All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[Laxgunea]

Still been following differences in Argentina, with strict lockdown, and Brazil, where Bolsonaro has downplayed risks. Argentina cases at 1700 with 60 deaths. Brazil at 14000 cases and 600 deaths. First cases about 1 week earlier in Brazil.

[kramerica.inc]

I hate graveyards and old pawn shops.

[njbill]

John Prine’s first review from 1970. A good read.

An excerpt:

“He starts slow. But after a song or two, even the drunks in the room begin to listen to his lyrics. And then he has you.”

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/4/7/2 ... -fifth-peg

[runrussellrun]

20,000 ....or......40,000.....DEATHS. The CDC isn't sure.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Each year CDC estimates the burden of influenza in the U.S. CDC uses modeling to estimate the number of influenza illnesses, medical visits, flu-associated hospitalizations, and flu-associated deaths that occur in the U.S. in a given season. The methods used to calculate these estimates are described on CDC’s webpage,

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/ho ... imates.htm

What methods are used to estimate the number of influenza-associated deaths in the U.S.?
The methods to estimate the annual number of influenza-associated deaths have been described in detail elsewhere (1-2). The model uses a ratio of deaths-to-hospitalizations in order to estimate the total influenza-associated deaths from the estimated number of influenza-associated hospitalizations.

We first look at how many in-hospital deaths were observed in FluSurv-NET. The in-hospital deaths are adjusted for under-detection of influenza using methods similar to those described above for hospitalizations using data on the frequency and sensitivity of influenza testing. Second, because not all deaths related to influenza occur in the hospital, we use death certificate data to estimate how likely deaths are to occur outside the hospital. We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death. We use information on the causes of death from FluSurv-NET to determine the mixture of P&I, R&C, and other coded deaths to include in our investigation of death certificate data. Finally, once we estimate the proportion of influenza-associated deaths that occurred outside of the hospital, we can estimate the deaths-to-hospitalization ratio.

Data needed to estimate influenza-associated deaths may lag for up to two years after the season ends. When this is not yet available for the season being estimated, we adjust based on values observed in prior seasons (e.g., the 2010-2011 season through the 2016-2017 season) and update the estimates when more current data become available.

[runrussellrun]

Why don't we shut down, every winter, due the good ole fashioned, annual FLU ?   Below, the CDC claims that certain numbers die, every season.  Why don't we always social distance?  such fear porn.  THEY told us........THEY....who is "they".   Please call your state reps.  Your mayors.  Your Congress.  This shut down is a social experiment.  It's obvious to those NOT watching the fear porn on the infotainment TV.  

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Conclusion
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This burden was similar to estimated burden during the 2012–2013 influenza season1.

[runrussellrun]

Interesting how CDC uses death counts solely based on a positive for cv19, when there may be other circumstances.

Which goes back to earlier discussions...how can we be certain it is CV 19 that was cause of death?

We can't be.

Of course the statistics won’t be 100% accurate. Death statistics never are. Everybody probably has a personal story where they know the cause of death on a death certificate wasn’t accurate. But it is the information we have. In terms of COVID-19, the death numbers could be too high or too low (cause was actually COVID-19 but the patient was never tested). We simply don’t know at this point. Maybe there will be a way to clean up some of the inaccuracies down the road.

I believe a death under count is more likely than a death over count.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/c ... index.html

I believe the bread was levened at the big guys last meal. Any women invited to the meal, or do YOUR gods only involve the males

(see my CDC explanations on how the calculate the numbers above ) Or......you can listen to infotainment (cnn)......how many times in any given day do the lamestream media state: "that's it for time, we have to go...move on, or whatever " ?

[DocBarrister]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

[runrussellrun]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

DOC.....your post is absolute GARBAGE

No link to this "poll", ya know, that actual demographic breakdown of respondents ........garbage.

You getting some of the $2 trillion to "rush" thru so drug trials.....?

[6ftstick]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

The first real indicator that we're turning the corner on the pandemic.

Docs starting too bleat about the Recovery and how terrible Trump will handle that

[wgdsr]

20,000 ....or......40,000.....DEATHS. The CDC isn't sure.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Each year CDC estimates the burden of influenza in the U.S. CDC uses modeling to estimate the number of influenza illnesses, medical visits, flu-associated hospitalizations, and flu-associated deaths that occur in the U.S. in a given season. The methods used to calculate these estimates are described on CDC’s webpage,

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/ho ... imates.htm

What methods are used to estimate the number of influenza-associated deaths in the U.S.?
The methods to estimate the annual number of influenza-associated deaths have been described in detail elsewhere (1-2). The model uses a ratio of deaths-to-hospitalizations in order to estimate the total influenza-associated deaths from the estimated number of influenza-associated hospitalizations.

We first look at how many in-hospital deaths were observed in FluSurv-NET. The in-hospital deaths are adjusted for under-detection of influenza using methods similar to those described above for hospitalizations using data on the frequency and sensitivity of influenza testing. Second, because not all deaths related to influenza occur in the hospital, we use death certificate data to estimate how likely deaths are to occur outside the hospital. We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death. We use information on the causes of death from FluSurv-NET to determine the mixture of P&I, R&C, and other coded deaths to include in our investigation of death certificate data. Finally, once we estimate the proportion of influenza-associated deaths that occurred outside of the hospital, we can estimate the deaths-to-hospitalization ratio.

Data needed to estimate influenza-associated deaths may lag for up to two years after the season ends. When this is not yet available for the season being estimated, we adjust based on values observed in prior seasons (e.g., the 2010-2011 season through the 2016-2017 season) and update the estimates when more current data become available.

that's what we did for swine flu. just tracked hospitalizations. took a guess on numbers dead. didn't test anybody to see if they had it, really.
definitely different nowadays.

[Peter Brown]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

The first real indicator that we're turning the corner on the pandemic.

Docs starting too bleat about the Recovery and how terrible Trump will handle that

Surprised he hasn't added a daily 'racism' charge to how Trump deals with Covid-19, too. Even the New York Times has beaten him to the punch!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opin ... ncing.html

[MDlaxfan76]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

The first real indicator that we're turning the corner on the pandemic.

Docs starting too bleat about the Recovery and how terrible Trump will handle that

Surprised he hasn't added a daily 'racism' charge to how Trump deals with Covid-19, too. Even the New York Times has beaten him to the punch!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opin ... ncing.html

Wisconsin is a good example of actual racism overlapping the virus response.
Trump is "bleating" about how the Wisconsin Party was right...

[Peter Brown]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

The first real indicator that we're turning the corner on the pandemic.

Docs starting too bleat about the Recovery and how terrible Trump will handle that

Surprised he hasn't added a daily 'racism' charge to how Trump deals with Covid-19, too. Even the New York Times has beaten him to the punch!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opin ... ncing.html

Wisconsin is a good example of actual racism overlapping the virus response.
Trump is "bleating" about how the Wisconsin Party was right...

Racism (+fascism?) now = given the right to vote.

Got it!

[Laxgunea]

Why the infatuation with flu comparisons? If you insist on making the comparison, at least recognize that the flu has been around for a long time, and that there is a decent vaccine for it. If you want to make a comparison, imagine the flu had never been seen before, that there was no vaccine, that there were no protocols for treating it, and very little understanding of it. Also imagine that it seems more contagious and more deadly.

[MDlaxfan76]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

The first real indicator that we're turning the corner on the pandemic.

Docs starting too bleat about the Recovery and how terrible Trump will handle that

Surprised he hasn't added a daily 'racism' charge to how Trump deals with Covid-19, too. Even the New York Times has beaten him to the punch!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opin ... ncing.html

Wisconsin is a good example of actual racism overlapping the virus response.
Trump is "bleating" about how the Wisconsin Party was right...

Racism (+fascism?) now = given the right to vote.

Got it!

answered on the other thread.

Listen, I'm only engaging with you PB under the assumption that you actually do care about democracy.

[jhu72]

Why the infatuation with flu comparisons? If you insist on making the comparison, at least recognize that the flu has been around for a long time, and that there is a decent vaccine for it. If you want to make a comparison, imagine the flu had never been seen before, that there was no vaccine, that there were no protocols for treating it, and very little understanding of it. Also imagine that it seems more contagious and more deadly.

+1

[MDlaxfan76]

Tom Friedman was on CNBC this AM, as always interesting and with an ability to present a cohesive thesis. He was arguing for a Biden led 'unity government' announced at convention time, with key figures across parties, lined up for Cabinet positions, etc.

I'll see if it is linkable.

One comment caught my ear, he said that absent such a unity government posture, the aftermath of this crisis will be very, very ugly.

He pointed out that the '08 financial crisis spawned the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street.

He said they will look like knitting circles.

I think that's right.

[CU88]

Why the infatuation with flu comparisons? If you insist on making the comparison, at least recognize that the flu has been around for a long time, and that there is a decent vaccine for it. If you want to make a comparison, imagine the flu had never been seen before, that there was no vaccine, that there were no protocols for treating it, and very little understanding of it. Also imagine that it seems more contagious and more deadly.

+1

+2

So obvious but some people just can't get past it. This time next year we hopefully will have a similar vaccine.

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... n-only-one

No verified, but I heard that the UK cases/deaths surged today...

[6ftstick]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

The first real indicator that we're turning the corner on the pandemic.

Docs starting too bleat about the Recovery and how terrible Trump will handle that

Another clear example is the NY Times claiming coronavirus deaths are being "UNDERREPORTED"

They already know the statistics won't bear out the panic and economic destruction they've caused.

[jhu72]

(CNN)A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS as the nationwide death toll from the virus rose above 12,000.

Eighty percent feel the worst of the outbreak is yet to come, most (55%) feel President Donald Trump could be doing more to fight the outbreak, and 37% say they have grown more concerned about coronavirus in the last few days, far outpacing the 5% who say their fears have eased recently.

... Looking ahead, 60% of Americans say they would feel uncomfortable returning to their regular routines if social distancing guidelines were lifted after April 30.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics ... index.html

That last part is why Trump cannot simply “restart” the economy by lifting restrictions. The pandemic needs to be brought under firm control before the economy recovers. Restoring consumer confidence will take a long time. I don’t believe this recession will suddenly end in the third quarter. We’re likely to be in recession through the end of the year.

DocBarrister

The first real indicator that we're turning the corner on the pandemic.

Docs starting too bleat about the Recovery and how terrible Trump will handle that

Another clear example is the NY Times claiming coronavirus deaths are being "UNDERREPORTED"

They already know the statistics won't bear out the panic and economic destruction they've caused.

So how many deaths will it take for you to realize this is not a "democrat hoax"??