All things CoronaVirus

[CU88]

Here in MD, we are seeing local distillery companies converting some product to hand sanitizer.

One place was doing 4 oz bottles until they ran out of bottles. Another place, I just ordered 55 gallons for one of our constructions sites. Not cheap but great for peace of mind, and hopefully prevention.

"55 gallon Bulk Hand San. Taxable $1,650.00"

[jhu72]

Cuomo says only 20% of people who go on ventilators are able to come off and recover. Very sobering.

This is consistent with what I am hearing from my nephew who is an ER physician in the Poconos, one of the areas that serves as a bedroom community for NYC.

It is not a good rate for coming off even in normal times.

[MDlaxfan76]

According to Vice President Pence, we are the new Italy, which means we are the new standard of failure in this pandemic.

What

Daily Death rate
Italy 14 deaths per day per million.
Spain 17 deaths per day per million.
UK a little under 3 deaths per day per million.
US 1.2 deaths per day per million

Is Pence wrong?

Pence said we'd overtaken Italy in number of cases. Not that we were "the new standard in failure."

Well sure, we've indeed moved to #1 in daily deaths.
Not per capita yet.

If you want to compare the US and Italy on a more relevant metric, look at NY, NJ, Conn and timing of their curve and that of Italy.
We're behind them in terms of timing, but worse at the same relative point in time.

Pray we don't stay worse as time goes along, because that'll mean health system overwhelmed, rationing of care only to those most likely to survive, letting others go...not being able to get to heart attacks etc. Italy has an older population than the US, so that'll help us, but we have fewer beds and docs per capita than Italy, which will not help.

Then look around country at growing blooms, on trajectories similar to NY region...have we acted in time?
Sure hope we can bend it.

[Cooter]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/already-had- ... 11866.html

Could I have had it and been asymptomatic?

Hillmann: Coronavirus is actually quite a significant spectrum of symptoms, from people who are entirely asymptomatic and would have no idea that they have it to people with very mild, cold-like symptoms – runny nose, congestion, sore throat – to people with more flu-like symptoms – high fevers, muscle aches, shortness of breath and cough. All the way up to people with severe illness, who we’re seeing in the hospital with respiratory failure, requiring ICU care. (Editor’s note: recent reports suggest that loss of smell and taste are also signs of Covid-19 infection.)
What percentage of carriers are asymptomatic?

Dr David Buchholz: Right now in New York, we’re only testing the sickest possible people. So we have no idea. However, there was a study in Iceland, which tested [a large segment of its] population, and 50% of the people who tested positive had no symptoms.

Are people who are asymptomatic also contagious?

Hillmann: A significant proportion of people who are totally asymptomatic are contagious for some portion of time. We just don’t know [for how long] at this point, because we don’t have the kind of testing available to screen for asymptomatic infections.

If I’ve had it, can I get it again?

Buchholz: There’s not been any evidence that anyone’s gotten it more than once. Someone with a normal immune system that can react to the virus and get better should have immunity for quite some time, at least a year, if not lifelong.

There have been reports out of China suggesting people are testing positive for Covid-19 a second time. Most scientists think it is an issue around the inaccuracy of the testing and not that people are having two separate cases of the disease.

[RedFromMI]

Florida @GovRonDeSantis tis to sign order requiring residents to 'limit movements' outside home

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... iI.twitter

"I'm going to be doing an executive order today directing all Floridians to limit movements and all personal interactions outside the home to only those necessary to obtain or provide essential services or conduct essential activities," DeSantis said at a press briefing.

Finally at least some movement from the gov...after dragging his feet for a couple of weeks...

And in a great reaction from Twitter (@goldengateblond) to this order:

BREAKING: Mayor on ‘Jaws’ beach finally acknowledges people are being eaten

[MDlaxfan76]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/already-had- ... 11866.html

Could I have had it and been asymptomatic?

Hillmann: Coronavirus is actually quite a significant spectrum of symptoms, from people who are entirely asymptomatic and would have no idea that they have it to people with very mild, cold-like symptoms – runny nose, congestion, sore throat – to people with more flu-like symptoms – high fevers, muscle aches, shortness of breath and cough. All the way up to people with severe illness, who we’re seeing in the hospital with respiratory failure, requiring ICU care. (Editor’s note: recent reports suggest that loss of smell and taste are also signs of Covid-19 infection.)
What percentage of carriers are asymptomatic?

Dr David Buchholz: Right now in New York, we’re only testing the sickest possible people. So we have no idea. However, there was a study in Iceland, which tested [a large segment of its] population, and 50% of the people who tested positive had no symptoms.

Are people who are asymptomatic also contagious?

Hillmann: A significant proportion of people who are totally asymptomatic are contagious for some portion of time. We just don’t know [for how long] at this point, because we don’t have the kind of testing available to screen for asymptomatic infections.

If I’ve had it, can I get it again?

Buchholz: There’s not been any evidence that anyone’s gotten it more than once. Someone with a normal immune system that can react to the virus and get better should have immunity for quite some time, at least a year, if not lifelong.

There have been reports out of China suggesting people are testing positive for Covid-19 a second time. Most scientists think it is an issue around the inaccuracy of the testing and not that people are having two separate cases of the disease.

On the latter, we really don't know how this will evolve. We are unable to build substantial immunity to the common cold, similar virus to CV we think, nor are we able to develop a vaccine. That's because it evolves.

Apparently there are already 8 variations that have been found of CV-19. No guarantee that they will each build immunity for the others.

Of course, that the dark perspective.

[6ftstick]

That idiot Trump look at all these deaths he's doing nothing about

WHO Total deaths in the world

Coronary Heart Disease.....8,727,670
Stroke..........................6,221,072
Influenza and Pneumonia...3,177,204
Lung Disease..................3,162,054
HIV/AIDS.......................1,059,626
Malaria...........................439,026

[ggait]

According to Vice President Pence, we are the new Italy, which means we are the new standard of failure in this pandemic.

What

Daily Death rate
Italy 14 deaths per day per million.
Spain 17 deaths per day per million.
UK a little under 3 deaths per day per million.
US 1.2 deaths per day per million

Six -- look at the log scale curves on deaths. Italy deaths are now doubling every 8 days. Spain every 5 days. France and UK every four days. U.S. deaths every three days. US and UK daily growth in deaths today is much higher than in Spain and Italy. So we are going to be shooting past the other countries into bad territory soon.

As the Great One says, focus on where the puck is going, not where it is now.

Let's put a pin on your post and re-examine a week from now, OK?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... untry.html

[6ftstick]

According to Vice President Pence, we are the new Italy, which means we are the new standard of failure in this pandemic.

What

Daily Death rate
Italy 14 deaths per day per million.
Spain 17 deaths per day per million.
UK a little under 3 deaths per day per million.
US 1.2 deaths per day per million

Six -- look at the log scale curves on deaths. Italy deaths are now doubling every 8 days. Spain every 5 days. France and UK every four days. U.S. deaths every three days. US and UK daily growth in deaths today is much higher than in Spain and Italy. So we are going to be shooting past the other countries into bad territory soon.

As the Great One says, focus on where the puck is going, not where it is now.

Let's put a pin on your post and re-examine a week from now, OK?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... untry.html

Based on the life of the virus It looks like its peaked in Italy and Spain.

Here its two weeks later.

Italy and Spains death per million rate has always been higher than ours.

[CU88]

o d only concern...

[Cooter]

o d only concern...

That is pretty stupid.

[6ftstick]

Anyone heard any info on how many people with underlying conditions are dying from those issues and not coronavirus.

Nearly nine million people die annually from Heart disease, 3 million from lung disease, 3 million more from pneumonia etc—are they really dying from corona virus.

[Bart]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/already-had- ... 11866.html

Could I have had it and been asymptomatic?

Hillmann: Coronavirus is actually quite a significant spectrum of symptoms, from people who are entirely asymptomatic and would have no idea that they have it to people with very mild, cold-like symptoms – runny nose, congestion, sore throat – to people with more flu-like symptoms – high fevers, muscle aches, shortness of breath and cough. All the way up to people with severe illness, who we’re seeing in the hospital with respiratory failure, requiring ICU care. (Editor’s note: recent reports suggest that loss of smell and taste are also signs of Covid-19 infection.)
What percentage of carriers are asymptomatic?

Dr David Buchholz: Right now in New York, we’re only testing the sickest possible people. So we have no idea. However, there was a study in Iceland, which tested [a large segment of its] population, and 50% of the people who tested positive had no symptoms.

Are people who are asymptomatic also contagious?

Hillmann: A significant proportion of people who are totally asymptomatic are contagious for some portion of time. We just don’t know [for how long] at this point, because we don’t have the kind of testing available to screen for asymptomatic infections.

If I’ve had it, can I get it again?

Buchholz: There’s not been any evidence that anyone’s gotten it more than once. Someone with a normal immune system that can react to the virus and get better should have immunity for quite some time, at least a year, if not lifelong.

There have been reports out of China suggesting people are testing positive for Covid-19 a second time. Most scientists think it is an issue around the inaccuracy of the testing and not that people are having two separate cases of the disease.

On the latter, we really don't know how this will evolve. We are unable to build substantial immunity to the common cold, similar virus to CV we think, nor are we able to develop a vaccine. That's because it evolves.

Apparently there are already 8 variations that have been found of CV-19. No guarantee that they will each build immunity for the others.

Of course, that the dark perspective.

The flu virus mutates on average 10 -12 times a month. The current literature I have read indicates this virus mutates at 1 - 2 times a month. Most of the mutations that occur in both the flu and corona are in non coding nonsense regions. We seem to be able to generate a fairly effective vaccine against a virus that mutates at quite a different rate. From what I have read given these factors the ability to generate a viable vaccine is quite likely. You would expect the antigens to target the spike protein or some other highly conserved surface protein.

[6ftstick]

o d only concern...

That is pretty stupid.

More people will die from hunger poverty and depression than this virus. 10's of millions unemployed—Thats not stupid. Thats fact.

[Cooter]

o d only concern...

That is pretty stupid.

More people will die from hunger poverty and depression than this virus. 10's of millions unemployed—Thats not stupid. Thats fact.

CU88's picture is comparing the coronavirus to the extinction of the dinosaurs.

[ggait]

More people will die from hunger poverty and depression than this virus. 10's of millions unemployed—Thats not stupid. Thats fact.

Perhaps true in some scenarios. I myself am terrified of the economic fallout. But that isn't actionable information.

Leave the economy fully open and you get 2.2 million U.S. deaths from the virus. Total U.S. deaths in a year is 2.8 million. And at that level (as Bill Gates correctly points out) you can't have a functioning economy anyway.

Realtor showing a house for sale: here's the open concept kitchen, there's the big family room, oh don't worry about that pile of bodies in the corner...

So please, Six, tell us what YOUR April 1, 2020 action plan would be?

A. Do nothing and have 2.2 million deaths.
B. Continue current course and get 100-240k deaths.
C. Do ______ and get _______ deaths?

What is C?

[jhu72]

A good news story.

[6ftstick]

More people will die from hunger poverty and depression than this virus. 10's of millions unemployed—Thats not stupid. Thats fact.

Perhaps true in some scenarios, but not actionable information.

Leave the economy fully open and you get 2.2 million U.S. deaths from the virus. Total U.S. deaths in a year is 2.8 million. And at that level (as Bill Gates correctly points out) you can't have a functioning economy anyway.

Realtor showing a house for sale: here's the open concept kitchen, there's the big family room, oh don't worry about that pile of bodies in the corner...

So please, Six, tell us what YOUR plan would be?

Fed ex is currently running 350,000 employees. The trucking industry is running 10s of thousands in the supply chain.

Grocery store. Drug stores. In the midst of this crisis. Seems we could learn some lessons to apply to the other market segments.

Realtor showing a house—No Buyers.

[Peter Brown]

More people will die from hunger poverty and depression than this virus. 10's of millions unemployed—Thats not stupid. Thats fact.

Perhaps true in some scenarios. I myself am terrified of the economic fallout. But that isn't actionable information.

Leave the economy fully open and you get 2.2 million U.S. deaths from the virus. Total U.S. deaths in a year is 2.8 million. And at that level (as Bill Gates correctly points out) you can't have a functioning economy anyway.

Realtor showing a house for sale: here's the open concept kitchen, there's the big family room, oh don't worry about that pile of bodies in the corner...

So please, Six, tell us what YOUR plan would be?

hayzeus, these people who don't understand dynamic analysis.

Gait: I liked you in college, but your lack of faith in American knowledge and ingenuity is depressing.

Cures, vaccines, and serums are on the way. This ain't a linear line straight to the Mars of death...free thinking humans alter linear equations all the time.

[6ftstick]

A good news story.

for all tyou smart guys'

https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2002/0 ... low-grades

The Cornell researchers found that young people, ages 15 to 16, in homes where there is not always enough to eat, are five times more likely to attempt suicide, compared with well-fed adolescents.