All things CoronaVirus

[Typical Lax Dad]

(omitte)
Are you all now going to blame Trump for "LISTENING" to Fauci back on January 21st? Enough of the blame game.



#OrangeManBad

Read the WaPo article I posted. Fauci changed his tune within a couple of weeks:

I did read it, that does not change a darned thing. Fauci SCREWED UP and he is the #1 guy as a medical adviser in this mess.

Pick a lane Red. You all are bashing Trump constantly....some worthy. I proved in the video Facui screwed up...BIGLY, Trump clearly listened to him and counted on the Cornell/NIH directors advice...Trump walks it out AFTER listening to Facui.....and many like you....shoot Trump for it. It's okay to to hate Trump.....but maybe you should come out and say you are ticked at Fauci for advising our President incorrectly.

Fauci, Birx & all the other experts were deceived by China & the WHO who withheld Wuhan access, data & info on person to person transmission.

We have our own scientists that have been raising the alarm for years. Now it’s China’s fault that we have a failure of leadership?

They withheld critical info, access, & data, SPECIFIC to Covid19 which would have allowed US public health officials to accurately determine the degree of person to person transmission of this NEW virius, & plan our response accordingly.

Do you think Fauci might have given different advice on Jan 21, if the Chinese & WHO had not stated on Jan 15 that there was no person to person transmission ?

We would have been better off with more info. We had a failure of leadership. We made some bad decisions. We would have been better prepared. You gave Hillary a harder time over Benghazi.

[a fan]

I think it is a big deal, but messing up so many other people's lives is a big deal too.
As an American, I feel I have a right to freedom and pursuit of happiness.

Certainly people have the right to hide away in their homes but why do the have the right to imprison me and others?

I fully agree messing up people's lives is a big deal, and should not be taken lightly!

But we willingly surrender our freedoms to be a part of this nation. It's part of the deal.

I don't have the right to drive as fast as I want. Or drive on the wrong side of the highway. Or start a bonfire in my yard when neighboring homes are a few yards away. Or open a brothel in my home.


There's several phone books filled with State, Local, and Federal laws. All delineating the thousands of things you can't do without some sort of punishment.

Part of the deal, my friend. This is not the first freedom you have willingly.....and frequently happily.... surrendered to be an American.

American Libertarianism died on June 21st, 1788.

[Cooter]

I think it is a big deal, but messing up so many other people's lives is a big deal too.
As an American, I feel I have a right to freedom and pursuit of happiness.

Certainly people have the right to hide away in their homes but why do the have the right to imprison me and others?

I fully agree messing up people's lives is a big deal, and should not be taken lightly!

But we willingly surrender our freedoms to be a part of this nation. It's part of the deal.

I don't have the right to drive as fast as I want. Or drive on the wrong side of the highway. Or start a bonfire in my yard when neighboring homes are a few yards away. Or open a brothel in my home.


There's several phone books filled with State, Local, and Federal laws. All delineating the thousands of things you can't do without some sort of punishment.

Part of the deal, my friend. This is not the first freedom you have willingly.....and frequently happily.... surrendered to be an American.

American Libertarianism died on June 21st, 1788.

True, but there is a level of freedom we expect to get.

And why is the government hiding those numbers on deaths by age and health?

[a fan]

True, but there is a level of freedom we expect to get.

Well, I don't know what to say to that. Expectations vary, I guess.

And why is the government hiding those numbers on deaths by age and health?

There is NO WAY we are going to get perfect information during this crisis. Think about how many people are staying home in every business.

I posted this elsewhere, but communication is a train wreck. The human infrastructure of American business is AWOL....so communication and data is bound to suffer.

As a distiller, I can't tell you what's happening at liquor stores, for example. I can't get the data I used to get on a daily basis. So we're flying blind.

This communication situation HAS to be far worse in hospitals that are overwhelmed with this virus. Regardless of country.

[CU77]

The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged

From the Oval Office to the CDC, political and institutional failures cascaded through the system and opportunities to mitigate the pandemic were lost.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ysfunction

[Typical Lax Dad]

I think it is a big deal, but messing up so many other people's lives is a big deal too.
As an American, I feel I have a right to freedom and pursuit of happiness.

Certainly people have the right to hide away in their homes but why do the have the right to imprison me and others?

I fully agree messing up people's lives is a big deal, and should not be taken lightly!

But we willingly surrender our freedoms to be a part of this nation. It's part of the deal.

I don't have the right to drive as fast as I want. Or drive on the wrong side of the highway. Or start a bonfire in my yard when neighboring homes are a few yards away. Or open a brothel in my home.


There's several phone books filled with State, Local, and Federal laws. All delineating the thousands of things you can't do without some sort of punishment.

Part of the deal, my friend. This is not the first freedom you have willingly.....and frequently happily.... surrendered to be an American.

American Libertarianism died on June 21st, 1788.

True, but there is a level of freedom we expect to get.

And why is the government hiding those numbers on deaths by age and health?

Which government?

[Cooter]

True, but there is a level of freedom we expect to get.

Well, I don't know what to say to that. Expectations vary, I guess.

And why is the government hiding those numbers on deaths by age and health?

There is NO WAY we are going to get perfect information during this crisis. Think about how many people are staying home in every business.

I am willing to go with imperfect information. Why aren't we getting even that?

[youthathletics]

As a distiller, I can't tell you what's happening at liquor stores, for example. I can't get the data I used to get on a daily basis. So we're flying blind.

This communication situation HAS to be far worse in hospitals that are overwhelmed with this virus. Regardless of country.

Interesting thought. In our line of work, communication between vendors and contractors has darned near stopped......it is sweet friggen bliss. The majority of comms is simply COVID legal jargon. We are essential, and the team is loving life that they are able to far more productive in less time, because there are less interruptions from the office.

I actually would think hospitals are running more smoothly....less middle management to get in the darned way, more accountability among those that actually do the work to do what they love....leave the paperwork for later and tend those that need it.

[a fan]

True, but there is a level of freedom we expect to get.

Well, I don't know what to say to that. Expectations vary, I guess.

And why is the government hiding those numbers on deaths by age and health?

There is NO WAY we are going to get perfect information during this crisis. Think about how many people are staying home in every business.

I am willing to go with imperfect information. Why aren't we getting even that?

Same reason. I don't know what else to tell you. Statisticians and paperwork just isn't going to get done when the people who normally do that are sitting at home.

[Farfromgeneva]

A lot of the people dying are in the 80+ group.
Some might have been really bad off, within a year of dying anyways.

Life in a nursing home ain't too great.

I hope I die off before I get there, and if I made it there having the coronavirus come an wipe me out sooner would be a blessing.

Could always go the route of Maude in the old movie Harold and Maude...

[Cooter]

True, but there is a level of freedom we expect to get.

Well, I don't know what to say to that. Expectations vary, I guess.

And why is the government hiding those numbers on deaths by age and health?

There is NO WAY we are going to get perfect information during this crisis. Think about how many people are staying home in every business.

I am willing to go with imperfect information. Why aren't we getting even that?

Same reason. I don't know what else to tell you. Statisticians and paperwork just isn't going to get done when the people who normally do that are sitting at home.

Health people are working and statisticians could easily handle this data at home with a laptop.
This is the information age - get with it "a fan".

[Farfromgeneva]

I’m probably trekking beyond my mathematical skills but the 160k implies something of a Gaussian bell curve I assume or some other equation to get to the 160k? Is it possible this is very non linear on either side of the peak or is your model attempting to smooth that out? Just curious.

Yes. I am not sure what you mean by non-linear in this context. What is true, is if the disease if left to its own devices, no intervention, the death curve is actually a Poison distribution. Which like a gaussian has the property of the area under the curve, going up and down, the areas are the same (roughly for the Poison). We are trying to change the shape of the curve by flattening at the peak and extending it. That doesn't change the total dead, it only changes the period of time in which those deaths occur.

At the moment I am paying no attention to what happens on the downside. Only the upside. What can change all of this is the human race coming up with cures and treatments while riding the curve. That will change the rule. Until that time, using a gaussian as an approximation is as good as it gets. I am reasonably certain we will not have some miracle treatment or cure in the next 6 months.

Note. What I am doing is not actually plotting the Poison curve. The number of deaths each day. Rather I am plotting the total deaths to "that day". It is steeper and makes it easier to see the turn coming (the first derivative).

Thanks. I have some buddies who are really good at high level linear algebra and discrete math (one from my hood got a NSA sponsored PhD in Math from Hop) but mine ends of 400-500 level statistics/econometrics along with Calc 3 so wondered if you may be doing something more advance than I am familiar with.

Doesn’t flattening the curve improve the probability the “right side”, for lack of a better description, of the curve carries a lower cumulative sum total since it’s pushing out the time horizon for something to change (medical advance so to speak) that can reduce the deaths? Or is this a question to which the response is something like “Donny you’re out of your element! You’re like a child who walks into the middle of a movie!” (I pray you know the reference and if not I need to clue you into one of the ten funniest movies in my lifetime)

[a fan]

Health people are working and statisticians could easily handle this data at home with a laptop.
This is the information age - get with it "a fan".

And who is going to enter this information at the hospitals and send it to the people at home?

I'm telling you, communication is broken, and is not functioning like it was before the crisis.

You should bear this is mind when you hear information from news sources. Just trying to help. If you don't believe me....okay.

Because we are making hundreds of gallons hand sanitizer, we're in direct conversation with Hospital Administrators. And I'm telling you that for the places that have covid patients, all their systems are overwhelmed, and not functioning in a normal way.

[Farfromgeneva]

In a nutshell


jefferson.jpg

Me too.

Jefferson didn't live through Coronavirus. He'd be squirreled away in Monticello in 2020, drinking Madeira and penning long letters.

The problem with your attitude is that if you roam around free, and get the bug.....you're not the only one who'd suffer. I have married neighbors who are a nurse and a firefighter. They feel it's not a matter of if they get this...it's a matter of when. And all of their colleagues are frantically trying to figure out where to sleep so that they can keep the virus out of their homes.

So if you guys seriously think this is just no big deal? Put in a phone call to your hardest hit hospital when this thing peaks, and open up your home to first responders. They'd be grateful, I promise you.

I think it is a big deal, but messing up so many other people's lives is a big deal too.
As an American, I feel I have a right to freedom and pursuit of happiness.

Certainly people have the right to hide away in their homes but why do the have the right to imprison me and others?

This is the classic political debate in a democracy of where does my liberty end and your rights begin. It will never be solved and most of these left/right debates, at least ones with facts and truthful dialogue, are about.

[Farfromgeneva]

Maybe a minor thing but is there any chance hospitals will get their stuff together and the backside and reduce other hospital driven maladies from less than optimal sterilization?

Somewhat specific but thinking of my father who went into a hospital (Piedmont in Atlanta) for a hip replacement and after a long period with ischemia of the stomach where they couldn’t perform the surgery and weight loss he got it, but in recovery picked up a fairly common airborne problem called C-Diff, booted him to rehabs after 4 days which I guess in policy that can never be violated the way the administrators explained it to me there, was in rehabs facility maybe a month, took him to his place, wife and I cleaned every day with bleach based products but one night fell going to bathroom, laid on stomach all night, passed out at my apt when I got to him and brought him to my place and after a week in ICU died of septic shock.

Long story short is I came to learn how common and lethal C-diff is in hospitals (and secondarily rehab facilities but in my dads case they knew he still had the C diff when they kicked him to the rehab place) and how lethal it is. Could this lead to “cleaner” hospitals and a future reduction in maladies that can often originate inside these places?

Maybe possibly some future silver lining?

[RedFromMI]

I’m probably trekking beyond my mathematical skills but the 160k implies something of a Gaussian bell curve I assume or some other equation to get to the 160k? Is it possible this is very non linear on either side of the peak or is your model attempting to smooth that out? Just curious.

Yes. I am not sure what you mean by non-linear in this context. What is true, is if the disease if left to its own devices, no intervention, the death curve is actually a Poison distribution. Which like a gaussian has the property of the area under the curve, going up and down, the areas are the same (roughly for the Poison). We are trying to change the shape of the curve by flattening at the peak and extending it. That doesn't change the total dead, it only changes the period of time in which those deaths occur.

At the moment I am paying no attention to what happens on the downside. Only the upside. What can change all of this is the human race coming up with cures and treatments while riding the curve. That will change the rule. Until that time, using a gaussian as an approximation is as good as it gets. I am reasonably certain we will not have some miracle treatment or cure in the next 6 months.

Note. What I am doing is not actually plotting the Poison curve. The number of deaths each day. Rather I am plotting the total deaths to "that day". It is steeper and makes it easier to see the turn coming (the first derivative).

Thanks. I have some buddies who are really good at high level linear algebra and discrete math (one from my hood got a NSA sponsored PhD in Math from Hop) but mine ends of 400-500 level statistics/econometrics along with Calc 3 so wondered if you may be doing something more advance than I am familiar with.

Doesn’t flattening the curve improve the probability the “right side”, for lack of a better description, of the curve carries a lower cumulative sum total since it’s pushing out the time horizon for something to change (medical advance so to speak) that can reduce the deaths? Or is this a question to which the response is something like “Donny you’re out of your element! You’re like a child who walks into the middle of a movie!” (I pray you know the reference and if not I need to clue you into one of the ten funniest movies in my lifetime)

Flattening the curve in epidemics does indeed lower the numbers in total because you have effectively (social distancing plus whatever) reduced the transmission rate. But since (except for likely those who recover) everyone else who has not gotten the disease is still susceptible, unless you completely kill it via isolation of those who are actively shedding the virus to make it "go away" or you get an effective vaccine - you run the risk of a new up curve (albeit probably not as high because there is now a fraction of the population with immunity).

[Cooter]

A lot of the people dying are in the 80+ group.
Some might have been really bad off, within a year of dying anyways.

Life in a nursing home ain't too great.

I hope I die off before I get there, and if I made it there having the coronavirus come an wipe me out sooner would be a blessing.

Could always go the route of Maude in the old movie Harold and Maude...

I have sometimes have thought that I might need to take matters into my own hand like Maude did.
I guess you need to get prescription sleeping pills somewhere.
Drive out into the country on a nice sunny day, find a nice tree on a hill to sit against and as the sun starts to set - imbibe.
I don't have a sword, but I could duct tape my hatchet to my hand so I would go to Valhalla.

The thought of being on lockdown/shutdown for the next 4 or 5 months makes me feel like I should take that drive soon.

[3rdPersonPlural]

It seems that the pandemic experts agree that, until we have a widely available vaccine this thing will stick around until a critical mass of people have survived the virus and become immune. That critical mass is over 180 million survivors here in the US. At that point we can just let it run its course!

Unless we find a widely available therapy for this virus, the only way to handle a (low but debilitating) percentage of infections that go critical is an ICU bed with a ventilator and full time pro staff. These are in finite supply, so current mitigation measures like social distancing are merely kicking the can down the road, and efforts to install more beds-with-ventilators just allow us to manage a higher through-put of CoVid 19 patients so we can get past this with minimal loss of life.

As we build up our capacity to deal with critical cases, we can loosen activity controls. When we can hospitalize millions of COVID 19 patients simultaneously along with our normal list of very sick people, we can release controls and resume normal economic activity.

To quote the (easy to read) article:https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-h ... 156686a64b

"Nations around the world are staring down a host of terrible options. Business-as-usual means overrun hospitals, and large numbers of preventable deaths. One or two years of suppression measures in wait for a vaccine means a global shutdown......."

Yikes!

[old salt]

(omitte)
Are you all now going to blame Trump for "LISTENING" to Fauci back on January 21st? Enough of the blame game.



#OrangeManBad

Read the WaPo article I posted. Fauci changed his tune within a couple of weeks:

I did read it, that does not change a darned thing. Fauci SCREWED UP and he is the #1 guy as a medical adviser in this mess.

Pick a lane Red. You all are bashing Trump constantly....some worthy. I proved in the video Facui screwed up...BIGLY, Trump clearly listened to him and counted on the Cornell/NIH directors advice...Trump walks it out AFTER listening to Facui.....and many like you....shoot Trump for it. It's okay to to hate Trump.....but maybe you should come out and say you are ticked at Fauci for advising our President incorrectly.

Fauci, Birx & all the other experts were deceived by China & the WHO who withheld Wuhan access, data & info on person to person transmission.

We have our own scientists that have been raising the alarm for years. Now it’s China’s fault that we have a failure of leadership?

They withheld critical info, access, & data, SPECIFIC to Covid19 which would have allowed US public health officials to accurately determine the degree of person to person transmission of this NEW virius, & plan our response accordingly.

Do you think Fauci might have given different advice on Jan 21, if the Chinese & WHO had not stated on Jan 15 that there was no person to person transmission ?

We would have been better off with more info. We had a failure of leadership. We made some bad decisions. We would have been better prepared. You gave Hillary a harder time over Benghazi.

Benghazi ! ...the irrelevant whatabout butthurt that never heals.
Stop apologizing for the authoritarian Chinese Communists. You have no credibility.
Why hold China accountable when you can blame Trump instead.

[AOD]

(omitte)
Are you all now going to blame Trump for "LISTENING" to Fauci back on January 21st? Enough of the blame game.



#OrangeManBad

Read the WaPo article I posted. Fauci changed his tune within a couple of weeks:

I did read it, that does not change a darned thing. Fauci SCREWED UP and he is the #1 guy as a medical adviser in this mess.

Pick a lane Red. You all are bashing Trump constantly....some worthy. I proved in the video Facui screwed up...BIGLY, Trump clearly listened to him and counted on the Cornell/NIH directors advice...Trump walks it out AFTER listening to Facui.....and many like you....shoot Trump for it. It's okay to to hate Trump.....but maybe you should come out and say you are ticked at Fauci for advising our President incorrectly.

Fauci, Birx & all the other experts were deceived by China & the WHO who withheld Wuhan access, data & info on person to person transmission.

The intelligence community wasn't deceived. They've been warning about this since January.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4 ... rus-threat


And yet, our Commander-in-Chief continued to parrot the Chinese Communist party line.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020 ... -pandemic/