All things CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Or more...

If accurate, this report should not surprise anyone who's paying attention re Chicoms.

It shouldn't. But it did indeed surprise most of our leaders.

It's plainly, CLEARLY a surprise to many of our Federal and State leaders who laughed this off, from both parties.

And the entirety of FoxNews. FoxNews trusted that it was no big deal, and pumped its viewers with this notion for weeks.

Remember the wanker who wore the gasmask to Congress? That freaking guy thought it was a joke, and believed China, and ignored Italy.

The security briefings warned early on that China was minimizing the severity of the outbreak and that it had a very high chance of being a global pandemic. The people at the top were properly warned. They failed to act in a timely manner.

there have been dozens of reports, viral and otherwise, that china had millions of infections, 10s of thousands of dead. crematories running 24/7 for months. have been backing out their numbers since the beginning.

We have joined that club - at least one million infections and it will be many millions before it is done. We have had an administration that has been trying to hide / minimize the problem since the beginning as well.

[DocBarrister]

We’re several months into the coronavirus crisis.

Why don’t we have enough testing capacity?

Why don’t we have enough PPEs?

Why don’t we have enough ventilators?

Why don’t we have a national stay-in-place order?

Why don’t we have a federally coordinated equipment purchase and distribution system?

Why hasn’t the military been engaged to coordinate logistics around the country?

Why are more than 1,000 Americans dying each day?

This has been a colossal failure of leadership by Donald Trump, and it will cost tens of thousands of American lives.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Or more...

If accurate, this report should not surprise anyone who's paying attention re Chicoms.

It shouldn't. But it did indeed surprise most of our leaders.

It's plainly, CLEARLY a surprise to many of our Federal and State leaders who laughed this off, from both parties.

And the entirety of FoxNews. FoxNews trusted that it was no big deal, and pumped its viewers with this notion for weeks.

Remember the wanker who wore the gasmask to Congress? That freaking guy thought it was a joke, and believed China, and ignored Italy.

The security briefings warned early on that China was minimizing the severity of the outbreak and that it had a very high chance of being a global pandemic. The people at the top were properly warned. They failed to act in a timely manner.

there have been dozens of reports, viral and otherwise, that china had millions of infections, 10s of thousands of dead. crematories running 24/7 for months. have been backing out their numbers since the beginning.

We have joined that club - at least one million infections and it will be many millions before it is done. We have had an administration that has been trying to hide / minimize the problem since the beginning as well.

China bungled and delayed their response, just like the United States. You cannot “catch up” in a pandemic like this if you do not act early enough.

South Korea will be the model nation here ... despite having over 50 million people, they just recently sneaked past 10,000 confirmed cases and 177 deaths. Real success story, although every lost life is precious.

On a cautious note, Singapore and Taiwan may be seeing a second-wave rise in cases and deaths. In the 1918 pandemic, it was the second wave that killed more people.

The United States will not return to “normal” for a long, long time. We will likely remain in a deep recession through the third quarter of this year. Unemployment will likely rise to double digits, and remain close to 10% as the calendar turns. It all depends on how many Americans end up passing and when ... we are likely to see the death toll continue to grind on through the end of 2021.

“Normal” will not truly return until a vaccine is developed AND the global population is vaccinated. It is probable that won’t be done until sometime in 2022.

The most acute phase will probably (hopefully) pass within a few months. But we’re in for a long haul, folks.

DocBarrister

[kramerica.inc]

Cuomo deploying national guard to take respirators from upstate hospitals and move them to the city.

#upstatelivesmatter now trending on Twitter.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... gear%3famp

Upstaters social distance and heed warnings. And are penalized for their good work.

Redistribution of preparedness by Cuomo.

Citizens be wary. What is next?

[DocBarrister]

Cuomo deploying national guard to take respirators from upstate hospitals and move them to the city.

#upstatelivesmatter now trending on Twitter.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... gear%3famp

Upstaters social distance and heed warnings. And are penalized for their good work.

Redistribution of preparedness by Cuomo.

Citizens be wary. What is next?

You could always appeal to Jared. I hear he’s hoarding some ventilators. Would probably give them to you for a reasonable price.

DocBarrister

[jhu72]

Day 36 since first US death. Now stand at 7391. Data fitted to 6th order polynomial and then predict the Saturday and Sunday totals. EOD Sunday we should be at about 10,800 - unless the trendline changes. Looks like a 4 fold increase in one week.

US Deaths - 4-3-20.jpg (64.92 KiB) Viewed 1488 times

[jhu72]

Cuomo deploying national guard to take respirators from upstate hospitals and move them to the city.

#upstatelivesmatter now trending on Twitter.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... gear%3famp

Upstaters social distance and heed warnings. And are penalized for their good work.

Redistribution of preparedness by Cuomo.

Citizens be wary. What is next?

What choice does he have? NYC needs ventilators, etc. His plan is to move the equipment to where it is needed. Upstate is on multiples curves behind NYC that will peak later. He thinks he has time to move the equipment from NYC to other locations after the NYC peak. I am skeptical this will work.

So what would you do? Trump is hording ventilators. You can't buy them. Maybe, but very very unlikely that you will get ventilators from the companies rushing to make them.

So what do you do??

[jhu72]

“There was a clear need for a more aggressive posture,” said Giroir, an assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services. Asked who was responsible for the delays in the early stages of the crisis, he paused. “A problem like this is bigger than any single agency,” he said. “Clearly, there needed to be a higher level of leadership and organization.”

WaPo story of early CDC / FDA failures.

As I originally posted weeks ago. The administration anti-government bozos did not know how to nor care to drive the bureaucracy. The same anti-government bozos and their Greek Chorus will continue to try to pin the problems on the rank and file as is their way, demonstrated time and time again.

Giroir likely just ended up on Orange Duce's enemies list.

[cradleandshoot]

https://www.politico.com/states/new-yor ... es-1271376
King Andy detests the term "seize" It is kinder and gentler to phrase it as he will redeploy them without the permission of these hospitals. Do not call it "seizing" them. that is just too harsh and is not appropriate to say. It's good to be king, right Andy?
There are comforting words from King Andy that if Upstate does not get these ventilators back and Upstate folks start dying in droves that he "personally guarantees" he will pay for them. Where the eff would that money come from King Andy? You gonna pay it out of your personal checking account? No, your gonna use NYS taxpayer money to pay them back. If yer an Upstate NY shlub King Andy just bent you over and rode you dirty. He didn't even give you a kiss first.

[cradleandshoot]

Cuomo deploying national guard to take respirators from upstate hospitals and move them to the city.

#upstatelivesmatter now trending on Twitter.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... gear%3famp

Upstaters social distance and heed warnings. And are penalized for their good work.

Redistribution of preparedness by Cuomo.

Citizens be wary. What is next?

What choice does he have? NYC needs ventilators, etc. His plan is to move the equipment to where it is needed. Upstate is on multiples curves behind NYC that will peak later. He thinks he has time to move the equipment from NYC to other locations after the NYC peak. I am skeptical this will work.

So what would you do? Trump is hording ventilators. You can't buy them. Maybe, but very very unlikely that you will get ventilators from the companies rushing to make them.

So what do you do??

Why didn't King Andy buy them 5 years ago when he was advised about the shortage of ventilators in NYS? I like how you also use the term redeploy instead of seize. When the national guard is willing to kick your door down and grab them and run that is not zactly a redeployment. I believe that is called theft. I guess this type of crap is nothing new to those of us in Upstate NY. Our mission in life is to bail out downstate for their stupidity time and time again. As Mel Brooks put it... "its good to be king"

[6ftstick]

Comprehension is a terrblething to waste. The modelers themselves think the estimates are overblown and have disavowed them.

Sorry -- false.

From the scientist himself:

neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
·
Mar 26
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
·
Mar 26
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

But don't believe me. From the righties over at National Review:

"No, a COVID Scientist Didn’t Walk Back His Prediction"

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/c ... edictions/

But let's check back in a couple days about how the 20-40k prediction for U.S. deaths by those Stanford docs (which was the main part of your post) is holding up. OK?

Just to be clear. I'm hoping that the modelers are wrong and that there will be fewer deaths and you're hoping for more deaths so you can triumphantly rub my nose in it.

Just in case you still think I was making it up.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/26/neil ... -doomsday/

and
Contrary to what you may have read or heard, British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson has not suddenly reduced his worst-case projection of COVID-19 deaths in the U.K. by a factor of 28. To the contrary, he says the policies adopted by the British government, which are in line with the aggressive control measures recommended by a highly influential March 16 paper that Ferguson and other researchers at Imperial College wrote, should keep the number of deaths below 20,000.

[6ftstick]

We’re several months into the coronavirus crisis.

Why don’t we have enough testing capacity?

Why don’t we have enough PPEs?

Why don’t we have enough ventilators?

Why don’t we have a national stay-in-place order?

Why don’t we have a federally coordinated equipment purchase and distribution system?

Why hasn’t the military been engaged to coordinate logistics around the country?

Why are more than 1,000 Americans dying each day?

This has been a colossal failure of leadership by Donald Trump, and it will cost tens of thousands of American lives.

DocBarrister

This has been a colossal failure of the Chinese Communists, and it will cost tens of thousands of American lives and the lives of many more world wide..

[6ftstick]

We’re several months into the coronavirus crisis.

Why don’t we have enough testing capacity?

Why don’t we have enough PPEs?

Why don’t we have enough ventilators?

Why don’t we have a national stay-in-place order?

Why don’t we have a federally coordinated equipment purchase and distribution system?

Why hasn’t the military been engaged to coordinate logistics around the country?

Why are more than 1,000 Americans dying each day?

This has been a colossal failure of leadership by Donald Trump, and it will cost tens of thousands of American lives.

DocBarrister

This has been a colossal failure of the Chinese Communists, and it will cost tens of thousands of American lives and the lives of many more world wide..

[6ftstick]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Or more...

If accurate, this report should not surprise anyone who's paying attention re Chicoms.

It shouldn't. But it did indeed surprise most of our leaders.

It's plainly, CLEARLY a surprise to many of our Federal and State leaders who laughed this off, from both parties.

And the entirety of FoxNews. FoxNews trusted that it was no big deal, and pumped its viewers with this notion for weeks.

Remember the wanker who wore the gasmask to Congress? That freaking guy thought it was a joke, and believed China, and ignored Italy.

The security briefings warned early on that China was minimizing the severity of the outbreak and that it had a very high chance of being a global pandemic. The people at the top were properly warned. They failed to act in a timely manner.

there have been dozens of reports, viral and otherwise, that china had millions of infections, 10s of thousands of dead. crematories running 24/7 for months. have been backing out their numbers since the beginning.

We have joined that club - at least one million infections and it will be many millions before it is done. We have had an administration that has been trying to hide / minimize the problem since the beginning as well.

When the H1 Ni1 pandemic had been contracted by 30 million Americans and an estimated 18 thousand Americans died where was your outrage.

[6ftstick]

Cuomo deploying national guard to take respirators from upstate hospitals and move them to the city.

#upstatelivesmatter now trending on Twitter.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... gear%3famp

Upstaters social distance and heed warnings. And are penalized for their good work.

Redistribution of preparedness by Cuomo.

Citizens be wary. What is next?

You could always appeal to Jared. I hear he’s hoarding some ventilators. Would probably give them to you for a reasonable price.

DocBarrister

Thats Reprehensible

[Trinity]

“Jared doesn’t know what he’s talking about,” says General Russell Honore.

That’s what’s reprehensible. In this Unmitigated disaster the unqualified son-in-law and his pals have a say.

[CU88]

If we are at war, then we must fight to win.

Interesting read in the NEJM:

"That choice begins with a forceful, focused campaign to eradicate Covid-19 in the United States. The aim is not to flatten the curve; the goal is to crush the curve. China did this in Wuhan. We can do it across this country in 10 weeks.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2007263

[6ftstick]

“Jared doesn’t know what he’s talking about,” says General Russell Honore.

That’s what’s reprehensible. In this Unmitigated disaster the unqualified son-in-law and his pals have a say.

What happens to common sense when you climb into the clown car.

I went to Dunkin Donuts this morning and bought some munchkins for my grandchildren..

I bought them so they were OURS.

Later the grandkids stopped by outside where I had distributed bags with a quantity for each of them.

Then they were THEIRS.

Got that.

[Kismet]

If we are at war, then we must fight to win.

Interesting read in the NEJM:

"That choice begins with a forceful, focused campaign to eradicate Covid-19 in the United States. The aim is not to flatten the curve; the goal is to crush the curve. China did this in Wuhan. We can do it across this country in 10 weeks.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2007263

Excellent piece written and conceived by experts in medicine and virulent disease. Too bad the Keystone Cops in this administration led by DOPUS and his mega-inept son-in-law will NEVER do any of it. So far, they have demonstrated, that they have NO IDEA what to do next.....except maybe to sh*tcan Dr. Tony Fauci for leveling with the people and not towing the Trump-org-style company line.

[6ftstick]

If we are at war, then we must fight to win.

Interesting read in the NEJM:

"That choice begins with a forceful, focused campaign to eradicate Covid-19 in the United States. The aim is not to flatten the curve; the goal is to crush the curve. China did this in Wuhan. We can do it across this country in 10 weeks.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2007263

“If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—for ever.”
― George Orwell, 1984

I'm certain the folks on the task force haven't thought about any of this and applied it across a federalist government with a constitution that guarantees certain freedoms.