Johns Hopkins 2021

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

If the Stanwicks hadn’t come to Hopkins, Brown hadn’t emerged, and others like Tinney led the offense in big ways, we might have had a new OC or entire new staff by now.

They made Benson look good. For awhile at least.

And who brought them all to Hopkins?

Yes, Benson and Petro. They made the four look good, too.

Two-way street.

DocBarrister

It’s impossible to ruin some talent.

[HopFan16]

Not a perfect fit necessarily at all. Look - he's a very very good player - 2 X 3rd team AA so better accolades than any Hopkins attack man for a while but look what they have to consider if he joined the team - let's even forget the excellent points about scholarship $ and roster size but what exactly do you tell Murphy? What do you tell Angelus? What do you tell McDermott? Bauer even? And what do you tell Epstein? Sorry Joseph - I know we told you that you had the keys to the car but now.... how about you play a little wing? And its not that Epstein couldn't play on the side but why would you want him to? I imagine if you had Pat Spencer play middie - he would be a pretty darn good middie - but again why ever would you think to do it? You are taking a year away from Epstein and making him play a piece of the field that may not be optimal for him. If you were to add Morrill you better be pretty sure you know what you're doing. Sowers, for example, is a slightly different animal- he's the best player in the country most likely so then you have a better argument with everyone else if for some reason he wanted to come to Hopkins its simply something you likely can't pass up.

Morrill and Brandau seemed to coexist quite well for Yale last year. Brandau and Epstein aren't the same player of course but they're really not so different—in fact their stats last year were virtually identical. Morrill and Reeves looked good together the year before. Offenses can support two guys who carry the ball a lot. We're so used to Benson's offenses being 1) X attackman 2) left wing 3) right wing but that was likely tailored to personnel—Epstein and Morrill are both good enough to wear multiple hats even within a single game—it's a motion offense after all and the whole idea is supposed to be (in theory) that guys get moved around like pieces on a chess board. It might not be the absolute easiest simplest thing ever but good thing Benson would have several months to figure out a way to make it work while quarantined. Don't really see it as "taking a year away from Epstein" and my guess is he wouldn't see it that way either. You have a chance to add an elite attackman for a year—if you think he helps the team win and the other guys are on board, you go for it. If he goes "coach I don't like this move, I think it messes with our chemistry" then you would obviously think twice but I can't see him or anyone coming out against a chance to make the team better especially after a 2-4 debacle of a season in which it was abundantly clear they were at least 1-2 threats short on offense. Epstein-Morrill-Grimes with Murphy as a 4th attackman coming in through the box and Angelus can play the "Baskin" middie shortie iso game for a year. Were Bauer and McDermott going to start on attack in 2021 anyway? It can work.

[FannOLax]

If you were to add Morrill you better be pretty sure you know what you're doing. Sowers, for example, is a slightly different animal- he's the best player in the country most likely so then you have a better argument with everyone else if for some reason he wanted to come to Hopkins its simply something you likely can't pass up.

Morrill has a tremendous lacrosse IQ; he filled various roles for Yale, sometimes more than one in a single game. Plus, what Orfling and HopFan16 said. Sure, Sowers is better, but Morrill knows how to fit in and help a team win.

[MDlaxfan76]

Seems to me that Sowers would make ANY team better, Morrill quite likely would do so as well.

I don't see any issues with having multiple guys who can carry, feed, dodge, finish, ride, ground ball...none of these guys are ball hogs.

It would be different if they were, but they aren't.

BTW, the best players love to play with other super talented players.
Lax IQ is almost exponential...

[wgdsr]

Not a perfect fit necessarily at all. Look - he's a very very good player - 2 X 3rd team AA so better accolades than any Hopkins attack man for a while but look what they have to consider if he joined the team - let's even forget the excellent points about scholarship $ and roster size but what exactly do you tell Murphy? What do you tell Angelus? What do you tell McDermott? Bauer even? And what do you tell Epstein? Sorry Joseph - I know we told you that you had the keys to the car but now.... how about you play a little wing? And its not that Epstein couldn't play on the side but why would you want him to? I imagine if you had Pat Spencer play middie - he would be a pretty darn good middie - but again why ever would you think to do it? You are taking a year away from Epstein and making him play a piece of the field that may not be optimal for him. If you were to add Morrill you better be pretty sure you know what you're doing. Sowers, for example, is a slightly different animal- he's the best player in the country most likely so then you have a better argument with everyone else if for some reason he wanted to come to Hopkins its simply something you likely can't pass up.

disagree. while i don't personally agree with some others about epstein's level of play (w/a huge pass on him being a frosh and a higher ceiling... not to mention captain and supposed work ethic)... epstien still runs the o with a morrill there. and probably gets better for it. morrill better as a piece to play off an epstein/reeves.
sowers diff animal, as u say. still think they'd amplify, but sowers i'd give high odds unless a biology major that could be allowed to do a limited life science curriculum for a year.

[jhu93]

If the Stanwicks hadn’t come to Hopkins, Brown hadn’t emerged, and others like Tinney led the offense in big ways, we might have had a new OC or entire new staff by now.

They made Benson look good. For awhile at least.

And who brought them all to Hopkins?

Yes, Benson and Petro. They made the four look good, too.

Two-way street.

DocBarrister

It’s impossible to ruin some talent.

Yes, it is 2020, not 2009. After the near constant horror show of the past 12 years this staff does not deserve to get the benefit of the doubt for anything. Until proven otherwise I would assume that if you gave them Syracuse's 1989 team they would still get blown out in the quarterfinals if they were lucky enough to make it out of the first round even if the first round game was at home.

[MDlaxfan76]

ouch

[51percentcorn]

I'm not saying Morrill should be dismissed out of hand - can always use talented players and people who can carry the ball. It does matter, however, what space they typically occupy on the field, how much they need the ball in their stick, what they envision their roles to be and how it impacts the team overall. No, McDermott and Bauer would not likely start in 2021 - but there went any chance to see the field at attack at all. Murphy might very well expect to start and you theoretically have him for 4 years I'm not saying he's Jackson Morrill but I like the kid alot. All I am really saying it is not NECESSARILY an automatic fit that translates into super duper offense - maybe it does - maybe it doesn't. We need help at midfield and defense and goalie alot more. The one positive he brings is experience - Murphy, Grimes and Epstein would be silly young - that you would like

[HopFan16]

Today was supposed to be senior day, so the team did a tribute to each of the 9 seniors (minus Concannon, who got his last year) on Instagram. They don't say explicitly what their plans are but it's got an air of finality to it, and if you read between the lines it seems like a goodbye. Obviously can't say for sure but until we get some official word (or if someone in the know wants to share) I'm gonna go ahead and assume none of them come back. If that's the case I'm sure jhu06 will materialize soon to call them all garbage as they head out the door. On a more human note, if this is indeed the end, good luck to all in the future and thanks for representing the school well. I've heard a lot of good things about Cole, Forry, Concannon, etc. as people.

As far as what their departure would mean lacrosse-wise, you're losing:

- Three-year starter at close D (Colwell)
- Three-year starter on attack (Williams)
- Last season's #1 SSDM (Hubler)
- Midfield/attack occasional starter and contributor (Smith)
- Middie who battled injuries but was productive when healthy (Concannon)
- Started briefly at close D in shortened season (Lyne)

No Stanwick/Tinney/Brown superstars in this class but several contributors who need replacing.

So headed in 2021—assuming the lineup remains the same as it was (it may not)—there are now two openings at close defense, one on starting attack, two at offensive midfield, and one at SSDM.

McManus is the only returning pole with any close D experience. If the defense was inexperienced in 2020 I'm not sure there's an adjective in the dictionary that properly conveys how young and inexperienced they'll be (barring a transfer) in 2021. Infantile? Perhaps Reinson finally bumps down to close to give that unit some actual experience. Otherwise—Calnan could be an option after being a preseason superstar this year. And if ever there was a year for a defensive recruit to come in and immediately make an impact, it's going to be next year, so now is your time if you're Scott Smith. There are a ton of other options: the law firm of Rodgers, Ruddy, and Fox—all giants—along with Gomez, Shure, Keneally, etc.

On attack you'd assume Grimes will slide right into the Williams role. Again, barring the off chance a Morrill or a Morrill-like attackman finds his way to Homewood this summer, the rest of the attack is likely Epstein and Murphy with a mixture of Angelus, McDermott, Bauer, maybe Chauvette—though they could all find time at midfield as well now that there is an opening or two there. Also keep in mind we would theoretically be getting Keogh back healthy.

Goalie: It's in god's hands.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

You know, I’d really prefer to see the fanbase stop attacking one another.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Sim season continues:

https://lacrossereference.com/game-win- ... _20200411/

2-4
1-4 simulated
——
3-8

Next up, Ohio State next Sunday.

[51percentcorn]

Nice analysis '16 - the defense is, somewhat ironically, in the exact same place it would have been had there been no controversy on the Hopkins end and no pandemic to introduce uncertainty. If Foley and Rapine had played - the defense probably would have been somewhat better but lets not kid ourselves - there was no gold trophy at the end of the rainbow for this team. Therefore, Colwell, Rapine and Foley would have started probably every game and here we are - replacing all 3 poles at once. It is daunting - but this brings up the chicken or the egg in recruiting evaluations - are these players really talented or are they given upgrades for a Hopkins bias. Smith/Gomez/Shure/Rodgers were all ranked Top 100 in their class. Ruddy/McManus/Keneally were all ranked in the Top 50 of defensemen in their class. I would imagine - if you buy into these rankings for even a crumb - alot of programs would like those numbers. Even if you are the most ardent Ty X and recruiting ranking detractor, you might figure you could find 3 out of the 7 than can play at least a little bit.

The perhaps biggest issue is 58 - you cannot have 58 names on the roster. I know the numbers don't work out by position but you are 2 guys away from nominally running 3 full instrasquad scrimmages!!!! So there has to be attrition.

The attack looks like you could be cooking with gas with a mobile young group. Despite finding a bright light in Degnon, the midfield still seems to be a mess. Baskin and Keogh would seem to be destined for their prior roles, Zinn is still a threat but must improve his accuracy and decision making. One might think McDermott and Bauer are destined for the midfield as well - with Murphy and McDermott now having the same number of years in eligibility - it seems one of them almost has to play out top. Then you are bringing in 8 names with M next to them led by 3 Martin/Peshko/Raposo who are getting 4 stars and Top 100 rankings. There's talent on the offensive end I think - but again managing the masses will be a challenge if they are all present.

So you are back to 4 goalies with an incumbent that can't get out of the 46% basement. DiMarsico is rated as a 4 * but Shadyside Academy in PIttsburgh would not exactly be known as a lacrosse factory. Yes I am sure he has played well on the summer circuit and club - but day in and day out this has to be a huge step. Gainey is the first name I would pull out of the hat.

You will be very young at the defensive midfield with the possible exception of Reinson - Jaronski showed flashes but also struggled at times. Hard to say whether they will be better or worse

[stupefied]

Morrill -Hopkins marriage seems like a good bet and believe one pole coming ur way nm, secure one of the good goalies in the portal and your team with a healthy Epstein and several good youngsters be right back to being a competitive team under Petro.

[Sagittarius A*]

Sim season continues:

https://lacrossereference.com/game-win- ... _20200411/

2-4
1-4 simulated
——
3-8

Next up, Ohio State next Sunday.

These simulations are actually a lot of fun to watch real time.

So, I wrote to Zack, who runs this site, and suggested the idea of having a simulated tournament of the best Hopkins teams in the Tournament era, basically the last 50 years, consisting of the National Championship teams 1974, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1984, 1985, 1987, 2005, 2007. He replied and said that there's enough statistical data available online to run these simulations.

So, he's hoping that there's interest for this in the Hopkins community and invites fans to email him at his contact page to express their support:

https://lacrossereference.com/contact/

He's asking for a donation to the a charitable foundation called Digital Harbor Foundation that does technology education for kids:

https://www.digitalharbor.org/

"Digital Harbor Foundation is dedicated to fostering learning, creativity, productivity, and community through education. In 2013 we transformed a closed-down rec center in Baltimore City into a vibrant Tech Center for youth. In 2014 we launched the Center of Excellence to train others how to incorporate making into their own learning environments."

Anyway, he says if enough fans express their interest and support, he'll set up and run the simulated tournament.
So, if you'd like to see this, and I think it would be pretty cool especially since there's no lax right now, please email Zack and let him to know you would like to see a Hopkins All-Time Simulated Tournament and express your support for it. It would be a neat way of finding out the best Hopkins team in the modern era and it would be a win-win all the way around IMO.

A possible seeding might be something like:

1. 1979
2. 2005
3. 1984
4. 1985
5. 1978
6. 1980
7. 1974
8. 2007 v 1987 play-in game.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Since I stopped sending money to Hopkins quite some time ago (because of nonsense at many levels), this sounds like a much better cause.

I’m in.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Sim season continues:

https://lacrossereference.com/game-win- ... _20200411/

2-4
1-4 simulated
——
3-8

Next up, Ohio State next Sunday.

Simulated B1G Standings through Saturday’s games:

B1G Sim Standings 11APR2020

74525763-8B00-4194-B9CE-7381577B8C0F.jpeg (83.61 KiB) Viewed 2264 times

[laxreference]

Simulated B1G Standings through Saturday’s games:

74525763-8B00-4194-B9CE-7381577B8C0F.jpeg

After you posted this, I noticed something funny; JHU should have been in the projected 5th spot based on the probabilities for each slot. It's been updated.

[kramerica.inc]

Phew. That projected 6 seed would get Petro fired. 5th seed saves his bacon!

[molo]

Pretty optimistic to be talking about the 2021 season. Absent a vaccine, I expect the status quo to continue for another 18 months or so. 2022 may be more reasonable.

[Comeonman]

I love you Hop guys for your passion - more posts than any other board, and it’s not even close. Yes, you need a goalie (either Adler or Kirson), and Morrill makes a lot of sense (and I’d be surprised if he goes elsewhere), but the way you rip on Petro is indicative of your problem. A HoF player and a great coach, but the team chemistry is off. The culture is one of complaints. His time has expired. The school, sadly, needs to move on from him. That can’t be fixed in a year with any recruit (including Sowers), but I’d love to see the program come back. It just won’t be next year.