All things CoronaVirus

[seacoaster]

From the Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

"As the coronavirus spreads silently through American cities and towns, people are struggling with questions about the benefits of social-distancing guidelines — especially in places that still have few reported cases.

Is the epidemic here yet? Is staying home and limiting contact with others really worth the trouble?

A new study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin gives an answer: Even counties with just a single reported case have more than 50 percent likelihood that a sustained, undetected outbreak — an epidemic — is already taking place.

“I worry that many local officials are waiting until there is clear evidence of local transmission before taking action,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of biology and statistics at the university. “The message is, we should not wait.”

With no consistent federal policy, local officials have been left on their own to decide when to enact control measures, Most should assume it is already here, she said.

Over all, the study finds, 70 percent of all counties in the United States — making up 94 percent of the country's population — are likely to have epidemics. The study defines an epidemic as an outbreak that grows exponentially instead of fizzling out on its own, eventually infecting a large fraction of the population."

[foreverlax]

Has the national, nay worldwide, shutdown continued........in spite, of here in the USA....we havent' reached Antietams ONE DAY casualties.

....ask again, What the heck does William Gates, aka Bill....know about vaccines? How many chem & bio labs did HE complete in his short attendance on the banks of the dirty water (it STILL is ) and NOT getting a degree...not even close to getting half the credits needed.....Natalie Portman finished. Took lots of spke lee joint classes.

Of course this is tRumps fault . Mostly, the old (rent control) are dying in NYC. Did I mention rent control. tRumps DO have a history with elderly....rent control.

Bill Gates knows a lot about vaccines. If you haven't paid attention, he has invested billions in this area for years. I see him, arguably, the most informed, non-scientist, working in this area.

[ardilla secreta]

Keeping it real. … You don’t need hand sanitizer, toilet paper, and Lysol. You need common sense, a sense of direction, faith, a will to fight, and of course guns!

https://wp-media.patheos.com/blogs/site ... Sehlke.png

[RedFromMI]

(omitted)


The hysterics won't understand that kind of nuance, RRR. The fear hysteria must continue in order to get Joe elected and save RBG's seat! Meanwhile, on planet earth:

https://www.cfr.org/blog/america-safe-place

https://theweek.com/articles/892244/ame ... than-think

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2018 ... ot/9934910

Two articles from February, and one from almost two years ago. Somehow I don't think they capture what is happening now. So not actually relevant to the current discussion.

[Trinity]

Stick a pin in this—Novartis made a large donation to Essential Consultants, Michael Cohen’s slush fund to pay off Trump’s extortionate girl friends.

[runrussellrun]

The United States and Europe produce about 90% of the vaccines doses (at least they did back then) Where.....are the vaccines produced NOW ? for the entire world. Billions of doses were produced worldwide.

Obviously, the U.S. is never going to use billions of doses. In fact, the U.S. never even used the entire supply produced for the U.S. ... didn’t have to. They got things under control fast. Vaccinations began in October 2009 and were pretty much done by April 2010. Again, a little more than 12,400 died from H1N1 between April 2009 and April 2010, less than a mild common flu season. Yet, W.H.O.....and other sources (hopkins) say 140k to 550k DIED....world wide. CDC, your source for swine flue, as pointed out repeateadly, has a very bad stat problem. (is it 20k dead from the FLU...or 40K ? ) Do, DOC....once again YOU are the problem.

Pretty impressive, right? More vaccine than the entire country needed in just four months of production. Where are those impressive people NOW? wasting valuable research time blaming a TV show character?

Another post of yours suggested that they didn’t perform all the tests they could have. You claim just 600k.

I haven’t verified your number, but let’s assume that’s true. We know CDC sent out 1,000 test kits capable of running 1 million tests. They seem to have produced an excess number of test kits. If they didn’t use all the test kits, they did it for one reason ... they developed a vaccine.

Excess test kits and excess vaccine doses ... all available really early.

Impressive, correct? And Obama did it all while helping the nation recover from the Great Recession and giving 20 million more Americans health care insurance. AND.....never shutting down any business. Self quartering nonsense. Survival of the fittest. Unless THAT isn't a thing...anylonger

And you’re telling me Obama wouldn’t have done a better job than Trump in this pandemic. That is complete bull dung.

DocBarrister

DOC

Besides letting your Hopkins people know that they spelled a coaches, and legend, name wrong on the Hopkins website, thanks to yours truly, (it was YOU, write DOC, that let them know Larry's last name was spelled wrong. You can't spell arrogant without..... ) what VALUE or solutions have you provided?

[Peter Brown]

(omitted)


The hysterics won't understand that kind of nuance, RRR. The fear hysteria must continue in order to get Joe elected and save RBG's seat! Meanwhile, on planet earth:

https://www.cfr.org/blog/america-safe-place

https://theweek.com/articles/892244/ame ... than-think

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2018 ... ot/9934910

Two articles from February, and one from almost two years ago. Somehow I don't think they capture what is happening now. So not actually relevant to the current discussion.

Sir Isaac Newton's book Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica was first published in 1687, laying the foundations of classical mechanics. RedfromMI says "ignore!", classical mechanics are too different today.

[runrussellrun]

Has the national, nay worldwide, shutdown continued........in spite, of here in the USA....we havent' reached Antietams ONE DAY casualties.

....ask again, What the heck does William Gates, aka Bill....know about vaccines? How many chem & bio labs did HE complete in his short attendance on the banks of the dirty water (it STILL is ) and NOT getting a degree...not even close to getting half the credits needed.....Natalie Portman finished. Took lots of spke lee joint classes.

Of course this is tRumps fault . Mostly, the old (rent control) are dying in NYC. Did I mention rent control. tRumps DO have a history with elderly....rent control.

Bill Gates knows a lot about vaccines. If you haven't paid attention, he has invested billions in this area for years. I see him, arguably, the most informed, non-scientist, working in this area.

The problem IS.....I have been paying attention. For years. TAATS. (When is the last time YOU read his "charity"s 990? exactly. Giving millions to yourself IS not working in this area. Anyone dead, anywhere, form bill&melinda's vaccine program ? oooppssiee. Only 'brown', uneducated types died. Not many in the giving pledge roster?

https://givingpledge.org/

Harvard, after all, is the HOME to eugenics.

Money? Jesse Pinkman is better in the lab than old Bill.

"......because I knew too much.....does that make me crazy. "

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwvyQZ7KMtU

[Kismet]

The media hid FDR's paralysis his entire Presidency.
Trump would be called a liar for trying to conceal it from the public.
How was FDR's messaging on the internment camps ?

Not just FDR. Literally all presidents lie. Most every, if not every, politician lies. It's just a reality of the industry. With this said, Trump's lying is not like most anything we've seen before. Certainly in my life time. Politicians have had bigger lies. but in terms of how blatant the lies are and how often they're shared, Trump is off the charts.

The "media hid FDR's paralysis"????
BS.

There was NO ONE who didn't know of FDR's physical issue.
The degree of pain he was in, probably not, but absolutely everyone knew he was in a wheel chair.

Show us contemporary media images of FDR in a wheelchair.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-fdr ... ing-2019-4

Some additional information on FDR and his polio from someone who is eminently more qualified to opine than either you or me - historian Geoffrey C Ward. It appears the press did not as actively contribute to the myth as Roosevelt and his handlers did in presenting the President to the public.

"The man who used a wheelchair and couldn’t get to the bathroom on his own “made everyone believe he stood up to greet them,” Mr. Ward said. “He was an absolute magician.”

The modern view “is to see a kind of conspiracy on the part of Franklin Roosevelt to hide the fact that he had this disability from the public,” Mr. Woolner said.

But he added that the public was well aware of his polio; there were fund-raisers every year for research into the disease. What the public didn’t know, he said, “was the extent of his disability,” his ability to put people at ease somehow convincing them that he had overcome it.

Political necessity required an image of strength and health while running for election as the country struggled with the Depression...."

Watch this clip from PBS series "The Roosevelts" and you will note that Ward nearly breaks down after describing Roosevelt's initial situation after contracting polio - Ward, it seems also contracted polio as a child.



You might also get some insight on leadership and how to project a positive image to people in a crisis when you're simultaneously in a personal crisis of your own and scraed sh*tless yourself

Yes, FDR was a flawed person (aren't we all in some ways) but IMHO he ably led the country through two of its greatest crises regardless of his personal shortcomings . Sadly for all of us, none of this applies to the current occupant of the WH.

[youthathletics]

From Twitter and Peter Kolchinsky (Virologist and now manager of a VC firm that invests in biotech firms):

Thanks for this post Red....appreciate you doing all that copying and pasting from his timeline to get it in one spot.

[Trinity]

Giuliani says he spends all day dialing doctors and hospital executives. Among those with whom he's consulted, a controversial New York family doctor and a medical supply executive who was once convicted of extorting the actor Steven Seagal.

[seacoaster]

Has the national, nay worldwide, shutdown continued........in spite, of here in the USA....we havent' reached Antietams ONE DAY casualties.

....ask again, What the heck does William Gates, aka Bill....know about vaccines? How many chem & bio labs did HE complete in his short attendance on the banks of the dirty water (it STILL is ) and NOT getting a degree...not even close to getting half the credits needed.....Natalie Portman finished. Took lots of spke lee joint classes.

Of course this is tRumps fault . Mostly, the old (rent control) are dying in NYC. Did I mention rent control. tRumps DO have a history with elderly....rent control.

Bill Gates knows a lot about vaccines. If you haven't paid attention, he has invested billions in this area for years. I see him, arguably, the most informed, non-scientist, working in this area.

Yeah, agreed forevelax. The guy and his spouse are learners, everyday, and invest in the world's future, everyday. But it's cool to talk about casualties at Antietam in relation to a global viral pandemic.

[RedFromMI]

(omitted)


The hysterics won't understand that kind of nuance, RRR. The fear hysteria must continue in order to get Joe elected and save RBG's seat! Meanwhile, on planet earth:

https://www.cfr.org/blog/america-safe-place

https://theweek.com/articles/892244/ame ... than-think

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2018 ... ot/9934910

Two articles from February, and one from almost two years ago. Somehow I don't think they capture what is happening now. So not actually relevant to the current discussion.

Sir Isaac Newton's book Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica was first published in 1687, laying the foundations of classical mechanics. RedfromMI says "ignore!", classical mechanics are too different today.

His work still is useful. But not as a reference for the current topic.

The articles you post are still useful. But not as a reference for the current topic.

That is my objection. You don't actually seem to care - you just want to throw darts...

[6ftstick]

keep deflecting. folks were pleading for the vaccines and did not get them. cdc director included. no kidding we didnt need billions. you're the one that came up with that.

we did not have what we needed even through the next season. but of course you will never admit that, though it is factual. not your opinion this time. but show me where it says we had billions ready for us by november and did not need or want them.

those test kits? they were sent to 120 us sites and 250 international. how many to each? you have no idea. so your premise there is false also.

it wasn't that the administration didn't care, it was more likely they made a business decision.

calculated the casualties for not going whole hog on testing, shutting down some hot communities temporarily (as some communities/schools did on their own if you read the abstract as i did last week... sound familiar?). figured the soft approach was worth it, played it out.

i'm not passing judgment on that approach. though the who was predicting much bigger problems, we must've had guys playing the opposite hand.

so what's your number on casualties? how many is too many?

You are simply wrong.

I don’t think you have any idea how difficult and challenging it is to mass produce a safe and effective vaccine.

Do you even have an understanding of how complex the quality control protocols are for such biologic products as the H1N1 virus vaccine? I do ... I have reviewed SOPs for biologic products as part of my litigation work. Makes the quality control SOPs for drugs and medical devices look like line drawings by kindergarten students.

They started sending out test kits on May 1, 2009, two weeks after the first U.S. cases were diagnosed in mid-April 2009. Have a problem with that? I don’t.

The FDA approved four vaccines by September 2009, just five months after the H1N1 virus was sequenced. Have a problem with that? I don’t.

They produced and delivered the first doses of the vaccine in the first week of October 2009, within 3 weeks of FDA approval. Have a problem with that? I don’t.

They ran into production problems that reduced their yields of vaccine and didn’t fully fix the issue until November 2009. Have a problem with that? I don’t. The only shocking thing to me is how quickly they were able to identify and fix the issue.

By January 2010, more vaccine was produced than the U.S. ultimately used. Have a problem with that? I don’t.

So what’s the problem?

The global H1N1 pandemic came around. It was effectively and timely handled.

If you want to find an example of a failed pandemic response, look elsewhere. The response to H1N1 in 2009 wasn’t perfect, but it was pretty good.

In contrast, Trump has made just about every mistake a leader can make during a pandemic. Lies, deliberate misinformation, delays, lack of leadership, insufficient communication, poor logistical management, lack of coordinated and comprehensive planning ... textbook mishandling of a pandemic leading to an unprecedented public health catastrophe.

DocBarrister

So well managed

CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States. These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to H1N1.

[runrussellrun]

a bit of what i was looking for over the weekend just found...
https://nypost.com/2020/03/22/coronavir ... t-illness/
march 6th testing for the entire population of vo, who had country's first confirmed case. ~ 90? people were infected already though most asymptomatic.
ackman just referenced as many as 50x greater number than thought previously asymptomatic, then separately referenced study of a california town that informed that opinion. if anyone has time and skills to find that study, i'd appreciate it.
california's numbers have never made any sense to me. i'm not an epidemiologist... still - 8000 people per day to and fro directly from china for months.... the imperial college dr whose group modeled huge herd immunity was intriguing.
how big is this?
i have my own suspicions, there's other data that belie this, but the data we get tracking this virus is so flawed it's almost counterproductive.

"...we need more research dollars.........."

file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/2018%20BMGF%20Form%20990-PF%20For%20Public%20Disclosure.pdf

Lots and lots of FAMILY planning dollars to a "certain" univeristy

More people, ww2 excepting.....died from disease rather than bullets. But, Bill missed his History summary class.

The Spanish war, you know, the one where we were paying a phone tax until the early 2000's (anyone paying attention ?? ) ....something about can openers. Or NOT about them.

take the lead out......why?

exactly

[RedFromMI]

(omitted)

So well managed

CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States. These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to H1N1.

Actually, yes. One, it was not significantly bigger than any flu season (actually on the low side). And it certainly helped we did eventually have a vaccine (which for the flu typically takes 6 months to get ready for production - and because the task is quite similar from year to year approvals are much easier than a normal vaccine because it is essentially a variant of the previous vaccines).

And finally - it did not kill the economy. Hospitals were not overwhelmed, people did not need to practice SD or wear masks...

[MDlaxfan76]

jeez, how about some cheese with all that whine for the lobbyist?

We're all rooting for Esper to rise to the challenge...we need his very best.
But here's been absolutely nothing in his performance since taking the job that lends much confidence that he's not just another political sycophant.

Yeah sure. It's obvious how much you're rooting for him.
Good thing you weren't packing his chute when he was a paratrooper.
He was on active duty for 10 years (including combat in the Gulf War) & 11 more years in the Army Guard & Reserves.
To you he's just a lobbyist.

Drain the swamp.

No, my issue isn't whether he's an experienced, competent fellow (he's certainly more competent than lots of Trump appointees) but that he's a Trump loyalist, which means hiding the truth and "I'm just following orders".

You spent the first two years of Trump's tenure telling us not to worry about Trump because he had such outstanding people at Defense, at DNI, etc.

[Peter Brown]

Bad news.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/busi ... virus.html


(for, cough-cough, some )

[RedFromMI]

a bit of what i was looking for over the weekend just found...
https://nypost.com/2020/03/22/coronavir ... t-illness/
march 6th testing for the entire population of vo, who had country's first confirmed case. ~ 90? people were infected already though most asymptomatic.
ackman just referenced as many as 50x greater number than thought previously asymptomatic, then separately referenced study of a california town that informed that opinion. if anyone has time and skills to find that study, i'd appreciate it.
california's numbers have never made any sense to me. i'm not an epidemiologist... still - 8000 people per day to and fro directly from china for months.... the imperial college dr whose group modeled huge herd immunity was intriguing.
how big is this?
i have my own suspicions, there's other data that belie this, but the data we get tracking this virus is so flawed it's almost counterproductive.

"...we need more research dollars.........."

Absolutely. But many, many more tests. STILL waiting on that promise from Trump when he visited the CDC - everyone who wants to get tested can get a test...

[RedFromMI]

Bad news.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/busi ... virus.html


(for, cough-cough, some )

Only bad news for those strawmen in your mind...

(note that today when I found positive information on the Seattle groups new modeling results I actually called it positive)