All things CoronaVirus

[Typical Lax Dad]

Today according to the CDC

277,205 cases
6,593 deaths

.023% mortality

Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less

At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.

3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days

3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days

3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days

Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.

You and everyone else missed that your math is wrong first and foremost. It's a 2.3% mortality rate from those numbers (6593 deaths / 277,205 cases * 100). 2018-2019 Flu is about 0.096% (34,157 deaths / 35,520,883 cases * 100)

If we had 50,000,000 cases we'd have 1.1 million deaths at a 2.3% or 0.023 death rate (50,000,000 cases * 0.023).

.023 is not to be confused with .023%

[DocBarrister]

The Trump administration received its first formal notification of the outbreak of the coronavirus in China on Jan. 3. Within days, U.S. spy agencies were signaling the seriousness of the threat to Trump by including a warning about the coronavirus — the first of many — in the President’s Daily Brief.

And yet, it took 70 days from that initial notification for Trump to treat the coronavirus not as a distant threat or harmless flu strain well under control, but as a lethal force that had outflanked America’s defenses and was poised to kill tens of thousands of citizens. That more-than-two-month stretch now stands as critical time that was squandered.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... rc404=true

DocBarrister

Are you Dr. Fauci, trying to run for cover from your public comment on January 21? Is that the best thing you can find to still cast blame? Over here Doc....wake up.

I was among the first here to criticize Dr. Fauci. I am very confident that Dr. Fauci will come under heavy criticism when the full story of this pandemic comes out. He cared too much about keeping his position and his seat at Trump’s table rather than speaking the whole truth.

Doesn’t excuse Trump’s moral culpability for what amounts to negligent mass homicide.

DocBarrister

[6ftstick]

Today according to the CDC

277,205 cases
6,593 deaths

.023% mortality

Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less

At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.

3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days

3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days

3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days

Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.

You still do not understand, even after repeated explanations.

Deaths lag behind new cases.

You keep trying to downplay all of this. Are you truly that dense?

Physicians and nurses tend to be a strong-willed group of people. They don’t panic or cry easily.

Do you think physicians and nurses would express near-panic and break down in tears if this were not an overwhelming crisis?

I’m asking you as nicely as I can ... please stop all the stupidity.

DocBarrister

No ones downplaying. Im suggesting its not the armageddon you keep fomenting about so you can bleat about Trump

[MDlaxfan76]

Today according to the CDC

277,205 cases
6,593 deaths

.023% mortality

Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less

The vast majority of those cases are new cases that have not yet run their course to possible death. The proper baseline for deaths is the number of cases 10 days or so back. So the .023% is almost certainly much too low.
For one thing, it's five times lower than the approximately 0.1% for ordinary flu.

CU, you are of course correct about the timing between identification and death, with ~40,000 cases 10 days ago...the rest are all within first 10 days of identification.

But that wasn't 6ft's most egregious error.

He thinks when dividing 6,593 by 277,205 and getting 0.023...that's means .O23%...oops...it means 2.3%....that's a good 20X of the seasonal flu.

Your 0.1% for seasonal flu is correct in an average year.

Of course, it's also likely that there's 2-3X the 277,000 cases actually in existence in the US, so when this all shakes out, we're going to look not unlike the rest of the world in fatality, albeit a differential if a health system collapses ala the challenge in Italy and Spain...and maybe here, let's hope not. We'll likely see higher fatality in less developed countries, but we won't have a very good data as they'll be over run.

[MDlaxfan76]

Today according to the CDC

277,205 cases
6,593 deaths

.023% mortality

Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less

At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.

3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days

3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days

3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days

Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.

You and everyone else missed that your math is wrong first and foremost. It's a 2.3% mortality rate from those numbers (6593 deaths / 277,205 cases * 100). 2018-2019 Flu is about 0.096% (34,157 deaths / 35,520,883 cases * 100)

If we had 50,000,000 cases we'd have 1.1 million deaths at a 2.3% or 0.023 death rate (50,000,000 cases * 0.023).

You beat me to it!

[CU77]

I just assumed 6ft could do basic math … shoulda checked!

[MDlaxfan76]

Today according to the CDC

277,205 cases
6,593 deaths

.023% mortality

Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less

At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.

3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days

3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days

3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days

Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.

You and everyone else missed that your math is wrong first and foremost. It's a 2.3% mortality rate from those numbers (6593 deaths / 277,205 cases * 100). 2018-2019 Flu is about 0.096% (34,157 deaths / 35,520,883 cases * 100)

If we had 50,000,000 cases we'd have 1.1 million deaths at a 2.3% or 0.023 death rate (50,000,000 cases * 0.023).

.023 is not to be confused with .023%

You too; benefit of brevity.

[DocBarrister]

Today according to the CDC

277,205 cases
6,593 deaths

.023% mortality

Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less

At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.

3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days

3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days

3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days

Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.

You still do not understand, even after repeated explanations.

Deaths lag behind new cases.

You keep trying to downplay all of this. Are you truly that dense?

Physicians and nurses tend to be a strong-willed group of people. They don’t panic or cry easily.

Do you think physicians and nurses would express near-panic and break down in tears if this were not an overwhelming crisis?

I’m asking you as nicely as I can ... please stop all the stupidity.

DocBarrister

No ones downplaying. Im suggesting its not the armageddon you keep fomenting about so you can bleat about Trump

This is the greatest crisis since WWII.

You don’t think that’s “armageddon” enough?

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

Today according to the CDC

277,205 cases
6,593 deaths

.023% mortality

Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less

At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.

3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days

3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days

3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days

Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.

You still do not understand, even after repeated explanations.

Deaths lag behind new cases.

You keep trying to downplay all of this. Are you truly that dense?

Physicians and nurses tend to be a strong-willed group of people. They don’t panic or cry easily.

Do you think physicians and nurses would express near-panic and break down in tears if this were not an overwhelming crisis?

I’m asking you as nicely as I can ... please stop all the stupidity.

DocBarrister

No ones downplaying. Im suggesting its not the armageddon you keep fomenting about so you can bleat about Trump

Except you gotta get the 6th grade math correct.

[Farfromgeneva]

Today according to the CDC

277,205 cases
6,593 deaths

.023% mortality

Thats excludes all Americans still untested that may have the disease. So .023 could be much less

At .023% mortality minimum 50 million Americans have to contract the disease to have 100,000 deaths from the virus.

3/22-3/25 cases doubled in 3 days

3/25-3/28 cases doubled in 3 days

3/28-4/2 cases doubled in 5 days

Number of cases today has to double 8 more times to get to 50 million cases.

You and everyone else missed that your math is wrong first and foremost. It's a 2.3% mortality rate from those numbers (6593 deaths / 277,205 cases * 100). 2018-2019 Flu is about 0.096% (34,157 deaths / 35,520,883 cases * 100)

If we had 50,000,000 cases we'd have 1.1 million deaths at a 2.3% or 0.023 death rate (50,000,000 cases * 0.023).

Wondered if that was extrapolating to the whole population or something bc it’s easy as the sun to see that 1% of 277,000 is 2,770 ergo 6,500 couldn’t possibly be 2/100 of 1.00%.

[DocBarrister]

There are still 8 governors refusing to issue statewide stay-in-place orders. All Republicans. They are following the Moron-in-Chief, a Republican, who still refuses to issue a nationwide stay-in-place order.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics ... index.html

I have often called Republicans the Party of Stupid.

Hyperbole or vast understatement?

DocBarrister

[CU88]

Trump on Feb. 10: “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”

Trump today: “There’s going to be a lot of death.”

[DocBarrister]

Trump on Feb. 10: “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”

Trump today: “There’s going to be a lot of death.”

Progress!!!

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Make a cloth mask, then wear it.

https://www.ky3.com/content/news/Surgeo ... 79891.html

DocBarrister

[Farfromgeneva]

There are still 8 governors refusing to issue statewide stay-in-place orders. All Republicans. They are following the Moron-in-Chief, a Republican, who still refuses to issue a nationwide stay-in-place order.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics ... index.html

I have often called Republicans the Party of Stupid.

Hyperbole or vast understatement?

DocBarrister

The CFO of the company my FIL is partner is and my wife works for us playing golf today. Total doughnut, slack jawed Auburn grad whos a glorified controller/accountant in over his head there except they dont have much F,P&A needs. Arrogant too and somehow they have even given him a little equity (less than 1%, small) but it’s guys like this where it’s hard to have much sympathy if he gets sick.

[Typical Lax Dad]

CNN opinion piece:

I can’t believe China let us down. They are good guys:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/opinions ... index.html

You know what Chinese think of Americans? They think little of Americans....a Chinese billionaire that has plants here compares the American worker to a donkey. Believes we are spoiled so we have to be soothed...”A donkey likes to be rubbed in the direction it hair grows”....we don’t like to be made uncomfortable.... these are the people that Trump was supposed to trust. Send 7+ billion of supplies because Xi is a good guy. GMAFB

[Trinity]

“There’s gonna be a lot of death. And we gotta get back to work. The news is fake. Obama gave me broken tests. Everyone snaps-to when I call. Nobody knew.”

Reader’s Digest condensed Trump monologue today. Waiting for the special guests, then the Pence adoration ceremony.

[6ftstick]

Even if the actual number of coronavirus infection cases is double the “official” count of around 80,000, the mortality rate would still be 1,000 times that of “ordinary” flu. That’s pretty frightening.

This epidemic can still be managed, but we’re definitely on the cusp of a global pandemic. If it truly becomes a pandemic, then we’re talking about many thousands of additional deaths and a potential global recession.

DocBarrister

So Doc here's your first post in the thread. February 26th, You don't sound like your hairs on fire. Pretty reasoned. Where were you in January and February screaming Trump was a stumbling idiot.

Were were the democrats and their media amplifier in three debates prior to this withoutt a mention of this disease.

NYs health commissioner had already advised all NewYorkers to come to the Chinese New Year parade to show they were WOKE and not racists.

The Mayor of New Orleans another Democrat had pushed attendance at Mardi Gras.

And Trump had already closed the borders declared a public health emergency and put the coronavirus task force together.

[Trinity]

Mission Accomplished then!

[6ftstick]

Mission Accomplished then!

Thats helpful and snide