All things CoronaVirus

[MDlaxfan76]

Let's assume for sake of argument that the 60K total deaths number is correct and that we are at peak. Projecting forward just a few hours, we will end day 43 with a total of 18,600 dead. It will take another 43 days to work that number of deaths down to zero, which gives us a total of 37,200 deaths. At current peak rate of 1950 per day, it will take another 12 days at peak to give us a total of 60K dead. So if we are at the peak, we have another 55 days in isolation / social distancing before it is safe to go back in the water. Doing so before then risks starting a second wave almost immediately. This is an optimistic projection, assuming every state is on the same curve, a national curve which is not the case.

You can do the same kind of analysis for each state or local region and come up with shorter end dates for those areas, but then you would have to stop all travel in and out of those areas until every area was clear. You are going to be well into summer before there is any hope of getting back to something like normal. Then you have to be ready to test test test test, far better than anything we have shown any ability to do.

This ignores for the time being the issue of international travel.

Yet, they are doing a lot of hand waving yet again so as to not directly contradict POTUS.

After all, this enemy is a genius!
Just said that antibiotics don't work on it!
who knew?

[6ftstick]

Oh please
One example: Cuomo Shouts "Trump we need 30,000 ventilators in NY"

Trump says I don't think you need that many. He sends 4000 additional ventilators.

Cuomo Shouts "OK TRUMP you come and pick which 26000 people are going to DIE!!!"

It wasn't as bad as we thought, and the shut down is working.

And yet you're angry about that.

Oh please

Media acrosss the board——Trumps a monster, incompetent, stubborn a murderer.

Everybody on this forum—That idiot Trump If any one supports Trump you're complicit and you have BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS..

Turns out Trump was correct. SO our defene of Trump was a positive decision.

No. Trump was NOT correct. He has made a cr*pton of statements that have proven to be wrong.

So has Cuomo. So has everyone. Why does this surprise you? We don't have all the info. we need, and everyone is doing the best we can.

But your conclusion out of this is that everyone is wrong except Trump.

You're not fooling anyone with this. If Trump had a little D by his name, you'd be tearing him a new one this very day. You're cheering him on because he has an R by his name. There isn't an poster here who doesn't know this.....especially you!

Oh please
Pointing out these glaring inaccuracies with expectations and reality on the ground will make the decisions to open up the economy a little easier.

Yes! How is this bad? Again, you are complaining that what we are doing is working. This makes NO sense, and you know it.

Im not particularly happy being labeled a lug nut complicit in mass murder with blood on my hands.

That my university lowered there standards even more than was thought to allow me to attend.

Another poster ridiculed me for thinking favorably about a Stanford model that predicted only 20-40K dead not the prevailing 100-205K.
He's waiting anxiously to rub my nose in it.

Then I point out that Trump/Cuomo exchange that helped drive all the negatives here and in the media and was on top of my position..

And you say so what.

Ok Im done. Have a nice Easter. Hope more of us survive than most of you think and hope so you can drive Trump out of office.

[6ftstick]

Let's assume for sake of argument that the 60K total deaths number is correct and that we are at peak. Projecting forward just a few hours, we will end day 43 with a total of 18,600 dead. It will take another 43 days to work that number of deaths down to zero, which gives us a total of 37,200 deaths. At current peak rate of 1950 per day, it will take another 12 days at peak to give us a total of 60K dead. So if we are at the peak, we have another 55 days in isolation / social distancing before it is safe to go back in the water. Doing so before then risks starting a second wave almost immediately. This is an optimistic projection, assuming every state is on the same curve, a national curve which is not the case.

You can do the same kind of analysis for each state or local region and come up with shorter end dates for those areas, but then you would have to stop all travel in and out of those areas until every area was clear. You are going to be well into summer before there is any hope of getting back to something like normal. Then you have to be ready to test test test test, far better than anything we have shown any ability to do.

This ignores for the time being the issue of international travel.

Yet, they are doing a lot of hand waving yet again so as to not directly contradict POTUS.

After all, this enemy is a genius!
Just said that antibiotics don't work on it!
who knew?

nearly 50% of those totals were in NY

[RedFromMI]

(stuff omitted)

diblasio kept his schools open until march 15, finally relented under pressure from teachers, parents the governor (a day or 2 earlier). said because of school lunches and day care. he probably would change his actions now.

And at the time I remember the pressure - at least he paid attention to it if late.

my suburban/rural county with almost nothing going at that point had already done that. and suspended sports almost a week earlier.

I think the NBA suspension woke up a lot of people. The college I teach at was on Spring Break and went from back to class as normal on 3/12 to full online by Friday (3/13 evening). First for 3 weeks, and within a week extended to end of school year. And the basic thing that changed minds was our school's athletic conference killing sports for the rest of the season - just as the NCAA had by then killed all postseason events including March Madness.

hindsight is 20/20 and a lot of our posts are not going to age well.
a lot of decisions are not going to age well, on both sides.
that is the nature of pandemics. strategies are oh so much clearer once real data comes in.

Unfortunately there was more data available early on (say by 2/1) than is often admitted. If the federal response would have been ramping up as was intended by the structure Bush (originally) and Obama had set up we would be in so much better shape. But the Donald let Xi snow him as to the actual nature of the threat (and he still cannot see beyond how the crippled economy is screwing up his re-election chances).

do i think we could and should have a ton more effort and money on testing?
i do. maybe that matters, a little or a lot. we do not know yet for sure, and certainly my opinion does not matter.

It (testing) matters hugely to how fast we can ramp things back up. In an economy so heavily based on consumer confidence, if people are not confident in safely going outside, they will just stay home as much as they can. Killer for brick and mortar retail, which includes a lot of small business.

do i think we could/should be pushing possible treatments faster and harder?
i do.
that may or may not age well, but that's the thought on april 10.

in october or 2022 a lot of opinions and decisions will look good or bad. hindsight is 20/20.

[RedFromMI]

I had to ask my wife this question and she does not know the answer either. She works at the hospital now to boot. Outside of the carter st entrance to Rochester General Hospital, which is where the employee entrance to the parking ramp is they erected a tent city that would have made Barnum and Bailey green with envy. When i asked her why? She had no idea. Her biggest complaint is her floor has run out of bleach wipes for the patients rooms. So when a patients dumps all over themselves and the floor they have to walk halfway around the floor and find the one spray bottle of bleach solution. Maybe they could have used those funds for the circus tents to buy sanitizing wipes and maybe the masks they need so badly. Is it poor planning or just over reacting to a situation they in reality knew nothing about ? They have the damn tents there, why not have a carnival now?

That is good. Actually that is great. But at noon on channel 13 they were thinking the peak was two weeks away. They are preparing for the worst I would think. They were talking to Adam Bello on channel 13 at noon, the county comish, at the convention center (I think that is the name of it) that they are preparing just in case. Strong and RGH have been asked to increase capacity just in case. FFTH has been asked to do the same. Right now the numbers are flat to slightly increasing. This is good news. Prepare for the worst and take flak for over reacting I suppose if it does not materialize.

The peak in Rochester could well be two weeks in the future - most of the broken down statistics are by state, and the IHME modeling is presented state by state, not county by county. Peak for NY state as a whole is already past according to the IHME model, but that is so heavily weighted to NYC.

[RedFromMI]

Health
A plan to defeat coronavirus finally emerges, but it’s not from the White House
In the absence of federal direction, states and America’s top experts forge the path ahead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... -strategy/

Really good article on the mostly state led effort to ramp up the test+contact tracing necessary to keep second/third waves from coming...

[old salt]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

Even in NYC, @ yesterday. 66 patients in 2500 bed Javits Center. 44 patients in 1000 bed USNS Comfort.
Facilities equipped & staffed by US military.

[Bart]

I had to ask my wife this question and she does not know the answer either. She works at the hospital now to boot. Outside of the carter st entrance to Rochester General Hospital, which is where the employee entrance to the parking ramp is they erected a tent city that would have made Barnum and Bailey green with envy. When i asked her why? She had no idea. Her biggest complaint is her floor has run out of bleach wipes for the patients rooms. So when a patients dumps all over themselves and the floor they have to walk halfway around the floor and find the one spray bottle of bleach solution. Maybe they could have used those funds for the circus tents to buy sanitizing wipes and maybe the masks they need so badly. Is it poor planning or just over reacting to a situation they in reality knew nothing about ? They have the damn tents there, why not have a carnival now?

That is good. Actually that is great. But at noon on channel 13 they were thinking the peak was two weeks away. They are preparing for the worst I would think. They were talking to Adam Bello on channel 13 at noon, the county comish, at the convention center (I think that is the name of it) that they are preparing just in case. Strong and RGH have been asked to increase capacity just in case. FFTH has been asked to do the same. Right now the numbers are flat to slightly increasing. This is good news. Prepare for the worst and take flak for over reacting I suppose if it does not materialize.

The peak in Rochester could well be two weeks in the future - most of the broken down statistics are by state, and the IHME modeling is presented state by state, not county by county. Peak for NY state as a whole is already past according to the IHME model, but that is so heavily weighted to NYC.

Agreed. The good news, in relation to the peak, is that we in upstate have been under the same social distancing protocol as downstate since Andy instated it. It is hopeful that our peak will be dealt with efficiently and everyone can complain about putting all the infrastructure in place for nothing.

[Bart]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

Even in NYC, @ yesterday. 66 patients in 2500 bed Javits Center. 44 patients in 1000 bed USNS Comfort.
Facilities equipped & staffed by US military.

Isn't that a good thing? Social distancing working?

[old salt]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

So shutting down the economy is destroying the Healthcare System that we shut down the economy to protect?

Shutting down things is keeping all of us safer - and at the same time keeping the ICUs and other hospital resources needed to fight the coronavirus from being as overwhelmed. That means more of us live, and we don't have as much of a disaster as if we would if we did not have the shutdown. In some places (NY, NJ, MI, LA) bad early reactions led to the systems being overwhelmed. Those places are also nearing/at their peak usage of the particular things needed to treat CV (ICU beds, ventilators, PPE). Other states, mostly from a combination of luck and lower density, as well as a few other things, have not yet seen anywhere close to peak usage. Take a look at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... ca/florida to see how the IMHE model predicts Florida is more than 2 weeks from peak usage.

But hospitals have, because they are treating so many patients with CV-19, become quite dangerous to the other patients who would normally be in the hospital. So "elective" procedures have basically been killed until they become safer places. And that is hurting hospital revenue - so that is why you see layoffs. Those people might work in parts of the hospital system that is close to dead at this time, due to those cancellations.

Just for example - think about how many people visiting patients might eat in a hospital cafeteria/restaurant. No outside people now, because for their own safety they are kept out. Keeps the gift shop closed. And with empty rooms, you might not need as many janitors...

And outside the hospital - nobody is going to the family doctor or dentist unless it is an emergency. My best friends are married dentists. Their practice employs around 10-12 people normally. Now it is 3 max per day, and it is only emergency treatment - no regular checkups. (No one wants to be sitting in a waiting room with other people who might have CV.

So yes - we are hurting portions of our healthcare system.

Yet in NYC, non-Covid patients were not being referred or delivered by first responders directly to the Comfort, which was there precisely to provide that capability & relieve the need for patients to defer non-Covid urgent care.

[ggait]

Another poster ridiculed me for thinking favorably about a Stanford model that predicted only 20-40K dead not the prevailing 100-205K.
He's waiting anxiously to rub my nose in it.

It would have been great if that outlier projection by those Stanford docs in the WSJ had worked out. 20-40k deaths with no social distancing.

It sounded too good to be true at the time. Turns out it was. So it is a good thing that no decision maker listened to them (or to you) when making decisions. If we end with 60k with full SD (down from 100-240k) that's a win. But it still means we would have been looking at 10X that with no SD.

It is fine to hope for the best. But you really have to plan for the worst. That's not pessimistic or hysterical or partisan. Just reasonable.

[MDlaxfan76]

Let's assume for sake of argument that the 60K total deaths number is correct and that we are at peak. Projecting forward just a few hours, we will end day 43 with a total of 18,600 dead. It will take another 43 days to work that number of deaths down to zero, which gives us a total of 37,200 deaths. At current peak rate of 1950 per day, it will take another 12 days at peak to give us a total of 60K dead. So if we are at the peak, we have another 55 days in isolation / social distancing before it is safe to go back in the water. Doing so before then risks starting a second wave almost immediately. This is an optimistic projection, assuming every state is on the same curve, a national curve which is not the case.

You can do the same kind of analysis for each state or local region and come up with shorter end dates for those areas, but then you would have to stop all travel in and out of those areas until every area was clear. You are going to be well into summer before there is any hope of getting back to something like normal. Then you have to be ready to test test test test, far better than anything we have shown any ability to do.

This ignores for the time being the issue of international travel.

Yet, they are doing a lot of hand waving yet again so as to not directly contradict POTUS.

After all, this enemy is a genius!
Just said that antibiotics don't work on it!
who knew?

nearly 50% of those totals were in NY

Yup, so far. This wave.
Americans.

Darn, if only those antibiotics had worked...

[old salt]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

Even in NYC, @ yesterday. 66 patients in 2500 bed Javits Center. 44 patients in 1000 bed USNS Comfort.
Facilities equipped & staffed by US military.

Isn't that a good thing? Social distancing working?

It's also a questionable use of resources. The Comfort was an uplifting morale factor, but given it's bungled utilization, it's med staff & supplies might have been of greater utility in military field hospitals ashore, in NYC or elsewhere.

[MDlaxfan76]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

So shutting down the economy is destroying the Healthcare System that we shut down the economy to protect?

Shutting down things is keeping all of us safer - and at the same time keeping the ICUs and other hospital resources needed to fight the coronavirus from being as overwhelmed. That means more of us live, and we don't have as much of a disaster as if we would if we did not have the shutdown. In some places (NY, NJ, MI, LA) bad early reactions led to the systems being overwhelmed. Those places are also nearing/at their peak usage of the particular things needed to treat CV (ICU beds, ventilators, PPE). Other states, mostly from a combination of luck and lower density, as well as a few other things, have not yet seen anywhere close to peak usage. Take a look at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... ca/florida to see how the IMHE model predicts Florida is more than 2 weeks from peak usage.

But hospitals have, because they are treating so many patients with CV-19, become quite dangerous to the other patients who would normally be in the hospital. So "elective" procedures have basically been killed until they become safer places. And that is hurting hospital revenue - so that is why you see layoffs. Those people might work in parts of the hospital system that is close to dead at this time, due to those cancellations.

Just for example - think about how many people visiting patients might eat in a hospital cafeteria/restaurant. No outside people now, because for their own safety they are kept out. Keeps the gift shop closed. And with empty rooms, you might not need as many janitors...

And outside the hospital - nobody is going to the family doctor or dentist unless it is an emergency. My best friends are married dentists. Their practice employs around 10-12 people normally. Now it is 3 max per day, and it is only emergency treatment - no regular checkups. (No one wants to be sitting in a waiting room with other people who might have CV.

So yes - we are hurting portions of our healthcare system.

Yet in NYC, non-Covid patients were not being referred or delivered by first responders directly to the Comfort, which was there precisely to provide that capability & relieve the need for patients to defer non-Covid urgent care.

come on Salty, you already know why they weren't able to get non-coved patients aboard the Comfort...they couldn't meet the certification standards necessary under the Navy's requirements of assurance of No-Covid infection. They needed to be tested first and the first responders had no such capacity.

It was a fundamental error to think you could actually avoid Covid-19 from getting aboard. Tock them a bit to realize that error (if I recall correctly that was either Diblasio or Cuomo's error, though maybe the Navy too) but they then reversed course.

[Laxgunea]

I had to ask my wife this question and she does not know the answer either. She works at the hospital now to boot. Outside of the carter st entrance to Rochester General Hospital, which is where the employee entrance to the parking ramp is they erected a tent city that would have made Barnum and Bailey green with envy. When i asked her why? She had no idea. Her biggest complaint is her floor has run out of bleach wipes for the patients rooms. So when a patients dumps all over themselves and the floor they have to walk halfway around the floor and find the one spray bottle of bleach solution. Maybe they could have used those funds for the circus tents to buy sanitizing wipes and maybe the masks they need so badly. Is it poor planning or just over reacting to a situation they in reality knew nothing about ? They have the damn tents there, why not have a carnival now?

That is good. Actually that is great. But at noon on channel 13 they were thinking the peak was two weeks away. They are preparing for the worst I would think. They were talking to Adam Bello on channel 13 at noon, the county comish, at the convention center (I think that is the name of it) that they are preparing just in case. Strong and RGH have been asked to increase capacity just in case. FFTH has been asked to do the same. Right now the numbers are flat to slightly increasing. This is good news. Prepare for the worst and take flak for over reacting I suppose if it does not materialize.

The peak in Rochester could well be two weeks in the future - most of the broken down statistics are by state, and the IHME modeling is presented state by state, not county by county. Peak for NY state as a whole is already past according to the IHME model, but that is so heavily weighted to NYC.

I may have missed something, but my guess (sheer conjecture) is that the tents are for drive through testing. At least, my buddy who is a dr. in Geneva tells me they have a three tent set up in Clifton for that.

[Bart]

Yes. All the hospital work was pushed out. People are following instructions, and staying home. Result? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Why in the heck are you complaining about this outcome? You should be thrilled.

Jeezus you can be obtuse.

Those rooms were supposed to be filled and overrun.

Save for NY and a handful of places—some haven't had a patient in them

Even in NYC, @ yesterday. 66 patients in 2500 bed Javits Center. 44 patients in 1000 bed USNS Comfort.
Facilities equipped & staffed by US military.

Isn't that a good thing? Social distancing working?

It's also a questionable use of resources. The Comfort was an uplifting morale factor, but given it's bungled utilization, it's med staff & supplies might have been of greater utility in military field hospitals ashore, in NYC or elsewhere.

Perhaps you are right. It is questionable right now but at the time?

[a fan]

Im not particularly happy being labeled a lug nut complicit in mass murder with blood on my hands.

That my university lowered there standards even more than was thought to allow me to attend.

Another poster ridiculed me for thinking favorably about a Stanford model that predicted only 20-40K dead not the prevailing 100-205K.
He's waiting anxiously to rub my nose in it.

Then I point out that Trump/Cuomo exchange that helped drive all the negatives here and in the media and was on top of my position..

And you say so what.

I never said "so what" to any of that. And I most certainly didn't call you any of those names. And you know full well I can't stand DocB, just like you.

All I did was address your comments that the hospitals were empty. I stand by those comments, and don't understand why you are not happy that this is the case.

I'd be delighted if people addressed ideas and not make ad hominem attacks, but I'm not in charge here!

Ok Im done. Have a nice Easter. Hope more of us survive than most of you think and hope so you can drive Trump out of office.

Happy Easter to you and your fam!

And stop with the "you hope people die" stuff. You know doggone well you were pulling that stuff when Obama was in charge, and gleefully reporting, for example, how bad things were in the Middle East, and blaming every last bit of it on Obama. You blamed him for EVERYTHING, and posters like me have a way of remembering this behavior.

Now that the shoe is on the other foot, and we have a Republican President facing nonstop criticism, you are upset. My advice is to remember how you feel about all the nonstop Trump criticism when you do the exact same "the sky is falling" routine when our President has a D by his name.

[jhu72]

Another poster ridiculed me for thinking favorably about a Stanford model that predicted only 20-40K dead not the prevailing 100-205K.
He's waiting anxiously to rub my nose in it.

It would have been great if that outlier projection by those Stanford docs in the WSJ had worked out. 20-40k deaths with no social distancing.

It sounded too good to be true at the time. Turns out it was. So it is a good thing that no decision maker listened to them (or to you) when making decisions. If we end with 60k with full SD (down from 100-240k) that's a win. But it still means we would have been looking at 10X that with no SD.

It is fine to hope for the best. But you really have to plan for the worst. That's not pessimistic or hysterical or partisan. Just reasonable.

Yup. 60K would be a win, given how bad of a start we got off to.

[Laxgunea]

And second, I agree our healthcare system is a complete mess. a fan hates me for saying so, but we need a two-tiered structure similar to Europe. One, a M4A system, but the trade for that is don't expect JHU Hospital/Mass Gen Hospital levels of care. You get what you get and no one gets to sue. But it also does not cost you a direct penny, other than of course it gets paid for by tax dollars (no such thing as a free lunch).

Then, if people wish to pay for a private system, they have that option too. And by directly paying, you will get much better care. This is how it works in Europe.

https://www.vox.com/health-care/2019/2/ ... is-sanders

What are you talking about? Why would I hate you for saying this?

I agree completely that our healthcare system is a mess. And I would have NO PROBLEM signing up for this hybrid system of yours.....

Must have misunderstood.

That would be a good system, PB, if it were permanently funded. The risk ... just a risk ... is that people who purchase private insurance say to hell with paying taxes for universal coverage. Then you get one level of care that is the best in the world and another that is third world ... and an increasing social divide and resentment because of it. It happens in states where education is set up that way (like Hawaii, where public schools are horrible, but Obama went to an incredible private school). I'll vote for your system if it is funded along the lines of Medicare or social security.

[old salt]

Hate to jump a post but this is another excellent documentary.... the is what union busting left in its wake....this is basically a companion piece to American Factory. These are the people that have been disinter-mediated from their prior middle class existence.



First break the unions, then buyout older employed making a decent wage, hire young people to work for 1/2 the wage, then move the jobs to people who will work for 1/4..... then complain about China and get angry.

Too bad Ohio decided to go red after blaming Obama for problems he never created. Hate to say I told you so but ...

It’s an excellent Frontline documentary... the people in Ohio were desperate. They were conned by Trump.

When did the UAW jobs depart Ohio, & the rest of the midwest ?

The decline started in the early 1980s. For the wider industry, a couple years before that. The pace picked up. A chunk of it was poor auto industry management...snookered by Japanese auto. We thought we were outsmarting them....

This is where our wealth was transferred to...some flowed up and some flowed down. We didn’t look out for our own people. We took care of a few at the expense of many. It has only accelerated....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html

Yep. ...& our used '74 Pinto wagon was a better car & better value than our '81 Datsun B210 wagon (with water leaking in & rusting out the rear wheel wells, ...& a second time after warranty repair).