as they do not like that. Plenty of dirt and sagebrush to fire at will just do not hit the salt mine next to the big sand mountain. Football team is good just like the old days where a few players are in the HS and NV Hall of Fame . The only viral infections he may have to deal with assuming they are still there are the two houses over the runway that have plenty of women and Mustang Ranch is about 50 miles away. Be a great ending to his career.
Far - I said this before out here - go into a WalMart - man, everyone seems to have a T or hat on. I just chuckle.
Trinity - yep this was an interesting few pages. I learned that at those frat party schools, Dartmouth and Hopkins, they are taught military tactics, military strategy, leadership, management skills, critical thought and decision-making under extreme pressure, and where most of their instructors were combat veterans, all 24x7@365. Unfortunately, I missed that part about arrogant, pompous and that 1 person was way more important than all the men and women who serve. I buried three good friends, one my son is named after, hopefully they feel the same about them.
I am not sure where this might go, but I've decided on this thread. This is an excerpt from a weekly newsletter published by Ian Bremmer, and I thought it would interest some of you:
"“there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” - vladimir lenin
an exaggeration, like most of lenin's exhortations. but we're living through a year where a decade happens. that's a useful way to think about how the world emerges from the coronavirus crisis, because it's less about suddenly changing course (something that would come from a new permanent feature in society, like the discovery of a new energy source or a soviet-style revolution in china), than a massive—but temporary—disruption that impacts every country and every person on the planet. some of this is perception as we're all suddenly focused on what works well and what doesn't; the tolerance of "good enough" vanishes in an existential crisis. and some is the result of the “all hands on deck” response function: weakening institutions are maximally exposed for their inadequacies. while growing structural trends become more immediately dominant.
a few of the areas where we are witnessing a decade happening in a year. geopolitically, i see three:
1. the china model. china's rise in economic and technological power isn't new. nor its political assertiveness to support growing commercial interests and influence. but the level of economic interdependence with the united states has been suitably strong to limit china promoting an alternative model. and domestic political stability has been suitably high to avoid the need for scapegoating. now we're seeing nationalism to insulate president xi jinping and his confederates from blame—both domestically (for early mishandling of the crisis) and internationally (against growing calls from the us for china to pay for their responsibility in the eventual spread of the pandemic). that means more confidence at home that the chinese model is the correct one (and moves to more quickly integrate hong kong accordingly—we should be more worried about a taiwan fight in this environment). and more assertiveness internationally—with the chinese government seeking to leverage their resilience from the virus (and especially to the coming second wave of cases this fall/winter) as a model for governance for other countries. none of this equates to china supplanting the united states; in particular, countries are going to be seriously disappointed if they expect large chinese cash infusions for a developing world that desperately needs it. rather it’s china leaning into a world with more alignment towards beijing, moving away from the "closed vs open" narrative (which has bedeviled the chinese the way it had the soviets), and promoting efficiency, preparedness, and strategic planning as a model to be bet on, if not emulated, supported by a critical position in the medical supply chain, and some humanitarian support/increased economic lending at a time when there's otherwise a geopolitical vacuum.
2. europe's existential crisis. internal inequality and resentment at the northern europeans who safeguard the rules but also benefit the most from them isn't new. but the scale and duration of economic downturn coming from coronavirus—far greater than the eurozone crisis in 2009/10—means that domestic economic policy responses will not be sufficient. despite flexibility on eu fiscal and state aid rules and the european central bank allowing states to expand their deficits, a far stronger fiscal response will be needed... which means burden sharing. germany views the pandemic first and foremost as a national problem; chancellor angela merkel will do "whatever it takes" to backstop the german economy. but that's very different from bailing out the southern europeans by supporting "coronabonds" on the scale that would support a recovery. italy is the core issue because of the hit from coronavirus and the economy’s size—last month, italian leaders put out a full page ad in the frankfurter allgemeine to remind germany that european nations agreed to cut germany's debt in 1953 to help with economic recovery after world war two, and asking berlin to demonstrate similar solidarity with those european countries struggling most with coronavirus. at least now the crisis is still perceived as symmetric by europe, despite the symbolism of lockdowns leading to border closures... but the recovery won't be. and so the likelihood of another greek crisis, but this time bigger, deeper, and with less european leadership to respond has become more urgent. whether the european union survives coronavirus in its current form is a live question.
3. american unilateralism. american ambivalence about providing global leadership isn't new. but the coronavirus crisis is exposing deep fissures in lack of domestic investment—healthcare, education, and infrastructure—that will become dominant forces for us politics, while defense spending will come under significant pressure and international aid will be even more of an afterthought. this isn't a united states that's withdrawing from the international order; indeed, the dominant position of technology companies in the post-coronavirus global economy (and america's strength in the field) only increases the asymmetry of american power vis-a-vis allies. so too the us position in energy production, as shown in the weakness of russia and saudi arabia in their failed efforts to increase their geopolitical relevance through an oil war. add in america's geographic buffer from the arms races, forced migration, and terrorism in europe, the middle east, africa and asia. all of which strengthens the dollar as the global reserve currency coming after the crisis, as well as the impulse for american unilateralism in directing its strength to reorder alliances and multilateral architecture in its favor... or to abandon them. the priorities and, of course, style of american diplomacy would be very different under a biden presidency (and the likelihood of near-term cold war with the chinese would diminish), but the unilateralist american impulse is set to expand.
those are the ways coronavirus drives a changing geopolitical environment faster. all of which isn't yet bringing us towards a new global order, but rather expanding the g-zero. the only one of the three that implies greater leadership, the chinese model, is most relevant for developing nations, while china itself has little capacity (economic and military) or inclination (political and economic capital to spend) to reshape a global order; the other two support further fragmentation.
then you have the speeding up of related trends happening within/across countries. growing inequality—with sudden and dramatic displacement from economic shutdowns, inability for non-knowledge economy workers to work from home, corporate restarts requiring greater efficiencies from labor, and technology displacing more labor-intensive non-digital economy sectors—leading to more political polarization and anti-establishment sentiment across the world's democracies. increased influence of the tech sector—with necessity of effective contact tracing as part of the restart of the global economy, making tech companies a critical part of the national security/industrial complex—further altering the balance in perception of liberty versus security, and requiring non-digital corporate models (whether in retail, services, or media) to adapt or fail.
and the big issue out there; the delegitimization of institutions defining how society is ordered. representative democracy and free market capitalism will face far greater strains in the aftermath of this crisis. do people believe their leaders represent them if their government is unable to provide conditions for a large percentage of the population to achieve basic well-being? if the trajectory for their children isn't plausibly better? similarly, will maximization of growth and profit as a private-sector goal remain tolerated if a large percentage of the population sees themselves as completely cut out of the equation?
these challenges aren't lost on political and private sector leaders, to be sure. and so you see the idea of universal basic income becoming much more fashionable—the spanish government recently announced they intend to implement it (though there's no plan yet and, per the above discussion on europe, no reaction from northern europeans on how it would be paid for), just as the us business roundtable last year announced companies would focus on all stakeholders rather than putting shareholders first. but the reality of reduced growth—from lower quality/volatility of china as the world's largest economy, from expense of resilience in the move to just-in-case supply chains, from the cost of climate change (and battling it), from the lack of political coordination and related economic efficiency that comes from a g-zero world and domestic political polarization—all means there's less ability to respond in a time of growing citizen demands."
Good googly mugly coaster. Are you posting a response on a thread or trying to write a PhD dissertation? The first rule in getting your point across is to keep it simple. yer a good man but you will never be Henry David Thoreau.
I use to be a people person until people ruined that for me.
by cradleandshoot » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:57 am Mr moderator, deactivate my account. You have heck this forum up to making it nothing more than a joke. I hope you are happy. This is cradle and shoot signing out.
seacoaster wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:22 am
I am not sure where this might go, but I've decided on this thread. This is an excerpt from a weekly newsletter published by Ian Bremmer, and I thought it would interest some of you:
"“there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” - vladimir lenin
Good stuff from Bremmer. Thanks for posting.
I've been thinking a lot about what the world will look like emerging from the V-19 crisis.
A lot will depend on how the US & EU adapt. If there's an effective V-19 vaccine within a year, I think we'll return to something close to the previous normal, with lessons learned influencing going forward.
If we don't come up with an effective V-19 vaccine, & a way to deal with similar emerging mutated viruses, it will shape a new normal going forward.
It's encouraging how Bremmer highlights US tech superiority & how it might be leveraged in adapting to any new normals or new world orders.
Change is coming -- it could be constructive, or it could be destructive, ...highly destructive if zealots like AOC & her squad sieze the initiative. I hope that Biden is not too senile to hold off the AOC squad, or that he doesn't sell us out to his Chinese friends.
We've never more needed a farsighted leader as a transformative President.
Unfortunately, we've never had 2 more unqualified candidates for the challenges we'll face in the next 5 years.
Last edited by old salt on Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Fyi. The Senate Intelligence Committee affirms the intelligence community's conclusion that Russia acted to aid Trump in 2016 — and explicitly breaks with the House GOP.
"The ICA reflects strong tradecraft," said Burr.
“I don’t take responsibility at all.” —Donald J Trump
Nearly entire crew of coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier tested, 9 treated for symptoms
The U.S. Navy said Tuesday that nearly all crewmembers assigned to USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have been tested for the coronavirus.
“As of today, 94% of USS Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers were tested for Covid-19, with 710 total positive and 3,872 negative results,” the service wrote in a release.
Of the total cases, nine are currently being treated at the U.S. Naval Hospital Guam, 42 sailors have recovered and one sailor died. A significant number of the Roosevelt crew tested positive but displayed no symptoms.
The crew of any USN warship is a young, healthy herd. ...which I expect the CDC study to confirm {imho}
LandM wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:56 pm
OS - How about Crozier go to NAS Fallon in beautiful Fallon, NV. Top Gun is there. The town has great people, small and quaint. 60 miles to Reno. The ranchers love when the jets go screaming by just make sure the cows are not buzzed as they do not like that. Plenty of dirt and sagebrush to fire at will just do not hit the salt mine next to the big sand mountain. Football team is good just like the old days where a few players are in the HS and NV Hall of Fame . The only viral infections he may have to deal with assuming they are still there are the two houses over the runway that have plenty of women and Mustang Ranch is about 50 miles away. Be a great ending to his career.
Far - I said this before out here - go into a WalMart - man, everyone seems to have a T or hat on. I just chuckle.
Trinity - yep this was an interesting few pages. I learned that at those frat party schools, Dartmouth and Hopkins, they are taught military tactics, military strategy, leadership, management skills, critical thought and decision-making under extreme pressure, and where most of their instructors were combat veterans, all 24x7@365. Unfortunately, I missed that part about arrogant, pompous and that 1 person was way more important than all the men and women who serve. I buried three good friends, one my son is named after, hopefully they feel the same about them.
LandM, you will be pleased to learn that Dartmouth was one of those 'frat party schools' that never abandoned its ROTC program. Dunno about Hopkins. But they may actually be pleased to be considered a fun 'party' school...not exactly their primary reputation.
It's amazing how "arrogant, pompous" etc some ex-military academy folks are about their supposedly totally unique set of decision-making skills, as if everyone else is a useless twit.
It's also interesting how amazingly defensive some can be about this.
That said, in my experience with most military folks, they are among our nation's finest and bravest. They have all sorts of disciplines and perspectives one would wish for one's child to emulate, for an employer to employ, for a friend to value. This is of course not universal, because, after all, the military is made up of human beings with all their flaws...including, unfortunately, some thinking their poop smells better than everyone else.
Nearly entire crew of coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier tested, 9 treated for symptoms
The U.S. Navy said Tuesday that nearly all crewmembers assigned to USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have been tested for the coronavirus.
“As of today, 94% of USS Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers were tested for Covid-19, with 710 total positive and 3,872 negative results,” the service wrote in a release.
Of the total cases, nine are currently being treated at the U.S. Naval Hospital Guam, 42 sailors have recovered and one sailor died. A significant number of the Roosevelt crew tested positive but displayed no symptoms.
The crew of any USN warship is a young, healthy herd. ...which I expect the CDC study to confirm {imho}
Nearly entire crew of coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier tested, 9 treated for symptoms
The U.S. Navy said Tuesday that nearly all crewmembers assigned to USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have been tested for the coronavirus.
“As of today, 94% of USS Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers were tested for Covid-19, with 710 total positive and 3,872 negative results,” the service wrote in a release.
Of the total cases, nine are currently being treated at the U.S. Naval Hospital Guam, 42 sailors have recovered and one sailor died. A significant number of the Roosevelt crew tested positive but displayed no symptoms.
The crew of any USN warship is a young, healthy herd. ...which I expect the CDC study to confirm {imho}
Is it to be understood that 52 of 710 required hospital care?
old salt wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:25 pm
One's Putin's choice. One's Xi's choice. Pick your poison. Who's the bigger emerging threat ?
Are you saying that Biden would be favored by Xi?
Really??
Or is that a bit of 'troll' perhaps?
If the latter, Is that perhaps why Trump said all those sweet things about Xi in January/February when Biden was saying we needed to be much tougher with them on this issue?
Seriously,
I'd agree that China is the bigger longer term strategic threat, certainly as you say 'emerging'. The question that I think is most important is not IF they're going to be a massive strategic competitor, but rather whether we can successfully 'bend' their trajectory to be constructive rather than destructive in the world, in cooperation with us.
Do we need to look at China through a zero-sum lens or is there a better way? Can we get them to do the same?
At the same time be very clear-eyed about the immediate as well as 'emerging' realities of their tactics.
The issue is very real, particularly in cyber.
Nearly entire crew of coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier tested, 9 treated for symptoms
The U.S. Navy said Tuesday that nearly all crewmembers assigned to USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have been tested for the coronavirus.
“As of today, 94% of USS Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers were tested for Covid-19, with 710 total positive and 3,872 negative results,” the service wrote in a release.
Of the total cases, nine are currently being treated at the U.S. Naval Hospital Guam, 42 sailors have recovered and one sailor died. A significant number of the Roosevelt crew tested positive but displayed no symptoms.
The crew of any USN warship is a young, healthy herd. ...which I expect the CDC study to confirm {imho}
Is it to be understood that 52 of 710 required hospital care?
I've never seen sub totals of # of hospitalizations which total up to 52. All positives were housed ashore aboard the naval base, in quarantine, under medical supervision. Those 42 "recovered" may have included those who received outpatient treatment, although they may have admitted everyone to hospital who displayed any symptoms, as a precaution, since I never saw any reporting of hospital capacity being approached. I just saw reporting of 1 ICU admission, beyond the sailor who was discovered unresponsive & admitted to ICU too late to recover.
Nearly entire crew of coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier tested, 9 treated for symptoms
The U.S. Navy said Tuesday that nearly all crewmembers assigned to USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have been tested for the coronavirus.
“As of today, 94% of USS Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers were tested for Covid-19, with 710 total positive and 3,872 negative results,” the service wrote in a release.
Of the total cases, nine are currently being treated at the U.S. Naval Hospital Guam, 42 sailors have recovered and one sailor died. A significant number of the Roosevelt crew tested positive but displayed no symptoms.
The crew of any USN warship is a young, healthy herd. ...which I expect the CDC study to confirm {imho}
Is it to be understood that 52 of 710 required hospital care?
I've never seen sub totals of # of hospitalizations which total up to 52. All positives were housed ashore aboard the naval base, in quarantine, under medical supervision. Those 42 "recovered" may have included those who received outpatient treatment, although they may have admitted everyone to hospital who displayed any symptoms, as a precaution, since I never saw any reporting of hospital capacity being approached. I just saw reporting of 1 ICU admission, beyond the sailor who was discovered unresponsive & admitted to ICU too late to recover.
Ok. It’s not clear how severe the 42 cases were. Somewhere between 10-42.
The Navy is delaying plans to begin moving sailors back onboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt after crew members continued to test positive for the coronavirus after isolation, according to Navy officials.
Navy leadership is temporarily halting post-quarantine testing and is extending sailors' isolation more than three weeks after the Roosevelt was forced to dock in Guam on March 27, according to a memo viewed by POLITICO.
The move potentially delays the ship’s departure amid new questions about the spread of Covid-19.
Navy leadership took the steps after a number of sailors tested positive for the novel coronavirus even after their 14-day isolation period, three crew members told POLITICO. Some of the sailors who recently tested positive had previously tested negative, one Navy official said.
“Results of out-testing portions of the TR crew following 14 days of quarantine leads us to reevaluate our assessment of how the virus can remain active in an asymptomatic host,” according to a Navy directive sent to the crew and viewed by POLITICO.
“While further assessment is made regarding test-out procedures, I am directing a halt to all crew out-testing and holding any release from isolation and quarantine," the message read.
The Navy had planned to begin returning the crew to a coronavirus-free ship over the next few days with the goal of getting get back underway to continue its deployment.
"The process of moving them back onto the ship was going to start Saturday — that’s what's getting slowed down as they determine, hey, how do we make sure we are getting this right before we get them back on the ship?" the Navy official said.
As of Monday, the Navy had tested 94 percent of the crew for the virus, with 678 positive and 3,904 negative results. Most of the crew — 4,069 sailors — has been moved ashore and are now spread out between hotels, houses and facilities at the naval base.
But test results in recent days — after the 14-day isolation period — led the Navy to “reevaluate our assessment of how the virus can remain active in an asymptomatic host,” the directive read.
Crew members in quarantine and isolation across the island will be held in place while the Navy decides the path forward, the message said.
“I understand that this will delay progress toward underway for deploying units,” the message read. “We must take these actions to ensure we get underway with healthy crews."
Crew members began hearing the news through various official and nonofficial channels this week. Some sailors received the memo. Others received notes from their commanding officers. Others were unaware of the news.
"What this means for us is that we may have to remain in isolation/quarantine for a little bit longer than we originally hoped while the Navy and the medical professionals modify the testing procedures," according to a message from one of the ship's units that was viewed by POLITICO. "This is obviously not the news we want to receive right now, but it is extremely important that we get this right and don't allow an unknowingly infected person back aboard the ship and re-infect the crew.”
Is 100% negativity, with no recurring positives, in the entire crew, a realistic goal ?
How long before it's safe to re-embark crewmembers who continue to test negative & never tested positive ?
How quickly can they do antibody testing on every crewmember & re-embark the healthy herd members who were infected & recovered ?
Your odds are still better if you're a TR crewmember than a NYC at risk resident.
Last edited by old salt on Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nearly entire crew of coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier tested, 9 treated for symptoms
The U.S. Navy said Tuesday that nearly all crewmembers assigned to USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have been tested for the coronavirus.
“As of today, 94% of USS Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers were tested for Covid-19, with 710 total positive and 3,872 negative results,” the service wrote in a release.
Of the total cases, nine are currently being treated at the U.S. Naval Hospital Guam, 42 sailors have recovered and one sailor died. A significant number of the Roosevelt crew tested positive but displayed no symptoms.
The crew of any USN warship is a young, healthy herd. ...which I expect the CDC study to confirm {imho}
Is it to be understood that 52 of 710 required hospital care?
I've never seen sub totals of # of hospitalizations which total up to 52. All positives were housed ashore aboard the naval base, in quarantine, under medical supervision. Those 42 "recovered" may have included those who received outpatient treatment, although they may have admitted everyone to hospital who displayed any symptoms, as a precaution, since I never saw any reporting of hospital capacity being approached. I just saw reporting of 1 ICU admission, beyond the sailor who was discovered unresponsive & admitted to ICU too late to recover.
Ok. It’s not clear how severe the 42 cases were. Somewhere between 10-42.
Here's an unofficial leaked anecdotal data point :
For the 300 or so Roosevelt sailors packed into a base gymnasium on the island, quarantine has been oddly like a vacation.
They spend long hours playing the new Final Fantasy VII for PlayStation 4, which took days to download over the gym’s spotty Internet connection. They read and work out. One day last week, they ordered pizza from Domino's.
But every so often, reality comes crashing down. All of the sailors in the gym have tested positive for Covid-19. While most are experiencing only mild symptoms, such as headaches, a cough or muscle pain, a few are much sicker.
In the gym, crew members are on high alert. Last week, the authorities called an ambulance for a sailor with asthma who worried he wasn’t getting enough oxygen, one sailor said. The paramedics checked the asthmatic man’s vitals before returning him to his cot, where he now sleeps just a few yards from a makeshift medical office in a corner of the gymnasium.
“His inhaler doesn’t quite clear him up,” the sailor said. "They wanted to make sure he was breathing correctly.”
Aside from that incident, life has settled into a daily routine. The crew members have plenty of water, and line up for medical checks twice daily. Food is carefully rationed and not always appetizing, but at least they are off the ship.
Nearly entire crew of coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier tested, 9 treated for symptoms
The U.S. Navy said Tuesday that nearly all crewmembers assigned to USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have been tested for the coronavirus.
“As of today, 94% of USS Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers were tested for Covid-19, with 710 total positive and 3,872 negative results,” the service wrote in a release.
Of the total cases, nine are currently being treated at the U.S. Naval Hospital Guam, 42 sailors have recovered and one sailor died. A significant number of the Roosevelt crew tested positive but displayed no symptoms.
The crew of any USN warship is a young, healthy herd. ...which I expect the CDC study to confirm {imho}
Is it to be understood that 52 of 710 required hospital care?
I've never seen sub totals of # of hospitalizations which total up to 52. All positives were housed ashore aboard the naval base, in quarantine, under medical supervision. Those 42 "recovered" may have included those who received outpatient treatment, although they may have admitted everyone to hospital who displayed any symptoms, as a precaution, since I never saw any reporting of hospital capacity being approached. I just saw reporting of 1 ICU admission, beyond the sailor who was discovered unresponsive & admitted to ICU too late to recover.
Ok. It’s not clear how severe the 42 cases were. Somewhere between 10-42.
Here's an unofficial leaked anecdotal data point :
For the 300 or so Roosevelt sailors packed into a base gymnasium on the island, quarantine has been oddly like a vacation.
They spend long hours playing the new Final Fantasy VII for PlayStation 4, which took days to download over the gym’s spotty Internet connection. They read and work out. One day last week, they ordered pizza from Domino's.
But every so often, reality comes crashing down. All of the sailors in the gym have tested positive for Covid-19. While most are experiencing only mild symptoms, such as headaches, a cough or muscle pain, a few are much sicker.
In the gym, crew members are on high alert. Last week, the authorities called an ambulance for a sailor with asthma who worried he wasn’t getting enough oxygen, one sailor said. The paramedics checked the asthmatic man’s vitals before returning him to his cot, where he now sleeps just a few yards from a makeshift medical office in a corner of the gymnasium.
“His inhaler doesn’t quite clear him up,” the sailor said. "They wanted to make sure he was breathing correctly.”
Aside from that incident, life has settled into a daily routine. The crew members have plenty of water, and line up for medical checks twice daily. Food is carefully rationed and not always appetizing, but at least they are off the ship.
10/700 in hospital is about 1.4%. That’s super fit Navy guys.
. The only viral infections he may have to deal with assuming they are still there are the two houses over the runway that have plenty of women and Mustang Ranch is about 50 miles away. Be a great ending to his career.
yer a good man but you will never be Henry David Thoreau.
