All things CoronaVirus

[wgdsr]

Unfortunately there was more data available early on (say by 2/1) than is often admitted. If the federal response would have been ramping up as was intended by the structure Bush (originally) and Obama had set up we would be in so much better shape. But the Donald let Xi snow him as to the actual nature of the threat (and he still cannot see beyond how the crippled economy is screwing up his re-election chances).
It (testing) matters hugely to how fast we can ramp things back up. In an economy so heavily based on consumer confidence, if people are not confident in safely going outside, they will just stay home as much as they can. Killer for brick and mortar retail, which includes a lot of small business.

the who and the cdc certainly weren't sounding any alarms that those sort of actions should be getting ramped. at least not publicly.
and they are the experts. but we're all better experts on fanlax.
it's possible bush and/or obama would've taken more concrete actions earlier.
it's conjecture but even if they had it would've been "too late" if they were listening to experts.
there was a lot of talk about testing today. before today the narrative was that there won't be a ton of it. we'll see what the ultimate scenario is.
at least republicans will jump out there and give businesses and workers a 2nd lifeline beyond the fed and our piggy banks.

[ggait]

the who and the cdc certainly weren't sounding any alarms that those sort of actions should be getting ramped. at least not publicly.
and they are the experts. but we're all better experts on fanlax.
it's possible bush and/or obama would've taken more concrete actions earlier.
it's conjecture but even if they had it would've been "too late" if they were listening to experts.

Of course any of W, Obama, McCain, Romney, Hillary, Pence or Biden would be criticized for being too late. Every after action report says too late.

But I'm 100% confident that not one of them would have acted like this. They may all be the same (TAATS). Trump is different.

He primarily cared about talking up the stock market so he could get re-elected. Period.

The only saving grace is that most people (outside the FNC bubble) and most decision makers know not to listen to Trump.


https://thebulwark.com/warnings-ignored ... -response/

https://thebulwark.com/the-coronavirus- ... ald-trump/

https://thebulwark.com/a-timeline-of-tr ... fing-lies/

[RedFromMI]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

So shutting down the economy is destroying the Healthcare System that we shut down the economy to protect?

Shutting down things is keeping all of us safer - and at the same time keeping the ICUs and other hospital resources needed to fight the coronavirus from being as overwhelmed. That means more of us live, and we don't have as much of a disaster as if we would if we did not have the shutdown. In some places (NY, NJ, MI, LA) bad early reactions led to the systems being overwhelmed. Those places are also nearing/at their peak usage of the particular things needed to treat CV (ICU beds, ventilators, PPE). Other states, mostly from a combination of luck and lower density, as well as a few other things, have not yet seen anywhere close to peak usage. Take a look at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... ca/florida to see how the IMHE model predicts Florida is more than 2 weeks from peak usage.

But hospitals have, because they are treating so many patients with CV-19, become quite dangerous to the other patients who would normally be in the hospital. So "elective" procedures have basically been killed until they become safer places. And that is hurting hospital revenue - so that is why you see layoffs. Those people might work in parts of the hospital system that is close to dead at this time, due to those cancellations.

Just for example - think about how many people visiting patients might eat in a hospital cafeteria/restaurant. No outside people now, because for their own safety they are kept out. Keeps the gift shop closed. And with empty rooms, you might not need as many janitors...

And outside the hospital - nobody is going to the family doctor or dentist unless it is an emergency. My best friends are married dentists. Their practice employs around 10-12 people normally. Now it is 3 max per day, and it is only emergency treatment - no regular checkups. (No one wants to be sitting in a waiting room with other people who might have CV.

So yes - we are hurting portions of our healthcare system.

Yet in NYC, non-Covid patients were not being referred or delivered by first responders directly to the Comfort, which was there precisely to provide that capability & relieve the need for patients to defer non-Covid urgent care.

Because the protocol originally put in place was for all EMTs to send them to another hospital first before the Comfort. You still don't really have the level of coordination you should be having between the feds and the states. And that makes for a lot of wasted time and effort.

[wgdsr]

you being 100% confident doesn't change the vectors.
he has behaved like a jackass thru this period.
the other side of the trade is if he cared about the stock market and economy in lieu of decisions, war gaming this with everyone's now perfect hindsight would've meant diving into prevention the minute there was an alarm is the winner. shorter timelines, etc.

he has been a pompous so and so all along. not a new development.

[Peter Brown]

Regrettably ggait, I have only one publication I refuse to click links to and that is The Bulwark; total frauds, non-conservatives backed by quite liberal money making some cash for themselves selling clicks to liberal audiences.

Anyway, I have been turned onto a remarkable Stanford chemist who has been apparently more right on Coronavirus than anyone, Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli-South African biophysicist and a professor of structural biology at Stanford University. Levitt received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems"

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavir ... eate-says/

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... experience

[jhu72]

Regrettably ggait, I have only one publication I refuse to click links to and that is The Bulwark; total frauds, non-conservatives backed by quite liberal money making some cash for themselves selling clicks to liberal audiences.

Anyway, I have been turned onto a remarkable Stanford chemist who has been apparently more right on Coronavirus than anyone, Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli-South African biophysicist and a professor of structural biology at Stanford University. Levitt received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems"

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavir ... eate-says/

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... experience

Well Trump is going to have a problem with this. Levitt says the published Chinese numbers are correct.

This can't be right.

[old salt]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

So shutting down the economy is destroying the Healthcare System that we shut down the economy to protect?

Shutting down things is keeping all of us safer - and at the same time keeping the ICUs and other hospital resources needed to fight the coronavirus from being as overwhelmed. That means more of us live, and we don't have as much of a disaster as if we would if we did not have the shutdown. In some places (NY, NJ, MI, LA) bad early reactions led to the systems being overwhelmed. Those places are also nearing/at their peak usage of the particular things needed to treat CV (ICU beds, ventilators, PPE). Other states, mostly from a combination of luck and lower density, as well as a few other things, have not yet seen anywhere close to peak usage. Take a look at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... ca/florida to see how the IMHE model predicts Florida is more than 2 weeks from peak usage.

But hospitals have, because they are treating so many patients with CV-19, become quite dangerous to the other patients who would normally be in the hospital. So "elective" procedures have basically been killed until they become safer places. And that is hurting hospital revenue - so that is why you see layoffs. Those people might work in parts of the hospital system that is close to dead at this time, due to those cancellations.

Just for example - think about how many people visiting patients might eat in a hospital cafeteria/restaurant. No outside people now, because for their own safety they are kept out. Keeps the gift shop closed. And with empty rooms, you might not need as many janitors...

And outside the hospital - nobody is going to the family doctor or dentist unless it is an emergency. My best friends are married dentists. Their practice employs around 10-12 people normally. Now it is 3 max per day, and it is only emergency treatment - no regular checkups. (No one wants to be sitting in a waiting room with other people who might have CV.

So yes - we are hurting portions of our healthcare system.

Yet in NYC, non-Covid patients were not being referred or delivered by first responders directly to the Comfort, which was there precisely to provide that capability & relieve the need for patients to defer non-Covid urgent care.

Because the protocol originally put in place was for all EMTs to send them to another hospital first before the Comfort. You still don't really have the level of coordination you should be having between the feds and the states. And that makes for a lot of wasted time and effort.

So why wasn't the protocol revisited asap, rather than politicians & media talking heads whining about it ?
Are the Feds expected to manage the medical response within NYC ?
Who was in charge of the consolidated medical response effort in NYC ? anybody ? the same lady who touted the Chinese New Year's parade ?

[old salt]

you being 100% confident doesn't change the vectors.
he has behaved like a jackass thru this period.
the other side of the trade is if he cared about the stock market and economy in lieu of decisions, war gaming this with everyone's now perfect hindsight would've meant diving into prevention the minute there was an alarm is the winner. shorter timelines, etc.

he has been a pompous so and so all along. not a new development.

Trump's a given. A constant. Rather than accepting that reality & doing what needs to be done, he becomes the automatic excuse for inaction & blame shifting.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Hate to jump a post but this is another excellent documentary.... the is what union busting left in its wake....this is basically a companion piece to American Factory. These are the people that have been disinter-mediated from their prior middle class existence.



First break the unions, then buyout older employed making a decent wage, hire young people to work for 1/2 the wage, then move the jobs to people who will work for 1/4..... then complain about China and get angry.

Too bad Ohio decided to go red after blaming Obama for problems he never created. Hate to say I told you so but ...

It’s an excellent Frontline documentary... the people in Ohio were desperate. They were conned by Trump.

When did the UAW jobs depart Ohio, & the rest of the midwest ?

The decline started in the early 1980s. For the wider industry, a couple years before that. The pace picked up. A chunk of it was poor auto industry management...snookered by Japanese auto. We thought we were outsmarting them....

This is where our wealth was transferred to...some flowed up and some flowed down. We didn’t look out for our own people. We took care of a few at the expense of many. It has only accelerated....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html

Yep. ...& our used '74 Pinto wagon was a better car & better value than our '81 Datsun B210 wagon (with water leaking in & rusting out the rear wheel wells, ...& a second time after warranty repair).

Yes. They learned luxury car technology from us and we thought we were going to take their small car technology from them coming out of the oil crisis. Then Lexus, Acura and Infiniti showed up and we had the Chevette....the rest is history.

[ggait]

Anyway, I have been turned onto a remarkable Stanford chemist who has been apparently more right on Coronavirus than anyone, Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli-South African biophysicist and a professor of structural biology at Stanford University. Levitt received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems"

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavir ... eate-says/

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... experience

Pete -- I looked and couldn't find any actual prediction from Levitt being reported. Just some statements like "it won't kill millions" and "we'll be fine."

Can you tell me what he's actually predicting beyond "not as bad as others are saying?"

For example, is he higher or lower than UW (60k base deaths, low 26k, high 155k)?

[jhu72]

The plan to defeat coronavirus.

[jhu72]

US just broke the 2000 deaths in a single day (GMT -day) mark, for the first time. Probably going to finish over 2100 (or slightly below) for the day. This puts in doubt the idea that we are at a peak (of 1950).

[Peter Brown]

Anyway, I have been turned onto a remarkable Stanford chemist who has been apparently more right on Coronavirus than anyone, Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli-South African biophysicist and a professor of structural biology at Stanford University. Levitt received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems"

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavir ... eate-says/

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... experience

Pete -- I looked and couldn't find any actual prediction from Levitt being reported. Just some statements like "it won't kill millions" and "we'll be fine."

Can you tell me what he's actually predicting beyond "not as bad as others are saying?"

For example, is he higher or lower than UW (60k base deaths, low 26k, high 155k)?

Will try to get tomorrow.

[Peter Brown]

Hey what the hey!!

Preliminary data and anecdotal evidence suggest that fleeing New Yorkers may have hastened the spread of the coronavirus

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyre ... leave.html

“BUT DESANTIS; HOW DARE HE!!!”

Oh also, Florida's peak has now been moved again, to April 26, from April 21. It was originally May 3. Projected deaths now below 4k.

[DocBarrister]

US just broke the 2000 deaths in a single day (GMT -day) mark, for the first time. Probably going to finish over 2100 (or slightly below) for the day. This puts in doubt the idea that we are at a peak (of 1950).

Also the 4th consecutive day with 30,000+ new confirmed cases and 1900+ additional deaths.

Those are mind-numbing numbers, especially in light of the unprecedented mitigation measures.

In contrast, here are the latest numbers from South Korea, which has more reliable data than we do:

27 new confirmed cases, 4 additional deaths.

The disparity between the United States numbers and those of South Korea reflect the scope of the catastrophic failure of leadership in the U.S., not only by Trump, but also Fauci, Cuomo, and the leadership of the CDC and FDA.

We could have been South Korea, and do not let anyone convince you otherwise.

With the current numbers, there is no way we can begin easing back on mitigation efforts before June ... and even June is optimistic.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

you being 100% confident doesn't change the vectors.
he has behaved like a jackass thru this period.
the other side of the trade is if he cared about the stock market and economy in lieu of decisions, war gaming this with everyone's now perfect hindsight would've meant diving into prevention the minute there was an alarm is the winner. shorter timelines, etc.

he has been a pompous so and so all along. not a new development.

Trump's a given. A constant. Rather than accepting that reality & doing what needs to be done, he becomes the automatic excuse for inaction & blame shifting.

Too bad he's POTUS...

[DocBarrister]

The plan to defeat coronavirus.

Testing is front and center in the best management plans. Extremely early testing was key to South Korea’s relative success. South Korea is not anywhere near the leaders in per capita testing, but they didn’t need to be. Each early test is so much more valuable than later tests.

Trump is completely clueless on testing. He bragged about the 2 million tests performed in the U.S. to date. That is not nearly enough.

Because the U.S. failed to test early, we must now institute a massive testing program. It is too late for efficiency like South Korea. Instead, experts have estimated that we should be performing 500,000 to a million tests EACH DAY.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21214218/ ... distancing

In other words, Trump is so clueless that he was bragging about 2 million total tests ... just several days worth of the testing experts say we should be performing.

By the way, I think Fauci’s failure to scream at the top of his lungs about the lack of testing is a colossal failure on his part (ditto with Dr. Birx). Can’t change the fact that Trump is a narcissistic moron. What’s Fauci’s excuse?

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Another poster ridiculed me for thinking favorably about a Stanford model that predicted only 20-40K dead not the prevailing 100-205K.
He's waiting anxiously to rub my nose in it.

It would have been great if that outlier projection by those Stanford docs in the WSJ had worked out. 20-40k deaths with no social distancing.

It sounded too good to be true at the time. Turns out it was. So it is a good thing that no decision maker listened to them (or to you) when making decisions. If we end with 60k with full SD (down from 100-240k) that's a win. But it still means we would have been looking at 10X that with no SD.

It is fine to hope for the best. But you really have to plan for the worst. That's not pessimistic or hysterical or partisan. Just reasonable.

Yup. 60K would be a win, given how bad of a start we got off to.

Let’s not fall into this narrative if we can avoid it.

A death toll of 60,000 should never be viewed as anything other than a catastrophic failure, even considering the nearly two-month delayed response. We should not be on a trajectory even close to that number.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

And second, I agree our healthcare system is a complete mess. a fan hates me for saying so, but we need a two-tiered structure similar to Europe. One, a M4A system, but the trade for that is don't expect JHU Hospital/Mass Gen Hospital levels of care. You get what you get and no one gets to sue. But it also does not cost you a direct penny, other than of course it gets paid for by tax dollars (no such thing as a free lunch).

Then, if people wish to pay for a private system, they have that option too. And by directly paying, you will get much better care. This is how it works in Europe.

https://www.vox.com/health-care/2019/2/ ... is-sanders

What are you talking about? Why would I hate you for saying this?

I agree completely that our healthcare system is a mess. And I would have NO PROBLEM signing up for this hybrid system of yours.....

Must have misunderstood.

That would be a good system, PB, if it were permanently funded. The risk ... just a risk ... is that people who purchase private insurance say to hell with paying taxes for universal coverage. Then you get one level of care that is the best in the world and another that is third world ... and an increasing social divide and resentment because of it. It happens in states where education is set up that way (like Hawaii, where public schools are horrible, but Obama went to an incredible private school). I'll vote for your system if it is funded along the lines of Medicare or social security.

PB’s plan is also a variant of Medicare for All. Many if not most Medicare recipients pay for a supplemental private plan that pays for things that Medicare does not cover.

Did not know that Peter Brown was a Bernie Bro!

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Regrettably ggait, I have only one publication I refuse to click links to and that is The Bulwark; total frauds, non-conservatives backed by quite liberal money making some cash for themselves selling clicks to liberal audiences.

Anyway, I have been turned onto a remarkable Stanford chemist who has been apparently more right on Coronavirus than anyone, Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli-South African biophysicist and a professor of structural biology at Stanford University. Levitt received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems"

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavir ... eate-says/

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... experience

Well Trump is going to have a problem with this. Levitt says the published Chinese numbers are correct.

This can't be right.

Even assuming that the numbers from China represent fraudulent underreporting, we can arbitrarily quadruple or quintuple the numbers reported by China and they would still be better than the data from the United States.

Once again, illustrates the scope of Trump’s colossal failure.

DocBarrister