All things CoronaVirus

[Laxgunea]

Let me try again. Monkeys: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the-sc ... -67281/amp
Blood pressure: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the-sc ... -67371/amp

[tech37]

Let me try again. Monkeys: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the-sc ... -67281/amp
Blood pressure: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the-sc ... -67371/amp

Thanks! they work...

[RedFromMI]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

[CU77]

Americans are literally dying by the thousands because Trump and his band of grifters and buffoons are so utterly incapable of seeing a crisis coming and managing it when it arrives. The entire government is hampered by Trump’s inattention, his ignorance, his pettiness, his selfishness and his belief in his own infallibility. If there was someone competent who could take control in this moment, there might be some reason to be hopeful.

Instead, we’ve got Jared Kushner. If there’s a better — and more horrifying — illustration of everything that’s wrong with this presidency, it’s hard to recall. And we’re all paying the price.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... cceptable/

[Laxgunea]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Wow. Not surprising, but wow. I think Italy and Spain have been as accurate as possible ... because of the free press. Local papers really tell the story.

[tech37]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Or more...

If accurate, this report should not surprise anyone who's paying attention re Chicoms.

[ggait]

All Models are wrong. Some models are useful. - W. Deming

So true.

These Stanford docs predict 20-40k U.S. total deaths. Fauci and Birks predict 100-270k best case. UW predicts 100k, but with a possible range of 40-178k.

I'd point out that the Stanford low end of the range looks pretty unrealistic right now. Since we already have 6k deaths. Since current daily deaths are at 1,000. Suppose we flat line at 1,000 for the next two weeks and then drop to zero. That's still 20k right there.

Three months from now, we'll know who is right. Problem is, you have to make decisions now.

So what is Gov. Six Foot going to do today...?

[MDlaxfan76]

3 interesting dates

February 7, 2020

February 19, 2020

February 25, 2020

Three democrat party primary debates. All after Trump closed the borders to Chinese New Year travelers.

How many questions from a concerned media about Corona virus.

What democrat candidate brought it up for discussion and debate.

If your guess is higher than ZERO. You're wrong

You know, someone whose job it is to tell the candidate (or POTUS) that a situation is coming of epic proportions needing planning and first actions immediately?

How about the people asking the freakin questions THE MSM.

They were asking those questions of those who actually got the intelligence briefings and the experts and officials put forward...you know, the folks in authority.

That said, it sure would have been interesting if they'd asked during the debates. But what a miserable structure that was for any considered discussion of most anything, short little responses and retorts to one another...

"They were asking those questions of those who actually got the intelligence briefings and the experts and officials put forward...you know, the folks in authority."

Thank you MD for my laugh of the day. You lost me after intelligence briefings and experts. The folks in authority here are about as knowledgeable as those bums on the corner with their homeless/hungry/godbless signs.

On that, we'd indeed agree, knuckleheads...though sure would have liked more Fauci early on, unmuzzled.
Problem is, no actual authority for the scientists.

When you again and again and again reject science and for that matter pretty much any expertise...

My wife is living with this reality every damn day MD. The science is in the infancy stage when it comes to understanding this virus. They do not have the slightest idea why some folks die with pre- existing conditions and other wise healthy people die albeit in smaller numbers. My wife has taken to heart the opinion of one her doctors at Rochester General. She has said we don't know what the f**k we are dealing with. This thing does not act like anything they have dealt with before. When it hits your lungs you are in big trouble no matter who you are. The best advice my wife gives me... wash your hands, don't touch your face, and stay away from people. The same damn advice we all get every day.

good advice; very best wishes to your family.

[a fan]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Or more...

If accurate, this report should not surprise anyone who's paying attention re Chicoms.

It shouldn't. But it did indeed surprise most of our leaders.

It's plainly, CLEARLY a surprise to many of our Federal and State leaders who laughed this off, from both parties.

And the entirety of FoxNews. FoxNews trusted that it was no big deal, and pumped its viewers with this notion for weeks.

Remember the wanker who wore the gasmask to Congress? That freaking guy thought it was a joke, and believed China, and ignored Italy.

[runrussellrun]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Our own agency, the CDC, has deaths for the "normal" annual FLU at 20k to 40K. Pretty NOT close to being accurate, imho.
Why does it surprise you the count is off in a communist country? Dicktators ?

Oh, that's right, box stores don't sell SPEED Queen appliances, completely made in the USA. How many of YOU own speed queens?

exactly

[6ftstick]

All Models are wrong. Some models are useful. - W. Deming

So true.

These Stanford docs predict 20-40k U.S. total deaths. Fauci and Birks predict 100-270k best case. UW predicts 100k, but with a possible range of 40-178k.

I'd point out that the Stanford low end of the range looks pretty unrealistic right now. Since we already have 6k deaths. Since current daily deaths are at 1,000. Suppose we flat line at 1,000 for the next two weeks and then drop to zero. That's 20k right there.

Three months from now, we'll know who is right. Problem is, you have to make decisions now.

So what is Gov. Six Foot going to do today...?

My post was that the people who created the models that the estimates came from are saying "Estimates, what estimates we didn't make no stinking estimates." And they're calling them the WHITE HOUSE estimates distancing themselves from any part of this. Looks a little bit fishy

[ggait]

All Models are wrong. Some models are useful. - W. Deming

So true.

These Stanford docs predict 20-40k U.S. total deaths. Fauci and Birks predict 100-270k best case. UW predicts 100k, but with a possible range of 40-178k.

I'd point out that the Stanford low end of the range looks pretty unrealistic right now. Since we already have 6k deaths. Since current daily deaths are at 1,000. Suppose we flat line at 1,000 for the next two weeks and then drop to zero. That's 20k right there.

Three months from now, we'll know who is right. Problem is, you have to make decisions now.

So what is Gov. Six Foot going to do today...?

My post was that the people who created the models that the estimates came from are saying "Estimates, what estimates we didn't make no stinking estimates." And they're calling them the WHITE HOUSE estimates distancing themselves from any part of this. Looks a little bit fishy

Come on Six. Below is a paste of your post. Questioning if this whole thing is overblown. And also citing that Stanford 20-40k estimate which is looking pretty iffy right now.

Could all this misery have been avoided.

What?

On Tuesday, professors of medicine at Stanford University, Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya, released statistical data that shows the estimated death rates of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, are likely “orders of magnitude too high.”Models that have been used by government officials project that million of Americans, 2.2-4 million, will perish from COVID-19 if no precautions are taken, peaking in June. But after looking at data samples from places like Wuhan, China, where the virus originated, hard-hit northeast Italy, Iceland, and the United States, our nation may be looking at a .01 death rate, which is a ten-fold lower death rate than that of the flu and equating to some 20,000-40,000 deaths total, the study found.

[RedFromMI]

All Models are wrong. Some models are useful. - W. Deming

So true.

These Stanford docs predict 20-40k U.S. total deaths. Fauci and Birks predict 100-270k best case. UW predicts 100k, but with a possible range of 40-178k.

I'd point out that the Stanford low end of the range looks pretty unrealistic right now. Since we already have 6k deaths. Since current daily deaths are at 1,000. Suppose we flat line at 1,000 for the next two weeks and then drop to zero. That's 20k right there.

Three months from now, we'll know who is right. Problem is, you have to make decisions now.

So what is Gov. Six Foot going to do today...?

My post was that the people who created the models that the estimates came from are saying "Estimates, what estimates we didn't make no stinking estimates." And they're calling them the WHITE HOUSE estimates distancing themselves from any part of this. Looks a little bit fishy

The Seattle group model (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections, and updated daily with new numbers) currently has deaths at 93500 with a range from 40K to 178K. Peak death rate per day at 2644 in 13 days. Predicts ICU beds, number of cases...

What I like about this site is the people involved (University of Washington) were involved early and often in this pandemic, and are quite upfront with their model data and results. You can use a drop down to look at an individual state as well.

[CU77]

Also ignore anyone else who tells you that their policy is above criticism, that politics don’t apply in a pandemic, or that accountability and transparency need to be suspended for some indefinite period of time. The opposite is true: All of the decisions being made right now, whether medical or economic, deserve widespread scrutiny and debate. As Francis Fukuyama has written, there is no evidence that authoritarians are better than others at controlling disease; several democracies—South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and perhaps Germany—look like they have control of their coronavirus outbreaks. Nor does any evidence show that secrecy produces better outcomes; quite the contrary.

There is evidence that effective bureaucracy, good information and good data will help us survive. If we are not only to get through this global crisis but come out on the other side better prepared, we also need to keep track of which decisions were made and when, and to remember who was responsible for them: in the United States and the United Kingdom, in China and Taiwan, in Germany and France, in South Africa and Brazil—and in Hungary too.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... se/609331/

[Farfromgeneva]

Hmmm, now I am not one to critique a politician who is simply trying their level-best to deal in very difficult circumstances, however we need to be sensitive to any time when Democrats get too in touch with their authoritarian impulses. Plus if anything occurs which impacts those great lacrosse players from upstate New York, I can think of no other online forum which needs to have their voices heard than Fanlax.

Andrew Cuomo has basically instituted martial law by declaring that he will now seize ventilators from upstate NY and transport them downstate. This order will be carried out by The National Guard of NY. If you are an upstate NY hospital or own a private practice anywhere in the state of NY, your assets are subject to seizure.

I'm not entirely down with this power move. Maybe necessary, also maybe short-sighted, definitely unconstitutional.

What says the Upstaters of NY State here?

I've been wondering, read a bit of news on the virus specific, but try not to read too much daily out of concern of getting garbage in garbage out overkill of information in such a fluid environment, but I've been walking around a lot while back up in Binghamton. It's rained and been cloudy all but 2 out of 9 days here and it's the rainiest and cloudiest city east of the Rocky Mtns (10th and 7th respectively nationally) so it's cooler but super humid and moist here. I also live up from the downtown trough of the valley the city sits in, near a zoo on the south side closer to the PA border, barely within city limits (town is like 0.5mi from house). Seems like most NYS folks here are either downstate or in the thruway corridor from Albany - Buffalo (through Cuse and Rochacha) which doesn't have this kind of humidity. Is this area I've been in theoretically worse to be in given it's conditions?

Typical small city/town mentality that they're more afraid than major dense cities is what I've seen here even though the density is very low. We are mostly all getting it, but similar to how I get hassled more at airports in Dayton, OH, Buffalo, NY, Paducah, KY than I do at JFK or O'Hare as if Dayton and Paducah are high on terrorist lists).

[RedFromMI]

Some miscellaneous information from TPM/Josh Marshall:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/covid-miscellany-1

• A discussion on how as we get more data the models (including the government favored UW one) will get better

• How we may need to use high tech apps to do better than traditional contact tracing when we get past the peak: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/covid-miscellany-1

• How Trumps travel ban

  was almost certainly too late. ABC got access to travel data from the Commerce Department and Customs and Border Protection that shows that during December, January and February a total of 759,493 people entered the country from China. 228,000 of those were Americans returning home. The rest were mostly Chinese nationals here for education, business, vacations and all the other reasons people travel abroad. Another 18,000 Americans returned from China in February and March. When you add people arriving from Italy, Spain, the UK and five other hard hit countries the number balloons to 3.4 million.

• Iceland is doing something that approaches mass surveillance testing and they’re finding that 50% of COVID-19 infections have no symptoms.

• A tragic super-spreader event in Washington state (a church chorus practice) shed new light on the role of airborne transmission of COVID-19.

• A VA hospital/assisted living facility in MA had an outbreak dating back to the beginning of March that was kept secret until a whistleblower spoke up

[6ftstick]

All Models are wrong. Some models are useful. - W. Deming

So true.

These Stanford docs predict 20-40k U.S. total deaths. Fauci and Birks predict 100-270k best case. UW predicts 100k, but with a possible range of 40-178k.

I'd point out that the Stanford low end of the range looks pretty unrealistic right now. Since we already have 6k deaths. Since current daily deaths are at 1,000. Suppose we flat line at 1,000 for the next two weeks and then drop to zero. That's 20k right there.

Three months from now, we'll know who is right. Problem is, you have to make decisions now.

So what is Gov. Six Foot going to do today...?

My post was that the people who created the models that the estimates came from are saying "Estimates, what estimates we didn't make no stinking estimates." And they're calling them the WHITE HOUSE estimates distancing themselves from any part of this. Looks a little bit fishy

Come on Six. Below is a paste of your post. Questioning if this whole thing is overblown. And also citing that Stanford 20-40k estimate which is looking pretty iffy right now.

Could all this misery have been avoided.

What?

On Tuesday, professors of medicine at Stanford University, Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya, released statistical data that shows the estimated death rates of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, are likely “orders of magnitude too high.”Models that have been used by government officials project that million of Americans, 2.2-4 million, will perish from COVID-19 if no precautions are taken, peaking in June. But after looking at data samples from places like Wuhan, China, where the virus originated, hard-hit northeast Italy, Iceland, and the United States, our nation may be looking at a .01 death rate, which is a ten-fold lower death rate than that of the flu and equating to some 20,000-40,000 deaths total, the study found.

Comprehension is a terrblething to waste. The modelers themselves think the estimates are overblown and have disavowed them.

[holmes435]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Or more...

If accurate, this report should not surprise anyone who's paying attention re Chicoms.

It shouldn't. But it did indeed surprise most of our leaders.

It's plainly, CLEARLY a surprise to many of our Federal and State leaders who laughed this off, from both parties.

And the entirety of FoxNews. FoxNews trusted that it was no big deal, and pumped its viewers with this notion for weeks.

Remember the wanker who wore the gasmask to Congress? That freaking guy thought it was a joke, and believed China, and ignored Italy.

The security briefings warned early on that China was minimizing the severity of the outbreak and that it had a very high chance of being a global pandemic. The people at the top were properly warned. They failed to act in a timely manner.

[ggait]

Comprehension is a terrblething to waste. The modelers themselves think the estimates are overblown and have disavowed them.

Sorry -- false.

From the scientist himself:

neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
·
Mar 26
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
·
Mar 26
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

But don't believe me. From the righties over at National Review:

"No, a COVID Scientist Didn’t Walk Back His Prediction"

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/c ... edictions/

But let's check back in a couple days about how the 20-40k prediction for U.S. deaths by those Stanford docs (which was the main part of your post) is holding up. OK?

[Laxgunea]

Death count estimates for Wuhan in WaPo:

Chinese families should be sweeping graves now. But thousands still haven’t buried their dead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes had returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.

Wuhan residents say the activities belie the official statistics. “It can’t be right . . . because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?” a man, identified only by his surname of Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.

U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly concluded that China’s numbers are much lower than they are in reality.

Our own agency, the CDC, has deaths for the "normal" annual FLU at 20k to 40K. Pretty NOT close to being accurate, imho.
Why does it surprise you the count is off in a communist country? Dicktators ?

Oh, that's right, box stores don't sell SPEED Queen appliances, completely made in the USA. How many of YOU own speed queens?

exactly

I was surprised ... and actually I own a Spped Queen ... great washer!