All things CoronaVirus

[ggait]

Optimistic numbers for the US though - roughly 100K deaths with full SD. Of course the present situation is not full SD everywhere.

That is a very hopeful forecast.

Peak daily deaths of 2,644 on 4/16. Things really drop off during May. June 1 daily deaths are down to 222. Total deaths 94k.

Let's hope so.

[wgdsr]

there is this on italy:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/it ... r-BB122vvc

our own numbers are of course inaccurate, at the minimum on reported cases. capacity, preparation for testing, etc. during every pandemic there is a substantial adjustment for what we thought we were tracking in real time. the article lays out some very wide disparities about what has been reported in that ravaged country, whose populace was particularly vulnerable. deaths are 2x? 5x?
the most standout to me was health expert estimates of several times to as much as 60 x (6 million) afflicted. hope the number on the cases there is very high, so as we look back and this goes through the country, we see a case fatality rate that is much lower than a worst case. that will help every society that needs immunity if we don't get a therapy or working vaccine for awhile.
it is difficult to have a positive spin on italy's and spain's recent situation with regard to more evening case numbers and deaths just yet, as they're so overwhelmed they are turning patients away. more from the nyt, about 10 days ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/worl ... itals.html

from what i could find, italy has more hospital beds per capita than we do. probably icu also.

[ggait]

Why Italy and Spain are so bad:

1. High population density. 532 people per square mile in Italy; 94 in the U.S.
2. Very high use of public transit. Car oriented suburbs are much more spaced out than urban areas.
3. Older population.
4. Lots of smokers. 17% of Americans smoke -- 24% of Italians, 29% of Spaniards.
5. Lots of international tourism.
6. Pleasant weather in February and March. Which increases tourism and large public gatherings.

Those trends will overwhelm any amount of health system capacity.

Only bright spot is that those two countries appear to be at or maybe slightly past the peak.

[6ftstick]

NYC has now told their EMTs to DNR cardiac cases without a pulse.

Welcome to socialized single payer healthcare.

First government will legislate NO advocates in the room—no family or friends. Then they'll extinguish the lights.

At least Governor Northum was going the extra step to keep the victim warm and comfortable before it was killed.

[a fan]

NYC has now told their EMTs to DNR cardiac cases without a pulse.

Welcome to socialized single payer healthcare.

No. Welcome to our current, actual system. Right now, in real time. The American health care system.

Think this current system is working well?

I don't.

[wgdsr]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/flattening-t ... 05639.html

Here's an article for the "it wouldn't have made a difference who was in charge" crowd.

washington being first has been encouraging what they've been able to do. california --- so far, so good. article has a number of good links and refernces i can utilize, thanks. kinsa has been encouraging.

i'm interested in what comes out of hcl+ z study, if it ever does. france's looks like the combo at least has promise. nowhere near an infectious disease expert, so how we come out of this once it's tamed is what most concerns next for the health and well being of everyone. getting it right on the back end won't be easy if we don't have a way of getting ro or case fatality down somehow.

on the "who's in charge" -- we've all got our opinions. i wish there was a leader out there in recent times who could've pulled off all the things that we may believe in hindsight are/were critical. maybe in 4 years we will search out such a person.

[ChairmanOfTheBoard]

cradle- firstly let me say thanks for sharing on an anonymous forum.

secondly, my condolences and there isnt much i can say that can help.

however. in my experience, i've noted that sometimes people who get laid off end up better off, for various reasons- if not because they were in a job that was stagnant, or needed a budge, or needed time off for a reboot/sabbatical, or time with family, or got a great severance, or got a job and career change they never wouldve gone for if it wasnt for the push. often they end up happier, learning more, sometimes bigger comp.

in addition, i've also seen those who lose jobs- while the job market hasnt yet bottomed out- and then when it does- they are all set up, while the rest who hung around longer now compete for less jobs. here's to this happening to you.

just trying to offer up anything positive. hang in there!!!

[CU77]

A nurse who lives two doors down said this is happening at her hospital----because so many people are rightly staying away from hospitals, surgeries and visits and checkups are all being cancelled. The hospital's response? Lay off the doctors, or dock their pay.

For-profit health care. Love it!

[CU77]

George is no longer a Republican, either.

Because to be a Republican today means to be a Trump cultist, full stop.

[Farfromgeneva]

My mother is in the hospital (Binghamton General UHS, would’ve preferred Lourdes here but doesn’t matter, she fell and broke her arm and won’t be released without PT because she uses her arms to get up from laying/seated positions and has weak legs). The hospital is on lockdown and she had further a biopsy due to some lumps discovered on her liver which have been diagnosed as malignant. Yesterday someone on her floor contracted Corona, so the floor is on an even increased quarantine within the hospital walls. Biopsy was Tues am just got the results a few min ago. I’ve been up here since last Weds/Thurs (got in around midnight) and can’t get access to her in hospital, can’t see assisted living centers as she can’t go back to her house,or do much other than keep her bills paid and clean out a bunch of old hoarder dump in her house. I don’t have more information but in a less than robust 75yr old lady there’s a chance I and my sister (in Oakland) may not be able to see her again before she dies, as of now have no idea how severed the cancer is yet or details, but also seems like the hospital is going to be on lockdown most of the rest of this quarter. And that’s assuming the virus doesn’t get more of them. Crazy that dying people have to be quarantined from their immediate family.

Sorry to hear man, I wish you both the best. My mother has a degenerative brain disease and is mostly bedridden now and probably not long for this world. Since I can't visit anymore, we try to video chat a few times a week. She's also got COPD (she smoked for 40 years and quit 15 years ago), and is a breast cancer survivor. My father is 80+ and in good shape but had polio growing up and has an atrial flutter. He's taking care of her for the most part, but they have some people that come in and help out. He was originally one of the "the flu kills a lot more people" and still isn't taking it as seriously as he should, but we've been able to talk a lot of sense into him over the past few weeks, especially by highlighting how much my mother is at risk. I don't want this thing taking them out before I get a chance to see them in person again.

My aunt & uncle are 70+, and my wife's immediate family (parents, aunts & uncle) are 65+.

A lot of us on the board may not be high risk (some are), but we certainly all know people who are who are dear to us.

My mother also survived breast cancer back in 1999 (lumpumectomy sp?, removed the chunk no spread thankfully, recall coming back during football preseason for a few days, probably ruined my season with the team but oh well) and has AFIB (heart issue), so she was getting beat up over the years. I may just pull a move and find a way in. It's not about me, there's no way she should have to die alone. But to be clear, she doesn't (as of now anyway) have the virus, just the four malignant tumors on the liver (and broken arm, and AFIB still hangs around I guess), just someone on the floor, so while I had administrative people considering some option for me to get in, that's completely off the table now that someone got it on the floor.

[DocBarrister]

My mother is in the hospital (Binghamton General UHS, would’ve preferred Lourdes here but doesn’t matter, she fell and broke her arm and won’t be released without PT because she uses her arms to get up from laying/seated positions and has weak legs). The hospital is on lockdown and she had further a biopsy due to some lumps discovered on her liver which have been diagnosed as malignant. Yesterday someone on her floor contracted Corona, so the floor is on an even increased quarantine within the hospital walls. Biopsy was Tues am just got the results a few min ago. I’ve been up here since last Weds/Thurs (got in around midnight) and can’t get access to her in hospital, can’t see assisted living centers as she can’t go back to her house,or do much other than keep her bills paid and clean out a bunch of old hoarder dump in her house. I don’t have more information but in a less than robust 75yr old lady there’s a chance I and my sister (in Oakland) may not be able to see her again before she dies, as of now have no idea how severed the cancer is yet or details, but also seems like the hospital is going to be on lockdown most of the rest of this quarter. And that’s assuming the virus doesn’t get more of them. Crazy that dying people have to be quarantined from their immediate family.

Sorry to hear man, I wish you both the best. My mother has a degenerative brain disease and is mostly bedridden now and probably not long for this world. Since I can't visit anymore, we try to video chat a few times a week. She's also got COPD (she smoked for 40 years and quit 15 years ago), and is a breast cancer survivor. My father is 80+ and in good shape but had polio growing up and has an atrial flutter. He's taking care of her for the most part, but they have some people that come in and help out. He was originally one of the "the flu kills a lot more people" and still isn't taking it as seriously as he should, but we've been able to talk a lot of sense into him over the past few weeks, especially by highlighting how much my mother is at risk. I don't want this thing taking them out before I get a chance to see them in person again.

My aunt & uncle are 70+, and my wife's immediate family (parents, aunts & uncle) are 65+.

A lot of us on the board may not be high risk (some are), but we certainly all know people who are who are dear to us.

My mother also survived breast cancer back in 1999 (lumpumectomy sp?, removed the chunk no spread thankfully, recall coming back during football preseason for a few days, probably ruined my season with the team but oh well) and has AFIB (heart issue), so she was getting beat up over the years. I may just pull a move and find a way in. It's not about me, there's no way she should have to die alone. But to be clear, she doesn't (as of now anyway) have the virus, just the four malignant tumors on the liver (and broken arm, and AFIB still hangs around I guess), just someone on the floor, so while I had administrative people considering some option for me to get in, that's completely off the table now that someone got it on the floor.

Best wishes to you and your family, FFG.

DocB

[DocBarrister]

New research suggests that the virus could possibly be spread by talking or even breathing. Strengthens the case for all people wearing a mask.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/a ... index.html

DocBarrister

[CU77]

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who resisted strict coronavirus measures, says he just learned it transmits asymptomatically
…
“You know that in the beginning, we were not sure if there were asymptomatic infection, which would make it a much broader outbreak than what we’re seeing. Now we know for sure that there are,” Fauci said at a Jan. 31 task force briefing. “It was not clear whether an asymptomatic person could transmit it to someone while they were asymptomatic. Now we know from a recent report from Germany that that is absolutely the case.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... matically/

[3rdPersonPlural]

Some people are sticking close to home. Others aren't. God bless the south.

[Peter Brown]

Some people are sticking close to home. Others aren't. God bless the south.

It’s amazing to see liberals here repost a map where the guy who put it up originally is absolutely getting slaughtered on Twitter, causing him to retract the original thesis. The real problem is finding liberals who are NOT filled with hate, rage, or snark against those they think are inferior to them.

UHHH, 3rd person, not sure liberals can wrap their brains around the idea that grocery stores and places of work in rural areas are often more than two miles away. Not everyone has access to a corner bodega.

[seacoaster]

George Conway's take above and he isn't close to being a democrat.

George is no longer a Republican, either.

For the time being, his sole grift is being anti-Trump. He abandoned any pretense of having a core principle, reducing himself (as so many anti-Trump folks do) to what he professes to so dislike in Trump: a one-note, unprincipled opportunist.

Carry on.

Nearly completely false. No problem.

[seacoaster]

It hit home for me today. I just got laid off until we get over this thing. Funny that with all the bennies on the table right now I still be making more money while I am unemployed. The sad thing is that the casinos are not open.

Hang in there and best of luck. We will all get through it.

Yes we will. Together this thing is nothing we can't handle.

Hang in there old friend. Just more time to take care of your bride, and your garden. Question: do you have a dog these days?

[seacoaster]

My mother is in the hospital (Binghamton General UHS, would’ve preferred Lourdes here but doesn’t matter, she fell and broke her arm and won’t be released without PT because she uses her arms to get up from laying/seated positions and has weak legs). The hospital is on lockdown and she had further a biopsy due to some lumps discovered on her liver which have been diagnosed as malignant. Yesterday someone on her floor contracted Corona, so the floor is on an even increased quarantine within the hospital walls. Biopsy was Tues am just got the results a few min ago. I’ve been up here since last Weds/Thurs (got in around midnight) and can’t get access to her in hospital, can’t see assisted living centers as she can’t go back to her house,or do much other than keep her bills paid and clean out a bunch of old hoarder dump in her house. I don’t have more information but in a less than robust 75yr old lady there’s a chance I and my sister (in Oakland) may not be able to see her again before she dies, as of now have no idea how severed the cancer is yet or details, but also seems like the hospital is going to be on lockdown most of the rest of this quarter. And that’s assuming the virus doesn’t get more of them. Crazy that dying people have to be quarantined from their immediate family.

Sorry to hear this. My mother is 96, living with my sister and brother in law in Irvine, CA, and you cannot help but worry. My mother would prefer Lourdes to all of this as well. Hang in there.

[CU88]

Most of the 100,000 ventilators that President Donald Trump promised the U.S. would obtain won't be available until June, Federal Emergency Management Agency officials told the House Oversight Committee this week.

At the March 30 briefing, FEMA officials also acknowledged that they knew in mid-January that the supply of N95 respirator masks would fall short, according to the readout.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/0 ... ors-161840

[njbill]

Saw this notice from the New Jersey Bar today:

“ZOOM court appearances are just like normal court appearances. The Court rules on physical appearance and decorum remain in full effect. You MUST be properly dressed. You must maintain proper decorum to the court. This includes making sure you are in a proper location and there are no inappropriate images, art, or photos, that can be seen in the broadcast with you. You also must ensure there are no improper noises in the back ground i.e. music, TV, or conversations that could be broadcast over the video record. This is on you to 100% comply with these requirements. You must maintain a proper and professional image when representing clients in court. Finally, remember these ZOOM feeds from criminal court are recorded and Live Streamed on YouTube and/or viewable later on the same platform.”

No mention of whether your dog can be held in contempt of court for barking.