All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

Hey, I'm sorry to post positive news for the hysterical TDS'ers littering this board, but sanity calls for sane minds to share good news:

the R0 naught appears to be substantially higher than previously indicated. If true, this implies much wider infection and asymptomatic rate which increases probability of herd immunity and lowers risk of reopening of the global economy.



R0.jpg


Back to work!!!!

Damn, he claims R0 is bigger than anyone has to date. Means lots of untested, unreported infections. Totally believable. DOESN'T SAY SQUAT ABOUT HOW DEADLY THE DISEASE IS! Stick to washing airplanes.

The IMHE model used by the CDC and Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci estimate the total US coronavirus deaths to be 81,766 by August 4th.
And 81,000 by May 21st.

The actual number of US deaths due to coronavirus on Monday was: 10,068 deaths.
The estimated IHME model number of deaths by Monday was: 12,539 (range of 11,256 – 14,281)

The IHME numbers are already off by 20%!

On Wednesday (today)— 3 days later — they updated their predictions AGAIN!
The latest IHME predictions call for 60,000 deaths by August.

No more deadly than the FN FLU.

… and how many if we reacted to COVID the same way we do FLU? We don't social distance for FLU. We don't wear facemasks in public for the FLU. So your contention is, none of this matters. Let COVID run free, run wild. Gotcha.

Last week you were telling us total deaths would be under 20K, are you now saying 60K?? Or you just don't know, but it won't be as bad as the FLU??

[runrussellrun]

Six -- honest question.

What should the U.S. have done differently on this? And what would the impact of that been?

I don't understand what your alternative would have been.

Do nothing and hope for herd immunity?

SD lite (like what Sweden is doing)?

Something else?

Are YOU billing hours this week? exactly.


The U.S. should have followed ALL of those recommendations in matnums 69 page report. Which one is your favorite recommendation, ggait?

People die. Get over it. Water in Flint, Michigan potable yet? exactly.

Open the country, this is pathetic.

What is France’s excuse? Rachel Maddow?

Herd, lemmings.........do YOU actually believe in Jesus? What's YOUR excuse? Rachel Maddow?

[Typical Lax Dad]

While Trump and his supporters prove their complete and utter stupidity each and every day (including on this forum), a voice of sanity from the wilderness:

Washington (CNN) Former President Barack Obama on Wednesday said it would not be feasible to relax current measures to combat the spread of coronavirus without a "robust system of testing and monitoring — something we have yet to put in place nationwide."

The tweet presents a notable contrast in tone compared to the views of President Donald Trump, who on Wednesday morning tweeted that the country's economy must reopen "sooner rather than later" and that the pandemic "must be quickly forgotten" for those who haven't lost a loved one.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

President Obama is basically saying, “Look morons, you need to put a vigorous and comprehensive testing system in place, like the South Koreans did, before you can safely open up the economy. Dumba$$es,” but in his usual nice way.

DocBarrister

MANdotory testing. Have to wear an armband to PROVE you have been tested.

Oh.....MANdotory vaccine. You want to WORK, you have to have the v-19 vaccine. (except, of course, illegals )

When are you throwing a COVID-19 Party?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Six -- honest question.

What should the U.S. have done differently on this? And what would the impact of that been?

I don't understand what your alternative would have been.

Do nothing and hope for herd immunity?

SD lite (like what Sweden is doing)?

Something else?

Are YOU billing hours this week? exactly.


The U.S. should have followed ALL of those recommendations in matnums 69 page report. Which one is your favorite recommendation, ggait?

People die. Get over it. Water in Flint, Michigan potable yet? exactly.

Open the country, this is pathetic.

What is France’s excuse? Rachel Maddow?

Herd, lemmings.........do YOU actually believe in Jesus? What's YOUR excuse? Rachel Maddow?

Yes

[6ftstick]

Hey, I'm sorry to post positive news for the hysterical TDS'ers littering this board, but sanity calls for sane minds to share good news:

the R0 naught appears to be substantially higher than previously indicated. If true, this implies much wider infection and asymptomatic rate which increases probability of herd immunity and lowers risk of reopening of the global economy.



R0.jpg


Back to work!!!!

Damn, he claims R0 is bigger than anyone has to date. Means lots of untested, unreported infections. Totally believable. DOESN'T SAY SQUAT ABOUT HOW DEADLY THE DISEASE IS! Stick to washing airplanes.

The IMHE model used by the CDC and Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci estimate the total US coronavirus deaths to be 81,766 by August 4th.
And 81,000 by May 21st.

The actual number of US deaths due to coronavirus on Monday was: 10,068 deaths.
The estimated IHME model number of deaths by Monday was: 12,539 (range of 11,256 – 14,281)

The IHME numbers are already off by 20%!

On Wednesday (today)— 3 days later — they updated their predictions AGAIN!
The latest IHME predictions call for 60,000 deaths by August.

No more deadly than the FN FLU.

Last week you were telling us total deaths would be under 20K, are you now saying 60K?? Or you just don't know, but it won't be as bad as the FLU??

Prove it.

[ggait]

Pete, Six, RRR -- I'm not personally interested in the partisan ax grinding. I didn't need Covid to make me dislike Trump.

So again, what should we be doing differently?

Keep doing the full SD until 5/31 but just not trash Trump?

SD lite a la Sweden?

Fully re-open the country today?

What does "Back to work!!" mean?

RRR -- 2.8 million people die in the U.S. every year. So adding an incremental 2.2 million seems like a material variance, no?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Pete, Six, RRR -- I'm not personally interested in the partisan ax grinding. I didn't need Covid to make me dislike Trump.

So again, what should we be doing differently?

Keep doing the full SD until 5/31 but just not trash Trump?

SD lite a la Sweden?

Fully re-open the country today?

What does "Back to work!!" mean?

RRR -- 2.8 million people die in the U.S. every year. So adding an incremental 2.2 million seems like a material variance, no?

https://blogs.iadb.org/efectividad-desa ... caribbean/

These people practicing social distancing are all stupid.

[jhu72]

Anyone know where Bill Ackman got his molecular biology PhD?

Trump University?

It’s in Ackman’s financial interest to get peasants back to work as soon as possible. He took his number from a quack tripe site on twitter.

Gee, never occurred to me.

[foreverlax]

Doctor says, If you don't lose weight and fast, you're going to die of a heart attack. 6 foot says, Sounds exaggerated to me. Overweight guys turns vegetarian, exercises regularly, and lives to a ripe, old age. 6 foot says, I told you the doctor was exaggerating.

6 foot, that doesn't make sense.

2+2=orange...for some.

[RedFromMI]

No more deadly than the FN FLU.

You sound disappointed.

Jeezus.

I've been saying all along the predictions of armageddon were hyperbolic—check all my posts.

One of you folks in the liberal clown car is actually prepared to rub my nose in my lower expectations of death. Think its ggait

Just amazing how you people think twist and spin.

The actual death numbers will be substantially higher - because of unreported cases. Can be estimated after the fact to a good measure by looking at the total death rate vs normal numbers for that place and time of year.

This effect has already been noted and partial estimates are available for Spain and Italy for example. Real toll will be quite a bit higher than the "official" count which for now is only those cases where CV has been detected/measured.

Italy's National Institute of Health found that 99% of people who died from COVID-19 had at least one preexisting condition.

Dr Birx said in yesterdays press conference that ALL coronavirus deaths are counted as "OF" coronavirus" not "with" coronavirus

I guess it is a six of one half dozen of another situation - did the comorbidity cause the death of a person with coronavirus or the the cv cause the death of someone in less than perfect health. Since this cv is new, I have no problem with her classification. It best shows the true impact of the virus.

[ggait]

Last week you were telling us total deaths would be under 20K, are you now saying 60K?? Or you just don't know, but it won't be as bad as the FLU??

Prove it.

6ftstick wrote: ↑
Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:37 am
Media has begun the COVER YOUR rump phase.

Could all this misery have been avoided.

What?
On Tuesday, professors of medicine at Stanford University, Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya, released statistical data that shows the estimated death rates of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, are likely “orders of magnitude too high.”Models that have been used by government officials project that million of Americans, 2.2-4 million, will perish from COVID-19 if no precautions are taken, peaking in June. But after looking at data samples from places like Wuhan, China, where the virus originated, hard-hit northeast Italy, Iceland, and the United States, our nation may be looking at a .01 death rate, which is a ten-fold lower death rate than that of the flu and equating to some 20,000-40,000 deaths total, the study found.

Since I don't have a WSJ subscription, I haven't seen the Stanford docs oped directly. But this seems to imply 20-40k deaths with no SD. That's def not happening.

If they were saying 20-40k with full SD, then they were fairly consistent with the other projections.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Anyone know where Bill Ackman got his molecular biology PhD?

Trump University?

It’s in Ackman’s financial interest to get peasants back to work as soon as possible. He took his number from a quack tripe site on twitter.

Gee, never occurred to me.

Get ‘em back in the fields. We need to harvest...

[Peter Brown]

Pete, Six, RRR -- I'm not personally interested in the partisan ax grinding. I didn't need Covid to make me dislike Trump.

So again, what should we be doing differently?

Keep doing the full SD until 5/31 but just not trash Trump?

SD lite a la Sweden?

Fully re-open the country today?

What does "Back to work!!" mean?

RRR -- 2.8 million people die in the U.S. every year. So adding an incremental 2.2 million seems like a material variance, no?

I'll offer a few ideas.

Ramp up production of the Abbott 5-minute test kit, get other factories to make it, get these into designated city and town zones overnight, make all tests free, test everyone. With no valid test, you do not get to do anything: flights, work, church, etc... Walk around with an app on your phone or a piece of paper with a valid test result.

Let anyone 60 and under with no underlying compromised system go back to work, with a test that says 'clean'. If over 60, wait one more month.

After May 31, anyone over 60 can rejoin civilization with a clear test.

Anyone who tests 'clean' still needs to test once per month until a vaccine is sanctioned.

[6ftstick]

Prove it.

6ftstick wrote: ↑
Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:37 am
Media has begun the COVER YOUR rump phase.

Could all this misery have been avoided.

What?
On Tuesday, professors of medicine at Stanford University, Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya, released statistical data that shows the estimated death rates of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, are likely “orders of magnitude too high.”Models that have been used by government officials project that million of Americans, 2.2-4 million, will perish from COVID-19 if no precautions are taken, peaking in June. But after looking at data samples from places like Wuhan, China, where the virus originated, hard-hit northeast Italy, Iceland, and the United States, our nation may be looking at a .01 death rate, which is a ten-fold lower death rate than that of the flu and equating to some 20,000-40,000 deaths total, the study found.

Since I don't have a WSJ subscription, I haven't seen the Stanford docs oped directly. But this seems to imply 20-40k deaths with no SD. That's def not happening.

If they were saying 20-40k with full SD, then they were fairly consistent with the other projections.

And they may be closer than the latest 60K estimate. at the time the official estimate was up to 200K.

Good news if they're correct. Which was the point of my post.

Again. I'm on the side predicting less death. You're on the other side

[foreverlax]

The egg on your face belies the truth.....it was NEVER a pandemic......the LACK of deaths will prove me write.

How wrong can you be??

A pandemic is a global outbreak of disease. Pandemics happen when a new virus emerges to infect people and can spread between people sustainably. Because there is little to no pre-existing immunity against the new virus, it spreads worldwide.

[jhu72]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

The first real indicator that we're turning the corner on the pandemic.

Docs starting too bleat about the Recovery and how terrible Trump will handle that

Another clear example is the NY Times claiming coronavirus deaths are being "UNDERREPORTED"

They already know the statistics won't bear out the panic and economic destruction they've caused.

So how many deaths will it take for you to realize this is not a "democrat hoax"??

This is the GO TO question for the PRETENDS. If this "new" (how did Event 201 actually call it V-19 ? truth....stranger than ) virus, with NO vaccine at all,

I say, WHO cares how many die. You don't respect most posters here, what makes you think you would care if they died? You belong to the sicko world (nytimes) that hires jerks that cheer on the death count at a "country " music concert, b/c it takes out the "deplorables" Just preverse. That is what I think of you. The real low dweller.

The egg on your face belies the truth.....it was NEVER a pandemic......the LACK of deaths will prove me write.

How many dead will it take for you to blame.....???????????????

… so how are you enjoying the "democrat hoax"? Is it good for you??

[Typical Lax Dad]

The egg on your face belies the truth.....it was NEVER a pandemic......the LACK of deaths will prove me write.

How wrong can you be??

A pandemic is a global outbreak of disease. Pandemics happen when a new virus emerges to infect people and can spread between people sustainably. Because there is little to no pre-existing immunity against the new virus, it spreads worldwide.

The world is wrong. This hasn’t spread and people have immunity.

[RedFromMI]

Dr. Birx Warns Of ‘Very Acute’ Second COVID-19 Wave If People Stop Social Distancing

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/birx ... distancing

Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the leading health professionals on the White House Anti-Coronavirus Task Force, urged Americans to stick to the 30-day social distancing guidelines on Wednesday even as the COVID-19 outbreak curve begins to flatten.

The doctor told NBC “Today Show” host Savannah Guthrie that public health officials were seeing encouraging signs of the viral spread slowing down as a result of social distancing. Do you remember which commericials were run during these segments? Drugs, perhaps.

Birx warned that Americans ought not to get complacent, however.

“What’s really important is that people don’t turn these early signs of hope into releasing from the 30 days to stop the spread,” the doctor said. “It’s really critical, and you can see the delay.”

“So if people start going out again and socially interacting, we could see a very acute second wave very early,” she continued.

social engineering.....forest, for the trees. Suddenly, someone in the tRump admin is too be listened too......when it fits YOUR narrative. (whatever, that may be )

My narrative is based in science - I am a trained physicist. But my late wife had a degree in health education, and my daughter is not only a practicing physician (dealing with COVID-19 patients as we post) but has a masters degree in public health. So I have been exposed to a lot of the science around health...

And as far as Birx - I think she has been often too optimistic about the near future - especially early on when Trump was frankly listening to the wrong people (which he still does too much of - think Fox opinion hosts). But I also understand she has to work with him or get canned.

[jhu72]

Hey, I'm sorry to post positive news for the hysterical TDS'ers littering this board, but sanity calls for sane minds to share good news:

the R0 naught appears to be substantially higher than previously indicated. If true, this implies much wider infection and asymptomatic rate which increases probability of herd immunity and lowers risk of reopening of the global economy.



R0.jpg


Back to work!!!!

Damn, he claims R0 is bigger than anyone has to date. Means lots of untested, unreported infections. Totally believable. DOESN'T SAY SQUAT ABOUT HOW DEADLY THE DISEASE IS! Stick to washing airplanes.

The IMHE model used by the CDC and Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci estimate the total US coronavirus deaths to be 81,766 by August 4th.
And 81,000 by May 21st.

The actual number of US deaths due to coronavirus on Monday was: 10,068 deaths.
The estimated IHME model number of deaths by Monday was: 12,539 (range of 11,256 – 14,281)

The IHME numbers are already off by 20%!

On Wednesday (today)— 3 days later — they updated their predictions AGAIN!
The latest IHME predictions call for 60,000 deaths by August.

No more deadly than the FN FLU.

Last week you were telling us total deaths would be under 20K, are you now saying 60K?? Or you just don't know, but it won't be as bad as the FLU??

Prove it.

It's your point. Or is this your typical post - NO POINT?

[ggait]

Pete -- I think almost everyone agrees with all that. I think that is exactly what will happen.

We can go back to work when we are able to widely deploy new/additional tools.

But until we have those tools, you are stuck with keeping up the full SD.

So it seems like the main point of differentiation is whether you hate on Trump or not?