All things CoronaVirus

[CU88]

AMERICAN LEADERSHIP

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/hist ... culations/

By immediately isolating anyone suspected of infection and limiting outside contact, Washington “prevented a disastrous epidemic among the Continental troops,” historian Ann Becker says. In March 1776, when the British withdrew from Boston, Washington even specified that only soldiers who had suffered from smallpox be allowed into the city and its surroundings.

[MDlaxfan76]

Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?

US is currently doing 150k tests per day. While Trump/Pence say that's enough to start re-opening, the experts say you need to get to 500k per day minimum before we can start coming out of our bunkers. But 1M a day would be better.

But any of you that want to come out sooner -- go ahead and mix it up with folks who agree with you. Just keep it to yourselves. How long till we hear the stories of this weekend's protesters winding up in ICU beds?

I don't understand screaming about the lock up orders. I do understand screaming "where is the forking test I need so I can go back to work?"

i'm still not sure that trump understands you can be asymptomatic and still have it, and pass it on to others. i really don't think he does.

having said that, don't have any confidence that 1 m tests is any better than 100k. everyone knows we have 330 m people in the country, right? if you did 1 m per day, that would be 10% of the entire population in a month, if in fact it was only one person for every test.
how does that work?
over the course of 1 month, 10% of the entire population is tested. what is everyone else doing at this time? are we assuming some validation of immunity gets attached at some point? what about all the people that test negative and are now all out there mixing it up with everyone else? or are they not allowed to work until they get it? i can only imagine the unintended consequences of a policy like that.

who are we testing, people with symptoms? anyone that needs/wants to get back to work so they can be cleared (if immunity, of course).

everybody's just throwing out testing, testing. honestly, i don't even know what it means in the construct of what we'd be doing it for. if it's to clear people for work/get out there in the open, a million tests a day doesn't make a dent.

If I'm not mistaken, it's not to test EVERYONE but rather to do as SK did, test, isolate, contact trace, test, isolate and so on.

That doesn't require nearly as many tests, but you ARE testing everyone suspected to have been in contact with a confirmed case. And that's a lot of tests.

But if you aren't doing at least those tests, you definitely know that there's infected people out there infecting others unknowingly.

Now, you can reduce that problem further with lots of continued social distancing, masks, hygiene etc as we get back to some semblance of 'normal' but you can be pretty sure there will be new outbreaks if you're not doing contact tracing and testing.

[Trinity]

Three percent of South Koreans are infected because they took it seriously.

[6ftstick]

Three percent of South Koreans are infected because they took it seriously.

Ours is less than 1%. Whats your point.

[Trinity]

They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

[wgdsr]

Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?

US is currently doing 150k tests per day. While Trump/Pence say that's enough to start re-opening, the experts say you need to get to 500k per day minimum before we can start coming out of our bunkers. But 1M a day would be better.

But any of you that want to come out sooner -- go ahead and mix it up with folks who agree with you. Just keep it to yourselves. How long till we hear the stories of this weekend's protesters winding up in ICU beds?

I don't understand screaming about the lock up orders. I do understand screaming "where is the forking test I need so I can go back to work?"

i'm still not sure that trump understands you can be asymptomatic and still have it, and pass it on to others. i really don't think he does.

having said that, don't have any confidence that 1 m tests is any better than 100k. everyone knows we have 330 m people in the country, right? if you did 1 m per day, that would be 10% of the entire population in a month, if in fact it was only one person for every test.
how does that work?
over the course of 1 month, 10% of the entire population is tested. what is everyone else doing at this time? are we assuming some validation of immunity gets attached at some point? what about all the people that test negative and are now all out there mixing it up with everyone else? or are they not allowed to work until they get it? i can only imagine the unintended consequences of a policy like that.

who are we testing, people with symptoms? anyone that needs/wants to get back to work so they can be cleared (if immunity, of course).

everybody's just throwing out testing, testing. honestly, i don't even know what it means in the construct of what we'd be doing it for. if it's to clear people for work/get out there in the open, a million tests a day doesn't make a dent.

If I'm not mistaken, it's not to test EVERYONE but rather to do as SK did, test, isolate, contact trace, test, isolate and so on.

That doesn't require nearly as many tests, but you ARE testing everyone suspected to have been in contact with a confirmed case. And that's a lot of tests.

But if you aren't doing at least those tests, you definitely know that there's infected people out there infecting others unknowingly.

Now, you can reduce that problem further with lots of continued social distancing, masks, hygiene etc as we get back to some semblance of 'normal' but you can be pretty sure there will be new outbreaks if you're not doing contact tracing and testing.

from what i understand, contact tracing has left the barn a while ago. i have said for weeks it's my belief many more people MAY have it/have had it than we think. not 2-3 x more. loads more. which mean our daily interactions now, and as they "open up" are going to have us at a level where contact tracing is a laughable thought.
la county study just chimed in:
https://deadline.com/2020/04/coronaviru ... 202911901/

once again, however... only 800 people, and a leader of the study --- looks like is saying it was an offer for folks to come volunteer:
https://priceschool.usc.edu/price-talks ... 9-testing/

there will be some momentum now finally for objectively looking at a population in the coming days and weeks. other decisions are going to need to be made if in fact this has gotten to 2, 3, 5% or more of the population, all with social distancing going on over for a month. with a 0.2%-0.4% ish or thereabouts case fatality.

if these prelim studies are so skewed and biased that they're worthless, it's a nothing burger. if they're pointing to a much larger infection rate, i believe we're going to be looking at policies aimed at expecting the infection to happen. measures to keep it from spreading it too fast and away from vulnerable populations would still be in order somewhat, but my guess that'd be what's next if we're already at 10 m people or more.

edit: above in purple. the chances of this might be slim, or they might be 15-20%, or i just might be making up probabilities, which i am. but my insinct has been that the chances aren't infintesimal that we have something much bigger than advertised. that's good in some ways, not so good in others i.e. how would we keep it from vulnerable pop's short of a vaccine, working therapeutic or vaccine? is it even possible?
there are many things that don't make sense to me about the reporting and extent of this virus, maybe because that most precious commodity of all --- information--- has either been non-existent or wrong. we have "x" number of cases. we have no idea how many there have been. in the middle of a widespread, fast-moving pandemic, this is almost universally the case.

[CU88]

Trump on March 6:

"Anybody right now, and I think yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They're there. They have the tests and the tests are beautiful."

It is almost as if he lied...

[6ftstick]

They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

[MDlaxfan76]

Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?

US is currently doing 150k tests per day. While Trump/Pence say that's enough to start re-opening, the experts say you need to get to 500k per day minimum before we can start coming out of our bunkers. But 1M a day would be better.

But any of you that want to come out sooner -- go ahead and mix it up with folks who agree with you. Just keep it to yourselves. How long till we hear the stories of this weekend's protesters winding up in ICU beds?

I don't understand screaming about the lock up orders. I do understand screaming "where is the forking test I need so I can go back to work?"

i'm still not sure that trump understands you can be asymptomatic and still have it, and pass it on to others. i really don't think he does.

having said that, don't have any confidence that 1 m tests is any better than 100k. everyone knows we have 330 m people in the country, right? if you did 1 m per day, that would be 10% of the entire population in a month, if in fact it was only one person for every test.
how does that work?
over the course of 1 month, 10% of the entire population is tested. what is everyone else doing at this time? are we assuming some validation of immunity gets attached at some point? what about all the people that test negative and are now all out there mixing it up with everyone else? or are they not allowed to work until they get it? i can only imagine the unintended consequences of a policy like that.

who are we testing, people with symptoms? anyone that needs/wants to get back to work so they can be cleared (if immunity, of course).

everybody's just throwing out testing, testing. honestly, i don't even know what it means in the construct of what we'd be doing it for. if it's to clear people for work/get out there in the open, a million tests a day doesn't make a dent.

If I'm not mistaken, it's not to test EVERYONE but rather to do as SK did, test, isolate, contact trace, test, isolate and so on.

That doesn't require nearly as many tests, but you ARE testing everyone suspected to have been in contact with a confirmed case. And that's a lot of tests.

But if you aren't doing at least those tests, you definitely know that there's infected people out there infecting others unknowingly.

Now, you can reduce that problem further with lots of continued social distancing, masks, hygiene etc as we get back to some semblance of 'normal' but you can be pretty sure there will be new outbreaks if you're not doing contact tracing and testing.

from what i understand, contact tracing has left the barn a while ago. i have said for weeks it's my belief many more people have it/have had it than we think. not 2-3 x more. loads more. which mean our daily interactions now, and as they "open up" are going to have us at a level where contact tracing is a laughable thought.
la county study just chimed in:
https://deadline.com/2020/04/coronaviru ... 202911901/

once again, however... only 800 people, and a leader of the study --- looks like is saying it was an offer for folks to come volunteer:
https://priceschool.usc.edu/price-talks ... 9-testing/

there will be some momentum now finally for objectively looking at a population in the coming days and weeks. other decisions are going to need to be made if in fact this has gotten to 2, 3, 5% or more of the population, all with social distancing going on over for a month. with a 0.2%-0.4% ish or thereabouts case fatality.

if these prelim studies are so skewed and biased that they're worthless, it's a nothing burger. if they're pointing to a much larger infection rate, i believe we're going to be looking at policies aimed at expecting the infection to happen. measures to keep it from spreading it too fast and away from vulnerable populations would still be in order somewhat, but my guess that'd be what's next if we're already at 10 m people or more.

Not sure that's right.
Just because you have previously been infected doesn't mean you are shedding virus now, nor does it mean (or at least we don't know for sure) that you can't be infected and be a carrier going forward with a new viral load.

And whether it's 95% or 90% or 80% of the population that hasn't been infected, yet, that's a lot of dry tinder, for sure.

So, contact tracing can still be crucial in tracking actual, actively infectious cases.

That's not the antibody tests, that's testing for current infections. That's what we need to keep the lid on outbreaks...until a vaccine.

Or do I have this logic wrong? Won't be the first or last time...

[MDlaxfan76]

They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

How many as of 3/15?

They closed the barn door, we're testing the poop to see how many horses got out of our barn...

[RedFromMI]

They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

[wgdsr]

Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?

US is currently doing 150k tests per day. While Trump/Pence say that's enough to start re-opening, the experts say you need to get to 500k per day minimum before we can start coming out of our bunkers. But 1M a day would be better.

But any of you that want to come out sooner -- go ahead and mix it up with folks who agree with you. Just keep it to yourselves. How long till we hear the stories of this weekend's protesters winding up in ICU beds?

I don't understand screaming about the lock up orders. I do understand screaming "where is the forking test I need so I can go back to work?"

i'm still not sure that trump understands you can be asymptomatic and still have it, and pass it on to others. i really don't think he does.

having said that, don't have any confidence that 1 m tests is any better than 100k. everyone knows we have 330 m people in the country, right? if you did 1 m per day, that would be 10% of the entire population in a month, if in fact it was only one person for every test.
how does that work?
over the course of 1 month, 10% of the entire population is tested. what is everyone else doing at this time? are we assuming some validation of immunity gets attached at some point? what about all the people that test negative and are now all out there mixing it up with everyone else? or are they not allowed to work until they get it? i can only imagine the unintended consequences of a policy like that.

who are we testing, people with symptoms? anyone that needs/wants to get back to work so they can be cleared (if immunity, of course).

everybody's just throwing out testing, testing. honestly, i don't even know what it means in the construct of what we'd be doing it for. if it's to clear people for work/get out there in the open, a million tests a day doesn't make a dent.

If I'm not mistaken, it's not to test EVERYONE but rather to do as SK did, test, isolate, contact trace, test, isolate and so on.

That doesn't require nearly as many tests, but you ARE testing everyone suspected to have been in contact with a confirmed case. And that's a lot of tests.

But if you aren't doing at least those tests, you definitely know that there's infected people out there infecting others unknowingly.

Now, you can reduce that problem further with lots of continued social distancing, masks, hygiene etc as we get back to some semblance of 'normal' but you can be pretty sure there will be new outbreaks if you're not doing contact tracing and testing.

from what i understand, contact tracing has left the barn a while ago. i have said for weeks it's my belief many more people have it/have had it than we think. not 2-3 x more. loads more. which mean our daily interactions now, and as they "open up" are going to have us at a level where contact tracing is a laughable thought.
la county study just chimed in:
https://deadline.com/2020/04/coronaviru ... 202911901/

once again, however... only 800 people, and a leader of the study --- looks like is saying it was an offer for folks to come volunteer:
https://priceschool.usc.edu/price-talks ... 9-testing/

there will be some momentum now finally for objectively looking at a population in the coming days and weeks. other decisions are going to need to be made if in fact this has gotten to 2, 3, 5% or more of the population, all with social distancing going on over for a month. with a 0.2%-0.4% ish or thereabouts case fatality.

if these prelim studies are so skewed and biased that they're worthless, it's a nothing burger. if they're pointing to a much larger infection rate, i believe we're going to be looking at policies aimed at expecting the infection to happen. measures to keep it from spreading it too fast and away from vulnerable populations would still be in order somewhat, but my guess that'd be what's next if we're already at 10 m people or more.

Not sure that's right.
Just because you have previously been infected doesn't mean you are shedding virus now, nor does it mean (or at least we don't know for sure) that you can't be infected and be a carrier going forward with a new viral load.

And whether it's 95% or 90% or 80% of the population that hasn't been infected, yet, that's a lot of dry tinder, for sure.

So, contact tracing can still be crucial in tracking actual, actively infectious cases.

That's not the antibody tests, that's testing for current infections. That's what we need to keep the lid on outbreaks...until a vaccine.

Or do I have this logic wrong? Won't be the first or last time...

you're not evaluating the scale of what you're suggesting the same way i am. tomato, tomato. even @ the level of positives we're getting now. if those levels trail off to minimal amounts (even 3 or 4 figures per day with widespread testing available), for the long term? great.
if they don't, contact tracing is multiplying every confirmed case by 5? conservatively. think of the web that entails. daily. who is doing that work?

on the ground level, you could expect someone who comes down with it confirmed to tell all his family and co-workers and others... is he going to tell the barista? or someone that he gave $10 to park his car? how does he tell everyone that was on his subway line? the one he was on, and the ones after him?

anyway, it's another week... we'll see where this thing goes next. my biggest thing everyday is hoping for an effective treatment to come out of the labs.

[old salt]

Here's the NR article Trump just mentioned on how the media blew the ventilator story,
...with their "gotcha idiocy". Can't wait for the apology to Jared.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/ ... ge-deftly/

[youthathletics]

They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

[MDlaxfan76]

Two months, to get 1/2 a million tests. How many years to get 330 million? this is leadership?

US is currently doing 150k tests per day. While Trump/Pence say that's enough to start re-opening, the experts say you need to get to 500k per day minimum before we can start coming out of our bunkers. But 1M a day would be better.

But any of you that want to come out sooner -- go ahead and mix it up with folks who agree with you. Just keep it to yourselves. How long till we hear the stories of this weekend's protesters winding up in ICU beds?

I don't understand screaming about the lock up orders. I do understand screaming "where is the forking test I need so I can go back to work?"

i'm still not sure that trump understands you can be asymptomatic and still have it, and pass it on to others. i really don't think he does.

having said that, don't have any confidence that 1 m tests is any better than 100k. everyone knows we have 330 m people in the country, right? if you did 1 m per day, that would be 10% of the entire population in a month, if in fact it was only one person for every test.
how does that work?
over the course of 1 month, 10% of the entire population is tested. what is everyone else doing at this time? are we assuming some validation of immunity gets attached at some point? what about all the people that test negative and are now all out there mixing it up with everyone else? or are they not allowed to work until they get it? i can only imagine the unintended consequences of a policy like that.

who are we testing, people with symptoms? anyone that needs/wants to get back to work so they can be cleared (if immunity, of course).

everybody's just throwing out testing, testing. honestly, i don't even know what it means in the construct of what we'd be doing it for. if it's to clear people for work/get out there in the open, a million tests a day doesn't make a dent.

If I'm not mistaken, it's not to test EVERYONE but rather to do as SK did, test, isolate, contact trace, test, isolate and so on.

That doesn't require nearly as many tests, but you ARE testing everyone suspected to have been in contact with a confirmed case. And that's a lot of tests.

But if you aren't doing at least those tests, you definitely know that there's infected people out there infecting others unknowingly.

Now, you can reduce that problem further with lots of continued social distancing, masks, hygiene etc as we get back to some semblance of 'normal' but you can be pretty sure there will be new outbreaks if you're not doing contact tracing and testing.

from what i understand, contact tracing has left the barn a while ago. i have said for weeks it's my belief many more people have it/have had it than we think. not 2-3 x more. loads more. which mean our daily interactions now, and as they "open up" are going to have us at a level where contact tracing is a laughable thought.
la county study just chimed in:
https://deadline.com/2020/04/coronaviru ... 202911901/

once again, however... only 800 people, and a leader of the study --- looks like is saying it was an offer for folks to come volunteer:
https://priceschool.usc.edu/price-talks ... 9-testing/

there will be some momentum now finally for objectively looking at a population in the coming days and weeks. other decisions are going to need to be made if in fact this has gotten to 2, 3, 5% or more of the population, all with social distancing going on over for a month. with a 0.2%-0.4% ish or thereabouts case fatality.

if these prelim studies are so skewed and biased that they're worthless, it's a nothing burger. if they're pointing to a much larger infection rate, i believe we're going to be looking at policies aimed at expecting the infection to happen. measures to keep it from spreading it too fast and away from vulnerable populations would still be in order somewhat, but my guess that'd be what's next if we're already at 10 m people or more.

Not sure that's right.
Just because you have previously been infected doesn't mean you are shedding virus now, nor does it mean (or at least we don't know for sure) that you can't be infected and be a carrier going forward with a new viral load.

And whether it's 95% or 90% or 80% of the population that hasn't been infected, yet, that's a lot of dry tinder, for sure.

So, contact tracing can still be crucial in tracking actual, actively infectious cases.

That's not the antibody tests, that's testing for current infections. That's what we need to keep the lid on outbreaks...until a vaccine.

Or do I have this logic wrong? Won't be the first or last time...

you're not evaluating the scale of what you're suggesting the same way i am. tomato, tomato. even @ the level of positives we're getting now. if those levels trail off to minimal amounts (even 3 or 4 figures per day with widespread testing available), for the long term? great.
if they don't, contact tracing is multiplying every confirmed case by 5? conservatively. think of the web that entails. daily. who is doing that work?

on the ground level, you could expect someone who comes down with it confirmed to tell all his family and co-workers and others... is he going to tell the barista? or someone that he gave $10 to park his car? how does he tell everyone that was on his subway line? the one he was on, and the ones after him?

anyway, it's another week... we'll see where this thing goes next. my biggest thing everyday is hoping for an effective treatment to come out of the labs.

are you conflating the two types of tests, perhaps?

The contract tracing is on currently infectious, not someone who was infectious at some unknown point in the past.

If currently infectious, need to find anyone else currently infectious and isolate them to prevent further spread. It's an ongoing battle, but it's not testing everyone for past infections.

Different sort of test. More of a 'nice to have' but not part of contact tracing to prevent outbreaks.

But in order for this to be manageable, which I think is your point, we need to get the #'s of actively infectious people suppressed enough, through the stay at home process, to actually be able to target the relatively few such..and their contacts.

But if it blooms out of control, you have to go back to stay at home draconian measures like we're doing now.

[MDlaxfan76]

They’ve tested a wide sample including asymptomatic subjects. We’re still wiping our ass with rocks.

Total test south Korea 559K as of 4/19

Total US tests 2.688.766 million as of 4/12

SK had only 10661 cases as of that date.

Current test number for US about 3.6 million, and 788,000 cases. Factor of more than 10 in number of cases - and about 6 in testing. And since we are still not testing enough - no one knows the actual case count in the US.

NYT on 4/17 published an article saying the experts think we need to triple our daily capacity for testing...

This massive early testing everyone complains about really makes little sense, why? because we would have completely wiped out our PPE stock pile in a very short time, then been left with very little for those that need it to treat sick people. There HAD to be a slow roll out, in order to stock pile PPE.

HUH?

No, we needed to keep the cases low, the infections suppressed so that we didn't have health systems overwhelmed. Including use of PPE.

But of course we also needed to do emergency runs of PPE in parallel.

[ggait]

having said that, don't have any confidence that 1 m tests is any better than 100k. everyone knows we have 330 m people in the country, right? if you did 1 m per day, that would be 10% of the entire population in a month, if in fact it was only one person for every test.
how does that work?

Experts not in Trump's administration are saying you need 500-700k daily minimum (although more is always better) to get you to the point where you have a useful tool to work with. Anything below that is driving at night with no headlights. So clearly not the dumb-assery of 150k that Pence is trying to sell us currently.

But you don't need 325 million per day. Everyone in the country doesn't need to be able to get a test on demand every day. Everyone in the country WHO NEEDS A TEST needs to be able to get it on demand. That's 500-1,000k per day. Not where we currently are, but not impossible to do if you aren't completely screwing up.

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has said you need 300k per day to re-open. Basically in the same ballpark.

And there are others who say you need 20 million per day. Eye roll. If those guys are right (doubtful), then we should all just go back to work today and get infected. Because 20 million a day ain't ever gonna happen.

[MDlaxfan76]

Here's the NR article Trump just mentioned on how the media blew the ventilator story,
...with their "gotcha idiocy". Can't wait for the apology to Jared.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/ ... ge-deftly/

I did seem to be an almost gleeful jump on Jared...though it really was a stupid way to say it, something he could have easily clarified in the ensuing period.

But, nah, we really did run out of ventilators in some hospitals, with all sorts of jury rig 'solutions' that put both patients in jeopardy. and there really was rationing of who got to go on the ventilator and who was just assumed to be a lost cause. That really did happen in some NYC hospitals.

But it certainly could have been way, way worse. Social distancing worked, thank god.

PPE? Testing?
Bueller, Bueller?

[DocBarrister]

Here's the NR article Trump just mentioned on how the media blew the ventilator story,
...with their "gotcha idiocy". Can't wait for the apology to Jared.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/ ... ge-deftly/

I did seem to be an almost gleeful jump on Jared...though it really was a stupid way to say it, something he could have easily clarified in the ensuing period.

But, nah, we really did run out of ventilators in some hospitals, with all sorts of jury rig 'solutions' that put both patients in jeopardy. and there really was rationing of who got to go on the ventilator and who was just assumed to be a lost cause. That really did happen in some NYC hospitals.

But it certainly could have been way, way worse. Social distancing worked, thank god.

PPE? Testing?
Bueller, Bueller?

The author of the National Review article is oblivious to a major weakness of the approach described ... 24-48 hours is NOT fast when it comes to the coronavirus. Patients with Covid-19 can crash very quickly ... not over one or two days (24-48 hours), but within 1 or 2 hours. Boasting of a 24-48 hour delivery time for ventilators is only displaying one’s ignorance.

They stayed just slightly in front of that breaking wave, but not by much. Count them lucky, but don’t deem them prescient.

DocBarrister

[Typical Lax Dad]

having said that, don't have any confidence that 1 m tests is any better than 100k. everyone knows we have 330 m people in the country, right? if you did 1 m per day, that would be 10% of the entire population in a month, if in fact it was only one person for every test.
how does that work?

Experts not in Trump's administration are saying you need 500-700k daily minimum (although more is always better) to get you to the point where you have a useful tool to work with. Anything below that is driving at night with no headlights. So clearly not the dumb-assery of 150k that Pence is trying to sell us currently.

But you don't need 325 million per day. Everyone in the country doesn't need to be able to get a test on demand every day. Everyone in the country WHO NEEDS A TEST needs to be able to get it on demand. That's 500-1,000k per day. Not where we currently are, but not impossible to do if you aren't completely screwing up.

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has said you need 300k per day to re-open. Basically in the same ballpark.

And there are others who say you need 20 million per day. Eye roll. If those guys are right (doubtful), then we should all just go back to work today and get infected. Because 20 million a day ain't ever gonna happen.

You don't need to test people in remote areas where the virus isn't proliferating. You can drill down by zip code and if the incidence is above a threshold, you test the population. It would be a start. Anyone looking for a " this isn't as dangerous as they claimed" is barking up the wrong tree. This disease is the number one killer in the country. When was that the case for the seasonal flu? We are going to eclipse the 6 month flu number in half the time.